Market Mayhem Unleashed: Explosive Insights with Jeffrey Hirsch on 'Buy Hold Sell'

[00:00:04] Stocks are on the tear, 7 straight days of gains. It's the first and longest streak we've seen in 2 years. Get Wall Street, everybody's happy. Yields are down, oil is down, and everybody's thinking that because of the seasonality, we're gonna see updates from now until the rest of the year.

[00:00:21] Welcome everyone to Buy Hold Sell, I am your trader Todd Schoenberger, and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith out in Sunny and Hot, Scottsdale, Arizona. That isn't being jerseyed now, trust me! Absolutely. Seaside Heights, baby.

[00:00:37] So we have a very special guest who is coming back to the show today because he actually has predicted this and he has it in writing for everyone. Jeffrey Hirsch, the editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders Almanac. Jeff, welcome back to Buy Hold Sell.

[00:00:52] Good to be with you guys, man. You get the victory lap, Jeff. You definitely get the... What I'm blown away by is, it seems like everybody became a seasonality freak. You've created and unleashed a torment. I've never heard so many fundamentalists as well as technical analysts,

[00:01:10] all using the Jeff Hirsch motto. So I think there's some royalties due to you, brother. Well, you know, with the Almanac in its 57th year, we've been kind of at this for a little while. You know, hats off to my late father, Yelharsh,

[00:01:24] but it's kind of encouraging on one level to hear people talking about seasonality, add some sort of street cred to it. I am a big proponent of using fundamentals and technicals along with seasonals. I have an argument with some technical analyst friends

[00:01:38] that seasonality is just another form of technical analysis, looking at price over time. But it also concerns me, you know, that everyone's jumping on the bandwagon, I'm not sharing it as well. So, you know, it's not going to be this easy.

[00:01:51] The cycles aren't going to track so perfectly as they have been the four year and the seasonal cycles. It just, you know, I said we have, we used to have a sticker on my father's office door that walking on water indicator, you know,

[00:02:04] when you're right for a long time, you got to be careful. You got to watch the hubris. So we're looking for seasonals to either perform like they are supposed to or not. If they don't, it becomes an indicator. When seasonality is not working, it's like an indicator.

[00:02:18] Remember Edson Gould? Remember him finding some forecasts? Died in like 87, I think. The baseline is that if the market doesn't go up during the bullish season, then there are more powerful forces at play. And when that bullish season is over, excuse me,

[00:02:32] those forces will really have their say. So we got to, we had our Santa Claus rally bet last year. We clarified what it really is. You know, we have our January indicator trifecta with the Santa Claus rally, the little seven day trading period

[00:02:46] at the end of the year and beginning of the new year, the first five days and the full month. That's our January indicator trifecta. When you hit that, the market's up 90% of the time. You know, it says that it'd be 17 and a half percent.

[00:02:58] We hit that this year. We didn't get it in 0-2, excuse me, 22. So we're watching to see if we get this year in, you know, Q4 rally, but look at some of the charts that I've, that we put out there. There's chop, there's chop in November.

[00:03:12] And you know, there's other things going on there. But what do you guys see? Well, I'll tell you one thing, Jeff. It was interesting to me in the technicals that we actually had institutional buying, you know, in this last week. Today we had retail buying.

[00:03:28] We just, we take the positions of size and extrapolate that and say who's buying, right? The other thing that was interesting to me is that I think we discount now or we don't discount enough the fact that, you know, stock buyback season

[00:03:45] starts the first Monday, you know, of this quarter. And if you look at the number of S&P companies that are actively buying back stock, I mean, that's certainly a tailwind. And we never had that back in the day when your debts started seasonality,

[00:04:01] but we're still buying back. But there still was the movement and influence of what institutions do with their money on the quarterly basis. No question. We're seeing that. I mean, whether it's the October 31st deadline, which we could get into for funds to reconcile their accounting

[00:04:16] or just a seasonal term from Q3 to Q4 with everyone getting set up for year end. I had somebody ask me, I was down at the Money Show and somebody was saying, do you really think, or maybe it was at the New Orleans Conference,

[00:04:30] somebody said this, do you really think it's the seasonality and not all the news that's going on? I'm like, why do you think that news is coming out now? You know, they're trying to get things done by year end.

[00:04:39] So it's how retail people move as a group in unison in regular times of the year and institutions even more so. And that's what really drives the, you know, the seasonals and the economy. I mean, this time. Well, you got your victory lap hers. So now what?

[00:04:58] As I said, now we watch the seasonals. But in the meantime, we put out, you know, our buy recommendations using MACD on the Dow S&P, QQQs and IWMs, you know, I call them diamond spiders and cubes. Right. I bought some myself.

[00:05:15] We put out different sector seasonal trades for all the sectors that come into season, most of them consumer, healthcare, biotech, et cetera, banking. And then we roll out a basket of stocks for our news that are subscribers using a robust fundamental screen

[00:05:33] looking for the acceleration of growth in revenue and earnings and undervalued stocks that are, you know, humming below the radar and kicking out good numbers, but sequentially in year over year. And that's had a lot of juice to it. I mean, we've talked about it before last year,

[00:05:47] one of the highlights was super micro computer. Yeah. Excuse me. So those are the kinds of stocks that we are looking for. And then we manage the positions, you know, sell half on a double, take your winnings off the table and let your, you know,

[00:06:00] let your initial best of table at your winnings ride, honor the stops, honor the buy limits and then, you know, manage the portfolio. It, you know, this last year we've had some of these, you know, spasms where stocks just, you know, shoot up 40, 80%.

[00:06:18] Then we're coming off the last 12 years where it was free money. So people were making 15% a year in a market that was 7%. And I, you know, if you started investing in 2010, first off, you think you're a genius. And secondarily, you've never seen a market go down until 2022,

[00:06:36] but you never saw bonds just crash that way, right? So everything became inverted. And I think a lot of people needed to have a little bit slap across the face to say, look it, if you bought SMCI, which I give you kudos for at 125 bucks

[00:06:53] and it shoots to $425 that we were an owner for a long time too, you sell the damn thing. Or we sell half. Yeah, at least half get your money back. Absolutely. Our price was $81.93. Oh, wow. Well, even more kudos to my friend.

[00:07:10] So Jeff, so on the Almanac, what I think is so compelling is the fact that right when Jerome Powell went into this dovish stance from the press conference last week, we've, or two weeks ago, we've, we've, we've, we've got last week, I guess,

[00:07:26] we've seen the markets just rally nonstop. And there's this feeling of optimism amongst the traders on Wall Street that, yeah, we are going to continue this rally well into the end of the year. Your Almanac though, there's a take,

[00:07:40] I mean, there's no way that it could take that into consideration. That type of knowledge. The Powell getting dovish? Well, not only that, but really just a cycle of a tightening cycle or an easing cycle. I mean, that's different. That's, that's a different cycle.

[00:07:57] That's, that's not a regular, you know, repeating cycle on a counter basis. That is a different type of cycle. But what I'm going with this is that, but where I'm going with this is that, is that how much history is put into that prognostication of the Almanac?

[00:08:14] Because it's the, obviously the quarter, the final quarter preceding an election year is always a great time to be long in the markets. I mean, is this what we're looking at right now? I think so. But the prognosticating that I do in the Almanac

[00:08:31] isn't just the seasonal and historical cycles of the four year and then excuse me, we take into consideration macro trends. I mean, our five disciplines in the newsletter are seasonal, fundamental, technical, monetary and sentiment. So we're looking at that. We're not just seasonals only.

[00:08:48] I mean, yes, that's our core, our foundation. That's our edge on others. But I'm looking at, you know, the Brazilian GDP, a labor market that's starting to tighten a little bit, you know, bonds, the 10 years been something we've been keying on for all year long,

[00:09:04] as well as the dollar and oil. So we take in all that stuff when we make our prognostications. Like if you're looking at the beginning of the book, I make that outlook. I do that in June. Yes, I'm using the cycles, the four year cycle of the seasons,

[00:09:16] but we're also seeing a picking into account what's going on in the world, what's going on in the economy, what's going on with the Fed, what's going on with technicals, internals. I think we were, you know, before in the green room,

[00:09:27] we were talking about the internals that probably trapped I think are very important. So we take all that into consideration. So it's not just the cycles in the OMAC, it's, you know, reality as well. Yeah, well, you know, Fed cycles, when you go back in history,

[00:09:41] I still go back to, you know, the time for instance of 99, 98, 99, when, you know, we had the Magnificent 7 in 98, 99, it was just AOL and JD has Uniface and Cisco, and you know, there was seven to 10 stocks that were responsible for 80% right of the games that year.

[00:10:01] And back in the 60s there was the Nifty 50. Nifty 50, absolutely, IBM and, you know, commercial credit. Oh my God, I'm not even that old. But people have told me about the Nifty 50. We are in a different economy and that's what always gets me about the seasonality

[00:10:17] continuing to work. I mean, you know, in that Nifty 50, almost all those companies were manufacturing companies or technology, very little technology. And the dot-com run, well, that was crazy. This one is being led by companies that are sitting on, I don't know, today, like $280 billion of cash

[00:10:38] that's actually earning them, you know, 5% interest on their money. They are operating at record profit margins, certainly compared to profit margins, you know, in any of these other historical times. So there seems like there's also a lot more fundamentals behind the market.

[00:10:56] And then the other thing, of course, was just the fear factor. You know, when we got down to that point that there was five stocks making a new high and 1,452 not, listeners and viewers have to understand that it's not all computers that are doing the trading.

[00:11:12] There's human beings. And there's people, there's human beings program those computers. And human beings program those computers, right? Exactly. And the most predictable one I've ever seen is when there's five new highs and 1,428 lows, because by definition that means that everybody who had to sell

[00:11:33] or was short, et cetera, all the other mechanics that make up a market were then accelerated by the fear factor of retail sellers, because you can look at the size of these trades versus the institutions. And then all of a sudden somebody wakes up

[00:11:50] and says, hey, you know what? If we don't close out these short positions, I'm not going to be able to make my 20% bonus for my hedge fund and my first wife and my second wife are going to want the divorce payments on time.

[00:12:00] When do they have to show those numbers? Well, it ends on December 31. On their year-end statements. And in order to get that lined up, they got to start making maneuvers about three months ahead of time. So, you know what? You got it. I mean, why does seasonality work?

[00:12:15] Because people are creatures of habit. Not only do we move in a herd fashion, but we also do things around the same times of the day, week, month, quarter, year. And, you know, we also have a regular election, the presidential election every four years,

[00:12:30] unlike any other country on the planet. So it's force of habit and people moving together, you know. All right, so then a big question is following us is that following your shizzle, I just like to use that word as a technical term. Faux shizzle.

[00:12:46] That, that faux shizzle that we should, you know, follow this season, what would change your mind? I mean, other than the fact, I was going to ask you, Jeff, did anyone ever, you know, did you ever see in all your work that we were going to have

[00:13:02] two wars going on simultaneously? Middle East we're going to boil up. Oil prices would drop when the Middle East is blowing up. I mean, I remember the embargo was 73. That was one of my first, you know, memories as a kid. Yeah.

[00:13:16] And then watergate it and what it did. It's concerning. We got to watch. You've got to see the market react. So what would change my mind is if the market doesn't rally during the bullish season, you know,

[00:13:25] and I, we have stops on most of our positions in O2 in 22, I keep saying O2 in 22. We got stopped out of most everything, you know, after Russia invaded, you can eat it. By the time we got our seasonal sell signal, we were pretty much in cash.

[00:13:39] So stick to the honor of the stops. We're often all wrong, you know, a lot of times it's a matter of, you know, honoring the stop and admitting error and moving on. And then if we don't get Santa and the first five days

[00:13:51] in the January 5th sector, we'll soften, you know, our outlook. I'm already bullish for 2024 because of the power of a sitting president regardless of the politics and what you think of the individuals or the parties or their policies, the point is that you're talking about uncertainty versus certainty.

[00:14:09] And if you have somebody reelected that's already in there, you're going to have similar agendas and policies, you know, civically, economically and diplomatically and for the market. And if not, you know, it's going to be changed. It's going to change. So with the presidential cycle stuff,

[00:14:25] which is all in the 2024 edition, first five months of the year, you're usually good for, you know, during presidential election years. If not, it probably means the president's good chance to get asked it. And that probably means the market's not going to do so good

[00:14:39] so well, forgive me until the end of the year. And then I have a little thing, you know, in November, you know, there's a little ding dong, the which is dead effect. Like if the unpopular president gets asked it, the market rallies. Yeah. So you got it.

[00:14:53] You got to read the TV's a little bit. You got to look at the fundamentals. You got to work your technicals, the internals that you love. And, you know, it's not, if it was so easy, everyone would do it. Yeah.

[00:15:02] It sounds like the Almanac, the benefit of the Almanac is its age because of all the lessons learned in history, you get to repeat that and follow those patterns. But Toby's right. This is unprecedented times. I know it's a word everybody likes to use,

[00:15:17] but I would imagine that everything that happens now will benefit the Almanac 50 years from now because if we had the same type of situation, we'll be able to at least respond to it. Well, we never, we haven't had the same situation for,

[00:15:32] I don't know since the end of World War II. Right. Nothing is repeated itself. Yeah. So I have a slide that I had for my members webinar. This time is not different. Remain calm. October happened. You know, it's October phobia. It's, you know, it's the same.

[00:15:52] I mean, yeah, there's some different factors out there. We got different Fed chairs. We have similar wars. You know, Eastern Europe in the Middle East. I mean, it's not, not unheard of, but, um, and I laugh nervously, not, not, you know, humorously, um,

[00:16:07] you know, you have to keep watching these things. You have to pay attention and, you know, the cycles can only help you so much. And it's not in a vacuum. But the one thing that doesn't ever change is human behavior.

[00:16:20] The one thing that never changes is how we're wired for fear and greed, but it's all fear. Yes. I was just going to say that fear of missing out is the same amount of fear as fear of losing money or not having enough.

[00:16:35] And particularly, you know, in a world war, 74% of the trades today were algorithmic trades or, you know, robotic trades automatic. The rules that they trade on are more important than it was when there really were guys down there on the floor,

[00:16:49] like, you know, with a piece of paper saying, is that okay? And our cash in was, you know, running the, the, the, uh, the crew down there where I started. I've been on the floor. Yeah. I mean, he so, I mean, I'm saying is that the more things

[00:17:03] change, the more they don't change in terms of human behavior. And when we come back and let's get some stock ideas or ETF ideas or something, I have a few for you. What about physical? With the teas. I love it.

[00:17:15] But listen, we are going to leave it on this block and we are going to come back with Jeff Hirsch who is the editor in chief of the stock traders. We're going to talk about stock picks ETFs.

[00:17:25] We also have to ask Jeff what happens or what could be rail the 2024 or on the back, but we'll get to that right after the break. Please stay with us by hold sell brought to you by cross check management. How much do you understand the future of finance?

[00:17:48] I'm Jim Rousse, a top 10 banking influencer and host of the podcast banking transform where we dive deeply into the rapidly evolving world of banking and financial technology. Join me as I interview industry experts, thought leaders and innovators as they unravel the latest banking trends,

[00:18:06] disruptions and game changing technologies reshaping the world of finance redefine your understanding of banking ecosystem. Subscribe now to Banking Transform available wherever you get your podcast and now available on YouTube. Welcome change agents to your go-to place for stories that

[00:18:57] ignite your spirit, fuel your purpose and connect us all. We believe in the incredible power of the human spirit. It's bound to lead to a better future for you. We're going to talk about the future of the world of banking and financial technology.

[00:19:13] We're going to talk about the future of the world of banking and financial technology. We're going to talk about the future of the world of banking. Add conversations on the internet for all of you to connect us all, we believe in the incredible power of the

[00:19:30] human spirit, it's boundless resilience and the inspiration it brings to our lives on the driving change podcast. We will journey together through the extraordinary yet very relatable experiences of some of the most amazing people on Earth. Our mission that through these stories we might just

[00:19:48] spark change within you and awaken a newfound So get ready to be inspired and join us on this incredible adventure. You can find the Driving Change podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart Radio or wherever you love listening to your favorite podcasts.

[00:20:07] I'm Jessica Inskip from the Market Make Her Podcast and Director of Education and Product at Options Play. You're listening to Buy, Hold, Sell with Toman and Todd. Welcome back to Buy, Hold, Sell with 7 Straight Days of Games we've seen on Wall Street.

[00:20:35] The first longest streak that we've seen in two years and it doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. With us today though, we have the Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Traders Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch is joining Buy, Hold, Sell.

[00:20:48] And Jeff when we left off at the last break, Toby teased it nicely. He said, hey look let's talk about some stocks and ETFs. I want to talk about something with the news that came out with Sam Bankman-Fried,

[00:20:59] his conviction and obviously crypto now seems to be a front of page story again. And now I think we have what Bitcoin around 35K or so. Jeff, what do you think? I mean you have any opinions on the crypto market right now and maybe some suggestions

[00:21:15] for the audience? Yes, I do. I mean the sitting Bankman-Fried thing is, I don't know, it's, I feel bad for the guy on some level but you know he's going to be gone for a long time and it's said but I think it was good for crypto.

[00:21:29] I've been a skeptic for a long time because there's not a lot of data there. It kind of reminded me a lot of Vancouver mining stocks and that kind of wild stuff. But I connected with a CMT guy named Adrian Dunchick. He's the crypto burb.

[00:21:45] He's got a big following and he and I did a paper together, a study on the seasonality of Bitcoin and it was fun. It was one of the more, it was a new thing for me. It's interesting. The seasonality of Bitcoin. Now there's a new one.

[00:21:59] We have a paper out there and it's just about enough data to cover it. And I put a little, I put the report out at the end of September when Bitcoin makes this season a low.

[00:22:09] I mean it tracks, it had a little bit of flight to safety you know at the beginning of the conflict over in the Middle East but for the most part it seems to be tracking stocks. We kind of see a 4x NASDAQ type of thing.

[00:22:22] It's kind of like a tech stock. And again with seasonality, like we said in the last segment, Bitcoin's got to have to prove itself so far so good. It's taking off like a rocket right on seasonal time. I got in the GBTC. I like the ETFs.

[00:22:40] So my best position right there. So again we've got that halving coming up or the halving, whatever you want to call it, potentially next year it tends to be a little soft as into it and rally after that.

[00:22:51] We haven't revisited those levels but I think getting Bank of Reno the way and getting some more institutional, you know, acceptance is helping. Yeah, Jeff, I mean I had a conversation with a Morgan Stanley guy today

[00:23:06] who works with the Invesco and the other ETF guys in Blackstone and actually Morgan Stanley. And they've all been buying Bitcoin because they are convinced that the ETF is going to be approved and they're convinced it's going to be approved

[00:23:24] because Gary Gensler got bit slapped by the Supreme Court number one. So yeah, I'm long riot. I'm long Mara. And my favorite one is I'm long Coinbase but I'm also long a Coinbase ETF that's highly unique from Yieldmax ETFs. That's the ticker symbol, C-O-N-Y.

[00:23:48] And what the C-O-N-Y does is it sells call options, you know, gets premium income in on a monthly basis. If I told you that it's generated about a 5% a month dividend for me and my Roth IRA, I think you know you pull your hair out.

[00:24:04] Wait a minute, too long for that. And the idea is that A, you get this triple whammy here. A, you get the seasonality. B, you get the having. And having just simply means that every couple of years, the way that Sakamoto designed the logarithm.

[00:24:26] It's got every four years. It's every 210 blocks on the chain. They cut the fee you get for mining Bitcoin in half. Yeah, it happens. I'm sorry. It's been working out for four years roughly.

[00:24:38] So what happens is at the margin or on the margin, depending on what economics professor you had in college, the marginal miners aren't making any money. That electricity it costs, unless they have a nuclear power plant they tapped into, it's

[00:24:56] going to cost more than what they're going to get in Bitcoin. So they drop out. And when they drop out, then literally nine times out of nine times, the price has gone up simply because supply and demand. There's much less new Bitcoin coming into the market.

[00:25:11] So I am not a believer in Bitcoin. It's a cult. I've known many people who like me said in the 2012, what are you an idiot buying Bitcoin for $35? What have I, you know, why don't I just burn money?

[00:25:26] And you know those same people I told that to have tens of millions of dollars of a Bitcoin. So I'm bitter. I'm angry. But I followed it enough to understand that there is a large circle of people around the world who believe in digital goal.

[00:25:45] They believe in the fact that, you know, that they're all libertarians, right? So that their, you know, the Fed doesn't print money. Nobody prints Bitcoins. You know, it's all regulated. Yada, yada, yada. I got to get out of that yada, yada.

[00:25:59] I'm running an ad for telephone service out here with George Costanza and he's using the word yada, yada, yada. I'm trying to explain it to people. Now it's in my damn head. Anyway, I think it's a good move. And then I use options on these positions.

[00:26:15] So I've sold the put options on Mara and Riot and I have one other small company that's too small to talk about. But yeah, yeah, I'm convinced that A, the ETF is going to happen when the ETF comes happen.

[00:26:29] Now you have the news cycle, the news cycle gets people new that never bought it before. And then when you get into the having, the miners get a win-win because the real high, the most efficient miners will make more money because the price will go up.

[00:26:47] But it doesn't go up enough to bring in the inefficient miners and a lot of them are inefficient. So that's my thesis. And so far, yeah, I'm up on all these things 20, 30%. C-O-N-Y is paying 5% of month in dividends and it's going up in value, which is C-O-N-Y.

[00:27:04] That's impressive. Hey Jeff, quick question. Do you include any content in the stock traders' almanac about crypto? No. We may put it in the commodity traders' almanac. We're trying to wrap that up. But I put a paper out there for the public. I've put it on my feed.

[00:27:24] You can see a very interesting chart where it goes right up on Q. I didn't get the bottom or the seasonal low in GBTC and I'm still up today almost 40%. And it's those positions that you're most nervous about.

[00:27:39] You often do the best that I wish I had put more of it. I would definitely mention on GBTC, remember this is the original Bitcoin ETF. It's a trust. It's a traxit. But it's a trust. And it sells at the face value of the Bitcoin that you own.

[00:27:59] It sells for about a 24% discount to actually net asset value. And that haircut is the reason that they've been going to the SEC to say this is not fair. We need the spot price and you won't allow us to do that.

[00:28:15] So now our investors are getting screwed by you guys being crazy. I think we may have benefited from the discount when I purchased it. I think I got a little lucky on that. So the discount is still, I think about 23% last time I checked.

[00:28:35] But you can buy an option on the GBTC and if it goes through and it converts because it already has all the paperwork, everything else to convert to a spot ETF. It will go up whatever the discount is and probably a little more. That's good news. Okay.

[00:28:51] Yeah, that is good. So let's switch topics on this. I want to pivot out of this and talk about 2024. We already know your feelings for the rest of this year, Jeff. So let's move on here because next year is a critical election year.

[00:29:05] You have obviously with Biden if he is going to run, he's looking for a second. Wait a minute, Todd, because the other elections years were not important? They're all important. They're all important. But where I'm going with this is that there's so much uncertainty that I would think

[00:29:20] and it's not just in the White House. You also have Capitol Hill politics and drama that's taking place. That's more concerning to me. What's going on with Capitol Hill? Okay, okay. They can show it personally. So let's go with that.

[00:29:31] So what is going to derail your forecast in the Stock Traders Almanac for 2024? Well, I mean, if something happens where Biden's not running, I mean, sitting president running for reelection, you have the S&P up 12.8%. There's an open field that's minus one and a half percent.

[00:29:50] Uncertainty would be elevated if that were to happen. Yeah, no question. If we can't get some functionality and compromising Congress, which whatever side you're on, I mean, you've got to kind of tap to the middle and get something done. There's the other concerns overseas, the 10-year, the dollar.

[00:30:10] I mean, these things are all watching. And from my vantage point, that will all get reflected in the stock market. And if the stock market doesn't rally during the bullish season, that won't be derailing my outlook, but it will tell me that I need to change it.

[00:30:26] I'm already looking for 8% to 12% in the Dow in 2024 based upon seasonality and history and the four-year cycle. Maybe a little more of her Dow and I mean, excuse me, for S&P and NASDAQ.

[00:30:39] There's a lot of proof to come in the pudding here over the next three months. This is the sweetest spot of the year every year, November through January and the market needs to deliver. And if not, I think we've got to be careful. But if it does...

[00:30:54] One follow-up before Toby jumps in. So the 8% to 12%, is that taking into consideration that we will have Fed rate cuts? No. Also, we could be really seeing a nice sign. It's taking into consideration the power of a sitting president running for re-election.

[00:31:10] And the fact that we've been tracking that whole cycle for the last three years, rate cuts would support that. I'm not sure it's going to blow it out of the water even more.

[00:31:21] We can get that soft landing, which some people are talking about a lot more right now. I mean, I think Powell said he didn't see a recession in his last press conference. We've all discussed it here.

[00:31:32] I think we had our recession in the first two quarters of 22 with the back-to-back-down GDPs. Just because they changed the rules doesn't mean that it didn't happen. It works for Germany and the rest of the world. But okay, so we'll have to watch the GDP, the consumer,

[00:31:49] and see if things continue to be resilient and land softly. Well, remember to... I'm going to call Mr. Diamond right now and make sure I'm long everything. So hold on. That's the plunge protection team. Yeah, the plunge protection team.

[00:32:04] And again, what we tell people, if the stuff hits the fin, the Fed will cut. Well, you know, the Fed put is still the Fed put, right? I don't know if it's intriguing or not, but when we go into next year,

[00:32:17] and for all the things you've said, remember that we had a narrative going there for about 60 days, which was the Fed is going to continue to hike that all these credit card problems and car loan problems are going to wash away their consumer. All of that was wrong.

[00:32:36] We were concerned for September's surprise. We talked about potentially a banking issue. Didn't happen. Right. That's the most it's pooped the market. The tenure did it for us, and so did conflict. Yeah, I mean, I was going to say that literally history will look back

[00:32:52] and say that it was the bond market that took the tenure up to 5.175, that the bond vigilantes, old heads bond vigilantes did the work for the Fed. And then Powell actually admitted that at the last meeting, which everybody was aware of except for Jay Powell.

[00:33:16] And so now the narrative is that, oh gosh, every indicator the person's been using has been dead ass wrong. So let's sort of clean this slate and let's just go with the keep it simple stupid here. The economy because of all the inherent strength in the US economy,

[00:33:36] the difference government spending is pretty big. Right. Yeah. There's a lot of piece of this. And therefore the lag effect of all these break heights certainly has gotten into the real state market, certainly got into manufacturing. The thing is going to come down.

[00:33:53] The economy is going to come down. But the wealth effect for the 25% of the households that own 92% of all the wealth, you know, they never stopped spending. The social security checks never got suspended. The pension plans. So that's the thing I think people have mentioned.

[00:34:11] You've heard me talk about this a lot. But people are only doing the math that sort of makes them want to be fearful. And then the other thing was the hedge funds are just dead wrong.

[00:34:20] I mean, the hedge funds have been dead wrong on the only money Act was ever made this year has been on the bond deal and the bond deal happened, you know, when Rick Santelli came on CNBC and said he thought that the tenure was going to be 14%.

[00:34:35] I never heard of one guy killing the market like Rick Santelli. God bless him. Yeah. So it's all new world. There's no playbook, Jeff. I mean, there's your historical, but there's no playbook for the macro and macro has been driving the thing.

[00:34:50] And then people just got too worried, too concerned. And now you've got to put money in to make sure that your fund gets back up so they don't take the money away on January 5th. And that's human nature too.

[00:35:04] And if you haven't ever managed money, you don't really. The little behavior of human beings with their money. Yeah. Yeah. The Fed used to listen to the bond market a lot more. They seem to be doing that again.

[00:35:15] We looked at some of the minutes from 81 when Volcker was in there and they were talking about, you know, the window, you know, if the bond yields, you know, go fluctuate out of this 15 to 21%, 15 to 21% window will make some adjustments at the next meeting or in between.

[00:35:33] So they're listening to the bond market. The last couple of years, the Fed's been trying to lead the bond market. Maybe they did. We'll have to look back at a little more hindsight and to judge what they did. But right now they're looking pretty slick.

[00:35:45] They're looking pretty smart. You know, they were a little late or a lot late depending on where you stand, but they made up for it quickly. And now the bond market is helping them out.

[00:35:55] Well, you know, we've gotten rid of the T-word, the trans, you know, it's just. Careful, careful, transitory. Transitory, I know I had to say. Very like another word I was going to use, but I stopped not using it. So what do you got?

[00:36:12] Just want to close out the show on this. Again, that's I want to pivot out of this. Final thoughts on the WeWork bankruptcy. It's a bit of a, you know, Who cares back to you? Who cares? That's it. That's all you guys have? Who cares?

[00:36:28] My Hashi son loses $21 billion that he should have never had in the first place. Did you ever have one of those types of offices? Yes. We had one with Regis. It was ridiculous. It was a robbery. Yes, it was a robbery.

[00:36:43] And as a matter of fact, they would just, it was a revolving door of tenants going in and people going out. And they could never hold an action that's part of the WeWorks problem. I was going to say my Starbucks is WeWork.

[00:36:56] Every time I go into there's 25 people there on their laptop. They can just sit in my car with my phone and do it, you know? It's like, what do I need an office for from somebody else? Yeah. I don't, Todd. Sorry. Who cares? I like a regular office.

[00:37:09] Every era needs the poster child of the biggest F up of all time. And WeWork is the, you know, is the JDS Uniface AOL of this era. Except AOL actually needs to make money. So that's not even a good analogy. But, you know, everyone has the,

[00:37:28] there's always some ancient crazy thing that goes on that becomes the poster child of free money, of unlimited venture capital, of hubris and greed. Wrap it all together. WeWork no more. That's a great sound bite, but that's why I want to ask the question.

[00:37:47] So that's definitely going to be something we can use. So listen, let's close out the show on that. So Jeffrey, tell everybody how everybody can actually access the Stock Traders Omina. Well, you come check out Stock TradersOmina.com. You come become a member of the newsletter.

[00:38:02] You get a free copy of the book and you get all our stock picks and ETF picks with buy limits, stop losses. We tell you what to buy, when to buy, and when to sell, not just, you know, what. And where to take some profit.

[00:38:14] So and follow me on Twitter at ominaxrader and just Google it. Absolutely. But that sounds great. Well, we definitely will be doing that. So listen, we're going to close out the show. We had a nice winning streak. We're going to see what happens the rest of the week.

[00:38:28] We have Danielle Shea. She's going to be joining us on the show on Thursday. And also we want to congratulate all these student athletes. Tomorrow is National Signing Day. My son will be signing his National Letter of Intent, the Play Division on the Cross.

[00:38:41] So we're very excited about that. So but we'll close it out on that high note. So on behalf of Jeffrey Hirsch and Tobin Smith, I am Todd Schoenberger. I'd like to thank all of you for joining us on Buy Hold Sell. We'll catch you next time. Take care.

[00:39:34] Now to the Jim Stroud podcast.