Empowering Female Investors and Revolutionizing Options Trading with Jessica Inskip of OptionsPlay

[00:00:06] The tone is negative on Wall Street and there's very little optimism going around. What we saw this week was brutal We saw all three major averages down over 2% the S&P 500 was actually it's actually down over 10% Since its peak back when July 31st

[00:00:22] So where do we go? Well, we have all the answers for you today on Buy Hold Sell welcome everyone I am your trader Todd Schoenberger and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith Who I guess is hot. I guess it's hot in Scottsdale, Arizona today

[00:00:35] I'm air conditioning out here. I'm freezing my ass off What is it? It's like a fireside chat for you today. I don't know what you're doing. I know exactly

[00:00:45] Well, we have a very special guest with us who's actually going to help us clean up this mess on Wall Street Jessica Inskip she is the director of education and product over at OptionsPlay She's also an award-winning podcaster with her market maker podcast

[00:01:00] I love that name by the way, Jessica. How do you spell that Jessica? Thank you market make her HER Different perspective Thank you podcasters to DIY investors which is most of our audience but also with a with a focus on female investors

[00:01:20] Which is awesome and it's definitely something that we're big fans up. So Jessica Let's talk about the markets right now I mean you have you sent over some technical charts to us that which are great

[00:01:31] But I got to say it's a head scratcher because I'm really nervous with so many other Challenges that are taking place in the world right now. Should we be looking at anything? Should we see the sell-off continue in the near term? I think it's such a wonderful question

[00:01:45] I think there's more uncertainty in the market than ever but there's also a lot of cash on the sidelines and I think that's important to note when we see these larger Sell-offs and we have a different type of consumer

[00:01:57] So there is a lot to digest what I'm waiting for so today and this week's price action We found my very key level of support which is 4100. I was praying that we closed above that 4100 level Yes, and P500 you got it

[00:02:13] And we did which is which is great and that reason why that is such a key important level when we define a downtrend that's a series of Lower highs that was the last lower high for that broader bear market on the S&P 500 from last year

[00:02:30] We had to overcome that 4100 level for me to turn into a bull Which means it will supply and demand as it shifts it trades places That's the level that we'd have to take over to become a bear. We didn't take over that level

[00:02:44] That's the important factor number one number two is just really focusing on what's happening next week That's gonna be some key Determiners as far as what happens if we hold that level apples reporting the feds going to be speaking

[00:02:59] There is a jobs report and all of that's gonna give us some type of answer But I think it's very interesting what's happened all this week if you think about that magnificent seven the earnings Expectations of the earnings reports were actually really really well

[00:03:12] But the market reaction was poor but the market reaction of the other security spot within the S&P 500 Wasn't as bad. So so there's some silver lining there, but a lot to digest well, Todd

[00:03:23] I would I would also I was talking about this on the on the podcast I was doing before this podcast There's just some basic mechanics in in how the market works and I usually like use these sort of aeronautical terms

[00:03:35] We had a stock recently that it was an AI stock which we I love and It went from 70 cents to two dollars and 80 cents or 90 cents in about four days And and when I sent out the emergency sell this thing you idiot to people they're like, oh, no

[00:03:50] I think it's going to $20. That's unusual the market doesn't work that way There was a bunch of mechanical things that made that stock go up like that But since stocks have gone up historically since 1959, you know 30 years before Jessica was born

[00:04:05] The seven point five day percent a year You just had 60 years of games dude. Don't be an idiot and say What in the in when the AI mania hit? Yeah, we had some stocks We have you know

[00:04:19] We've already owned the video for other reasons and so on so forth and stuff went up like 196% 250 for for mega caps. Well, what that is that is not real buyers That is as Jessica knows these are momentum algo buyers that buy any ticker

[00:04:35] That is meets a certain criteria of volume and higher highs and all that and it looks great on a chart But as soon as that thing turns the algo says I'm not because the rules that I buy and sell on just got broken

[00:04:48] And that's why you get these these pullbacks. I don't know if you saw the number today Jessica but I believe that that 78 of all the trades certainly in the new york stock exchange were algorithmic robotic trades and so we're in the land of algos right now and

[00:05:06] We take profits when the algos go crazy and then we let them come back And sure as heck that same AI stock we were talking about came back to 70 cents We loaded up on it

[00:05:16] It put out the news that we knew they were going to be putting out and now everybody's back, you know in the green again You can't just sit on your hands when you're in an environment as we are right now with Jessica

[00:05:26] It says you can't we're in a whole new paradigm. There is no playbook for five percent rates two world wars dysfunctional congress 35 trillion dollar debt blah blah blah it's never happened before all at the same time Todd and

[00:05:43] People cannot just you know making a 25 return on something is three times What the average annual return is don't be a pig But don't you think I mean the thing when we saw the 4.9% gdp print and now you have the consumer that's clearly

[00:06:00] Doing okay. I mean this fear that we're going to have this Really this this consumer is just going to drag everything down into this deep recession. I don't see it happening

[00:06:11] So when you when you look at what the why don't you see it happening Todd? Why don't you see it happen? When's it going to happen? We've been waiting for this. We have over 500 basis points and increases by the Fed When are we going to see the uh

[00:06:25] For for uh for fed funds. When are we going to see the actual slowdown take place? I mean what else needs to happen and it's a rhetorical question for you But I just don't understand where it's going to happen

[00:06:34] But Jessica what I want to know is that let's remove we already know what the feds going to be doing That's been a story for the last 12 months. It's a headline story on wall street But the geopolitical issue is a big thing right now

[00:06:48] And so if you how much of an impact is that because that's got to be changing everything with your charts It it is because it creates a layer of uncertainty And I think we should dive back into that resilient consumer and we certainly well

[00:07:01] Great stat that I heard today though. Actually if you go back to 2013 when we were looking at the u.s Rating iraq That was again an unfortunate terrible situation The market went down 10 and a response waiting on that uncertainty

[00:07:16] But as soon as that raid happened the market ripped and rallied That's the only period in time where we can find something that's similar Similar is the keyword not the same whatsoever But geopolitical tension

[00:07:28] Is a piece of it and I think it's important to know what what tobi said there There is all these things that are happening at the same time That haven't happened at the same time so often

[00:07:39] But things tend to swim in different lanes even if i'm thinking about the overall broader inflation picture And what caused hyper inflation and the those weren't in the same lanes, which is a good thing It's stumped things stop differently

[00:07:53] We had our supply chain issues that that was mitigated then there was the rest of ukraine more which opened up other ones, but it's These things can stop and start at different times, which is good

[00:08:04] We don't want it to all happen at once because then that's when we run into just crazy Jessica I won't I won't pour Todd on this but I I'm throwing a couple of things now By the way Todd the gentleman we had on last week

[00:08:15] I talked to them and i'm going to get my article in Barons on this because I what I I know that people are missing and the macro people are missing is that in the united states

[00:08:25] 155 million households 96 million are getting a monthly pension check either medicare medicaid social security IRA pension we never had that stuff before the last time when I was raising you know when I was selling bonds at 18 Percent thank you very much in 1982 the deficit was $250 billion

[00:08:43] There was nobody had IRAs nobody had 401ks Union people had pensions, but union wages were also Tied to the cost of living adjustment So their their wages were going up for only them

[00:08:57] But it was a big part because it was 32 of the economy our economy and the business models of companies are so different today That there's many valid reasons why the why the atlanta fed showed 5.1 And my number was 4.8

[00:09:12] This year because 25 percent taught her to the million times of the american households Control now today in this last report 79 percent of discretionary spending the top 25 percent are not spending less

[00:09:26] Trust me. I live in scottsdale. Okay. You live in jacksonville. It's crowded all the time for crying out loud It is and you've got businesses growing going there like crazy and wages are higher and

[00:09:37] Cost of living is lower all that stuff the other final thing I will just end with just just to put in your calculus Because Jessica i'm already a big fan. There's 63 counties in the united states that account for 72 percent of us gdp

[00:09:52] If you expand that to 80 counties, it's 81 of the gdp united states the other 3300 minus 80 so the other 20 on a Statistical basis and don't throw don't send me mad letters and hate stuff does not count statistically versus these 25 percent that do 75 percent of

[00:10:14] Discretionary spending and that's going up. That's picking up whatever spending a dollar tree is going down whatever spending you know is going down the other end And that's what controls our gdp and that's why our gdp is growing. Thank you very much. I'm done here

[00:10:27] Well, first I love that thought go ahead the the hate letters for you toby. I actually answer those for you So you have to worry about that Jessica Let's let's pivot a little bit because right now we're clearly you brought up apple earnings

[00:10:41] We're in the middle of tech earning season Um amazon numbers they've been okay. I mean amazon did well Uh, what's your take though? Is this I mean it sounds like everything you're saying so far

[00:10:53] Sounds like a terrific buying opportunity at least what we're seeing this week. Yeah, um, if you don't mind Is it okay if we talk about the consumer for one one?

[00:11:01] Oh, yeah, let's go we could talk. Oh, I hit all day. I uh, I'm actually I'm warm now. I'm not gonna be there we go Yeah, I'm actually known for going down some deep data rabbit holes. Um, love it

[00:11:13] That's do it. That's what I love to do and I think what makes me better Nonetheless There is I now it's backed by data, but this is what I'm I'm seeing with the resilient consumer and why it's so different than previous market downturns

[00:11:28] One is the trend of financial literacy I love to use the platform pentress when trying to understand gen z Because pentress just used from a planning perspective. So it's not what are people have done or what's what's happening

[00:11:42] Now it's what are they going to do and a trend that popped up actually the end of last year even Around the pandemic side was financial literacy and saving and budgeting the most popular Fund for that generation. I'm not even gonna call it a fund

[00:11:57] Suppose the money market aspect is a fund is a high old savings account in money markets It's safe. It's that first entry step into the market But if you have a restrictive Fed you have higher interest rates

[00:12:09] There is another security that performs well even though we're trying to tighten monetary policy and constrain the consumer That's high old savings accounts in money markets and yields in the fixed income side And that's creating a a resilient consumer

[00:12:21] Especially on the on the older side of the spectrum because they favor those type of fixed income products But the younger generation is investing more than ever even think about broader retail participation within the market Take that a step

[00:12:34] Further there is just so much financial literacy. I find it Very very interesting now go back and think about You're talking about financial Content not necessary actual literacy, but A amount of research reports that are available the news it's available

[00:12:54] That they're but they're investing in high yield savings account Which they're getting five percent on their income and they'll say okay I'm getting five percent on my emergency fund which used to be point oh one percent that's going to pay for my new car payment

[00:13:06] So they're making better smarter decisions Which equates to a resilient consumer because they're not spending above their means and there's something else that I think wall street is missing entirely Back in 2008 and any other downturn

[00:13:19] We didn't have this availability side hustles is also a thing meaning people can have amazon affiliate links and most people do

[00:13:27] It's insane what you see on that younger generation of how much income they receive just from their side hustles and digital downloads and etsy and all these other Things that we just didn't have access to at that time frame

[00:13:39] But that builds a resilient consumer you could be laid off But you also can have other means of a source of income which wasn't readily available in other downturns That's a great great point. Um, you know on on cnbc

[00:13:53] They have a segment called make it where they show all these makers, etc Yeah, I've just found it fascinating. I mean i'm on such old school. I actually go to the publisher I give them the book. Uh, I get a royalty

[00:14:06] I get an up front payment and a royalty babe and then they make all the money I make you know I I you make more money selling the book than than less

[00:14:13] You have a lot of today the next book i'm doing is on artificial intelligence. I'm going straight to amazon I'm going straight. I'm not going to traditional publisher

[00:14:23] For a variety of reasons because gosh every person who buys the book. I also get the email address from I op them in To my free e-letter and over the time

[00:14:33] Hopefully we've done well enough that they want to get into our paid service. I used to have to have 12 people I ran one of the largest fin publishing companies in the world We had 75 people who just like plugged stuff in

[00:14:44] Now everyone everyone has a version of that though. That's a resilient consumer. You don't have to be employed By this changes everything too. I mean this changes everything Absolutely does and so yeah, I know that's a great point

[00:14:58] I'm going to add that to my list Todd and I every time I say that on the show I'm going to I'm going to contribute and I'm going to say that Jessica is the one who told us that

[00:15:07] There you go. You have to give credit where credit's due I'm not a stealer There you go. Absolutely. Let's let's leave it on there on this block guys because I do want to talk about the tax sector. We could continue the conversation about

[00:15:22] The consumer. I do have a couple of follow-up questions there for you as I want to hear about what happens when we break 4100 on the sd500. We already have small caps micro caps are in a bear market small caps bear market It's not just sp yl k ton

[00:15:36] There's a lot of other parts of the market. There's so many things so many things to talk about So why everybody tunes in the buy hold sell? So with us today on buy hold sell

[00:15:45] We have Jessica in skip. She is director of education and product and options play also an award-winning podcaster with the market make her podcast definitely check that out

[00:15:56] I know that's something we'll be doing after this show, but listen keep it there. We'll be right back after the break Bye hold sell brought to you by cross check management

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[00:18:10] management techniques and leadership philosophies that will help you and your businesses thrive You can listen to can I offer you some feedback on your favorite podcast app or learn more at evergreen podcasts.com Welcome back to buyhold sell the stock market. Oh, it's brutal right now

[00:18:43] All three major averages down over 2% for the week S&P 500 down 10 and a half percent since the July 31st peak. Hopefully things turn around We're still waiting for something to happen in the fourth quarter in and we'll uh, but we're here to answer all those questions

[00:18:58] for you and hopefully Maybe what maybe provide some um relief. Maybe we'll have a relief row. Yeah in the near future But the person that's going to tell us if that's even going to happen is Jessica in skip. She is joining us today

[00:19:10] She is the director of education and product at options play and also a great podcaster with her Market make her podcast Jessica. I gotta ask you tell the audience. What's this podcast all about? Yeah, I want to hear

[00:19:23] Yeah, it's so it's different than any podcast sets out there Especially ones that are oriented towards females. Normally they talk about budgeting expenses credit card management There's a big need for that passive type of investor that just invested and you know, v.o.o

[00:19:38] Or spy via compound interest over time. We take that a step further once you're ready ready to graduate my marketing friend Jesse Danaway convinced me to actually start this podcast and what's different about it

[00:19:51] Is i'm teaching her and so she forces me to take out the financial jargon which makes it really really relatable We've got great analogies. We related the business cycle to a menstrual cycle Actually learned quite a bit about a menstrual cycle on that one on that episode

[00:20:10] Yeah, but we've got but it's great analogies That that we bring but our reviews definitely are a testament to it women and men even we actually have a huge Huge men following so it's for anybody who wants to listen. It's from her perspective though

[00:20:24] We just break down how the stock market actually works in excessive detail, but we also have a laugh along the way You know Todd I just thought that you know everybody says the stock market is a is a testosterone driven thing What if it was an estrogen driven?

[00:20:39] There you go. Well be less emotional probably Yeah, there you go Why do you know that it's being played on apple podcast which is uh where we get the bulk of our audience as well So that's I'm sure it's going to be a fabulous success

[00:20:53] For you and uh for those watching uh on the on the television version of this episode You'll see it flashing on the screen right now for you

[00:21:00] So we definitely encourage the audience to go check it out. I know just cuz got a lot a lot to offer for for everyone So let's uh, let's with that said with that education. We need to educate our audience right now about the markets Jessica

[00:21:14] I mean here what happens if the markets continue to go down? I mean you talked about talked about the floor in the last block. What do we do things? What's what's lower?

[00:21:23] What happens when we break the floor Jessica? I don't know what Todd is like mr. Nice guy today. Jesus Oh, I mean at that point we're gonna it's gonna be a little scary Give us a downside number because the numbers I see are pretty hairy

[00:21:39] So there's different levels. So when we look at support support is like a mattress kind of sink into it It's not a hard Esther's doing again Todd That's actually from carter worth. I'm gonna get To How does it work?

[00:21:52] Yeah, there we go, uh, but it so it's it's as in it's it's layered. It's a layer of levels So right now 4100 that one's key because of what we talked about on the first block

[00:22:02] That was a part of something that needed to be overcome to put us in a bull market So now we're gonna get back into bear market territory The october lows Were found at the 200 weekly moving average and I look at technical analysis a lot differently than most people

[00:22:18] And I think it's why it's made me and I think I know it's why it's made me more successful And I'll give you the breakdown of it. So the 200 weekly moving average and want to see it sloping up

[00:22:28] That's where we made the october lows last year. That is a moving target right now. It's at 39 40 and we know the october lows were well below that that was what 30 About the 3600. Yep. So therefore that's a moving target upwards

[00:22:44] But that would be my lowest level anything beyond that We've got a really really really big issue, but I'll give you some methods of the madness You notice the other moving averages that I sent you are the 13 26 in the 40 weekly moving averages

[00:22:58] A lot of times I get asked jessica. Where did those come from? Wow Jessica, where the hell did those come from? They're perfect. Thank you for leading into that the uh, so we look at the market In quarterly views right because earnings are quarterly

[00:23:13] 13 weeks correlated very very much so so this is that Qualitative quantitative view and we're bridging those together 13 weeks represents one quarter of prices 26 is 2 And 40 is 3 if we see prices going up with earnings and that gives us indication of the trading cycle

[00:23:31] We fell below that if you were to look at the s&p 500 chart that I gave you and when you see that flip downwards It's a complete indication that we're going into a bearish trading cycle

[00:23:41] So I want to see that flip back upwards for us to even be bullish. So floor 39 40 at this moment know that's a moving target That's going to adjust so that's derived from the 200 weekly moving average as far as my lowest lowest lowest level

[00:23:54] And I also look at those three moving averages to give me the trading cycle. Which right now is is bearish. Yeah, do you um, Do you use, you know the reverse ETFs the sqqs the other type of ETFs that

[00:24:08] Essentially go up in value when the stock market is going down a value Um, I do not because those are normally derived the futures contracts and they are subject to contango or backwardation So they

[00:24:18] Deviation in the r squared is completely gone if you look at it more than a day You know, it's completely gone is anybody who was listening to that last statement just now. Come on Take a little of that out there R squared

[00:24:31] Standard deviation. There is no correlation to an inverse market beyond a day Ning Ning Ning Ning I thought my gigantic head was going to explode. That's what happens on the podcast all the time It's just

[00:24:45] Where I was talking off the line I think to someone today about about calculus is something that I actually Do very well at it's just the actual doing a formula like 10 times 8

[00:24:55] I have a real problem of that, but you give me r squared. You give me s curve changes. I'm good with that But in in in your trade, do you uh, do are you do trading? Are you doing longer investing?

[00:25:07] What's your time frame or does that change? Um, it really changes So I'm definitely a different type of investor because I work in the stock market Every single day. I am an options trader at heart. So my long-term trades are I buy stocks by selling

[00:25:20] Cash-to-cured puts and then once I own them my self cover calls to exit that position prioritizing yield and capital appreciation Directional plays. I love something called a broken wing butterfly

[00:25:31] Which is fun to explain but um, all right. You can't just leave it hanging there girl friends. What is it? What's a broken wing butterfly? So if you're familiar with options? I'll show you the way we layered on so you buy say we're bullish

[00:25:44] And I was bullish on the the cues right now I did place this trade you buy your at the money option. That's your long call Then you'd create a ball out a week out a month out or I go about 45 to 60 days Okay

[00:25:58] When you're going long, you want to make sure that you maximize your theta decay because we're buying time We want to make sure that we can sell time too So 45 to 60 days long call Then you sell your second call at your higher strike price target

[00:26:15] But I sell two of those Short call individually is the naked option, right? So say this is a 10 to 12 points right here I sell my two calls. This is a broken ring because this is not 10 to 12. It's actually five Maybe six

[00:26:31] This caps my I so when I buy it further out of the money call that caps my Upwards lost potential and but you've also taken in all this premium. So Uh a small move relatively small move by the way, you're going to make money

[00:26:45] And you're using 90 less cash than you would owning the You do you reduce the cost of that long call to so so minimal But there's always a give and take with options The give is you have a very very small amount of a position

[00:27:00] Your take is really capped your upwards potential and you'll lose a little bit if it goes too far But just still be a gain if it goes And you know, I do this in my

[00:27:12] IRAs and my Roth accounts etc. No taxable issues. Todd the other thing just quickly for income investors We've just had a wonderful run over the last couple years In energy where we're actually getting premium income on the companies that we love one of my one

[00:27:28] I love most is called the usa compressor and it's an mlp and they rent 10 000 horsepower compressors to big multinational companies in other words no one ever doesn't pay, you know what I'm saying and We will sell put options to get more income

[00:27:43] And so I just looked at yesterday from the time we bought it We bought it in the middle of the mlp, you know meltdown in April 2020, right our four dollar cost base four

[00:27:52] $4 and 20 cent cost base after you take the two dollar dividends you get per year and the 14 times we've sold the Put options our cost basis is a proud five dollars and six negative five dollars and 61 cents

[00:28:06] Now we will never ever sell that position because we're now getting two dollars A year on with a zero cost basis and we've used that other cash to buy more shares

[00:28:16] So it's it can be a wonderful thing. It sounds complicated, but it's really not and she can teach you how to do it That's right. So we do in my day job at options play. Yes

[00:28:26] Exactly there you go. Well, you mentioned that you're on that you're bullish on the cubes It sounds like you and the Invest go iqqq so tell us we got to start talking about tech right now

[00:28:39] Give us an idea give us give us the full technical pattern of what you see For the cube for the nasdaq and tell us when to bail out of them. What will they break? Yeah, so we also hit my support on the nasdaq 100

[00:28:52] So I look at the nasdaq 100 for my view on tech Because they strip out financials it hit the Lower moving average so but which is the the broader one. So the 40 weekly moving average

[00:29:04] I expect that to hold and that's mainly because of apple. So know that this is a Bet on apple even considering qqq perhaps even a better job number But it's the apple earnings that matter apple. I think there's something very interesting about them one

[00:29:19] They have an event on monday. So they're giving us a precursor to the big event on their earnings on thursday So that's important. That's a good thing again. How do you do that and not break your neck?

[00:29:28] The how do I know you were doing these sides? I was that was very impressive. I'm sorry. Oh, I don't know I was impressive. She's a professional. Okay Okay Continue with your thought please. No, no worries

[00:29:44] But apple has had a chat gbt like model that they have done nothing with Apple unlike the other other tech companies will never release a product unless it's ready for sale So they're not going to give us a forward indication that something's coming

[00:29:59] They say look at this new thing Buy it now and perhaps they're having something ready for the christmas season Who knows but any inclination of that will definitely cause the stop to skyrocket whenever that occurs

[00:30:11] And I think apple would be really great at ai they innovate. They give us reimagined experiences That's been their business model forever. I'm excited tell me about jessica inskip and what she thinks about apple

[00:30:23] There we go. I don't know if anything will come up. Maybe that would be interesting Well, I'm with you but now you're talking fundamentals girlfriend. You're not talking technical I know I am I do both. I do both I do both because they're they're related

[00:30:36] But with apple the well because technicals are fundamentally true. There's your version but the The when they have their earnings though What we forget about apple is even though most of their revenue is derived from iphone sales

[00:30:53] They also have a vision towards or are net cash neutral. That is what they strive for They have and we know we all know this that they have a ton of cash on the sidelines and only 185 billion come on now

[00:31:07] Exactly that's making money too that i'm sure would offset any losses. So Just the earnings I did the math recently because remember the another issue that's the big issue right now of apple is uh, European sales foreign sales anytime you sell a non u.s currency

[00:31:24] U.s currencies of at this value Uh, you know yen is down here china's down here you everything's down So when you reconvert that you lose about a four and a half percent haircut just on that sale However, it's offset by the fact that they're making

[00:31:39] 9 and a half billion dollars a month in free money from their you know, they're they're Short-term yield portfolio, which I have angels up there who tell me that they're getting about a 5.8

[00:31:50] percent yield on their money because they have some you know pretty cool stuff. They do that way So that's amazing and and they also have different price points in different countries to adjust for just that

[00:32:01] Yeah, well, and then I mean the other side of course is their services Income every quarter for the last I don't know 16 18 quarters has gone up and that's a high margin business It's a great you know this idea of incremental profit is pretty cool

[00:32:16] When it costs you nothing to get the customer because they're already a customer because I have one of these And they buy stuff from you after you pay the fee. It's a hundred percent profit. That's hard to beat

[00:32:27] That's just that's true and you once once you're an apple customer You're not gonna go anywhere all your devices talk to each other. I'm there I'll never leave for that reason the convenience is amazing. Yeah, well, right you are in the ecosystem. All right

[00:32:38] So, well, okay, let's get outside. I'm sorry talk. Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead What is the downside to the qqq breaking or the ndx breaking? I mean as I say micro cap index already in a bear market financials in a bear market utilities in a bear market

[00:32:55] I've never seen so many safe areas in a bear market Tech is the last man standing if tech doesn't stand. Where do we go from there? Well, we I cannot imagine a broader market rally without tech participating

[00:33:08] That's why the importance is there but it's it's almost lagging now Which is interesting because it led us into the rally now. It's lagging those Key support areas so their next level of support is actually the august 15th high which is not their

[00:33:25] Their last lower high. It's the second to last lower high not confusing at all But that number is 13 720. So that's where their floor would be which is we've still got some ways But they're also looking at their 200 weekly moving average, which again is a moving target

[00:33:41] And that right now is 12,777 You're talking about the ndx the nasdaq index. I am talking about the ndx nasdaq 100. Yes. All right, so In for us lay people s and p 500

[00:33:54] Where do I start, you know, either selling or we're shorting or you know, where where do I get Where should I be nervous and what's after 3,800? What's the next support down?

[00:34:06] Yeah, so I would say it give you what even is before there. So going back to the s and p 500 Nervous if we break 40 100 that's that is where my nervous is i'm flipping to a bear at that moment because I have to stick to my rules as

[00:34:20] Note to self and uh, Jessica a text on the day it goes to 37 90 There sure there we go. Um The next level beyond that is found at the 50 percent retracement line Love Fibonacci because it's all around you math is fine

[00:34:37] 4049 is that level then beyond that we're looking at the 200 Yes, and that That's the 3900 level 3900. Have you break 3900? I mean not only you but every other You know, kind of finalists I talked to says it's 3800 and it's 3600

[00:34:56] Roughly, um because I think what people don't understand if you explain very well But you know these technical supports these moving averages are my human standpoint since like today 76% of all trades were Done by robots, but the people who program the robots

[00:35:12] Are taking algorithms that say this is what's working. This is what's not working So do this what's working, etc But for the real people the actual you know action when I used to run a mutual fund I got to you know, I was actually doing real

[00:35:24] Investing most mutual funds can't hold very much cash Very rare the hedge funds can hold cash but mutual so they got to buy something and so they keep going for the life raft That allows them to stay, you know 100 invested, but they don't feel like they're getting schmuck

[00:35:40] Well now that the last man standing is the magnificent eight or ten or whatever you want to call it as soon as they break down in my opinion That's where you get into the all right. The world's coming to an end

[00:35:50] Uh, I mean we're gonna because that's the last man standing The people who are short or will just add the shorts the people who are Naive will just sell and a panic and the thing that I the final one I have for you

[00:36:02] Jessica is what I don't understand is, you know, we follow the tactical is very tightly here Why is it that the fix the the the fear number is is like 22 you need to get 30 just to get a washout, you know, we had 85 on April 3rd of 2020

[00:36:21] What's what's up with the vix? Yeah, so I actually would love to answer that question. So the mix looks normally at There we are so uh, uh the So it looks about 30 days out

[00:36:34] So remember the market's forward looking and then the vix is going to look 30 days out So we'll just say that six months from now, right? And it looks at spx options and it has this algorithm that applies for liquidity

[00:36:47] So something has some volume and it gives you that just variation So it's all supply and demand that's built into that 30 days The options market is changing now 53 of the options market is made up of those zero dte or days until expiration options. Oh, okay, right

[00:37:05] And so the hedge funds are even taking that there are ways to hedge daily and pinpoint certain things I actually use it as an indicator and pull the net deltas to give me a direction

[00:37:16] Very different what you're saying is is because 50% of the trades are in these one day options It's taking the skew down tremendously in terms of the risk that they're measuring. Ah Exactly now there is a I heard new I mean, this is only in the last year, right?

[00:37:32] Yeah, that's it. This is in the last year. It's it's very interesting So, I mean zero days till expert. It's not like sasebo is or occ is creating Zero day options every single day, but there's something expiring every day

[00:37:43] So they were one month at one point and but now there's something every single day But ever since the pandemic happened and investing became a trend we had game stop Now we have this influx of zero dte

[00:37:55] Options they're widely adopted a lot of retail is found there and I hear that there is a product I believe it was just released. I do not know the symbol off the top of my head

[00:38:05] But as a volatility index that's tracked utilizing the zero days until expiration option But what I do like to use as a fear gauge actually there's one for the nasdaq 100 symbol is vol cute and you can actually

[00:38:18] Similar type of 30 days out, but because it doesn't have that zero days till expiration disparity. That's a better View and it has a bit of a different it only uses at the money options And I actually prefer that that's a great

[00:38:30] So if I boil it down for the non option type person What we used to have that to tell us the fear now there's how much people money people are willing to pay to

[00:38:40] Hedge their account was the vixx right now is how that fit different and it's thought that followed options But because the dte's these one-day things are more than 50 percent the fix doesn't work anymore

[00:38:52] Is that what you're saying? That doesn't work for the fear gauge. No, it doesn't all right. Well, I was here I know you're excited. Are your eyes still open? I can't quite see All right sitting there thinking I might need a cup of coffee

[00:39:04] But no, I love this because that's a great sound bite and that's probably something you're not going to hear On the other financial channels. So it's very educational one last thing I want to talk about I want to get back to to the consumer

[00:39:15] Uh, we saw the retail sales number. They obviously did quite well Consumers still has a lot of money They're spending or not a lot but they have money that they're spending whether it's a surprise to Jessica and me Todd no surprise to us because we are yeah, yeah

[00:39:28] Yeah, no surprise, but but final final uh thought for you on this and I'm not sure if you tracked the retail sector But coming up in mid-november we have earnings coming out from target. We have walmart earnings coming out Nordstrom

[00:39:40] With all the talk about and I know this has nothing to do with with technical charts But with the theft issues that are taking place store closings across the country Do you have any thoughts at all on the retail sector?

[00:39:53] Especially as we're heading into the holiday shopping season I I think the gdp numbers They are backwards looking but we see an increase in consumer spending And I listen to more of the market commentary from the other ones that speak to the strength of the consumer

[00:40:08] Like the balance sheets that are spoken on the bank earnings as they kicked us off They're speaking to that resiliency and that spending So I would expect I would expect that to broaden But the theft issue is something of a concern. That's something that amazon doesn't have

[00:40:23] And hence why they do better. Well, that's exactly you just you beat me to it number one E-commerce makes up for a lot of that number two there's actually an index now of slippage that is being created in the 15 largest metropolitan areas

[00:40:39] Because they're not going to allow the retail guy to come on on this learnings call say, oh, we were doing great except for the slippage Well, bob you're looking at our number here and you're 50 less than these guys over there and they're doing okay

[00:40:51] So, you know try again. I mean, yeah, it's a horrible problem. It's completely Manifestally run to sell stuff on Etsy on you know any of the e-commerce platforms completely stolen in the box thing selling it

[00:41:07] 70 or 80 off the retail price in my opinion should be completely illegal because you can't do that in any other Store you get but I can do it on eat on whatever it is

[00:41:18] If not eat right any of the other ones and now somebody's doing an index on how what a you know, it's always you have popular stuff but it's whatever a Cardinals baseball cap sells for on one of the versus what they sell in

[00:41:33] You know actual price if you sell us for less than 10 percent of the actual price It's freaking stolen. Why aren't we going after these guys? Let's do that next time Todd because That's another conversation probably even a different show

[00:41:45] But we'll talk about that brilliant comment though. Just go on on the the amazon angle that that's something I think Should open up some eyes for for a lot of investors, but listen I think we said it all today

[00:41:57] What a show I want a show to end a brutal week on wall street But hopefully things will will turn around and get better Especially next week with so much going on and coming up next week. We have daniel shea barber durand We have

[00:42:11] Advisor to the stars ned ton more is going to be joining us lots of great guests lots of a list guests We know you're going to get a lot out of that

[00:42:19] So on behalf of jessica inskip who is you got to check out her podcast the market maker podcast Go check it out. We encourage the entire audience to to go there and jessica

[00:42:30] Thank you so much for joining us today on buy a whole cell. We would love to have you back Yeah, you know Todd. I hope this guest we have next week or half as good as jessica. Okay. Oh, thank you

[00:42:39] Well, I had a wonderful time. Thank you for the lovely conversation. I hope to be back as well Absolutely absolutely. Well on behalf of jessica inskip and tov and smith. I am Todd schoenberger

[00:42:50] We want to wish all of you have a safe and happy weekend and we'll catch you next time take care Buy hold sell brought to you by cross check management Imagine how fast we could solve the world's biggest problems if more sa startups would gain traction sooner

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