Serge and Shelley Predict 2024

[00:00:00] Balls, you and welcome to the Recruitment Flex and Shelley. This is a little bit of a different episode. We are doing our Prediction Show for 2024. But before we do that, we're going to look at our predictions in 2023.

[00:00:15] Also what surprised us the most? I can't wait. This is one of the episodes I look forward to. We're doing a little bit different because in the past we brought in utter guess and I'm like,

[00:00:27] Now we should just do it mean you because that way we can live and die off our predictions and just say, Oh, that was just like, Lesser we had Kim Wilkinson. And I think she got most of them wrong.

[00:00:40] No, I'm kidding. I think she didn't get most of them right. We love Kim. And we also did a flashback with Chad and Cheese. So this year, just mean you because we're in the hell accountable to it. So Shelley, I want to put a little bit of a

[00:00:55] wager on the table. Okay? We are doing around three predictions each. We're also going to do personal and professional predictions. But let's say there is one prediction that this is a prediction that's going to be right.

[00:01:10] If my prediction is right and you're as wrong, you're buying me dinner. And if it's the opposite, I'm buying you dinner, which makes me really nervous because buying dinner for me is like Chick-fil-A

[00:01:26] or five guys and buying dinner for you is a Michelin restaurant. So there's a lot of risk on my side here of doing this. So what I thought you were going to say, I thought you're going to say that

[00:01:41] I would buy you dinner. And if I'm right, you'll buy me coffee. Okay, deal, deal is done. That's what we're doing. I like it. Oh, shoot, I should have just left it. So we'll go get that wager. So what do you want to start with?

[00:01:55] So the first prediction was yours. So here was to predictions. The conditions are perfect. Women will take on traditionally male dominated roles and be welcome then. Shelley, do you want to be more general in that prediction? Because how can we even measure that? I don't

[00:02:14] even know if you're right or wrong. I was looking for data that would tell me that this happened. It didn't happen. My gut feeling is not a good prediction. What was your take?

[00:02:26] There's so much that happened because you remember the two years before search. All we heard about was diversity, equity and inclusion. And maybe I was just trying to be hopeful that we would finally see some traction that women would be comfortable taking on traditional male roles.

[00:02:45] Unfortunately, maybe some things will never change because if anything, we saw this smoke bomb of AI came drawing through and it really threw the focus off. At least the diversity piece, equity for sure. There's one or two small wins throughout the year, but not as hopeful.

[00:03:09] Yeah, I was really hopeful that everything that would happen, we would see people start to turn the corner, like society, start to turn the corner. But unfortunately, I don't see enough good signs out there.

[00:03:23] Shelley, let's put this in context. There's the other side of it. Did women want to take on traditional male-dominated roles? I was thinking much broader than just construction or heavy equipment or trades because the IT industry, the software development industry

[00:03:42] is heavily dominated by men. Maybe there was a little more inroads there, but not to the degree. And even though they say we'd like to have more women in the C-suite, if anything,

[00:03:56] I heard more women being honest this year to say, I don't want the stress that comes with that. I want to have a balanced life and I don't think it's just women.

[00:04:08] I was just going to say that. I think it's not. That has been across the board, right? A lot of people are considering what's important to them. Maybe the C-suite does not bring the balance

[00:04:20] in this not what I'm trying to achieve in my career. Maybe my priorities are different. I think we'll start seeing a shift for seeing some industries where we're seeing a lot more women.

[00:04:30] The tech industry, as an example, like cyber security is one that the numbers are getting closer and closer to having as many women as men entering the field new, right? Because there is an

[00:04:43] opportunity there. But is it a bad thing to say that maybe there is less women than men that want to be software developers? Is it a bad thing to say there is less men than women that want to be

[00:04:57] nurses or teachers? Are we trying to fit square peg and around hold sometimes and being like everything has to be equal? I'm not 100% sure that is the right thing. I will say that your

[00:05:14] prediction was wrong, Shelley. I'm just going to say it. So I had a prediction and this was literally like a couple weeks after chat GPT came out. My prediction said that AI, generative AI will cause ripples of opportunities and concerns in the world of work and

[00:05:38] was I so right? I was so right. Shelley, you can say that. You stay. You were right. I'll perfect. Thank you. You are absolutely spot on surge. I didn't really see it until probably

[00:05:55] March or April. But I remember the day you called me and said, have you seen this? And you were showing me chat GPT. Have you seen this? This is going to change the world. This is the moment in

[00:06:07] history we should never forget. That's how enthusiastic you were and people were still going, what? It does what? But you know what? I'm still a little bit surprised. There is still a large portion of the population that doesn't know what OpenAI, chat GPT, generative AI. I think we're

[00:06:27] a little bit in a neco chamber here where obviously it affects what we do dramatically. But someone working in trades. Do they really understand how big last year was? Wait AI. I see as the biggest change since the mobile phone. Like the mobile smart phone

[00:06:48] was a big change and I think right now we are 10 to 15 years later of the first iPhone. And we don't really know what the long term impact or society that the mobile smart phone has

[00:07:04] brought. I think there are some really good things. I don't know if you've read this recently, but I've been reading a lot about it. Matt scores in our high school and junior high schools and even elementary are dramatically down in the last five years even before the pandemic.

[00:07:21] And there are some people saying a big reason is the smart phone. I guess what I'm saying is what will AI bring to us in 10 years? Is it going to be overly positive for the human race?

[00:07:35] Will we see a negative impact in the long run or is it just a natural progression of what we're doing? I wish I knew what we've seen even in the last 12 months and we were now beginning to realize

[00:07:47] that AI had been around for a lot longer but just was not something that was in front of us. Like in public view I think you're right this is just the beginning because when you look back to

[00:08:00] some of the predictions about apps being developed and how many apps people download? Sir, when was the last time you downloaded an app on your phone? Oh I don't know last week. I do download quite a bit of apps and I let them go pretty

[00:08:17] quickly depending on what it is. I'm always looking for the next great thing that will make my life easier is so I don't have shopping therapy, it's at their piece. Oh it's going to make me way better

[00:08:29] what I do and it lasts like a week and I get it right. Yeah, unusual though because I think we look back to the original advent of the smartphone. The predictions were being that this entire

[00:08:41] industry of developing apps and it certainly did come on like great guns but I can't remember the last time I downloaded an app. Shelley, I have a concern with all of this because I feel that all our top engineering tech talent is focus on apps or

[00:09:04] advertising, clicks instead of building the next great things that will actually impact our society. So I read a great article this week on Google Gemini AI and wow it just stopped me in my

[00:09:19] tracks and just recently had a conversation about quantum computing and Gemini AI by Google is incredible that was the first thing I thought of and that was just announced like five days ago.

[00:09:34] Yeah, I saw that demo some of it was great. It's really impressive and it's impressive the progress in the last year but 2024 is going to blow our mind with the progress of AI so I guess it was right

[00:09:50] on that one, Kudos to me and one that you did have in this one I think will turn out so throw back to 1967, drop out and do your own things. Do it in debts and Neptune promise from post

[00:10:05] secondary institutions will drive more of the gig economy. Shelley you were right because we're seeing it firsthand in the financial results of upwork and fiber who are probably two of the only companies in 2023 in this space that grew substantially so I was seeing it.

[00:10:31] Oh, it's hard to Uber did and left basically the gig economy yeah yeah well I think we saw it and I am more concerned with the upwork and the fibers because of a lot of it is white

[00:10:43] color type of freelancing which fits really in our audience and it makes me think of how many recruiters are taking advantages of platforms like upwork to get work. I think we're going to see it

[00:10:57] more and more in 2024. I saw a recent article it was a CEO of a large company and he's like people just don't care about driving profits for shareholders and more and he was saying this

[00:11:12] it was a bad idea right. What happened to her society that people don't give a fuck about a shareholder becoming a billionaire and I like it's part of the mentality of where we're going

[00:11:25] that we are going to be doing a lot more freelance and there's a prediction there this is a long-term prediction and I read it so 2030 the majority of the workforce will be working either

[00:11:37] in a gig or freelance type of environment and I'm gonna say that it could happen. It is not out of the realm. I know seven years looks like a long time but it's not a long time at all

[00:11:51] like with the progress that we're seeing so couldoes to you good prediction and I think the last prediction was from me YouTube shorts will dominate as TikTok goes off the air so my prediction

[00:12:04] here was TikTok would get canceled in the US that did not happen and YouTube shorts did not grow as much as I thought it did it did grow fairly substantially but not to the point of

[00:12:17] where it's reaching anywhere near TikTok's numbers. But in all fairness we're seeing a slow down on TikTok especially with teenagers and that is very scary for a social media platform you start losing the teenagers you start gaining the Gen X the boomers which the numbers still look good

[00:12:41] but we're definitely less engaged and less sexy to advertisers than the teenagers on the platform so we might start seeing a downfall of TikTok but I think it's the long game here.

[00:12:54] I would say I think you can take a point for this one search because according to marketing news and we're talking as recent as the end of November they are reporting that TikTok although it's barely ahead of its main competitors Instagram reels in YouTube shorts are gaining ground

[00:13:16] in fact Instagram reels weekly usage among teens is risen to 30% while shorts reached 15% so you were on to something you were just really bold to come out and say that one was going

[00:13:33] to dominate the other what we're seeing a year later is what you said is absolutely true that TikTok will fall out of fashion and that is starting to happen. Yeah I guess we'll see Shelley let's move on to this thing's a surprise dust in 2023 and it

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[00:14:44] blues when you can have the near-sharing party with Matova. Look them up at Matova.com and let's get the fiesta started. So Shelley you go first and you can do professional you can do personally okay

[00:15:02] okay so let's surprise you in 2023. If I reflect back and put some serious thought into this of the things that surprised me that I didn't see coming in 2023. So in the TA industry BC

[00:15:17] passed the law for pay transparency. That surprised me because I thought it was going to be Ontario. Ontario had lots of momentum but for BC to pull out ahead surprise me. BC for audience none in Canada

[00:15:35] is British Columbia. Yes we've got a worldwide audience Shelley. You're going to point this out. Sorry yes here in Canada the province of British Columbia pulled out in front and passed pay transparency laws this year. When I thought it would be Ontario which is a much much bigger

[00:15:55] province and also Ontario's been working on it for a lot longer so that was a surprise. Also against just speaking to the TA industry I was really surprised by the huge popularity of Tik Tok

[00:16:13] career advisors. I know we talked about it but I didn't realize that appetite people were just starving for somebody helped me. Somebody helped me with my job search finding a job is hard.

[00:16:29] It's really hard. You think oh you know what I've got all these skills I'm going to leave my job and find another one only to find out it's really a lot of work and that leads me to the last thing

[00:16:42] that I think lines up with that and that is our friend Joel Lalji. He's really open about struggles he had to all the financial obligations and he wasn't that successful but what he hit on

[00:16:58] was just that career advice and watching his success in 2023 I think even he's surprised by the amount of success he has had this year. We saw him speak at rec fast and he admitted it

[00:17:15] was his first public speaking gig yet he has created this online advisory brand of himself and he's just becoming incredibly successful. Big round of applause for Joel for catching that wave and writing it. And Joel deserves it because Joel is actually authentic and knows what he's talking

[00:17:37] about he's been a recruiter he's been on both side of the shoe or both side of the fence. Both side of the shoe. Honestly this is what makes you so endearing both side of the fence.

[00:17:56] He understands and it comes across with authentic and we have seen a diamond ticked off all these career advisors show up most of them have never recruited the day in their life and they are giving

[00:18:09] bad advice to people looking for jobs creating even more noise which is not what we're looking for. Honestly they're just trying to take advantage of seeing a niche of people are star for this and be like

[00:18:22] why can't I do that? It's like me giving advice on how to build a spaceship. I could read some things on chat GPT and say it but it doesn't mean I know what I am talking about and we're seeing

[00:18:36] a lot of that. Perfect anything personally or professionally that surprised you for 2020. So personally now I think I'm my boring self. Professionally I would have to say I mean I

[00:18:52] knew that someday I would do it but I didn't know who but having Leah Solbring joined the higher value team. Wow I pinch myself on a regular basis like is this real to have someone so

[00:19:08] incredibly competent? Like hiring someone who's better than me at so many things I really do believe it's been an absolute turning point in my company was hiring Leah. I was just waiting for

[00:19:21] personally you were going to say that you finally met the man of your dreams but I guess that is I prediction for 2024 Shelley meets the man of her dreams. Oh yeah I don't know if that's actually

[00:19:37] been a happen but now it's your turn we're going to turn tables on search. Yeah so I'm surprised you. The biggest thing that surprised me was remember in January or December last year we were talking

[00:19:49] about indeed launching paper applicant and I had my doubts on it but when it launched I'm like there's no turning back and in the long run I thought indeed would make it successful. It didn't

[00:20:04] panel the way that indeed thought it would but I'm just surprised that they gave up so quickly because honestly more and more that I thought about it this is exactly where the industry is and Steven

[00:20:18] Rotberg talked about it during our episode with the job board geeks and companies are going to incentivizing quality instead of quantity and indeed it was leading that I think this is an

[00:20:32] opportunity for every other job site out there to figure out what indeed did wrong and just do it better because I do think this is where the market is going so I'm surprised that they gave up so

[00:20:45] quickly but they have something up their sleeves. I don't know what it is but I'm assuming they have figured out something in their testing that will come out in 2024 that will be the next evolution of

[00:20:58] this. The other thing that I was surprised is I know one of my prediction that AI or OpenAI chatGBC was going to make massive ripples. I did not think it was going to be as massive and as

[00:21:13] big part of our conversation that was one of the biggest surprise and the other surprise for me Shelley was the labor market shifted way more dramatically than I thought it would. It really

[00:21:26] shifted into an employer market almost overnight in the start of 2023 and I think we're seeing that right now so those were the biggest things and personally there's not much of change. I'm trying to keep

[00:21:42] babies alive I guess they're no longer babies but I'm just trying to maintain a very busy household with three little girls that are just getting cuter and sweeter every day. Shelley I want to jump

[00:21:57] into our predictions for this year. Okay I'm going to go first okay okay I think I've said this on other shows but I didn't say on this show this is the year that recruit holdings the owners of

[00:22:14] glass door and indeed an multiple staffing firms in Japan are going to acquire zipper cruders. As I stated before in a show I think they're acquiring zipper cruders because zipper cruders is got some serious bank finance and the stock market performance has not been great

[00:22:36] it makes a whole lot of sense for recruit because yes and bees is still something that I wouldn't say is they're strong suit obviously they do have a large market but I think it could be

[00:22:47] a lot bigger by acquiring zipper cruders and I think it's going to be cheap to buy zip in the context of things so that's my first prediction okay I have a bold one here and this is one I've changed my mind

[00:23:02] on this with the advent of a labor market shift AI type of applications multiple applications in multiple jobs with international applicants across the board I think the very quick one click apply is going to become obsolete if not disappear all together I think we're taking a step back

[00:23:28] because the labor market is shift employers do have a bigger say than they did a year go two years ago and to that focus of quality I think there's going to be more screening questions I don't

[00:23:44] think we're going back to the 45 minute application bullshit of the old school ATS but I think there's going to be a lot more screening type of questions before applications go true screening testing

[00:23:59] upfront I think is something that we're going to see more and I think that one click apply to every job is going to disappear for a lot of roles not all roles I don't think it's going to disappear with retail

[00:24:10] hospitality high volume hiring but what's your thoughts on those two then I'll give you my last prediction so is recruit going to buy zip I don't think so I think recruit is going a different route

[00:24:25] I don't think they need more market share I believe that recruit remains committed to their mission and quality of hire is a two way street right so a good candidate experience means you got a job

[00:24:42] that you're happy with and you stole my thunder because that's one of my predictions as well is around assessment I think recruit and or indeed is going to be on a path of finding a way

[00:24:56] an easy way not cumbersome but finding an easier way for job seekers to find the right job and not just spray it all over the place as well as for employers to make better decisions

[00:25:10] and I think zipper crew there's a lot of pressure from investors where's my money like hold on a minute here you haven't done anything you said you were going to do I agree that zip is probably for sales but I don't think it's going to be recruit holdings

[00:25:27] if I'm all right I guess we will see and I feel like you're holding on to something about indeed that you're just not sharing so I'll let it be for now but I can see that twinkle in your eyes

[00:25:41] when you talk about indeed what's your thoughts on the quick apply or easy apply or that one click apply becoming obsolete outside of those highball you're 100% right you're a hundred percent

[00:25:55] right I think it will very quietly move to the back of the room and we are going to see more assessments some sort of authentication that sort of thing you're absolutely right there I actually believe one last quick prediction 2024 is the year that we will see a major

[00:26:15] large employer I'm talking 50,000 and more employees that will have a talent acquisition department with no physical recruiters I think it's going to be a combination of different roles that recruiter role will be changed to an account manager that manages all the systems process

[00:26:36] and flows I think we're going to see several roles that are just not existing or not very common become talent acquisition and that recruiter will pretty much disappear but changed to a very heavily focused account manager to make sure that the hiring manager and the candidates are getting

[00:26:58] the experience they should be getting but not physically recruiting not physically sourcing interesting wow so your prediction is that we will see this happen in at least one big company now I don't see a twinkle in your eye that you know something but absolutely the timing is right

[00:27:20] the tools are here so there's been years of employee self-serve and hiring manager self-serve that the role of more account manager I love it I love it I hope you're right I hope you're right

[00:27:34] on that prediction so Shelley what's your predictions okay and again I don't have any inside information on this and kind of like last year I was maybe wishful thinking I believe that

[00:27:50] someone is going to what I call crack the code on LinkedIn who it is I don't know could be like a rogue developer or somebody who knows the inside secrets of what is holding

[00:28:05] LinkedIn back from using AI and offering it to us that is recruiters as the tool that really it should be used us in other words gone are the days of using LinkedIn recruiter search bar

[00:28:22] type of tools to predictive using all the power of the data that's in LinkedIn but when I say crack the code it is changing how Microsoft treats LinkedIn because right now I feel like LinkedIn

[00:28:40] has just been dormant for so many years not really innovative but now with Microsoft and all their focus or maybe distraction on open AI this may be the year where we're going to see something

[00:28:54] really innovative happen with LinkedIn so just for our wage or how are we going to measure this because they've launched a bunch of AI tools right in the last three four months I AI to rate your

[00:29:07] job profile AI to rate your job that's just changing to be tea yeah it's an AI tool that they've built in they've launched so how are we going to measure what's going to be a game changer for us to be like

[00:29:19] yeah they crack the code I believe it'll probably be like someone who could go toe to toe with a LinkedIn and they build a product that actually enables us to quickly and efficiently find quality certified profiles on LinkedIn there's so many pieces that are sitting there ripe

[00:29:40] but nobody's pulling it all together meaning LinkedIn you have your certified profiles right they're legit yeah cracking the code means you finally can use it as a live all in one single place recruitment database okay do you have another prediction well you kind of stole my thunder there

[00:30:00] because I believe that the use of assessments will skyrocket in popularity it will be a huge trend in 2024 the use of assessments soft skill or hard skills we already have the hard skills you can

[00:30:17] test somebody how well do you know Excel do you know a debit from a credit and I'm not saying this just because there are sponsor I believe this from the very minute that I met plum

[00:30:28] that there onto something huge you can't game it you can't try and trick it you can't AI your way through it and it gives something back like you get that dopamine hit of wow this is really good

[00:30:43] and it does describe me and yes I am happiest when most of my job is doing these three things are these tasks that type of assessment they're the next version or brand of a psychometric

[00:30:57] assessment because it's tied so closely to employment interesting I think you are right but I do also think there's all these types of assessments our hard skills they're going to come back I

[00:31:08] think we're gonna see it better than it's been in the past quicker faster being able to give us a real picture can they actually do what they're saying they're doing I think it's going to be a

[00:31:20] combination of both I think you're right on plum I think this is the wrong time to say that this segment was sponsored by plum but plum we're fans right like we wouldn't have you as an answer

[00:31:34] and a show if we didn't think you're great and you have a product that's actually pretty impressive so I'm going to change the world I know that's a bold statement and yes I have always had a very

[00:31:50] high interest in this type of thing but never thought anybody wouldn't get it figured out as beautifully as they have I think what we're gonna see and this is maybe a little bit of a different

[00:32:02] shift and even what we've talked about in the last couple years just like just hire people forget about this forget about assessment I think that is changing dramatically and I feel that I was maybe wrong

[00:32:15] on pushing like quick applied I think we need to take more time it has got to be an overall focus on quality because if not the noise of AI it's going to fuck all of us in recruitment like we're

[00:32:29] gonna be like chickens with her head cut off yes and still trying to figure out if they just use chat GPT to write the resume or is this even a real person yeah fantastic do you have any

[00:32:44] personal or professional predictions for 2020 to be personally it's not really a prediction I was gonna say that I will travel somewhere but it's going to be spontaneous because it's a big birthday year for me or you're hitting 80 finally yes yes I know don't I look great for 80

[00:33:08] I know it must be all that booster juice that I drank or something but professionally I believe there's going to be a big business opportunity for me and blend what I love doing

[00:33:21] and maybe it's because it's coinciding with a big birthday year but I've got this real ambition to start something new and do something that 80% of the time it's exactly what I want to do it's

[00:33:35] where I'm happiest and yes it'll have to do with interviewing recruiting and training because that is my happy place and what about you search here's what I'm going to predict about you yeah

[00:33:49] please what are you going to predict you guys are going to get a dog no no I know you say no but I know 24 I think you're going to get a dog Malaris only one Christmas thing that she wants it's a

[00:34:04] dog but we're not ready we're not ready shall I know I hope she doesn't listen to this one but I'm just not ready yet and I do want one and I think it's important for kids to grow up with a dog

[00:34:17] I think there's a lot to it but we will that's a prediction but I think you're going to be wrong but we'll see it in the end of the year okay for me the same thing I think there's a big things professionally

[00:34:28] that are coming in this space we are going to predict that recruitment flex is going to be double the size in audience by the end of next year because there's a lot of things coming

[00:34:42] so I'm excited about that on that note here for our wager your prediction is assessments will skyrocket in popularity we're going to have to make some clear metrics around that shall be like you should

[00:34:56] know I'm a sales leader keep your eye here are criticals and my one that I'm sticking to my main prediction is we see the first recruitment department a large corporation have zero recruiters

[00:35:12] that's what I'm picking to and the recognize zip a close second and we want to hear your prediction so please don't hesitate to reach out and tell us what's going to happen in 2020 24

[00:35:23] have a merry Christmas search our fly with you do you love news about LinkedIn indeed Google and just about every other recruitment tech company out there hell yeah I'm Chad I'm cheese where the

[00:35:37] Chad and G's podcast all the latest recruiting news and insights are on our show dripping in snark and attitude subscribe today wherever you listen to your podcasts we out