"The Weekly MoneyClip": Decoding Truth Social, Monetary Policy, Jobs Report, Tesla, and Playboy A.I.!

[00:00:00] What is going on with the Trump stock? Tesla updates their self-driving software, a review

[00:00:17] of the latest jobs report, Playboy being used in academia and more.

[00:00:22] Welcome back to the weekly money clip. In a market with millions of podcasts, it is tough

[00:00:27] to stay on top of the essential business and tech stories beyond headlines.

[00:00:31] This week we will be counting down five key moments from last week to give you context

[00:00:35] for the week ahead. As always, clips are under five minutes from voices you trust, adding

[00:00:40] context to headlines from the week behind to prepare you for the week ahead.

[00:00:45] Before we jump in, let's review the top headlines.

[00:00:49] This week in the worlds of business technology and markets, one of the most significant

[00:00:52] stories was arm holdings staggering 48% surge in share value driven by the artificial intelligence

[00:00:59] spending boom. This reflects not only the growing importance of AI in various sectors, but also

[00:01:04] the potential for further innovation and expansion in the tech space.

[00:01:09] AI is being seen as a transformative force with applications ranging from smartphones

[00:01:14] to automobiles and smart home devices, indicating a massive shift in how technology is integrated

[00:01:20] into our daily lives. In another major story, IBM announced a $500 million enterprise AI

[00:01:27] venture fund aimed at investing in the future leaders of AI, highlighting the increasing

[00:01:32] investment and confidence in AI technologies to revolutionize industries and business processes.

[00:01:39] Sony's release of the Alpha 9.3, the world's first full frame camera with a global shutter

[00:01:44] system, was also a noteworthy technology story showcasing the continual push for innovation

[00:01:50] in the consumer electronics sector. Global economic concerns such as inflation and banking

[00:01:55] stability continue to headline financial news indicating a period of significant change

[00:02:01] and potential volatility in the markets. Those were the key headlines.

[00:02:05] Now let's dive into the stories behind the headlines.

[00:02:08] This week we welcome Josh Hammer, Kenny Polkari, Simpson Garfinkel, and Mitch Rochelle.

[00:02:14] At number five in our countdown, we begin with Josh Hammer. He is the Newsweek opinion

[00:02:19] editor, host of the Josh Hammer show, syndicated columnist and Edmund Burke Foundation research

[00:02:25] fellow. Here he discusses the uncertain future of former President Trump's social media

[00:02:30] platform, Truth Social. Following Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, the demand for alternative

[00:02:36] free speech platforms decreased significantly. The business fundamentals of Truth Social,

[00:02:43] using user base and revenue streams, don't inspire confidence. With Twitter now allowing

[00:02:48] previously banned individuals back on the platform, Trump's market following has dwindled.

[00:02:54] Hammer questions whether Trump should consider selling his shares in the next six months,

[00:02:59] given the platform's shaky prospects. Ultimately, Hammer predicts continued volatility for

[00:03:05] Truth Social stock as the platform struggles to find its footing in the changing social

[00:03:10] media landscape. Here is the entire segment.

[00:03:13] Unfortunately for former President Trump, I only anticipate that Truth Social stock price

[00:03:19] is going to continue to be volatile. And there is a very simple and obvious explanation

[00:03:25] for this, which is that the market for alternative so-called pro free speech social media

[00:03:31] platforms really crashed and totally ended in large part after Elon Musk took over

[00:03:38] Twitter. So if you go back during 2020-2021, the so-called free speech app by that time was

[00:03:44] Parler, then you had the rise of Getter, which still exists although it has lost a lot of its users,

[00:03:50] is my understanding. And then you had Truth Social. Well, what did all of Parler, Getter and

[00:03:55] Truth Social have in common? Well, they were all apps that are predicated upon fast tweets

[00:04:01] or they're not literally tweets but they're posts that function and look like tweets. So

[00:04:06] quick posting essentially in real time and they were trying to provide an alternative to Twitter

[00:04:12] back when Twitter was ruled by Jack Dorsey and the Jack Dorsey regime, the the Anchance regime,

[00:04:18] you might say, to kind of borrow from French Revolution and that. And Elon Musk turned

[00:04:25] all of that on its head. He took over and he largely made Twitter, I guess we're calling

[00:04:30] it X these days, a free speech platform. And that had the obvious effect of just totally

[00:04:36] dulling the market for alternatives. So when you start getting into the nuts and bolts as to

[00:04:42] what kind of user-based Truth Social has, what kind of cash reserves they have, what kind of

[00:04:47] revenues and profits and all that, it's not necessarily going to look amazing. There's

[00:04:52] a platform that ultimately revolves around one person, Donald J. Trump. And the market

[00:04:57] for that is just seriously diminished after Twitter, again has allowed so many people back

[00:05:02] onto his platform who were previously banned from using it. Folks like Laura Loomer, Alex Jones,

[00:05:09] James O'Keefe, people like that, all of whom were banned from the pre-Elon Musk regime in

[00:05:13] Twitter but are now let back on the platform. So unfortunately for Donald Trump's perspective,

[00:05:18] I just don't see the situation with Truth Social necessarily stabilizing or getting

[00:05:24] any better. That all raises the more interesting question as to whether he should try to find a way

[00:05:28] to sell his shares that are currently subject to a lockup agreement at some point over the next

[00:05:33] six months or so, whether or not he can get bored or shareholder approval to do that. All

[00:05:38] of that is an interesting conversation but is somewhat extraneous to the current topic. So

[00:05:43] for present purposes, if I say I do expect Truth Social to continue to be most volatile.

[00:05:48] We now continue the countdown with number four. We join Kenny Polkari. He is the founder of Case

[00:05:58] Capital Advisors. This clip is a snapshot from Kenny's commentary this week. He addressed stocks

[00:06:03] and bonds facing pressure amid uncertain economic data. Also, Federal Reserve chiefs discussed the

[00:06:09] possibility of three rate cuts causing confusion as the strong economic data might not support

[00:06:15] this move. Yields for 10-year and 2-year bonds reached 4-month highs. Oil prices are rising

[00:06:22] due to demand and tensions in the Middle East while gold hit $2,300 but could not sustain the level.

[00:06:29] The market's lack of confidence led to a fall. Powell's reassurance that there is no rush to

[00:06:33] cut rates was interpreted differently by investors creating further confusion.

[00:06:38] Despite this uncertainty, it is advised to stay cautious and informed. Let's join Kenny now.

[00:06:44] Good morning. Today is Wednesday, April 3rd. I am Kenny Polkari for Center Clip. He has a quick

[00:06:50] update and some thoughts on what happened to the market yesterday and where I think potentially

[00:06:55] we're headed. We can dive right in stocks and bonds as you know came under pressure yesterday

[00:07:00] as investors are navigating the sea of economic data, which is not at the moment very uncertain.

[00:07:07] It appears to be very strong the economic data and that's causing confusion in the

[00:07:12] markets because we had two Fed heads come out yesterday talking about, you know, we can all expect

[00:07:16] three rate cuts and they keep talking as if, you know, the Fed is prepared to cut rates yet the

[00:07:21] economic data is not supporting a rate cut. The economy remains strong. The market head

[00:07:26] remains strong. We're kissing all-time highs and so there's some confusion, right? What is

[00:07:30] the answer? Are we cutting rate or not cutting rates? I think partly the market is so focused

[00:07:35] on these rate cuts that it can't seem to get out of its own way. In any event,

[00:07:39] the conflicting message has left a lot of investors scratching their heads, unsure of which

[00:07:43] direction, which way to go. And so therefore when there's uncertainty in the market,

[00:07:47] what do we see happen? We see stock sell-off, bonds sold off. 10 year and two year yields now

[00:07:53] are at four montais. At 10 years, yielding 4.36 to 2 years, only 4.71%. So as I said

[00:08:01] yesterday, 5% is going to be that number. Fourth of the go is 5%. It's going to be the

[00:08:05] number that really will present some headwinds for the market. But until then, I think the

[00:08:10] market is just backing off as it remains confused. And like I said, the market doesn't like uncertainty

[00:08:17] today. We've got four more Fed headstocking. We've got Rafi Bostick was this morning.

[00:08:23] We've got Jay Powell at 12.30. We've got two Fed governors, Mishie Bowman and Adriana Cougla,

[00:08:28] but that are also going to give their opinion on what we think rates are going,

[00:08:32] what the market is going, what investors can expect. In my mind, I think they spend way too

[00:08:37] much trying to pinpoint when we're going to get a rate cut. Listen, let's check the box. We all

[00:08:42] know that the next moving rate is most likely down, although it's not a guarantee that it's

[00:08:47] most likely down. So we can all agree on that. The question is timing. And my argument is you

[00:08:52] can't really time it because the economic data that the Fed is so dependent on is not

[00:08:57] suggesting a rate cut at the moment. So the idea that they keep continue to tell us that we can

[00:09:03] expect three rate cuts and multiple rate cuts in 2024 is illogical to me because the data doesn't

[00:09:10] confirm it. One way or the other, we saw oil prices continue to rise. You know what that's

[00:09:14] all about kind of the oil demand, the production cuts in OPEC as well as the tension, the

[00:09:19] ongoing tension in the Middle East. Gold pierced $2,300 yesterday. A number that I thought

[00:09:25] yesterday's note, I told you it felt like it wanted to test, but it felt like it was going to get

[00:09:29] a run into resistance and really get tired once it got there. So it tested it yesterday,

[00:09:34] it closed below. It tested it overnight this morning, 23.08. And then it backed off at 22.95.

[00:09:39] So we can see how gold continues to move its way up. And there's a lot of reasons that

[00:09:44] gold is moving up at the moment. A lot of it is just based around again, the uncertainty,

[00:09:48] right? And gold is very certain in terms of people feel safety in gold.

[00:09:54] Looking ahead, futures this morning were indicating that the market's a little bit lower,

[00:09:57] the market is now open. It's kind of waffling around as it continues to look for direction

[00:10:01] that's going to pay attention, all kinds of attention to the Fed heads today,

[00:10:05] what they say, what the market hears versus what these Fed heads say because that's another

[00:10:10] issue. Jay Powell has been very clear he's been talking about holding rates higher for longer,

[00:10:14] no rush to cut, the economy's not going to do a recession. But yet the market and investors

[00:10:20] don't hear that same message, which is what causes the confusion. In any event, it does present kind

[00:10:25] of a challenging landscape here over the short term. It's not a reason to get out of the market,

[00:10:30] as a long-term investor you should ride the wave and take advantage of the chaos

[00:10:34] by putting new money to work in sectors that go on sale, right? I would just do

[00:10:39] advise you to remain cautious, but stay informed as we navigate through certain times.

[00:10:45] You can always reach out. I'm happy to talk to you about long-term wealth planning. Give me a buzz.

[00:10:49] Always happy to talk. Until tomorrow, take good care.

[00:10:55] The world's best known investor and Wall Street expert Warren Buffett once said,

[00:11:00] Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those

[00:11:04] who take the subway. Mr. Buffett's quote is remarkably accurate, but how many people would

[00:11:09] rather receive advice from him than someone simply guessing? Welcome to Buy, Hold, Sell,

[00:11:14] your single source for Wall Street knowledge and profitable guidance. Please join me, Todd

[00:11:18] Schoenberger and fellow trader Tobin Smith, as well as host Veronica Duto. For a podcast

[00:11:24] known to move the needle for investors, Tobin and I are seasoned Wall Street executives

[00:11:28] with deep investment experience and we are prepared to share our advice to those who

[00:11:33] choose to listen. Download Buy, Hold, Sell today on the Evergreen Podcast Network or your favorite

[00:11:38] podcast channel. Welcome back to number three in our weekly countdown with Simpson Garfinkel.

[00:11:45] He is a science journalist who has published hundreds of articles in newspapers and magazines

[00:11:50] and 17 books. Research interests broadly include data science ethics, digital forensics,

[00:11:57] personal information management, counterintelligence and counterterrorism.

[00:12:01] He is currently chief scientist, Basis Tech LLC. In this piece he comments on Tesla and recent news

[00:12:08] regarding their self-driving program. Garfinkel urges listeners to stay grounded amidst tech mania.

[00:12:15] Trust in innovators like Elon Musk. Simpson shares that recently in his Tesla he encountered the

[00:12:20] upgrade to a newer version of the full self-driving mode. This upgrade shifted from 300,000 lines

[00:12:26] of C++ code to neural network technology trained on millions of driver videos.

[00:12:32] The idea is to let go of control and let the Tesla model Y take the lead.

[00:12:37] But questions linger, how was the previous code tested? Can we confirm its efficiency?

[00:12:42] The system has shown glitches like running red lights in the rain.

[00:12:46] The shift from custom code to video-trained AI raises eyebrows.

[00:12:50] Can we trust AI more than humans? What else did Simpson have to say on this tech update?

[00:12:55] Here is the audio op-ed now. Hi, this is Simpson Garfinkel for CenterClip talking about technology

[00:13:02] telling you not to fear the reaper and to put your trust in Elon Musk. Let me explain.

[00:13:08] I sometimes drive at Tesla and when I got into the Tesla this morning I was told that the

[00:13:14] self-driving software, the full self-driving mode had been upgraded to version 12.3.3.

[00:13:22] And that this new version instead of consisting of 300,000 lines of hand written C++ code was instead

[00:13:32] trained on millions of video clips of people driving and used advanced neural network technology.

[00:13:41] And this was supposed to make me feel safer about putting my hands into the good driving

[00:13:49] skills of the Tesla Model Y and allowing it to take control and do all the driving.

[00:13:55] And I'm thinking what? The old full self-driving mode was running on 300,000 lines of hand written

[00:14:03] C++ code and they never told anybody and like this was supposed to be a good thing in the state

[00:14:10] of the art. Like what were they doing? How was that code tested? Do we even know?

[00:14:16] Do we even care? Like why are they even telling me details like this? Why are they advertising

[00:14:23] that their new system is so wonderful because it was trained on millions of driver's clips?

[00:14:29] I mean how many of those clips have ambulances pulled over to the side of the road which we

[00:14:36] know that the full self-driving mode has crashed into on occasion and how many of those have

[00:14:42] cars crossing illegally? Like I don't know. Like I'm not saying anything good or bad about the full

[00:14:48] self-driving mode. I did try it out today. It did try to drive through a red light. I did have to put

[00:14:53] my foot on the stop pedal but to be fair it's raining right now and it did say that the

[00:15:00] full self-driving mode may be impaired because it's raining and I guess that's sort of like

[00:15:05] getting into a taxi where the driver of the taxi says I might be a little impaired because

[00:15:11] I've been drinking but that's okay because at least it's not raining. Anyway, should you trust the

[00:15:17] full self-driving mode or is it safer on average than human beings really are? I honestly don't

[00:15:23] know. I tried it out. I've tried it out a few times. It's a little creepy but what really

[00:15:29] gets me is this idea that the code was previously based on 300,000 lines of handwritten C++

[00:15:38] code and that now they feel so bad about that that they're telling me that it's now trained

[00:15:44] on millions of video clips. So this is Simpson Garfinkel for Talking About Technology for CenterClip.

[00:15:55] Welcome back. At number two this week we have Mitch Rochelle with an analysis on the most recent

[00:16:01] jobs report. Mitch is a media commentator, macro strategist, podcaster and public speaker on the

[00:16:07] economy, real estate and policy. He can be seen regularly on Fox News, Fox Business and News

[00:16:13] Nation. In this piece, Mitch balances the overall good news with some complexity behind the

[00:16:19] promising headline numbers. What do these numbers say about what the Fed sees coming?

[00:16:23] Let's join Mitch now. Mitch Rochelle here with a money clip on jobs Friday

[00:16:30] looking at the March jobs report. Better than expected, 303,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate

[00:16:38] felt the 3.8% really good news. The jobs market remains strong and in fact wages, real wages

[00:16:48] meaning wages adjusted for inflation are still positive. We're seeing wage gains slowed down

[00:16:54] a bit. They were year over year running around 5% plus now they're 4.1% but that's still a good

[00:17:01] percentage point higher than the annual rate of inflation. All good news. A few things sort of behind

[00:17:08] the numbers that I wanted to dig into. Healthcare led the way creating 72,000 plus jobs in a month

[00:17:16] in March. Government created 71,000 jobs and we're seeing a trend where about 25% of the jobs

[00:17:26] being created coming from government. There's a little bit of an embedded subsidy there where

[00:17:32] government is fueling job growth but government isn't the only driver. Again, good news. Leisure

[00:17:38] and hospitality grew by almost 50,000 jobs and now the level of leisure and hospitality

[00:17:44] jobs in this economy is roughly where it was before COVID. That industry has certainly bounced back.

[00:17:50] All good news. A couple of things though behind the numbers. Even the Fed is signaling this.

[00:17:55] We're seeing that the immigration situation is a contributing factor to jobs gain. Some of

[00:18:03] the folks that are coming across the border are fueling in terms of supply of jobs, some of

[00:18:09] the jobs that are out there. However, a sign of a healthy economy is one that has demand for jobs

[00:18:16] and the Labor Department earlier this week said that there are 8.8 million job openings. Again,

[00:18:21] this is a package of really good news. Now before I give a total pat on the back to the Fed for

[00:18:31] doing its job to fulfill its mandate to strive for full employment, I do want to look at one

[00:18:37] thing that's buried in these numbers, which is professional and business services only created

[00:18:44] 7,000 jobs. Now business and professional services had been a major driver of job growth

[00:18:51] throughout much of this job's recovery and now it looks like they're scaling back. It's not a

[00:18:56] negative number, which would be worrisome like the utility sector that actually generated

[00:19:02] negative job growth, but it is a little worrisome because these are the jobs, these are the white

[00:19:09] collar jobs, professional services firms, accountants, lawyers, engineers, other business

[00:19:14] services like technology spend within companies. It seems as though those sectors are dialing back.

[00:19:21] This is business to business consumption generally. And when business to business

[00:19:26] consumption starts to slow down, you have to ask yourself, what do CEOs of companies know

[00:19:32] that we don't know if they're starting to dial back some of this discretionary corporate spend?

[00:19:38] Is it that they see trouble down the road or are they trying to manufacture corporate profits by

[00:19:44] cutting back expenses? Two things are bad there. One is if they see trouble down the road,

[00:19:49] that's a signal that we may need to concern ourselves with. The other thing is if they're

[00:19:56] manufacturing profits by cutting back spend, cutting back on overhead, that means that the

[00:20:02] stock market which is anticipating earnings growth may not get the earnings growth that they desire.

[00:20:08] So overall I think a very strong jobs report and I think you're going to see the Biden

[00:20:16] administration take a victory lap. However, in any report there's always a few nuggets

[00:20:22] that have me concerned. And the one in this report is professional and business job growth.

[00:20:28] Mitro Shale with your money clip on Job Friday on CineClip.

[00:21:23] To round out our countdown this week, we again joined Simpson Garfinkel on a story that involves

[00:21:31] Playboy and technology. In 1983 at the architectural machine group later known as the MIT Media Lab

[00:21:38] had two women, Pam and Lena, images of women's faces used for computer graphics demonstrations.

[00:21:44] They were later revealed to be derived from Playboy centerfolds.

[00:21:48] IEEE recently banned Lena's use in publications due to appropriateness concerns. At an AAIA conference,

[00:21:55] Simpson tells the story of an objection to revealing computer generated images of women

[00:21:59] that was dismissed by a graduate student citing having received faculty approval.

[00:22:04] The issue reflects a long standing struggle in computer graphics with inappropriate portrayal

[00:22:09] of women causing harm and exclusion. Recognizing the need for change, IEEE's ban on Lena

[00:22:15] signifies progress towards more respectful content in academic computing. This is the

[00:22:21] entire segment from Simpson. When I was a freshman, I took a course in computer graphics at MIT

[00:22:27] and at the lab, the test image for a lot of the demonstrations of algorithms was an image

[00:22:34] of a woman's face and she was called Pam. And there was another woman's face that we also

[00:22:40] used for test images and her name was Lena. And I had been working in the lab for about a year

[00:22:47] when I found out that Pam and Lena were actually Playboy centerfolds and some of the older

[00:22:54] students in the lab actually had scans of the entire Playboy centerfold that they would

[00:23:00] put on the monitors from time to time. So this was in 1983, this was at the

[00:23:06] architectural machine group which was the precursor to the MIT Media Lab. And this is news today

[00:23:14] because the IEEE, the Institute for Electrical and Electronic Engineers, which is one of the

[00:23:21] major computer science publishers in the world has banned the use of the test image Lena

[00:23:30] in all IEEE publications. And this is a really big deal. So back in 1996, there was an article

[00:23:40] that was published in another IEEE publication called A Note on Lena which said, you know,

[00:23:46] like maybe we shouldn't be using a Playboy centerfold for our test images and it really

[00:23:54] wasn't taken that well at the time. People thought that this was an example of political

[00:23:59] correctness even though using test images from Playboy centerfolds, even test images

[00:24:06] that don't show the nudity were viewed by many people as problematic. Now for me personally,

[00:24:14] I was at a AAAI, the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

[00:24:21] a few years ago and several of the images that I saw on the screen were photographs of

[00:24:28] computer models of a woman where her dress was up above her pelvic area and it was

[00:24:37] quite revealing and it was also computer generated. And I raised as an issue at the time to the

[00:24:44] graduate student who was from China that this was not an appropriate image to be showing at

[00:24:50] a professional conference and he responded that his advisor, a professor at a California

[00:24:57] computer science department had looked at the slides and had seen no problems with them

[00:25:01] and in any event he was doing a literature review and that image had appeared

[00:25:05] in several other documents, several other publications as well. So computing has long

[00:25:12] had a problem that computer graphics has long had a problem with the inappropriate display

[00:25:17] of women. It causes harm, real harm in people who experience these images because it makes them

[00:25:26] feel that they don't put some people makes them feel that they don't belong or it makes them feel

[00:25:31] that we don't value the contributions of women and see them primarily as objects to look at rather

[00:25:38] than colleagues to interact with. So I'm pleased that IEEE has banned the use of Lena. I hope

[00:25:46] that other equally disturbing uses of female and male sexualized imagery has no role in academic

[00:25:58] computing and this is a good step. So this is Simpson Garfinkel for CenterClip.

[00:26:08] That's it for this week. Please remember this episode presents the personal opinions of these

[00:26:13] individuals and should not be viewed as investment advice. Thank you to Josh Hammer, Kenny Polkari,

[00:26:19] Simpson Garfinkel, and Mitch Rochelle. For their work and more in real time please visit

[00:26:25] centerclip.com. This show has been produced in collaboration with Crosscheck Media Management.

[00:26:31] Crosscheck redefines family office services with a distinctive blend of financial expertise,

[00:26:37] media innovation, and alternative investments. One topic at a time, leaders on both sides,

[00:26:43] always under five minutes. That is elevating discourse. Again, centerclip.com for more throughout the

[00:26:49] week we'll be back next week. This has been the Weekly Money Clip.

[00:26:53] Hi, my name is Joe Grogan. And I'm Eric Ulin for DCEKG.

[00:27:10] DCEKG is all about the how and why of Washington D.C. What's going on? What's going on behind

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[00:27:40] really good at explaining to me some of the things that I wasn't seeing. And I hope our

[00:27:44] guests will get the same type of insights. I always found myself talking to Joe when I couldn't

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