El Nino or global warming? Why Kerala is unusually hot this summer | Ep 110
News Brake - The ExplainerMay 03, 202400:27:01

El Nino or global warming? Why Kerala is unusually hot this summer | Ep 110

Heatwave in India

Dr M G Manoj, a scientist at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research in Cochin University of Science and Technology joins News Brake to discuss the intensity of the heatwave in Kerala and the reasons behind it.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.



00:00:04

Speaker 1: nature's playbook seems to have taken an unexpected turn in




00:00:07

Speaker 1: the God's own country. This year, temperatures soared past 35




00:00:12

Speaker 1: °C in Kerala as early as February 3 months on




00:00:16

Speaker 1: the mercury has only zoomed further, leaving its residents in despair.




00:00:21

Speaker 1: But that's just the beginning. Wild elephants, tigers, bears and




00:00:25

Speaker 1: boars roaming in the forest are now making daily trips




00:00:29

Speaker 1: to Kerala towns. And then there's the sea, unleashing its




00:00:33

Speaker 1: fury with the unpredictable colour cuddle waves crashing against the coast.




00:00:38

Speaker 1: Amidst these bewildering occurrences, questions hang heavy in the air.




00:00:42

Speaker 1: What is driving this unprecedented heat? Is it the hand




00:00:47

Speaker 1: of the El Nino or the ominous shadow of the




00:00:50

Speaker 1: global warming? Or perhaps something altogether unforeseen?




00:01:01

Speaker 1: Hi, you're listening to on Manorama Explainer Podcast NewsBreak, a




00:01:05

Speaker 1: weekly show that breaks down news in a clutter free manner.




00:01:09

Speaker 1: This is Harita Benjamin, and today we are here to




00:01:12

Speaker 1: discuss why the Indian subcontinent and Kerala in particular, is




00:01:17

Speaker 1: boiling hot.




00:01:19

Speaker 1: Dr. MG Manoj, a scientist at the Advanced Centre for




00:01:22

Speaker 1: Atmospheric Radar Research in Cochin University of Science and Technology,




00:01:27

Speaker 1: CUSAT joins us today to discuss the matter. Welcome to




00:01:30

Speaker 1: the show, Dr Manoj. Thank you so much for joining News Brake .




00:01:34

Speaker 1: Thank you.




00:01:35

Speaker 1: So, let's begin with the basics. H ow hot is




00:01:39

Speaker 1: Kerala right now? If you are to compare the data




00:01:41

Speaker 1: to previous years and months, what does it indicate?




00:01:46

Speaker 2: Actually, Kerala is grappling with severe heat. And the India




00:01:53

Speaker 2: Meteorological Department has declared a heatwave




00:01:57

Speaker 2: for the second time in history in Kerala. The first




00:02:01

Speaker 2: incident was in 2016 17 when the one of the




00:02:05

Speaker 2: strongest EL Nino took place. And, Kerala faced the heat index




00:02:11

Speaker 2: and exactly after seven years,




00:02:14

Speaker 2: the second time




00:02:16

Speaker 2: it has arrived. And this time it is more severe




00:02:20

Speaker 2: compared to the previous one. And the impact is so




00:02:24

Speaker 2: huge that we lost several valuable lives too. So it




00:02:29

Speaker 2: is a critical state in which




00:02:33

Speaker 2: temperature added with the humidity is creating most, uh, uh,




00:02:37

Speaker 2: distrust for the common people.




00:02:40

Speaker 2: Those who are rich and can afford to an AC and




00:02:44

Speaker 2: the other cooling mechanisms are safe. But the common people




00:02:49

Speaker 2: are suffering from this, sweltering hot condition. If you want




00:02:54

Speaker 2: to talk in terms of quantities, the average maximum temperatures




00:03:00

Speaker 2: are higher by




00:03:03

Speaker 2: four degrees or 4.5 °C compared to the climatological average.




00:03:09

Speaker 2: So that means, uh, we are facing or we are




00:03:12

Speaker 2: inching towards the hotter regimes, in recent days. And for




00:03:19

Speaker 2: the last one week, the temperature has reached or crossed




00:03:24

Speaker 2: the 40 °C benchmark.




00:03:26

Speaker 2: So it is really a tough time for the ordinary people.




00:03:31

Speaker 2: And we need to have or exercise caution regarding this




00:03:36

Speaker 2: special condition.




00:03:39

Speaker 1: All right, sir. So now you were speaking about the




00:03:41

Speaker 1: heat wave in particular. So what qualifies as a heat wave?




00:03:45

Speaker 1: And how harmful is the exposure to sunlight? Or, you know,




00:03:48

Speaker 1: the UV and the heat?




00:03:56

Speaker 2: Yes. There's a strict condition or criteria adopted by the




00:03:59

Speaker 2: Indian Meteorological Department to declare Indians heat as heatwave All




00:04:07

Speaker 2: increase. The temperatures cannot be qualified as heatwave, but it




00:04:11

Speaker 2: should satisfy two conditions. The first one is the average temperature,




00:04:15

Speaker 2: or the maximum temperature should be above 40 °C For




00:04:19

Speaker 2: the plane areas. For the heat areas, it should be




00:04:24

Speaker 2: 30 °C. And once it process this benchmark temperature or




00:04:29

Speaker 2: threshold temperature. The the the anomaly or the departure from




00:04:35

Speaker 2: the climatological average should be above 4.5 °C. So if




00:04:41

Speaker 2: these two conditions are satisfied simultaneously, then it is declared




00:04:46

Speaker 2: as a heat wave, provided




00:04:48

Speaker 2: it should continue for one or two days consecutively. And




00:04:53

Speaker 2: at least the two stations in adjacent recording stations. So




00:04:59

Speaker 2: if all conditions are met, then it is a heatwave.




00:05:03

Speaker 1: So this average is a long period average. Is it?




00:05:06

Speaker 1: So how many years are taken for this average?




00:05:10

Speaker 2: Right, generally average for a statistically significant one. We should




00:05:14

Speaker 2: have at least 30 years of data, and the higher




00:05:18

Speaker 2: the number, the higher the number it is good. So




00:05:20

Speaker 2: generally I MD takes 50 or 100 years of data




00:05:24

Speaker 2: at least 50 years of data. Uh, we have to




00:05:27

Speaker 2: consider for calculating the climatological average because every year there




00:05:32

Speaker 2: will be fluctuation in temperature for that particular day.




00:05:35

Speaker 2: So you take, for example, today is may 2nd. So




00:05:39

Speaker 2: you consider all May 2s for the last 50 years




00:05:43

Speaker 2: or 100 years and take the average of that one.




00:05:46

Speaker 2: And if today, this year. Today. If it is, 4.5




00:05:50

Speaker 2: °C above the climatological average, then the departure is calculated




00:05:55

Speaker 2: for estimating heat wave intensity.




00:05:57

Speaker 1: Right. Uh, so now there is also this thing called




00:06:01

Speaker 1: heat index, where a new factor in the humidity factor. Right. So,




00:06:06

Speaker 1: how important is humidity? Is it a good thing or




00:06:08

Speaker 1: a bad thing? Because I am a person who grew




00:06:10

Speaker 1: up in the Middle East. I was in Kuwait as




00:06:12

Speaker 1: well as in UAE




00:06:14

Speaker 1: and in U A E The humidity was higher than, uh,




00:06:17

Speaker 1: the and in Kuwait it was more of a dry heat.




00:06:20

Speaker 1: So I've often heard my parents comparing the two types




00:06:23

Speaker 1: of heat. And sometimes they used to say that the




00:06:25

Speaker 1: humidity is better. Uh, compared to the dry heat in Kuwait. So,




00:06:30

Speaker 1: is that true, or is that a common misconception?




00:06:35

Speaker 2: Yes, there is some science to that because we need




00:06:40

Speaker 2: an optimum condition of humidity if the humidity is very less,




00:06:43

Speaker 2: that is not good for the skin. And if it




00:06:46

Speaker 2: is too high, that is, uh, humidity is generally expressed




00:06:51

Speaker 2: as percentage relative humidity relative means with respect to the




00:06:55

Speaker 2: maximum capacity. What is the current, uh, amount available? That




00:06:59

Speaker 2: is why it is the percentage. So if humidity is




00:07:03

Speaker 2: above some 50 or 60% then our, uh, body starts




00:07:08

Speaker 2: sweltering like anything. And this, uh, sweating is an automatic mechanism




00:07:14

Speaker 2: to pull down the body that is controlled by our




00:07:17

Speaker 2: hypothalamus in the brain. So on the higher side, it




00:07:22

Speaker 2: is not that good. And if it is too low, like, uh,




00:07:26

Speaker 2: below 20% then also we feel severe




00:07:30

Speaker 2: dryness in our, uh, skin. So the optimum condition is




00:07:34

Speaker 2: close to something like a 40 to 50 that is




00:07:37

Speaker 2: affordable and very good. And why we need to factor




00:07:41

Speaker 2: in humidity while considering the temperature. There is an explanation




00:07:45

Speaker 2: for that one. Because, uh, we know humidity or water




00:07:49

Speaker 2: vapour is a gaseous form of water liquid water. And




00:07:53

Speaker 2: for converting this liquid water into this gaseous phase, it




00:07:59

Speaker 2: needs to absorb certain heat from the surrounding area. That




00:08:03

Speaker 2: means the humidity has lot more content of heat compared




00:08:09

Speaker 2: to a dry air having the same temperature of that




00:08:13

Speaker 2: of that air of that water vapour. So, uh, that's




00:08:19

Speaker 2: why the burning due to this steam or water vapour




00:08:24

Speaker 2: is more injurious




00:08:26

Speaker 2: and and dry burning. OK, so so nowadays, you know




00:08:32

Speaker 2: that we know that, uh, Kerala is experiencing a, uh, hot,




00:08:36

Speaker 2: humid maritime climate. That means the humidity levels are al




00:08:41

Speaker 2: almost all throughout the year i t is very high closing 50%




00:08:46

Speaker 2: or so. So a lot more humidity means, uh, our




00:08:50

Speaker 2: body is experiencing that additional heat, other than the dry air.




00:08:57

Speaker 2: So to put it, put it in quantitative manner. Suppose,




00:09:03

Speaker 2: the air temperature today is, uh, 38 °C and the




00:09:08

Speaker 2: average humidity is close to 50%. The body experience in




00:09:13

Speaker 2: temperature or the temperature experienced by by the body is




00:09:16

Speaker 2: something like a 44 or 45 °C. It is greater




00:09:21

Speaker 2: than the dry air temperature.




00:09:23

Speaker 2: Now, let the air temperature be the same, but the humidity




00:09:28

Speaker 2: you slightly increase by 10% so that it is now 60%




00:09:33

Speaker 2: the temperature experienced by the body or the feeling temperature




00:09:37

Speaker 2: is close to 48 °C. So this added humidity adds




00:09:43

Speaker 2: discomfort to our body. And that's what Kerala is facing now.




00:09:49

Speaker 2: Because the several places




00:09:51

Speaker 2: thunderstorms are there even though it is not widely scattered.




00:09:54

Speaker 2: There are certain isolated thunderstorms. And, those areas which are




00:09:59

Speaker 2: receiving these thunderstorms are actually increasing the humidity level in




00:10:03

Speaker 2: the atmosphere. In addition, the coastal areas coastal cities are




00:10:07

Speaker 2: also experiencing more humidity. So it adds a little bit




00:10:11

Speaker 2: of more distress to the body. And, uh, our, uh,




00:10:15

Speaker 2: heat controlling mechanism is affected.




00:10:19

Speaker 1: All right, moving on we have been hearing this phrase




00:10:23

Speaker 1: called El Nino for quite some time now, And the




00:10:26

Speaker 1: scientists are actually, uh, pinning the blame on El Nino




00:10:29

Speaker 1: for the current hot temperatures. So could you briefly explain




00:10:34

Speaker 1: this phenomenon to us? And is this the reason why




00:10:37

Speaker 1: summer has arrived so early in Kerala at this time?




00:10:41

Speaker 2: Exactly. El Nino is a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomena that means




00:10:47

Speaker 2: the there is an anomalous warming in the east central




00:10:52

Speaker 2: Pacific close to the equator, the sea surface temperature or




00:10:56

Speaker 2: the SST is increasing by 2 to 5 °C above normal.




00:11:02

Speaker 2: So, several millions of square kilometres of warming in the




00:11:08

Speaker 2: Pacific has impact on the atmosphere. Also, because this added




00:11:13

Speaker 2: heat in the Pacific will be transferred to the atmosphere




00:11:17

Speaker 2: and thereby affecting the pressure pattern atmosphere globally. That means




00:11:22

Speaker 2: the global wind pattern will be affected if pressure is changed.




00:11:26

Speaker 2: So wherever we are getting rain there, you may not




00:11:30

Speaker 2: get rain. And wherever we are not getting rain, we




00:11:33

Speaker 2: may get rain. So such a contradictory phenomenon or contrasting




00:11:39

Speaker 2: features arise due to this El Nino conditions, as far as




00:11:43

Speaker 2: India is concerned, there is, uh, the wind pattern is




00:11:47

Speaker 2: not favourable for any rain cloud formation so that we




00:11:52

Speaker 2: are devoid of summer rains. And, not only that it




00:11:58

Speaker 2: is as a result of this E, you know, the




00:12:00

Speaker 2: the circulation pattern in the atmosphere gets modified.




00:12:05

Speaker 2: And there is something known as an anticyclone which in




00:12:08

Speaker 2: which the air rotates in the direction of clock. So




00:12:13

Speaker 2: if such anti co circulation or anti cyclones exist at




00:12:18

Speaker 2: the in the atmosphere, that circulation will not allow the




00:12:23

Speaker 2: hot air from the ground to rise.




00:12:28

Speaker 2: If hot air rises, then only we will feel some




00:12:31

Speaker 2: sort of comfort. But this anticyclone will not allow the




00:12:36

Speaker 2: hot air to rise. And it will actually suppress convection




00:12:41

Speaker 2: over the land area so that we will feel additional warming.




00:12:45

Speaker 2: So because of this atmospheric conditions, the temperature at a




00:12:50

Speaker 2: particular region will start increasing to dangerous levels. That's what




00:12:56

Speaker 2: we have been experiencing during El Nino and in this year prior




00:13:02

Speaker 2: to summer,the premonson months of March, May, in February itself, we




00:13:10

Speaker 2: experienced temperatures as high as 36 or 37 °C at




00:13:15

Speaker 2: many parts of the state. This was due to the




00:13:18

Speaker 2: enormous circulation initiated by Nino conditions. So El Nino is, uh,




00:13:25

Speaker 2: really a concern for weathermen .




00:13:31

Speaker 1: Right. And it's going to affect everything from agriculture to




00:13:34

Speaker 1: human beings. Right. Uh, So how long is this El




00:13:38

Speaker 1: Nino phenomenon going to last? Will it will its influence




00:13:41

Speaker 1: in the Indian subcontinent next year as well. Or will it,




00:13:44

Speaker 1: you know pass on La Nina conditions later on.




00:13:49

Speaker 2: Good question. El Nino has a typical periodicity of 2 to




00:13:52

Speaker 2: 7 years. That means if this year is El Nino, next one may happen




00:13:59

Speaker 2: after two year or third year. Fourth year, up to




00:14:02

Speaker 2: seven year anywhere between 2 to 7 year. That is




00:14:05

Speaker 2: the periodicity . So next year need not be El Nino. But next to next year may be El Nino.




00:14:15

Speaker 2: This typical periodicity of El Nino will last for generally for one




00:14:26

Speaker 2: or 1.5 year. And, currently the El Nino that we are




00:14:32

Speaker 2: experiencing has come into a neutral state.




00:14:36

Speaker 2: It is not El Nino nor La Nina. La Nina is




00:14:41

Speaker 2: the opposite of Nino. So, we are in the neutral state




00:14:44

Speaker 2: at present, but still, the effect that was produced as




00:14:49

Speaker 2: a result of the previous El Nino still prevails in the atmosphere.




00:14:53

Speaker 1: Right. So, now moving on, are there any other reasons




00:14:57

Speaker 1: for this hot weather?Beacause people are also talking about global warming.Is




00:15:02

Speaker 1: global warming and climate change also partly at fault?




00:15:13

Speaker 2: The causative factors can be divided into 2- One is the global effect.




00:15:17

Speaker 2: Second one is the local effect in the global effect. Definitely,




00:15:21

Speaker 2: this global warming is the culprit because you know, globally




00:15:27

Speaker 2: the air temperature and the sea surface temperatures are on




00:15:31

Speaker 2: an increasing trend, and it has repercussions in our region also.




00:15:36

Speaker 2: So that is the one thing. Second thing is, the




00:15:39

Speaker 2: global oceans are warming at an unprecedented rate,




00:15:43

Speaker 2: especially the Indian Ocean is warming at double the rate or,




00:15:47

Speaker 2: almost doubled compared to the global oceans so that the




00:15:52

Speaker 2: Arabian Sea is now in a very hot state boiling state.




00:15:56

Speaker 2: We can qualify it as a boiling state because the




00:16:00

Speaker 2: currently the sea surface temperatures are 1 to 2 Celsius




00:16:04

Speaker 2: above normal. Generally, during May 1st week, we have a




00:16:08

Speaker 2: sea surface temperatures close to 29 or 29.5. But currently




00:16:14

Speaker 2: the Arabian Sea that is adjoining the Kerala coast is




00:16:18

Speaker 2: now at 31.5 °C to 32 °C. So there is




00:16:23

Speaker 2: an anomalous warming of 1.5 to 2 °C along the




00:16:26

Speaker 2: Kerala coast. And the effect is that during even during nighttime,




00:16:32

Speaker 2: this additional warm or heat energy, escaping from the Arabian




00:16:37

Speaker 2: Sea will be spread into the land area and we




00:16:39

Speaker 2: can have a sweltering hot conditions during midnight hours. These




00:16:46

Speaker 2: are the global effects.




00:16:48

Speaker 2: the second factor is the local effect. Local effect is




00:16:52

Speaker 2: mostly as far as Kerala is concerned. It is totally




00:16:55

Speaker 2: an urbanised area. There is no very less, marshy land




00:16:59

Speaker 2: or forest area compared to other north Indian states. So,




00:17:03

Speaker 2: his additional land cover land use changes that we have




00:17:07

Speaker 2: brought in over Kerala for the last several decades. However,




00:17:13

Speaker 2: more




00:17:13

Speaker 2: the surface properties, if the surface is green, then it




00:17:17

Speaker 2: will reflect of much of the solar energy coming into




00:17:21

Speaker 2: the atmosphere so that we will feel cool. But once




00:17:25

Speaker 2: we modify the or destroy the greenery and increase the




00:17:29

Speaker 2: built up area like a concrete buildings, tar road, etc ,




00:17:34

Speaker 2: then these surfaces have a property of absorbing more




00:17:38

Speaker 2: heat energy, and it will re- radiate this energy into




00:17:42

Speaker 2: the atmosphere, making our atmosphere very warm. Even during midnight hours.




00:17:47

Speaker 2: That's why Nowadays, we can't sleep because of this additional,




00:17:51

Speaker 2: concrete buildings and our roads and et cetera. So the




00:17:56

Speaker 2: the remedy is to increase the greenery, the surface area,




00:18:00

Speaker 2: we have to increase with the greenery.




00:18:03

Speaker 2: And we should adopt certain ecofriendly measures to, um, build




00:18:11

Speaker 2: the houses constructions and wherever development happens, we should have




00:18:18

Speaker 2: a concrete plan to, offset the the ill effects. That




00:18:23

Speaker 2: is the most important factor we have to think at




00:18:26

Speaker 2: the local level.




00:18:28

Speaker 1: Right. So on one hand, we have the ocean heating up,




00:18:31

Speaker 1: and on the other hand, we have the land heating




00:18:33

Speaker 1: up due to our land use patterns. So now there




00:18:38

Speaker 1: is this warning against Kallakadal phenomenon, which has been issued




00:18:41

Speaker 1: by the I MD. Now you were speaking about, you know,




00:18:44

Speaker 1: the ocean temperatures rising, et cetera. Is this something connected




00:18:48

Speaker 1: to that, or is it normal, or is it also




00:18:50

Speaker 1: related to the changes in ocean temperature and global warming




00:18:54

Speaker 1: in general? Could you just break that down for us?




00:18:59

Speaker 2: Kallakadal is a separate phenomena where rogue waves are coming from




00:19:02

Speaker 2: remote ocean places where storms develop. For example, last month




00:19:07

Speaker 2: we experienced a severe Kallakadal and the origin was the




00:19:11

Speaker 2: southern Atlantic Ocean, something like 10 kilometres away from Kerala coast.




00:19:17

Speaker 2: There was a storm and the waves generated or triggered




00:19:22

Speaker 2: by these storms travelled all the way up to Kerala




00:19:25

Speaker 2: coast and created this hazard. So that is, uh, that




00:19:28

Speaker 2: is one thing, Kakar.




00:19:30

Speaker 2: But as the temperature of the ocean is increasing, there




00:19:33

Speaker 2: are two effects. One is the the seawater expands, and




00:19:38

Speaker 2: once it expands, it requires more space to get accumulated.




00:19:41

Speaker 2: So there will be naturally, the sea level rise will




00:19:45

Speaker 2: be there. That is one thing. And on the other hand,




00:19:48

Speaker 2: if ocean temperatures are increasing, that will produce more severe storms.




00:19:53

Speaker 2: So as a result of this




00:19:55

Speaker 2: storm against storm surges will be there. So it is,




00:19:58

Speaker 2: in a way, intricated and very complicated. And they have




00:20:02

Speaker 2: interactions and it is affecting Kallakadal phenomenon also. So, that way




00:20:10

Speaker 2: should be more prepared to face such challenges in the




00:20:14

Speaker 2: immediate future.




00:20:16

Speaker 1: Right? So now another question which comes to mind is




00:20:19

Speaker 1: you know, how is the monsoon forecast looking like this year?




00:20:23

Speaker 1: Will it be influenced by the El Nino? You just said




00:20:26

Speaker 1: that it is almost neutral right now. Is the effect going




00:20:31

Speaker 1: to persist until the monsoon?




00:20:35

Speaker 2: Yeah. El Nino is only one factor that is affecting the




00:20:39

Speaker 2: strength of monsoon. There is one more phenomenon similar to




00:20:43

Speaker 2: that is known as the Indian Ocean dipole. That is




00:20:46

Speaker 2: east to west asymmetry in the surface temperatures in the




00:20:50

Speaker 2: equatorial Indian Ocean region. OK, first, I will talk about




00:20:54

Speaker 2: the El Nino. I have already mentioned that this year the




00:20:59

Speaker 2: El Nino is subsiding. And it is now in the neutral stage.




00:21:04

Speaker 2: And almost all climate models globally predict that by the




00:21:10

Speaker 2: second half of monsoon, that is, by August, uh, 2024.




00:21:15

Speaker 2: This neutral condition will further change into La Nina condition.




00:21:20

Speaker 2: La Nina is just the opposite phase of El Nino.




00:21:24

Speaker 2: So it is favourable for good monsoon over India.




00:21:29

Speaker 2: We are expecting more or a good amount of rainfall




00:21:34

Speaker 2: in the second half of, uh, monsoon by August to September




00:21:41

Speaker 2: Then the second factor is the Indian Ocean dipole that




00:21:44

Speaker 2: also has positive dipole and negative dipole and neutral condition




00:21:47

Speaker 2: in between. So positive Indian Ocean dipole is good for




00:21:52

Speaker 2: a very good monsoon. And, uh, most of the climate




00:21:55

Speaker 2: models indicate that we are on the way or engine




00:21:58

Speaker 2: to a positive IOD. So both of these factors are




00:22:03

Speaker 2: going to help a good rainfall over Indian region. And,




00:22:08

Speaker 2: on one side, it is good, but on the other side,




00:22:12

Speaker 2: we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme flood like situations. Anyway,




00:22:24

Speaker 2: we cannot predict it right now, but there are probabilities




00:22:27

Speaker 2: or possibilities, so we should be prepared to face such challenges.




00:22:32

Speaker 1: All right. To wind up, let's talk a little more




00:22:35

Speaker 1: about climate change.




00:22:37

Speaker 1: What is the most conservative estimate say about the rising temperatures?




00:22:41

Speaker 1: If we are to look forward and how do we




00:22:43

Speaker 1: adapt to it at an individual and a macro level?




00:22:46

Speaker 1: Is our weather forecast system sufficient? The current system sufficient, uh,




00:22:51

Speaker 1: for us in the long run, or do we have




00:22:54

Speaker 1: to develop that feature in, you know, advanced models or




00:22:58

Speaker 1: something of that sort?




00:23:01

Speaker 2: Weather prediction and climate prediction are somewhat different. Uh, technically speaking,




00:23:08

Speaker 2: they are different, but we cannot predict the weather for




00:23:11

Speaker 2: more than one or two weeks. We cannot predict, but




00:23:14

Speaker 2: climate climate is like an average condition that can be predicted,




00:23:20

Speaker 2: something like a decades at go. So as far as the




00:23:24

Speaker 2: the inter governmental




00:23:27

Speaker 2: panel on climate change, that is the official UN agency




00:23:31

Speaker 2: IPCC IPCC report. By the end of the century, the




00:23:35

Speaker 2: global average surface temperature is expected to rise by 3




00:23:40

Speaker 2: to 5 °C by the end of this century. That




00:23:43

Speaker 2: means by 2100. We may face a new hot regime




00:23:48

Speaker 2: of climate.




00:23:50

Speaker 2: And, you know, for every 1 °C agreement in air temperature,




00:23:56

Speaker 2: there is a 7% increase in humidity expected. That means




00:24:04

Speaker 2: in the hot and humid climate, more water vapour will




00:24:08

Speaker 2: enter into the atmosphere and they have the potential to




00:24:12

Speaker 2: develop deep, convective clouds, which can produce exceptionally heavy rainfall,




00:24:20

Speaker 2: like a cloud burst. So this sort of, uh, implications




00:24:24

Speaker 2: are there. But anyway, this is an estimation or a




00:24:28

Speaker 2: projection because it all depends on how we address this




00:24:32

Speaker 2: problem at the earliest.




00:24:34

Speaker 2: That's why we use different scenarios, or it is known




00:24:38

Speaker 2: as S SPS, socially shared pathways. So depending upon our




00:24:45

Speaker 2: developmental policies there are 3 conditions on how we end up in this century .




00:24:55

Speaker 2: I will tell you three conditions. One is, all the




00:24:58

Speaker 2: developmental activities are going on, just like at the current rate.




00:25:02

Speaker 2: Then we we implement a lot of green policies and




00:25:07

Speaker 2: reduce the greenhouse emission. That is the second one. And




00:25:11

Speaker 2: the worst case is we are all adhering to our




00:25:14

Speaker 2: luxurious life. So under these three different conditions,




00:25:18

Speaker 2: what could be the projected temperatures that will vary? And




00:25:22

Speaker 2: we are to the best estimate we are experiencing three




00:25:26

Speaker 2: to or expecting 3 to 5 °C by the end




00:25:29

Speaker 2: of the century. But remember, this is a globally averaged




00:25:33

Speaker 2: picture




00:25:34

Speaker 2: everywhere. Geographically, there can be variations. For example, the polar




00:25:41

Speaker 2: regions are warming at the double the rate compared to




00:25:46

Speaker 2: other other region double or triple rate. So there will




00:25:49

Speaker 2: be more ice melt, and that can have repercussions on




00:25:54

Speaker 2: sea level rise . So all these problems are really complicated, but,




00:26:02

Speaker 2: the scientists are trying to trying their level best to




00:26:06

Speaker 2: understand this phenomenon and make a prediction for the future generation.




00:26:13

Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Doctor Manoj, for joining us. I




00:26:16

Speaker 1: think all of us are a little more aware about what, uh,




00:26:19

Speaker 1: this heat wave is about and why the temperatures are




00:26:22

Speaker 1: where it is today. Uh, and I hope, uh, that




00:26:26

Speaker 1: all of us, uh, will learn to live a little




00:26:29

Speaker 1: more sustainably, uh, so that our future generations have a




00:26:33

Speaker 1: better world to live in.




00:26:34

Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. T hat's a




00:26:37

Speaker 1: wrap of today's episode of on Onmanorama's News Brake and




00:26:40

Speaker 1: explain a podcast produced by Harita Benjamin with technical production




00:26:43

Speaker 1: by Ideab rew Studios. It comes out every week and




00:26:47

Speaker 1: is available on all podcast platforms. Do follow onmanorama.com for




00:26:52

Speaker 1: more updates