In this edition of 'Editorial,' Mr. Sujit Nair delves into the pivotal role Maharashtra plays in determining the Prime Minister in the upcoming Lok Sabha Election. He delves into the fractures within Maharashtra's two prominent regional parties, namely Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party, and underscores the discontent among the state's populace regarding these schisms. Mr. Nair predicts that the BJP might encounter setbacks and secure fewer seats compared to its 2019 performance owing to these aforementioned factors.
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[00:00:02] Hello and welcome to HW Editorial with me Sujit Nair. Here you can listen to my views, my analysis. Follow this podcast to stay updated. At HW News, we have been delivering news that matters to you.
[00:00:17] Our goal is to present you with information that stimulates conversations around topic of larger public importance that often gets lost in prime time shows. Namaskar! Welcome to another episode of Editorial. Today, the second phase of elections are over.
[00:00:50] Now, my topic tonight is not really the second phase that we will talk in my live show but my topic tonight is Maharashtra probably will determine whether Narendra Modi gets his third term as Prime Minister or not. Maharashtra could decide that.
[00:01:17] Let's understand why and let's understand where Maharashtra politically stands today. Let's get right to the show. So it's like this. Maharashtra was normally at least 2014, 2019. Bharatiya Janata Party was dominating. In 2024, a lot of pollsters had said that Bharatiya Janata Party will dominate.
[00:01:52] In fact, India TV had said that Bharatiya Janata Party will get around 38 seats out of 48 seats. And ABB voter had said that they would put their Bharatiya Janata Party, that is their lines, their NCP, Shiv Sena put together.
[00:02:08] Would get 30 seats and Shiv Sena, UBT and NCP Sharad Pawar and Congress put together would get around 18 seats. This is what C-Voters had said. According to most of the pollsters, the dominating party or alliance was the NDA. Now things look a little different in Maharashtra.
[00:02:38] Uddhav Balasat Thakre seems to be gaining grounds in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar also seems to be to a certain extent basking in the sympathy wave that he is getting out of Maharashtra. That being said, Narendra Damodar Das Modi is still one of the most dominating figures
[00:03:04] and one of the most dominating leaders in Maharashtra and people are very for it. This is the situation. Now you will ask me, why did I say things changed? The reason I say things changed is because, somewhere down the line, Maharashtra does not have a local leader now.
[00:03:27] Devendra Fadnavis, who used to be the star of Bharatiya Janata Party in Maharashtra, has lost that sheen. He has lost the sheen both internally and externally. Internally because he is not that undisputed leader of Bharatiya Janata Party in Maharashtra. He is no longer that undisputed leader.
[00:03:52] There has been a lot of questions regarding his leadership that has been raised and a lot of leaders who he had sidelined including Vinod Tauri are now dominating.
[00:04:06] Eknaath Khadase was another leader which he had sidelined but all these leaders who he had sidelined are all of a sudden coming up and coming to the limelight. Eknaath Khadase who had joined NCP has come back to Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:04:22] So that itself is an indication that the person who was the shining star of Bharatiya Janata Party in Maharashtra has lost that sheen. So that is point number one. Point number two is there is a reason he has lost the sheen externally.
[00:04:42] You see while Modi has been kept out of all this, you see all this breaking of parties, sending people to Assam, sending people to Gujarat,
[00:04:55] sending you know talking about how they broke up party, making a joke out of it and all of that is something that didn't go too well with Maharashtra voters. You see Maharashtra is a state where politics, ethics, ideologies actually it's the cradle of politics and ideologies.
[00:05:19] Gopal Krishna Gokle was from Maharashtra. Lokmania Tilak was from Maharashtra. Chaptrapati Shivaji was from Maharashtra. Shahu Maharashtra was from Maharashtra. Jyotiba Phule was from Maharashtra. Dr. Baba Sahib Ambedkar was from Maharashtra.
[00:05:34] Maharashtra is the cradle of politics, of ideology, of democracy. Whether it be right or whether it be left, it is the cradle. Arrass is also in Maharashtra by the way. In a place like this where ideology has still not lost its way,
[00:05:54] making jokes in the assembly about how a government was pulled and how a government was decimated, how they took 42 people and ran away. All this didn't really go well. It didn't really suit the image of the Bharatiya Janata Party leader of Maharashtra that is Devendra Fartneris.
[00:06:16] Now luckily, like I told you before, I repeat myself, it has not affected Mr. Narendra Modi as of now. It has not affected. But end of the day, Devendra Fartneris versus Uddhav Thakre will score. Narendra Modi versus Uddhav Thakre definitely Narendra Modi will score.
[00:06:38] So, Devendra Fartneris did a very good thing, a very intelligent thing. What he did is he went out and said that, let's say when you go to vote, you are not voting for any one of us. You are voting for Narendra Modi.
[00:06:50] If you don't vote for Narendra Modi then mind you, you are voting for Raul Gandhi. So, he himself realized the fact that this is the face that can get him votes. His own face if pitted against Uddhav Thakre may not fetch him that vote.
[00:07:12] So, very intelligent move by him. So, the long and short what I am trying to say is if the battle is brought down to the ground then advantage is the Mahavikas Agadi. There is an advantage.
[00:07:28] If the battle is fought with still the Modi name, there is a chance that the Mahayuti may score. My personal view is this lopsided figures may not really happen. This is my personal view. I may be wrong in this but this is my personal view.
[00:07:50] Like I said, this prediction game is all weird. It never has any relevance but all the same. This is what I think. So, end of the day what's really going to happen is if Maharashtra doesn't score for Bharatiya Janata Party,
[00:08:05] if Maharashtra has a 10-15 seat loss for Bharatiya Janata Party, it is directly going to affect that 303 number and 13 or 15 seats at least in the first two phases one can't see clearly where is it coming from. Let's first come to Maharashtra figures.
[00:08:28] Maharashtra 2019, Bharatiya Janata Party had won 23 seats, 27.84% votes, Shiv Sena 18 seats, 23.5% votes, NCP 4 seats and INC-NCP put together had around 31-32% vote share and if you add Shiv Sena to it, they had close to 55-56% vote share.
[00:08:51] So that was what this three put together was but of course a bit of Shiv Sena is gone, bit of NCP is gone. That two need to be kept in mind. So, repeating last time that is 42 out of 48 is going to be slightly difficult for Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:09:09] So there is a loss there. Now in Rajasthan for instance, Bharatiya Janata Party had won 24 seats out of 25 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, Bharatiya Janata Party had won 28 seats out of 21 seats, Delhi 7 seats out of 7 seats. So all these regions they had maxed out.
[00:09:28] Now if you got to, if you see, if you talk about crowned gossips as one would say, a lot of people say Rajasthan may not be as good as what it was last year. Maybe a couple of seats may go or maybe more, some people say more.
[00:09:43] So would Bharatiya Janata Party get 24 out of 24 this time or 24 out of 25 this time, my apologies, 24 out of 25 this time? Will they get 28 out of 29 this time in Madhya Pradesh? Chances are no and if they lose 5 seats in Rajasthan, if they lose 5 seats in Madhya Pradesh,
[00:10:00] you are talking about 10 seats, 10 seats from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, 15 seats from Maharashtra. What happens? 25 seats shot directly, shot directly. Where do they get it from? This entire thing about South being a place where they are going to venture in,
[00:10:20] you know, a lot of people said double digits, that, this and the other. At least by the looks of it, one doesn't know whether it is going to actually happen or not. So if that doesn't happen, then where are these figures coming from?
[00:10:32] Will Delhi again give 7 out of 7 to Bharatiya Janata Party? That too is a question. So the point is both for Congress and that is Congress, whatever, India Alliance and for Bharatiya Janata Party, Maharashtra is going to be a litmus test.
[00:10:52] If they repeat their performance of 2019 in Maharashtra, awesome. If they do better it, which is 6 more seats, I am sorry, if they better it, well that's awesome. But by the looks of it, it doesn't seem to be repeating at least for sure.
[00:11:10] Better the Kado Duri Baate, whether they come close to it is something that one needs to know. The point is, the last thing that I want to talk to you about is West Bengal. West Bengal, TMC got 22 seats, BJP got 18 seats, TMC got 43% vote and BJP got 40% vote.
[00:11:28] So percentage of vote wise they were very close and seat wise BJP was just 4 shots of TMC. Just 4 shots of TMC. INC and CPI am put together at 11%, 12% roughly. Vote share. So both vote share wise and seat wise, BJP was very close to TMC.
[00:11:53] Now that's one state BJP may score. That's one state that BJP would be desperate to score. Now if you talk to a lot of TMC party members they completely will rule out the fact that BJP could score more than them.
[00:12:10] A lot of people rule out the fact that BJP could score more than them but the fact is that it's the only possible place where BJP could look at scoring. But then would that amount suffice the Bharatiya Janata party?
[00:12:25] That's the point I wanted to make. The last point I wanted to make is as follows. You see all this alliance of NDA, a lot of these alliance of NDA, look at Ajit Pawar.
[00:12:39] Are with NDA because they don't have a choice. Because either they are with NDA or with Arvind Kejriwal in the prison. So a lot of these people are thanks to that. Now what really happens if Bharatiya Janata party is not able to get 275 seats? What happens then?
[00:12:59] If they don't get 275 they don't have absolute majority. That means they will be dependent on their allies to form a majority. And if they are dependent on their allies to form a majority the allies may support them.
[00:13:13] Would they want to see Narendra Modi and Amishha again as the Prime Minister and their number two? Would they want to see? This is a question. So for Bharatiya Janata party it's actually their target is dual.
[00:13:26] One is to ensure that Bharatiya Janata party in their own accord crosses 300. Once they cross 300 then this 400 par and all will happen easily. Because the current alliance and even people who are not alliance, people like Sharad Pawar may come and join.
[00:13:43] Whatever 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 seats they have they may come and join. So a lot of people will join so this Charso par is not going to be very difficult.
[00:13:50] So their objective definitely would be to ensure that 300 par to karna hi hai on their own accord, on their own steam. And then of course the thing is how much more they can get if it's going to be 350, 360, 370.
[00:14:04] That is something that they will try their best but the initial part is to ensure that they cross 280. Now by the looks of it, by the overall looks of it like I told you before I continue to say that.
[00:14:15] While the HBJP still seems to be having but the match is getting tougher by the day. That too is a fact. Till I see you next time that is tomorrow at 10 PM. Namaskar.
[00:15:01] Thank you.