Market Unleashed: Rhys Williams Reveals Shocking CPI Insights on Buy Hold Sell
Buy Hold SellOctober 12, 202300:31:56

Market Unleashed: Rhys Williams Reveals Shocking CPI Insights on Buy Hold Sell

Join seasoned Wall Street traders Todd M. Schoenberger and Tobin Smith in a thought-provoking episode of "Buy Hold Sell" as they welcome Rhys Williams, Chief Strategist for Spouting Rock Asset Management. In this discussion, the panel delves into the current market dynamics and provides a sneak peek at the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) set for Thursday release. Gain valuable insights into how the inflation index could impact the markets and investment strategies. Plus, get a comprehensive overview of the upcoming earnings season, set in motion by banking giants Wells Fargo, Citibank, and JP Morgan on Friday. Don't miss this episode for a deep dive into the market analysis and crucial economic indicators. Buy Hold Sell is a CrossCheck Media production and executive produced by Todd M. Schoenberger. Social Connections: Please be sure to Subscribe to the CrossCheck Media Channel on YouTube. Twitter: @XCheckMedia, @BuyHoldSellTV, @TobinSmith, @TMSchoenberger, @SpoutingRock, @rhyswil1775 Instagram: @CrossCheckMedia #investing #news #Entertainment #WallStreet #research #markets #strategist #inflation Buy Hold Sell Rhys Williams interview Market insights Consumer Price Index preview Inflation index Earnings season kickoff Market dynamics Wall Street traders Todd M. Schoenberger Tobin Smith Inflation impact on markets Banking earnings Investment strategies Financial market analysis Economic indicators Market analysis and predictions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join seasoned Wall Street traders Todd M. Schoenberger and Tobin Smith in a thought-provoking episode of "Buy Hold Sell" as they welcome Rhys Williams, Chief Strategist for Spouting Rock Asset Management. In this discussion, the panel delves into the current market dynamics and provides a sneak peek at the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) set for Thursday release. Gain valuable insights into how the inflation index could impact the markets and investment strategies. Plus, get a comprehensive overview of the upcoming earnings season, set in motion by banking giants Wells Fargo, Citibank, and JP Morgan on Friday. Don't miss this episode for a deep dive into the market analysis and crucial economic indicators.


Buy Hold Sell is a CrossCheck Media production and executive produced by Todd M. Schoenberger.


Social Connections:

Please be sure to Subscribe to the CrossCheck Media Channel on YouTube.

Twitter@XCheckMedia@BuyHoldSellTV@TobinSmith@TMSchoenberger, @SpoutingRock, @rhyswil1775

Instagram@CrossCheckMedia


#investing #news #Entertainment #WallStreet #research #markets #strategist #inflation

  • Buy Hold Sell
  • Rhys Williams interview
  • Market insights
  • Consumer Price Index preview
  • Inflation index
  • Earnings season kickoff
  • Market dynamics
  • Wall Street traders
  • Todd M. Schoenberger
  • Tobin Smith
  • Inflation impact on markets
  • Banking earnings
  • Investment strategies
  • Financial market analysis
  • Economic indicators
  • Market analysis and predictions

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

[00:00:07] Stocks closed mostly higher today. Off the news from Hold Sell Prices, we actually saw Hold Sell Prices go up more than expected, but much less than what we saw last month.

[00:00:17] So the markets rallied a bit, we saw Treasury yields drop a little bit today, especially after that 1 o'clock 10-year Treasury auction. But what's going to happen tomorrow? We got the big CPI number and then earning season kicks off on Friday.

[00:00:31] But our guest today is very optimistic. He actually thinks we're going to have a big time fourth quarter rally. Welcome everyone to Buy Hold Sell. I am your trader Todd Schoenberger and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith.

[00:00:43] Out in sunny and I looks like it's very hot out there Toby. It's got to do with the tuna. Okay, sunny and warm today. You forgot to send me the forecast. But with us today we have Rhys Williams.

[00:00:55] He is the chief strategist from Spouting Rock Asset Management located in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. Rhys is coming to us from Miami, Florida though where we know it's nice and hot. And it's humid Todd. Remember that 95 degrees with 2% humidity feels like 85, okay?

[00:01:13] 95 with 100% humidity feels like 125. All right, so just let's get that through. There's your weather report right there ladies and gentlemen. Well Rhys welcome back to the program where you're so delayed to have you. Last time you were on Buy Hold Sell, you were very optimistic about the markets.

[00:01:27] Talk to you now, all fair it sounds like you're even more optimistic about the fourth quarter. So what do you have to say about it? Well, considering what happened in September you had a real market, not a crash, but you had a real market fall.

[00:01:42] And that was really just driven by interest rates going up so much. And if interest rates hadn't have rallied so much based on a little bit of FedSpeak or maybe too much FedSpeak. You know, I think the September quarter swoon wouldn't have been so bad.

[00:01:55] But given that entry point now as we enter the fourth quarter it's typically a seasonally stronger period. I also noticed that I think it was Oppenheimer did a very interesting graph on the third year of a presidential cycle

[00:02:09] that the fourth quarter virtually always rallied since 1980. I guess 1983 was the first year that happened. Anyway, my point being, and that's obviously Republican presidents, Democratic presidents, good economies, bad economies.

[00:02:22] And so I think a lot of things are developing and certainly the action in the market in the first week or so of October is positive. We had a lot of sort of bad news that we've sort of shrugged off.

[00:02:34] So I think that's encouraging. And that plus also the hedge funds are very, very net short but have limited net long. So I think there's a lot of buying capacity if things start to move up.

[00:02:44] Now you're right about that. Well, we had Sam Stovall on the show and he actually said that going back, I think it was 50 years. If you go back when the fourth quarter of a pre-election year, we actually saw stocks rally an average of 5.7%.

[00:02:57] So and it was 100% accurate. It was incredible. However, now we have what? Two wars going on. We have a lot of Saber rattling with China and Taiwan right now.

[00:03:08] You have a US economy where the consumer is, well, I don't know if they keep spending, but we keep getting words that word and messages that the consumer is becoming quite strapped right now, especially since they can't access credit.

[00:03:21] So it makes you wonder what is going to happen for the rest of the year. But Toby, what do you think? I mean, you're kind of optimistic. You're back and forth saying, hey, look, you know what, I think this could be a good thing.

[00:03:32] But maybe we have to look at the headwinds. Well, I won't bore you with my macro numbers because, you know, I have a very limited skill set, but Math is one of those skill sets.

[00:03:43] And when you look at 76% of discretionary spending in the top 20% of households by income, that's where the margin is. Yes, the people who bought the $75,000 F 150s with 14% interest rates are puking them up right now.

[00:04:02] Matter of fact, you can't hire enough repo people, according to my friends in the auto business, right?

[00:04:07] But that is not our economy at the our economy at the service level, remember, 76% service and then at discretionary spending, which is at the margin is the top 20% of households American and work and work it can

[00:04:21] be, but at the bottom level of we have, you know, as I say, we got 96 million people getting a monthly pension plan so on and so forth. So it's going to get softer.

[00:04:29] But the other issue is there's 63 counties out of 300 and there's three, excuse me, 3300 counties in the United States that account for 75% of the GDP. Okay.

[00:04:40] So don't send me to hate mail if you don't live in one of those counties because if you have the next 15 counties, it counts for 81% of the GDP.

[00:04:48] If you're going to do the math, what counts is those 82 counties and some of those other counties could go to zero and we would still not have recession.

[00:04:56] But that's the narrative, you know, that I know people who don't do math, I would say this, the other thing is what I love is there's now like five different narratives in the stock market right we obviously we got that magnificent seven if you add the next five,

[00:05:09] that means we have $782 billion of cash sitting on balance sheets that are getting like 5%. So they're gonna boost in their earnings.

[00:05:17] I'm to know you know this week, simply from the freaking monthly or daily dividends are getting out of their corporate, you know, money market fund right so so even if the dollar was up.

[00:05:26] It's being offset by those drinks. The second one I love though, I don't know if I love it is the ozimbic catastrophe.

[00:05:34] Who, who knew that if you know full disclosure I've been an investor in them a long time. I've been a user of ozimbic. I freaking love it I think it's fantastic.

[00:05:44] But great. Yeah, but just let me say there's no question. If you're up to dinner with somebody or somebody's over your house or whatever. And they say, you know, Reesi, I like half what I used to just follow up and say so how long you've been on the vitamin up.

[00:05:59] And when Walmart came out, and the CFO says, you know, it's shocking but we're selling a lot less shitty food than we used to. And Pepsi comes out and then it goes down the line the list of people who sell crappy food.

[00:06:15] The actual sales are in some companies have been crushed by and that's only with 27 28 million people on ozimbic in the United States.

[00:06:25] Yeah, 50 a 70 million dollar excuse me people. The country will be broke because it costs $1000 a month to somebody. Yeah, the corporations are now coming out and saying, Oh, by the way, our health insurance premiums are up 14%.

[00:06:40] So there's some very strong narratives. We have, you know, five sub sectors that we have been making a crap ton of money research a scientific term. And, you know, we're up 28%. Actually 32% number right now.

[00:06:53] And that includes dividends because Rees, I'm with you on dividend when when the world's got 25 prospects all at the same time. Yeah, we have we have tankers that are 100% sold out for the next two years that are paying us 25% dividends.

[00:07:08] I'll take that all day long and just reinvest the dividends and that's how we're making money.

[00:07:13] That's good stuff. Well, Rees, you're you've boundage a couple of portfolios over at spouting rock and what are you telling your clients these days? I mean it sounds like you're optimistic but I mean is it you're looking at a 60 40 portfolio balance or you think it's something a little bit heavier on the equity side.

[00:07:29] So from right here 60 40 makes a lot of sense because I'm pretty optimistic that bonds are going to be your friend or at least not your enemy like it, like they were in September.

[00:07:38] And, and certainly I think the risk isn't that the economy accelerates in 2024 the risk is, you know, frankly it decelerates enough to have some sort of mild recession.

[00:07:47] So I think I think having at least some bonds is interesting. I think if you want to be contrarian in the stock market, some of the bond proxy stocks have been slaughtered. I mean Reeds, look at even the non-office Reeds that have pretty good underlying fundamentals like

[00:08:02] industrials and towers and and apartments. I mean those. Utilities, Rees. How about utilities? The windows and orphans got to be just like storming Merrill Lynch right now.

[00:08:14] The next energy was I was taking your breath away. But it's, I mean getting back to your zippin comments the market is gone. It's like candlepin bowling every day. I mean, look what's happened to the some of these healthcare stocks that even have some

[00:08:27] tangential relationship with with with your vitamin O. I mean it is. You can use it by the way using at the office okay.

[00:08:37] I got that tucked away there. But no seriously, it's amazing how I mean Baxter down 7%. I mean it's just been Dexcom one of the great companies and really treats more type one diabetes which isn't really impacted by weight loss.

[00:08:56] You know that stocks that have come from like 120 to 70 in in since since will go be in and is empty became household names. Anyway, just an example there's a I mean it just it's it's there they're just falling knives right now I'm not seeing go out and buy a bunch of them today, but you should

[00:09:11] definitely have some on your screen because I mean the valuations now are pretty compelling and in my view the healthcare.

[00:09:18] I mean healthcare utilization was actually, you know, pretty good in the third quarter. I think the earnings reports are going to be fine. You know just as by the way constellation brands and Pepsi Cola had pretty good things to say people still like to drink beer and they like to eat

[00:09:32] Yeah, well I'll add I'll add one more to the pile there so I was a big fan of inspire inspire is a company when the you know you have to wear a mask is your story you have whatever that thing is they the manufacturer had serious problems and they had to recall all these

[00:09:47] things and so inspire and put something out I have a friend who makes a very nice living putting these in for $42,000 per patient by the way.

[00:09:58] And all of a sudden you don't have to wear the mask all of a sudden you're not you know doing this horrible snoring and all that stuff that sucks down 40%.

[00:10:06] And the idea is there's less people, you know at the margin that are going to be using inspire and or reimbursements going to go down. That's another vitamin oh, you know, victim that I that one I never saw come.

[00:10:21] Yeah, well I think it's, I think it's funny on the on the Walmart thing that the they're going to blame a drug for the fact that people aren't eating as many Doritos I mean I, you know maybe it's the fact that a bag of Doritos costs 550 right now it's actually

[00:10:34] wasn't like it used to be years ago but that's the issue Todd the issue Todd is they measured the shopping cart and the shopping cart sales per shopping cart are down about 6.5%.

[00:10:45] And then if you go where that 6.5% has most of it's in the junk food because if you're only eating half the amount of Doritos that you see, you just you're not replacing them, you know as much as some people appear to be eating them weekly or getting new bags weekly,

[00:10:58] it's the shopping cart size. Now I'm waiting for the one where people are losing weight and then the clothing stores are doing better because people are running out to get new clothes.

[00:11:09] There you go that's a that's a great idea who knows well listen let's leave it on this block right now because coming up after the break, we want to talk to Reese a little bit more about the upcoming

[00:11:19] season which kicks off on Friday with the big financials with Citigroup we have Wells Fargo and JP Morgan and I want to get his insights on that and also maybe some sectors to actually look at and maybe others to stay away from.

[00:11:32] But we're with today we're with Reese Williams, she's a cheese strategist and spouting rock asset management and we'll be right back after the break. Please stay with us.

[00:11:55] I'm Jim Maruz a top 10 banking influencer and host of the podcast Banking Transform where we dive deeply into the rapidly evolving world of banking and financial technology.

[00:12:06] Join me as I interview industry experts, thought leaders and innovators as they unravel the latest banking trends disruptions and game changing technologies reshaping the world of finance redefine your understanding the banking ecosystem. Subscribe now to Banking Transform available wherever you get your podcasts and now available on YouTube.

[00:12:52] If you agree that beer tastes better in the country because squirrels can't talk. Learn more at head for the hills dot ca.

[00:13:24] Also being accessible for the average listener to learn about this industry. Every episode features a new guest including congressional leaders, senior military officials, leading policy analysts and other experts come aboard and listen wherever you get your podcast or watch on the American Maritime

[00:14:20] So as we'll see that's definitely a market improvement for inflation and obviously with with the Fed tightening and hiking rates, which leads us actually into earnings season which kicks off on Friday with three big financial firms.

[00:14:34] You have Citigroup Wells Fargo and you have JP Morgan all releasing earnings but I have to tell you Reese, I'm not so sure I'm not optimistic on the financial sector.

[00:14:44] I don't know how you feel, but with this higher interest rates that means a lot more money being paid for deposits but what do you think. Yeah I think that net interest margins are in general not going to be very good.

[00:14:54] I think everybody's figured out that banks get this intermediated faster and then you think about what if banks really lend money for they ran money for commercial real estate projects and because interest rates have grown up so much, they don't pencil out anymore.

[00:15:07] I think they got hurt in two ways so you know we're not super optimistic about bank earnings.

[00:15:12] Well I'm going to be very interested to see because you know the Fed did such a good job in managing Silicon Valley bank risk that I'm really interested to see when Citibank even Jamie the God JP Morgan, when they show how many hundreds of billions of dollars they're underwater on their portfolios that they didn't hedge because God knows why and because they're

[00:15:35] too big to fail bank they somehow get this you know leniency that yeah you can be upside I think it's that JP Morgan $805 billion on your bond portfolio and you don't have to mark that to market if you had to mark to market which the old days let me tell you in the old days that's what we had to do.

[00:15:50] I believe the correct term is shit out of luck here and Citibank is horrific they've been horrific for two years so I'm with you there I'm actually short Citibank and a couple of banks just with options because they're driving me nuts.

[00:16:06] Well they've been really focused actually over the last decade on consumer credit and with higher rates right now people are tapped out that just can't access credit that's always been the one issue it's been their Achilles heel and for some reason they've stuck with that game plan but I think they're going to be out of the three.

[00:16:22] They may be the biggest disappointment on Friday but we'll see but but what about tech earnings you have Tesla coming out on the 18th week after that we have Apple we have Microsoft we just got a breaking news report today while we're on the air that the IRS is now given a bill to Microsoft saying they owe another $29 billion in taxes I mean that'll ruin your day.

[00:16:47] I'm wrong zero I thought it was 280 million right yeah yeah I know somebody put the desk for Microsoft 29 billion is not chump change.

[00:16:57] Yeah yeah that's right but what's your take on the overall earnings season because this quarter and people we've had on have actually been for the most part optimistic thinking we're going to hit that 10% earnings growth for the quarter are you in the same boat with a with a lot of the bulls that are out there.

[00:17:16] Well to your point I mean big tech is like 40% of the market and and so if they're okay then the market will be the S&P earnings will be okay and I anticipate by large they should be okay more on the cost side I'm not looking for big revenue surprises from big tech but I think they've been managing very conservatively plus they're getting the benefit of the higher interest rates on their cash balances etc buying back some stock so I expect it will be at least in line maybe slightly better for most of big tech.

[00:17:47] I don't think it's surprising that and recent those this one when I ran a mutual fund was not like a hedge fund I couldn't be in cash in my mutual funds and so when you're like crawled up in a ball in the corner second your thumb because the world is going to kaka or other companies you see all these various risk factors I would be buying the now the significant magnificent 10 simply because that was the same harbor.

[00:18:11] I mean the idea that utilities used to you know you used to put the go to the playbook in the old days.

[00:18:16] All right by some utilities are great to go up and really they're the only guys on ship that the market is hanging on these 10 because I include Salesforce and I included a couple other ones in that you know magnificent 10 or terrific 10 I call them that if there's some you know chinks in that armor then we're going to have problems but the fact of matter is again just doing like simple math there's there's really no chinks in the armor when you're getting that much cash flow out of your out of your cash and.

[00:18:41] Also there you know subscription base it's not like they have to go like and sell another 20 new things today that's the best business model in the history of planet which always drives me crazy when we compare the 1960s and 70s to you know this decade there were no subscription software business for Christ sake IBM was like.

[00:18:58] It wasn't even a subscription and now we've got we've got 45 or 55% how you do it of the entire S&P 500 on a subscription base zero incremental cost for new sale business model.

[00:19:10] You just can't compare the business models and that's why I think you know that these guys are the same harbor and they're going to continue well and oh by the way everybody thinks that like Nvidia is selling at 125 you know market cap or excuse me price multiple.

[00:19:23] That's bullshit if you take the actual earn it and you go forward before they sell them for 24 PE I just did the math today so you know to say that you know the Magnificent seven are just wildly over value during a little premium to the S&P but if you take it video out there you know for 5% more than S&P and they're locked in gross so that's why I'm.

[00:19:46] I'm getting back to a nifty 50 back in 72 73 those stocks sold at 60 70 80 PE's and had 50% earning growth.

[00:19:55] I Jerry side the enterprise fund manager who in 1969 was up 125% I know that because I was at a family gathering and he was a guest there and he showed me he pulled a check out and he said it was a check for trust me 125,918 or 918.

[00:20:13] That was first off the biggest check I'd ever seen in my life.

[00:20:15] Number two I said Jerry what did you do do you do did you sell your business is no I run the enterprise but this was my bonus and two years later or three years later I was the finance major in college this I like this.

[00:20:27] You know, and he was the first one to tell you that he was just writing the way and there was such a limited number of companies that were on that way that you know better than anybody they're going to buy didn't you know had some sort Bible we didn't even have algorithmic traders back then these are actually even things who had to go you know buy more buy more buy more because it was a big deal.

[00:20:45] If I don't buy that stuff. I'm going to get crushed on my return for the year which means I'm going to lose money, I'm going to lose money to man and I think we're in that stream to your point.

[00:20:55] We're in the nifty 10 and if you don't have those in your portfolio, you by definition are you know trailing us to be 500 and chimpanzee can you know can beat the, the, that's the P 500 if you just have to stay more strongly and those until it pops.

[00:21:12] With a nifty 10 what went to caught the sexy 10 I like that's how we're going to coin it here by all so terrific.

[00:21:19] There you go. So Reese, let's talk a little bit about the energy sector we had to run up an oil and now today we did see West Texas Intermediate drop a little bit mainly the lot of action over the past couple of trading days as a result of the war in Israel.

[00:21:34] But, but and then we had a big merger today Exxon $60 billion to overpine divide pioneer in an all stock deal. That's incredible guys I mean think about it.

[00:21:46] You have you guys remember the RJ Reynolds Nabisco merger was 20 billion that was such a big deal. This is $60 billion and they're they're clearly the kings of the obviously cornering the market in that area of Texas and New Mexico.

[00:22:03] But what's your take on the oil sector right now Reese we had Fernando Valley on at Bloomberg and he actually has an $80 price target on West Texas, Texas Intermediate by the year end.

[00:22:13] But what do you think for that sector. I think having some exposure energy makes a ton of sense and I think the Exxon merger was basically Scott Sheffield who was the CEO.

[00:22:22] He wanted he wanted Exxon paper because I think it had more than that than that amount of money if he really wanted to do a sale but he decided that you know over the long term Exxon would be a good steward of his capital and I think that's really that was really it

[00:22:37] more than anything because he's retiring. But yeah I think that's an encouraging merger and I mean pioneers only sort of back to where it was in August it's not it was not a big premium.

[00:22:49] So I think I think the market reaction was just because arbitrage driven driving Exxon down but I think people over time will look at this merger more favorable. Yeah, I'm curious.

[00:23:01] And since we're talking about the good old days, I believe that when they bought mobile they paid $11 a barrel for their exist and the price oil was 11 when when they did that acquisition. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:23:14] Yeah, so so that was probably the greatest thing and that was only like $40 billion and that was like you know, the one $40 billion really meant something. They're going to roll this up.

[00:23:23] You know, I my wife's a petroleum geologist for God's sake I have all these crazy petroleum geologists friends who all work for you know midsize to majors and they're just talking about how five years ago six years ago it was drill MF for drill

[00:23:37] you got to we get more as soon as we get a dollar in or put the dollar into the fracking etc. And they would say hey wait a minute you know the depletion ratio on these fracking wells is a lot faster than those old wells you old people used to

[00:23:49] say do it and then you know 2014 2015 oops so that has left an indelible impression Todd on on management now and you know I love the idea of people saying well it's it's not an ESG thing if they didn't buy that then

[00:24:04] Sharon was going to buy somebody else is going to buy it. It's a great asset. They'll get all sorts of efficiencies and the entire industry is rolling up because guess what the money managers want them to a buy back stock be paid high dividends and see not waste our fricking money again and

[00:24:22] and they got the message from yeah and that the single largest shareholder of Exxon stock is the teachers union in this country. So when you start so everybody starts complaining just think that the fifth grade teacher at the peak of Kansas driving around in a Honda is also an investor in a company

[00:24:37] so you definitely want to applaud them so I'm sure they're all aware of that Todd I'm sure there you go so re so the finally though we'll close out the show but I have to ask you what are you telling your clients now because I know you manage a couple portfolios you have any particular companies

[00:24:54] that you're focused on companies help us sector something you know we want to give the audience as we go into the end of the year. So I think we talked about big tech I'd be overweight big tech I totally agree with you guys there either it goes up because there's the fourth

[00:25:07] rally I expect or the opera form if if we're all wrong in the most way so I think that I think either way it's that they're going to be a successful investment. I'm sort of intrigued by some of these beaten up reads because I'm also fairly optimistic that the bond yields are close to a peak

[00:25:24] and people really hate them and to your point utilities have become a dirty word I guess because they have solar energy exposure some of them. And I mean I still you know what happened the next energy takes my breath away so

[00:25:37] Florida light and power let's go back to old days right.

[00:25:40] FPNL I mean it's amazing. So, so my guess my point is that that that reads at least if it's an underlying asset, there's going to be a lot fewer projects penciling out with his current interest rate structure. So I think that supply that you're seeing right now is going to be diminishing as we go into

[00:25:59] 2024 and 2025. And these stocks have been slaughtered the last two years. So I and they have good dividends to your point so I think that that would be sort of my contrary in play. And then like I said I think you should have a list of healthcare stocks, maybe the anti as them pick stocks, because

[00:26:17] they've been so slaughtered that it's too early to buy because every time there's a new press release about a study, they go down 5%. But you should have that on on on your list because I do think at some point, these things are so oversold and

[00:26:31] they're getting their use. They're getting their use. They're getting their use and people are getting their use, they're getting their use up, people are getting their needs replaced, they're getting their backs done, they're getting lots of things are being are happening and these stocks are just dog do right now.

[00:26:45] So I think that AI picks and shovels stocks that we own. Many are SMC eyes but a big winner for us are the ones who build the data, you know, essentially you call them and you say, I need 25 new data centers with 652 and video chips great you want those tomorrow.

[00:27:02] I mean, I was visiting the company. If you go up the freeway from San Jose up every damn building on that freeway says SMC I ought to be it is truly amazing but the AI spending has not been we had the mania. We sold them and we, you know, we're patient bottom back.

[00:27:20] Two things one is AMD now has a you know a GPU that's going to be coming out that it that looks just as good and has a great software connection to the Nvidia CUDA software right there's other ways to play that that that play is not going away every CEO I talked to, you know, like research does anybody

[00:27:36] know what you're doing for what are you doing for AI and they says, well I don't exactly know but I hired 12 people to tell me what I should be doing. And I know we're spending a shift ton of money to get there because I don't want to be the you know the person who gets fired because I got outflanked on AI and the productivity.

[00:27:54] One of our portfolio companies that I can't speak about because it's like under $500 million they just did a deal for their AI in logistics that cut the largest of just a company in the world, cut their labor costs 30%. So CBS just put $25 million in the outfitting just 10 of their

[00:28:13] distribution sites, because you can't compete if the biggest guy in the world has 30% lower labor costs a be labor cost your highest part of logistics see logistics is 9% of the American GDP.

[00:28:26] Then you better freaking figure out how what those guys are doing and do it as well. That is not a trend. That is a sea change. My company's called Transformity Research we look at best curve, you know, transformations and we look at that essentially the inflections.

[00:28:42] Well the inflection has happened. And you can buy the picks and shovels at reasonable prices I added Nvidia today.

[00:28:50] And, but AMD were very strong and TS, you know, semi semiconductor because you can't afford not to do it and then symbiotic. We just added a couple weeks ago, because of the robotics because of this logistics deal.

[00:29:03] There is money to be made there's money made in uranium for crying out loud.

[00:29:07] I'm just looking at our list here. If you don't have 6% of your portfolio to make the non treacherous 10 that you're going to be behind the market and that's why the seasonality work because we get down to the end of October, at least in the fun world, you got to like settle up right

[00:29:23] and you're you know so by October 31. If I don't own all those stocks on my print on November 15. I'm gonna say well no wonder he's a schmuck he didn't have any of the right stocks and then I can and I can do the tax loss selling to minimize taxes.

[00:29:37] So I mean Reese knows this but you got to do a lot of work October goes up because money management particularly a big funds and big mutual funds it's a pain in the ass.

[00:29:46] Yeah, you're switching stocks out to get you know tax benefits and and then you get to November and the stuff you sold if you had to trim you want you want to buy back if you liked it blah blah blah.

[00:29:57] Yeah, that's good. That's good I like it I like it. Well we're going to close it out on that. Let's close out with Bruce. Did you have one final word there.

[00:30:06] I said when I just wanted to agree that I think the biggest area for beaten raise in tech is AI and I saw it. I agree that story is not over, even though even though it's not cheap. It's not over.

[00:30:17] Oh, I agree with that. It's definitely not over there's a lot of respect. He's a smart dude. Okay, Reese is great Reese Reese always he says it all he doesn't leave anything out there and the audience loves him as well so that's that's a win win as far as I'm concerned so let's close out the show there so Reese Williams thank you so much for joining us today.

[00:30:36] He is the chief strategist server at spouting rock asset management. Go to spouting rock com for more information and and he's there headquarter right there and bring more Pennsylvania which is the hotbed of Pennsylvania lacrosse to be I just want to point that out. Oh my lord.

[00:30:51] This you know we've done like 138 of these shows. He has worked the word lacrosse to everyone in the damn show. I don't know. Hey, it's a Baltimore guy. What can you say?

[00:31:00] I know he's bottom up. He's bottom up. I know and I love lacrosse by the way. You know, it's just that I have a real life. All right.

[00:31:08] That's awesome. So Reese thanks again for joining us today on buy hope so and I definitely want to have you back and and definitely sometimes soon especially during this fourth quarter period that'd be great so so let me ask you.

[00:31:21] Williams and Tobin Smith. I am Todd Schoenberger. Thank you once again for joining us so by hold sell. We took for tomorrow show. Keep it here. We got Christina Hooper. She is the chief market strategist chief equity strategist over at Invesco will be joining us as our feature guest.

[00:31:37] So you definitely want to check out by hold sell tomorrow for that. So thanks again for joining us. We'll catch you next time. Take care. Bye. Hold sell brought to you by cross check management. Don't believe everything you read.