Danielle Shay Ignites Financial Flames: 'Heroes to Zeros' Shockwave on Buy Hold Sell

[00:00:00] The streak is over, the S&P 500 finally dropped today after remarks to Federal Chairman Jerome

[00:00:10] Powell when he came out and said, yeah, they're not afraid to raise rates again.

[00:00:15] Actually, they might do it at the next meeting, but everyone wants to know, are we going to

[00:00:19] call his bluff?

[00:00:21] Welcome everyone to Buy Hold So.

[00:00:22] I am your trader Todd Schoenberger and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith, tomorrow, but if we can't see a rally tomorrow and if we get a gap down overnight, which I think is pretty possible, especially given the way that we sold off on high volume ended up the day they're down on the lows, then this rally is probably going to be over for now until we can get another catalyst to send that short squeeze moving. Okay, Daniel, I, you know, we've talked for the last couple of

[00:01:41] weeks. Again, I'm so old school, I still have like newspapers,

[00:02:42] And all of a sudden everybody who had to sell what you say

[00:02:50] Daniel had already sold and we just needed one little you know pullback from the 5% 10 year down to 4.8 and

[00:02:54] Right, but does it seem like we went through this once before

[00:02:59] During this entire tightening cycle where you had Wall Street traders that were actually thinking

[00:03:01] Okay, things are gonna ease up here They'll cause for a while and then perhaps we could start talking about rate cuts should we have sold into the strength or do you think maybe it's still a time to buy on the weakness? So, the way that I trade is I take everything from one decision to the next and when you're looking at the NASDAQ, we're sitting up just directly underneath this key area of resistance and it was so, so close to breaking through. We were right there. We had

[00:04:22] Microsoft coming right up to that new all-time high. Didn't

[00:04:26] quite make it. You had Broadcom that made the new high today had some cold water thrown on it today. Daniel, how do you, when you look at, now you just look at the whole NDS, the whole NASDAQ, but how do you then sort of factor in the magnificent seven? Because, you know, there's still 27, excuse me, there's still 85% of all the gains in the S&P 500 or the QQP. But how do you, do you look at those as a different,

[00:05:41] you know, like a different island

[00:05:42] in the middle of stormy seas?

[00:05:44] Oh, definitely.

[00:05:45] Just a mixed metaphor.

[00:05:46] Oh yeah, and so for me as an options trader,

[00:05:48] I mean, those are the stocks that are going higher or lower, but I still think that the majority of the Magnificent Seven are carrying the NASDAQ higher. Wow, that's good to know, because otherwise we'd be up that creek without a paddle. The other thing, Danielle, I'm curious about is,

[00:07:01] as sectors, do you also follow sectors as much as stocks?

[00:07:04] I do, and I always do top-down sector analysis, to bring in premium or bring in a credit to your account, which is amazing because that means you don't have to spend any money. And basically if you're right, then you get to keep the money at the end of the day. If you sell a credit and you're wrong, then you have to buy it back for a higher cost, which is not ideal, but that's just how it works. So-

[00:08:20] It's risk management for you.

[00:08:21] And yeah, we do a lot of spread trades on stocks

[00:08:25] that we sort of the same thing that we understand. market. I totally I totally get I'm gonna give you one one idea though. We've been very long. LPG liquefied petroleum gas. The reason is is for a variety of reasons, but it's really starting with the fact that the Panama Canal is only allowing 20 ships through per day used to be 120. So what's happened is these LPG tankers have to go like around the Cape of Good

[00:09:41] Hope or they have to go Suez Canal just so they've added like don't tell me what they do. My point is that underneath the market, there's the transformational events, there's this S-curbs of demand or pricing power that happen. And those are fun too. I think your cameraman is actually trying to give us the look as if you're on one of these tankers because it's gone up and down.

[00:11:01] Danielle, do you track the energy sector at all?

[00:11:05] Because oil with it up natural gas, we are short USO,

[00:13:22] Widowmaker. Remember Eric Boling, Todd? Oh yeah.

[00:13:23] Yeah, Eric had like six seats at the NYMEX back in the day.

[00:13:29] That was where you traded commodities, Daniel, because I know it was sold.

[00:13:33] It was closed after you were born.

[00:13:35] But the whole thing was was that, you know, you could be out having a cigarette at like

[00:13:40] two o'clock.

[00:13:41] All of a sudden, this storm moves in and now your long position of like 80 to one leverage retail. I mean do we really need to go there? I did tell her that's something we will be talking about so I know she's got some good quality high quality thoughts for the audience and it's going to be an exceptional conversation. So with us today we have Danielle Shea she is the vice president of options at Simpler Trading Evolving regulations, technology enhancements, and the meteoric rise in the number of players makes this sector the fastest growing and most intriguing in the world. Unlock the business secrets from many of the industry's most recognizable C-suite executives, including famous odds makers and influencers. Every episode of Double Down with Breslow is packed with insider tips, deeply skilled analysis,

[00:16:24] and in-depth discussions.

[00:16:25] Don't miss out on the ultimate resource Is this the start of bear market or are we still going to maybe it's just start with? But who knows? We'll see. But we have the expert among experts with us today, Danielle Shays. She is the VP of options over at Simpler Trading. Danielle was doing a little bit of research on you.

[00:17:41] I see you have this wonderful newsletter that goes out to investors.

[00:17:44] How can the audience sign up for this?

[00:17:46] That's right.

[00:17:47] You can find me on retail sector, Danielle. What do you think as far as some of these big names, Lowe's, Home Depot,

[00:19:01] Target, what should investors stay away from?

[00:19:04] What should they be considering for their portfolios?

[00:20:05] people who are still holding the stock or saying, Oh my God, it's going to be reporting earnings. It might fall 20%. Maybe I should get out before reports. And so you have trades

[00:20:11] that you can do, you know, before earnings as you have those investors bailing. Then

[00:20:16] you also have the opportunity to trade the earnings report. If you so choose and say,

[00:20:21] you know what, this thing might get cre think it looks great. I just have a problem buying more of it at this level. So, you know, I think it could probably go up into, let's see what my next price target on this thing would be 170, 175.

[00:21:40] So, you know, you still have some upside there.

[00:21:43] But I certainly-

[00:21:44] Daniel though, tell our audience,

[00:21:45] because what you're saying we've had a lot of negativity surrounding the housing market. And I think that, you know, overall, both of these companies are very strong. And if you look at the longer term chart

[00:23:00] patterns on Lowe's and Home Depot, you've got a monthly

[00:23:03] chart, you've got a weekly chart, they went up, they peek,

[00:23:06] they pulled back, they're my second, I'm now on my second pandemic. So, so I think that's the other side of things is that you have to say how much of the pandemic pull forward of sales

[00:24:22] can be because that's what I would beassed out of the ground without these things, right? The stock went from $14 to $3, and it was paying a $2.05 dividend, which they'd never not paid come hell or high water. That was hard to get people to jump in. But what we did was that we had them sell, put options.

[00:25:41] So they had to put the stock to them

[00:25:43] and buy some incrementally.

[00:25:44] And that stock today still pays $2 a dividend, inside their house for, you know, a year and a half. Yeah, tired as shit. I replaced more stuff. I just couldn't stand to look at it again. Right. And I fixed the window and I you know, I changed it. But that a lot of that demand time was pulled forward. Yeah, it's a good now people are staying in their homes longer because you know, they own the home for so long that they what were they going

[00:27:02] to do sell it and then pay three times the mortgage rate. But

[00:27:05] that that way is over. There's very 20th century. Yeah, I know danielle is really a big fan of amazon and uh

[00:29:25] Definitely some of the retailers that we've talked about, I've been buying those. I think Lowe's will come back, but I guess we'll have to see.

[00:29:27] I'm a big gardener and I feel like I've been working on my house and I'm one of the crazy

[00:29:32] people who did buy a house in this market.

[00:29:36] I got a sweet deal on it because of the market condition.

[00:29:41] Right.

[00:29:42] I'm going to stick with Lowe's, but all of these tickers, if you look at Chewy, by the way, this is the setup, okay? You're looking at tickers that did have this huge move up throughout the pandemic, and then they're coming back down, right?

[00:31:00] When you look at Chewy, for example, Chewy has been in a downtrend since, man, I have

[00:31:06] to go back even further to see. couple times, you know, trading at 46 bucks a share now, it's coming up on earnings on the 13th. It's right there down on the lows of the quarter last quarter, it gap down 9.9%. The quarter before that it gap down 10.3%. So it's like a one, it's

[00:32:21] like one tequila, two tequila, three tequila, you know,

[00:32:24] type of situation.

[00:32:26] For Yeah, by the way at the feed level, you have higher wages because shockingly, you know, people don't want to take 14 years up their life by working in a stockyard or dismembering animals. And there's some industries like that that,'s, I mean, who's going back to department stores, you know? No way. No way. I mean, Nordstrom's, you know, oh my gosh. I'm with you. I mean, it's funny to, if you are a trader, it is fun to form a hypothesis about who sucks the most and then go back and look at, you know, there are two or three quarters and say,

[00:35:00] boy, this guy sucks.

[00:35:01] And well, how would they turn around?

[00:35:03] The only caveat I'd throw into that,

[00:35:05] we were short Facebook for a long time, really two transformational events that happened. One was at the bottom line and the other one was a technological line and that's been our best performing stock even before AI mania. So I'm just adding that to your list young lady that these high impact S curve inflections of demand or pricing power or salary reductions, if they don't get priced in then those are like long

[00:36:23] that you can make and then you sell the put off and keep that income. So on behalf of Danielle Shea and Tobin Smith, I am Todd Schoenberger. Thank you once again for joining us on Buy Hold Cell. We'll catch you next time. Take care. Buy Hold Cell brought to you by CrossCheck Management. Did you know virtually all vessels