The piece reflects on the 20 July 2026 Jantar Mantar student protest, comparing it with UK, Taiwan and South Africa movements to show how states mix coercion and concessions, and urges dialogue over force. Raghav Bahl asks: Will India choose engagement over intimidation?
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[00:00:00] Hello, this is Raghav's Take. It's been over a fortnight but I'm still coming to grips with the unusual enormity of what transpired on 20th July 2026 at Jantar Mantar at the political epicenter of India.
[00:00:17] No, it wasn't a violent revolutionary upsurge. And it wasn't an Indian spring aimed at a regime change. Instead it was a vigorous, visible assertion, a cry of anguish coated under a celebratory veneer delivered in the Gen Z grammar of protest music and
[00:00:52] satirical means. It breathed life back into India's commuter's democracy. Unfortunately, the state trotted out medieval instruments of coercion. Canes, nailed batons, water cannons, tear gas and pellets.
[00:01:10] And this was all done to quell what they called the mob. Eventually, as spirits remained uncrushed in battered young bodies,
[00:01:29] the state conceded. What happens now? Does history foretell next steps? Yes, it does because students' protests have a rich legacy to learn from. Some of them had eerily similar dynamics to what transpired at Jantar Mantar.
[00:01:53] In 2010, Britain's conservative government hiked tuition fees and cut education spending. Students pushed back with mounting aggression. Police were attacked. Parliament was threatened.
[00:02:10] And the ruling party's headquarters at Milbank was occupied and damaged. The state hit back with force. Besides the usual batons, a new weapon of containment or
[00:02:27] kettling was devised. Demonstrators were herded into small designated areas and not allowed to leave. It was a starvation or claustrophobic strategy to tie them out. It succeeded to an extent since the movement bled out. The British parliament thumbed its nose at the protesters by approving higher tuition fees.
[00:02:56] Now, elements of kettling were on display at Jantar Mantar Mantar 2 as the police tried to shut off neighbourhood markets, metro and internet connectivity and food supply from online vendors. But Indian providers proved to be more resourceful in getting through.
[00:03:18] A more evocative example comes from Taiwan's wild lily movement of 1990. Thousands of university students had laid siege to the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei.
[00:03:33] At that point in time, Taiwan had transitioned halfway to a democracy. There were some opposition parties and competitive politics but students were impatient to end the constitutional emergency and get on with the fully popular elections. The crowds swelled to over 20,000.
[00:03:57] President Lee Teng Hui had stark options. He could either order his troops to clear the square or extend an olive hand. Now, mercifully, he chose the latter. He invited a delegation of student leaders and promised them accelerated democratic reforms.
[00:04:20] He committed to convening a national political conference to implement direct elections for various legislatures. The students withdrew peacefully. And to Lee's credit, he stuck to his promise. A nagging question is troubling me now.
[00:04:44] What if Prime Minister Modi had followed President Lee Teng Hui's example? What if he had invited a delegation of cockroaches to meet him a week after the siege began?
[00:05:01] I know it's futile to delve into the what ifs of history. But I reckon one thing is certain. The tragedy of 20th July 2026 would have been preempted and deflected to a far less combative trajectory. Perhaps the most telling lesson comes from South Africa's fees must fall movement.
[00:05:28] Now, from 2015 onwards, students in South Africa started demanding free and what they called decolonized education. As the protests gathered pace, the government cancelled fee increases for 2016. Now, that proved to be a short-lived palliative because within a few months, students regrouped and launched a violent backlash.
[00:05:55] Arson and destruction followed. The state came down hard on the protesters using rubber bullets, stun grenades, tear gas and mass arrests. The assault forced students into submission and the movement withered away. But then, the South African government adopted grace in victory.
[00:06:23] It gave substantial concessions. By 2017, poor and working class students were given free higher education. Now, herein lies a critical what-next prompt for the Modi government. Chantar Mantar may have become peaceful.
[00:06:43] But that's an opportunity to seize. To engage with students and co-opt them into pushing through honest and transparent education reforms. Let me now, at this point, let me switch from the tactical, that's what we've been talking about, to the philosophical.
[00:07:05] Now, there's a raging debate on whether the state can or should be a total, completely benign peacenik. Or whether some coercion is inevitable, even necessary, to cut a quick path to peace and calm. That without an initial bout of coercive power, it becomes impossible to contain a movement,
[00:07:32] which then could spiral out of control, creating more mayhem and destruction than the first few police blows. The infamous Niccolò Machiavelli, he pulled no punches. He said a ruler should inspire fear while avoiding hatred. Now, thinkers like Thomas Hobbes are hawkish. He said, covenants without the sword are but words.
[00:08:01] Now, these two dictums, which have survived for 500 and 375 years respectively, that is, unless a state has the capacity to enforce its writ, any commitment or guarantee is meaningless. They also find resonance in the modern era.
[00:08:21] For instance, Ronald Reagan, in an unguarded moment while dealing with campus unrest in California in 1970, said, if it takes a bloodbath, let's get it over with. No more appeasement. Of course, he had to do much hand-wringing to distance himself from the literal meaning of bloodbath.
[00:08:47] Saying, you know, he said merely that it was a figure of speech. So, is coercive power, coercive force inevitable, necessary? Now, Nelson Mandela, you know, whose successor in South Africa had mitigated the fees must fall movement with a calibrated mix of coercion followed quickly by substantial concessions.
[00:09:15] Now, Mandela was a great advocate of essentially peaceful resolution. He said, no problem is so deep that it cannot be overcome through discussion and negotiation rather than force and violence. As usual, Mandela took his cues from Mahatma Gandhi.
[00:09:39] Now, here's what Gandhi said. This repression cannot be prolonged without further embittering the already bitter relations between the two peoples. And of course, from Martin Luther King who said, riots grow out of intolerable conditions. Now, this is a very wise counsel which is echoing from these sage words for the Modi government. Do not create intolerable conditions.
[00:10:09] Do not allow bitterness to harden. Do not believe the problem is too deep and irretrievable. Move beyond coercive power. Engage sensitively and honestly. Because every grievance is actually a mighty opportunity. That was Raghav's take today.