Bullish Markets, Surprising Stocks, and High Yields: Sylvia Jablonski's Deep Dive on Buy Hold Sell

[00:00:00] inflation continues to be in check as we see the October producer price index has dropped one half of 1% its biggest one month drop since April 2020 inflation is down oil is down everybody's in a big relief for the Fed as well. PPI was in line. There's a lot of reasons for that. You have the 10-year below 4.5% as of yesterday.

[00:01:40] You have generally inflation cooling across the board.

[00:01:43] Oil prices went down, and consumers remain kind of but for some reason, it shows that health insurance prices are down 25%. Yeah, which do with a price, no seller would have to do with the supply demand being out of it. But once you spend that money and buy your new iPad, or your new apartment, you've spent it. And so, you know, a lot of that spending power has come

[00:04:23] back to earth. And, and the Fed is actually selling bonds, and not buying that. So, you know, there's always a wild card, right? Because I think they don't want it on their heads if they kind of cut too soon, right? I mean, that would be the biggest disaster for his reputation after the transitory thing and then kind of fixing it, right? So I think that if anything, we'll be conservative about that. But, you know, I'm probably in line

[00:05:40] with the dot plot, right? Maybe they'll have two cuts next year, wait it out, he made his money as a front man for private equity firms. He was never an economist. He was, but in the private equity business, we would call a suit. He had 12 suits. He made lunch reservations and dinner reservations for prospective clients and or to woo money. And that was it. He wasn't involved in policy.

[00:07:00] So I am very impressed of what he's been able to put together.

[00:07:03] He's obviously a very bright person,

[00:07:05] but he did not want to be the Arthur Burns

[00:07:07] of the 21st century. I mean, we're just slightly above it today. We actually rose nine basis points in the 10 year. But here's a question for both of you though. You still have Jay Powell comes out and he still is holding onto that 2% target. A dude, what do you think Sylvia? Do you think we'll ever see inflation hit 2%?

[00:08:20] And if that's the case, what happens if we don't?

[00:08:22] I mean, then all of a sudden this could continue on,

[00:08:26] at least the threat of hiking rates again

[00:08:28] could continue there. here is that if you were to come out and say like, for instance, what I would say if I was in this position, well, if two percent is our inflation goal, then the first thing we have to really understand is how did we stay below two percent inflation for, you know, a decade and a half? If we don't understand that, then how can we understand the reverse of that, which is, well, two percent

[00:09:40] really is somewhat arbitrary given that almost all the country that has a standing army and insurance company and sells debt. That's the business of the federal government. So he's stuck,

[00:11:02] I think. Okay. All right. Well, there you go. Well, we're going to leave it right there, by hold cell brought to you by cross check management a New story gets shared by a friend on social media or you catch a tweet that really makes your blood boil But how do you separate fact from fiction? That's the premise behind disinformation a ten-part series from every green podcasts and emergent risk

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[00:14:46] month reading since April of 2020. It's wonderful news because it says the Fed has things under control. At least it seems that way. The optics appear that way and stock market is growling as

[00:14:51] a result. Today with us we have Sylvia Jablonski. She is the CEO and CIO of Defiance ETFs and we also

[00:15:00] have Tobin Smith and PK who is now our official mascot of do two things. We, you know, number one, we kind of want to disrupt disrupt and innovate, right? So we thought about the future of technology and we launched a quantum ETF, which is like AI and machine learning, the feature of communications 5G, we've got electric vehicle stuff. And then, you know, most recently, we've looked to turn some of

[00:16:23] these cool enhanced income products on their on their 1.5% and then whatever they gain from the call work that they do. And so what we figured out is that there's a way to potentially generate more income by kind of turning this thing inside out. So about a year ago, zero DTE, so zero days until expert options were listed and launched.

[00:17:41] And so these options expire in a day.

[00:17:44] So they have kind of massive premium,

[00:17:46] massive time decay volatility and all that. so far for the past two months. I think month one on QQQY, which is the NASDAQ enhanced income fund, we're able to do an annualized div of 62%. The second one was 67 on JEPY, J-E-P-Y, which is S&P 500, over 50% both months. So the idea is clients are comfortable with risk for sure on the equity, like you have exposure to,

[00:19:02] if NASDAQ is down, you're down, right?

[00:19:03] If S&P is down, you're down.

[00:19:05] But if the index is kind did some, you know, I didn't do it. I just talked to chat, BRD, Google, and I say, write some code for me to show what happens when you reinvest 5% a month. And it goes in assuming that the there's no increase in the actual

[00:20:20] underlying index. And after 12 months, you can't spend that

[00:20:26] much income. I mean, it know, the second point is about the taxes to keep it in the Roth. But the reinvestment is, you know, just absolutely key because you'll get outperformance anyway. Like if you run QQQY versus

[00:21:42] QS, you can see that it's outperforming QS. But days to save it. So downside risk is a lot less than upside gain.

[00:23:01] And just to explain that too, for anybody listening,

[00:23:05] when you have days that the NASDAQ, on S&P 500, and on Rustworld. So they're the only ones that actually exist right now. And then I think Microsoft is going to be the winner on the tech side in artificial intelligence. Yeah, well, let's not forget that. Maybe not. We'll see what they do with their own chips too. Yeah, I was going to say, they just introduced their own chips. Slightly less computational, but they don't need, I mean, here's the strength thing. And so I deep into AI for a long time. And what was different about chat GBT and was about

[00:25:43] Nvidia was that that H100 was doing four and a half trillion calculations per second. I can't of acquisition. There's no commission to pay anybody. So it's a 100% incremental income. They're taking money out of their $180 billion of cash. So really, what is the billion dollars? When that billion dollars is buying you $250 million of revenues, that is all incremental profit. The math is unbeatable.

[00:27:00] And they seem, you know, some of these know if somebody has one already. I think somebody has one. I see, there is one. Yeah, yeah. But if you're the spokeschild for Microsoft. They don't have ODT either. They don't have like, so the issue is, right, and we're gonna do all sorts of stuff with this,

[00:28:20] but it's only the three indices that this exists on.

[00:28:24] So we have IWMY, that's the one we just launched

[00:28:27] like a week ago.

[00:28:28] Yeah. airlines in it, right? And cruises were really epic in the first six months of the year, Carnival, you know, Norwegian, some of these companies were up 60%, 100%, you know, whatever, and, you know, granted off of, off of, you know, big, pandemonium post COVID. But airlines are interesting, right? I think they think they got the rebound, you know, you started seeing bookings go up to what they

[00:29:40] were, you know, close to what they were pre COVID, China opened up in January. So, you know, East,

[00:29:45] East, West connections, things like that, people out there for business. So into the end of the year and it's kind of boring and nobody's looking at it anymore but I don't think that they're going to get hit with the geopolitics risk now at least. Yeah, I mean the oil prices obviously are down, the airports are jammed every time I fly out every other week now down to Southern California and oh my god. But- I mean it's more for a ticket for the flight or for Thanksgiving.

[00:32:04] knows. Right. But they're doing it. Yeah. And people are paying it because they, you know, as Todd, I've only said this 500

[00:32:07] times, the top 25% of income in America is 76% of discretionary

[00:32:12] spending. And all right, so it's 800 bucks versus 1400 bucks.

[00:32:16] Alright, I want that number two business class. I'm not going to

[00:32:19] pay first class, but I want that that lie down. And so they're

[00:32:22] selling that out when you sell those seats. That's like selling I mean, it's just that the whole strategy is just like ridiculous. But I mean, some costs and like people are just spending. I think it's a good, you know, marker of consumer discretionary. And you saw it this morning. I mean, I hate what you know, I hate what he's saying about like, oh, people come because they know everything is there because it's locked up like what?

[00:33:40] You know, that's right.

[00:33:42] Yeah, we only have money there.

[00:33:44] You know, we only use handcuffs one. I like that a lot. Well, these are all great ones to consider and just some super names actually out there for the investors. I know they're gonna get a lot out of that. So Sylvia, I think we said it all today. What a great show for the audience.

[00:35:01] You wanna go to Defiance ETFs, ETFs.com

[00:35:06] and check out what Sylvia and her crew are doing there. Thank you once again for joining us today on buy hold sell. We'll catch you next time. Take care Buy hold sell brought to you by cross-check management How much do you understand the future of finance? I'm Jim Roos a top 10 banking influencer and host of the podcast banking transform

[00:36:24] Where we dive deeply into the rapidly evolving world of banking and financial technology