F1's back, baby! Rain will "unleash the Lion" | F1 2025 #DutchGP Preview

[00:00:00] Welcome along everyone. It's, what day is it? Is it Thursday? Is it Wednesday? You can't tell, right? Time is flying. But one thing we do know for sure is that we're running towards the Dutch Grand Prix this weekend, the home of Max Verstappen, a place where Landon Norris won last year. So continuing the Orange Brigade. And this time out, the big question is very, very clear, which McLaren is going to be on top? Because quite clearly, Kunal, we're heading into the final couple of races in Zandvoort's Formula One career.

[00:00:30] It's second leg, in a way. And we're now wondering who will take part and who will take advantage in this second leg of the Formula One Season 2. Which McLaren driver will it be? I like how you just said, which McLaren driver will it be? We've got 10 races to go, several sprints. But yes, it's going to be between the two McLaren drivers. That's what the title battle is going to be. Oscar Piastri just said the pressure is only going to increase.

[00:01:00] And Samuel, do we just take Oscar Piastri's mental strength for granted? Is it because Landon Norris's mental strength may or may not show up even though his talent does? What do you think? Yeah, I think we do. I think we really do. Even though Landon hasn't quite won championships quite like Oscar has in his junior career, Formula Three and Formula Two both.

[00:01:22] And we have seen more of that mental fortitude recently from Oscar. You can't take it for granted because it's a Formula One World Championship and you never really know. We thought Lewis was so mentally strong in 2007. But then came Shanghai and then that tested everything. And moments like this can and will come. Nine points of a difference between Oscar and Lando.

[00:01:44] So far, Oscar has been a more impressive driver in my mind. But the second half of the season, Kunal, Oscar's never quite experienced anything like this. And to be fair, neither has Lando. Well, that's absolutely right. Would he count last year though? Nah, I mean the media makes us count last year. But it wasn't a title battle for him. And you're right. I mean Oscar Piastri has been there for F3, F2.

[00:02:13] But he's also won the Grill the Grid Championship, second year in the running. So could he become the first driver in the history of the sport to win two titles in one season? Grill the Grid and the F1 Championship, right? I mean all these little championships that we have in Formula One. So that's that. The title clearly says, let's unleash the lion.

[00:02:38] Obviously, Max Verstappen, his home race. He's got several home races. Austria, Belgium. Austria is of course for Red Bull. Belgium. Now the Netherlands. Will he get a chance? It is supposed to be a wet race weekend. FIA has increased the pit lane speed limit from 60 to 70. It's a narrow lane. It's an old school circuit. We all love it. Which is why it's going away. Have you ever thought of old school circuits staying because they're old school circuits?

[00:03:07] It's almost certain like Lando Norris' mental strength. Will an old school circuit actually stay? We don't know. But the new ones, the Tilkay Dromes or whatever we call them, it's a certain they'll stay. Anyway, so my point was, will Max have a chance? It's a wet race. Two stopper expected. Pirelli is going one stop softer. And this sort of, you know, brings others into play purely because McLaren's main strength of managing rear tire temperatures in warm conditions.

[00:03:36] You know that if it stays, if it's wet, they don't really get to use that factor in their competitive advantage. No, for sure. For sure, they don't get to. And that might be something to watch for this weekend. Remember, it is forecasted to be rainy all throughout the weekend. And if it does stay dry, we do have a set softer tires.

[00:04:01] So that's where it's all going to be. And this circuit is one where you've got lots of bankings. It's a fast circuit. It's almost like a Hot Wheels track. That's the way I like to say it. And it is also Hot Wheels because it's all orange all around, which gives another reason for us to call it a Hot Wheels circuit. But it really is. Turn one has so many lines. Turn three flows a lot. And you can see drivers really gaining or losing time. So if it does rain, that will particularly be a spot to watch for.

[00:04:28] And then the slingshot dawn onto the final couple of corners, which means if you have softer tires, tire stress is something to keep in mind. The front lefts, in fact, both the fronts get worn down a lot. That's what Pirelli says in their official previews. And if it does not rain, it becomes a matter of preserving them a lot. Which means if it's hot, it could be a McLaren situation. But you never know, right? It's not a very rare heavy track according to what Pirelli says. So it's a tough situation to figure out what will happen.

[00:04:55] And on top of that, you've got the weather. And on top of that, you've also got to factor in that this place has a short pit lane, which has now been made even shorter, Kunal. That 60 kph limit that Zanfurt had for their pit lanes, gone. It's now 80 kph, just like any other track, which means more chaos in the pit lanes, which also means more facilitation of pit stops. Because now, theoretically, the penalty is less, right?

[00:05:20] Oh yeah. Pirelli wants to bring more strategic variation. So if we see more overtakes here, traditionally Zanfurt allows for overtaking opportunities, but we may also see some drivers doing a one-stop versus a two-stop. And then the tire, you know, advantage or disadvantage could lead to a few more overtakes than we might otherwise get, right? But Zanfurt, typically, we see an entry, like you said, in the slingshot last banked corner. We see overtakes into turn one.

[00:05:50] I love turn three and the multiple lines it offers. And if there's one driver I would like to watch on the opening lap through turn three, that's always Fernando Alonso. He's always been the most cheeky driver through that corner. So that's typically those two corners. There are chances. You know, there is a turn 11 and 12. It's a right-hander.

[00:06:14] Somebody might just sneak in there if you get that better exit through turn 10 before that. So very, very interesting circuit to go racing on. A little narrow. Well, that's what everyone's going to say. And that's why Formula One cars will, you know, drive through a single file, as we call it. Qualifying will be very, very crucial, as it always has been here before. But yeah, I think the weather is going to mix things up.

[00:06:43] And then so will race strategy, Samuel. Yeah. And largely the weather. It's such a driver's circuit. If it's raining, I really am not counting Fernando Alonso out. Remember, a couple of years ago when it was raining, Max Verstappen won. And believe you me, he was joined on the podium by Pierre Gasly and Fernando Alonso. That is unbelievable. But that's the kind of thing that can happen.

[00:07:08] And I remember Alonso and Verstappen, I think either of the two talking about a piece of insight about how a lot of drivers were taking a certain line through three. And in the middle of the race, I think it was Alonso who noticed that you could take an alternate line. So he started to go the shorter way out and gain more time. And these are the sort of things that will happen here because you've got so many different ways of taking the circuit. And Zandvo is slow. Zandvo has got a lot of elevations, lots of technical corners too.

[00:07:36] So I think it'll be a circuit where the best driver really can make a difference, which is where I think you cannot count out the drivers who have confidence in their machinery. A Lewis Hamilton, probably not. And Oscar and Lando, they should be up there. What do you make of George Russell-Kanal? Because with Mercedes, we sort of have no clue of where they really are. But if the conditions are cool, they usually tend to spring up. Absolutely.

[00:08:06] And I like how you put it that you need so much confidence in the car. Rain will miss the competitive sessions as Fai Anshu. Yes, we have the weather guard with us. Of course, it's very early. It's still 72 hours before something serious happens on track. Yes, we've got free practice tomorrow. But even if it's not raining through the competitive sessions, but it's cooled the conditions down, there's overcast conditions.

[00:08:33] These things will impact, these variables will impact the form factor, as we call it, in the sport. And I think McLaren will be there. You asked if Mercedes is somebody we should look up to. I think Mercedes as well, especially George Russell.

[00:08:54] But do you think George Russell is a little bummed that he wasn't invited on Toto Wolff's yacht when Leclerc and Max Verstappen actually were on Toto Wolff's yacht? At least we've seen pictures of Verstappen. I was reading rumors on social media when Leclerc was there. Do you think a Verstappen-Leclerc partnership at Mercedes could happen sometime in the future? That might be a bit tricky. Who do you push out then, right?

[00:09:23] That's assuming that Kimi does not do well. You've got to push out both, right? My God, no, no, no, no. Is George Russell a worse driver than Charles Leclerc? Gets you thinking sometimes. It really does. So let me add some context. Since Bahrain, and it wasn't the opening round this season, Leclerc has actually scored four points more than George Russell this season.

[00:09:51] So Leclerc is on 131 points. Russell's got 127 points. Max Verstappen has got 126 points. So while Russell has had great headline results, including a win in Canada, pole position, several podiums, etc. And Leclerc has a best-based finish of second in Monaco. Leclerc just had better average race results.

[00:10:17] And you remember there were those races where Mercedes went the wrong way with an upgrade and then they came back with that upgrade in Hungary. And then, bang, you know, Russell took podium again and the fastest lap. And Alice is saying, hello there, fellas. Rainy greetings from Sunfoot. Yes, Alice, you should just be our weather person this race weekend. So after qualifying, when we have a live stream, and just after the race as well, you're welcome to have us there.

[00:10:47] But what else have we got, Sunwell? Any more stats? Any more stories? I think one story which you have been tracking, which will come out in the media, is Alex Pallu. Yes. Suddenly, that's going to be the name. Everyone's going to be searching who is Alex Pallu. So Sunwell's done a lovely piece to camera for our YouTube channel, which should be live tomorrow. Our editors are working on it. But Alex Pallu as a replacement for whoever.

[00:11:16] I mean, as a savior of the number to seed in Red Bull. Let me put it as that. Yeah. When you say replacement, you actually go all the way back to Ricardo. There's too many names to take. Exactly. Exactly. And the big story that you kind of framed very well when we were doing that recording is that Red Bull are looking to an oval racer to do what a Perez, a Sunoda, a Lawson, a Gasly, and Albon all couldn't do.

[00:11:44] Which means that Red Bull has run out of options, which they kind of have. Or do they have enough options? And are they just protecting Isaac Hatcher? Which I think is the case here. I don't think you should get him up too early. So what do you do? You look at an experienced racer from outside of your network. Not impossible. You've done that before with Perez. And dare I say it's worked out with great success compared to all the other options. Alex Pallu would be an option like that.

[00:12:09] Although he's not done Formula 1, he has tested for McLaren as a part of their TPC program. He's also been a McLaren reserve driver. I rate him a lot. I really rate him a lot. Now, Kunal is normally the one asking me and saying, hey, it's IndyCar. IndyCar drivers are the ones who aspire to be in Formula 1. And it's true. But in this case, I think it's the one IndyCar driver that Formula 1 really is missing out on. Because clearly, Kunal, teams are going back to Formula 1 drivers of the past to make signings.

[00:12:37] But there are no real good options in the junior category. So you go outside the pool. And I have to say, this guy is the best outside that pool at that very moment. Four IndyCar championships in six years. Unbelievable record. So Amil does MotoGP commentary. He's hosting a MotoGP show. All we now need is an IndyCar podcast and a show and a commentary feed where he can speak about Alex Palou in case he doesn't actually make it to Formula 1.

[00:13:06] Because there are names that have been doing the rounds. Alex Palou was one of them. Pato Oward, like you said. Colton Hurta. From all the conversations about him getting a break in Formula 1, he's actually now rumored to be entering Formula 2 just so that he gets those super license points. And I just hope for his sake, he doesn't get humbled by those ferocious junior drivers in Formula 2. He will be. Look, he will be. In the first year, he will be.

[00:13:34] You are saying that an IndyCar driver will need two years in Formula 2. When you actually think he's great to get a jump straight into Formula 1. Yeah. Look, I think with a driver like that, you need patience. A little bit. And then you know you've got... And you see, I can see you smiling there because Jack Dood only got six races. That's very true. That's very true. I put you in a corner, my friend. But okay. Let's get you out of that corner. Who do you think... Should we get you out of the corner? You want to go on and on? Let's go for it. Let's go for it.

[00:14:04] Let's go for it. Okay. Okay. So, who do you think is getting pole position? Oh, no. I thought you were talking about the IndyCar corner there. No. I'll still die by that. I will still say that an IndyCar driver can make it work. I don't deny that. I don't deny that. But then that driver shouldn't be taking two years to succeed in Formula 1. Formula 2. Yes, be patient in Formula 1.

[00:14:33] Yes, there will be tracks you've not driven on. There's now a Formula 1 problem, isn't it, Kunal? The cars have gone too far. Because to speak about the quality of those drivers, Villeneuve did it. Montoya did it. Before that, Mario Andretti did it. Three very, very, very, very, very good drivers. And Michael Andretti was unlucky with a lot of retirements. He was also pretty competitive when he was there. No, not denying. I mean, if we get the next Montoya,

[00:15:03] I think Formula 1 is going to explode even more. But you're right. It will be tough. But pole position. Look, this conversation can go on forever. We should do a separate podcast on that. Pole in wet conditions around a circuit like Sandford. Do you think there is anyone else who could do it? You know, we all know who we're talking about, don't we? You're talking of Lewis Hamilton. Clearly. Come on. Are we?

[00:15:30] Well, Andres Teller actually said that he is thinking Ferrari is going to be very competitive in the second half of the season. What do you think? Why wouldn't it be Lewis Hamilton? Why does he say that? I would have said that he was stupid to have underestimated the challenge of the switch, which I think it's stupid in itself that you underestimated it. But that's Ferrari. But anyway, my point then to you is who do you think is getting pole?

[00:16:00] You said in the wet. There's one driver who you think will get pole. I believe you're talking of the driver who's had three pole positions in the last four races at Sandford. He's had four podiums, four front row starts, and he's converted that into three wins. And that's why we also still call this Unleash the Lion episode. Ferrari is bringing new floor this race too. Yes, they need something. They need everything. They need all the upgrades.

[00:16:28] And I like that teams are throwing upgrades at it. Because if it's in the pipeline, it's the simulator says that there could be gains on track. Like, it's actually better to use it. Because, you know, it's like, I love giving this analogy. Have you ever heard of a government making a profit? Well, no, because... Because the government has got funds so that it uses it up for the betterment of the public.

[00:16:55] So government making a profit is actually government not using the funds. So it's the same logic with Formula One teams. If you've got the funds and, you know, you'd rather use it than keep it in the bank. Because now the teams are positive cash flows. Now the team are positive businesses as well. So I'm glad they're bringing floors. I think the development cycle will continue. And there will be several learnings that they can take from this year to the next.

[00:17:24] Which is, you know, interaction of how tires and surfaces are and aerodynamics and setup and what drivers prefer. So it's not that suddenly there's a new car and just design it differently. And the laws of physics are different next year. So there will be upgrade cycles that will continue. As late as even Haas saying that they might just bring a new floor at their third home race in Cota. Which is several races away. I just hope it doesn't compromise next season. Honestly, that's my only, only hope.

[00:17:55] Especially with Ferrari. You know, this I think again is another media hype. Okay. No team will want, unless you are in the battle like 2021 where Red Bull said, you know what? Forget next season. We just have to go all out this season. Okay. No team. If you and I who are speakers in Formula One, commentators, know that, listen, let's not be so crazy that we compromise on what's next year.

[00:18:21] No team is actually thinking the same way that, let's compromise next year. Of course. So they will have these, you know, numbers from their simulations. And if there is a budget, if there is something, so they might not put something new in the pipeline. Okay. It's not that suddenly somebody is drawing a front wing today and bringing it now. These designs have been in the pipeline. They've been in testing. They've been in CFD and other simulations.

[00:18:44] And if their numbers say, let's bring this, they will bring it to the track because there is another thing because every time you bring a new iteration, Samuel, you're also intellectually challenging your team to make sure that you deliver upgrades that work. Right. There's two things. Deliver upgrades point one that work. And these are all people who love to be challenged. So yes, upgrades will continue as well. Let's look forward to what upgrades people are getting.

[00:19:15] No, but I've got to be like a mother, right? We've all got to be like a mother. Even though the mother knows that the child will get things done, she will still say, wait, I'll just, just get it done. So that's what you just hope. You hope that Ferrari don't have it compromising next year. We know, we know they won't want to do it. We know they're a normal racing team, but sometimes you've just got to put it out there that you just hope it does not. There's no real correlation. Still, you've got to hope. You've got to hope. But predictions, Kunal.

[00:19:44] Duck GP predictions. Who do you think gets the win this time? Let's, I think it's a tough one. But I think Oscar Piastri is going to be winning this. I know I sound like a broken tape recorder. I say Oscar Piastri for everything. But I think he's going to win it. Even if he's not entirely on pole position. And I think the two McLaren drivers have been very, very evenly matched.

[00:20:11] And maybe Lando Norris would have benefited from races happening, you know, instead of having a break. Because he did pick up some momentum in the last few races before the summer break as well. Because, you know, he won three out of the last four races. Austria win. Silverstone win. Belgium was second. Hungary was first. So, there have been four consecutive McLaren 1-2s.

[00:20:40] And I think maybe Sunfut will not be another 1-2. Which, Somil, brings me to another thing. McLaren could still be the first team in the history of the sport to actually score a thousand points in a calendar year. But for that, you need to maximize race results. Red Bull couldn't do it in the dominant parts of their season in 22-23. Because Checo Perez was not maximizing his race results in the second car. They went to about age 60 points.

[00:21:09] But can McLaren do that? And as a team, they would love that. That they have the highest possible score out there. So, I would probably take Max Verstappen for pole. Or maybe even a George Russell. Putting it in there. Okay? And Oscar Piastri winning it just because that McLaren is so much more superior in the race pace. Yeah. I think similar reasons for me pointed towards Lando. But, yeah.

[00:21:39] I think Lando here because momentum. Everything's been flowing in his side. I just hope that it kind of works out again now. So that we have more of a championship fight. Because only nine points is the difference between them. Imagine if there's a swing. Imagine if something happens. Imagine how fun the season will then become. So, I'm going Lando because entertainment. But it'll be a lot of fun. It'll be a fun weekend to watch for. And yeah, we're going to be back. We're going to be on the Hindi commentary booth for a fan called Kunal and I. It'll be a ton of fun.

[00:22:08] Before we go. Before we go. Just a couple of stats that I pulled out just for this episode. Fianchu saying McLaren has 36 points of a buffer to get 1,000 points. Yes. Manny has listed the hits and misses of all the drivers to have crossed the pond from America to Europe. And he's saying I'm inclined to put Palu on the hit list. Which is interesting because the misses include Michael Andretti, Alexandro Sonnardi and Sebastian Porte. I'm sure we all remember him as well.

[00:22:38] Well, yeah. That's true. Scott Speed as well. Anyway. But none of them were as good as this guy is. So, interesting stat. You know, there have been five pole sitters in the last several races. Leclerc is the most recent one. 19 days. Oscar Piastri hasn't been on pole since two months and some 30 odd days or something. So, almost three months if you were to just calculate that. Can you imagine?

[00:23:08] But he's still got the best high-edge average qualifying position for any driver. And, yeah. Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, George Russell all have a more recent pole position than Oscar Piastri. Which makes me want to ask you, when was the last time Oscar Piastri was in pole? Any guess? It's just for a wild guess. China? No, China's too far. I'll give you a hint.

[00:23:38] A European race, which typically was the start of the European season, but isn't anymore. Catalonia? Yes. Oh, wow. That's a while. That's a long while ago. That's a long while ago. Yes. Okay. And the last couple of stats from me, which are always interesting. So, Front Row has got eight out of the 12 last race wins.

[00:24:08] And we don't have to consider more than the last four because, you know, it's been in the 80s that we raced out here. Jim Clark actually has the most Dutch Grand Prix wins with four race wins. We always thought all along it was Max Verstappen, but it isn't. Especially if you consider 35 years of the Dutch Grand Prix. And very interestingly, driver number 33 stopped winning the Dutch Grand Prix after it crossed 33 years of race wins. So, 34th race was won by Lando Norris.

[00:24:37] Now, this is 35th. Let's hope he breaks that duck. But Max Verstappen does have the most pole positions. He's got three poles. Ferrari have the most wins here with eight wins. And then there are seven pole positions tied for maximum pole positions between Ferrari and Team Lotus. Long while ago. That's a long while ago. Yeah. So, that's pretty much it from us, I guess. Or do you have more?

[00:25:07] That should be it. That should be it. Yeah. Fun episode. Catch us. I have one more fun stat that I would like to read out. Okay. Since we're talking McLaren, unleashing the lion and so on. Okay. Max Verstappen. Sorry, I meant Oscar Piazzi. And Lando Norris. Okay. Have scored more points than any other constructor.

[00:25:38] Piazzi is 284. Norris is 275. Ferrari is actually at 260. Is that a fair way to look at how dominant they've been? And these are constructors' championship points. Ferrari is at 260. The two McLaren drivers are already ahead of the team in second place. It's crazy. It's crazy.

[00:26:10] That's it for me, I guess. At last? At last. Another one? Is there one? No, no, no. We're good. We're good. I've got a rush. I've got a rush. Let's go. Thank you for watching, guys. Bit of an odd timing this time. But thank you for all joining us. We will push out more and more content on our YouTube. So stay tuned on that. There's a magazine show coming. And I think you guys would really like that one. But, of course, general coverage continues. We will have the post-race review as well. Along with other coverage on the show. So make sure you're following us.

[00:26:40] Make sure you're updated. And we will catch you soon.