Karnataka Results Analysis: Hindutva, Corruption & Local Leaders

[00:00:00] Today on The Big Story, How much impact did Bharajyoda have in Karnaataka? I am a little doubtful

[00:00:06] the data doesn't entirely support. We have seen for a long time that state elections are

[00:00:13] giving very clear mandates. And you were saying this was absent from the BJP.

[00:00:18] I'm saying that the BJP didn't have a conversation around this at all right. This they kind of seemed

[00:00:25] awesome. J.D.S I think falling below 20 was also unexpected we thought it would be 2025

[00:00:30] but their votes share also considerably fell. Hello and welcome to this special special episode

[00:00:36] of The Big Story, special because it has our faces this time. Finally. Finally we are real humans

[00:00:43] and not. And so I didn't really. And also special because we are going to be discussing

[00:00:49] the Karnaataka election. The hot topic of the week. Hot topic of the week and the weekend

[00:00:54] and everything. But we have a little bit of a sense. You know this hard working

[00:00:58] people have been a bit of a Sunday market they have come with us we have analyzed some

[00:01:02] data some trends and we are going to be talking about it. So on this podcast we are joined by

[00:01:07] Fatima Khan who is a principal correspondent with the Quint and she's been on the ground

[00:01:12] ahead of the Karnaataka elections. And we have Mr. Thimen and who's our political editor.

[00:01:18] Hello and we are going to talk about Karnaataka. So guys first reactions.

[00:01:23] Kesar Thairi's part. Fatima should go first. She was on the ground. Yeah I mean I think

[00:01:29] covering elections if you ask me is always so much fun regardless of what's happening

[00:01:33] if it's a close fight or you know if it's expected to be a sweep by any party it's always fun

[00:01:39] to be on the ground. I think as journalists when we travel to any state be it UP which you know

[00:01:46] and because of proximity we travel to a lot more or Karnaataka which you know we don't really

[00:01:52] travel as much to as much as we should but it's always an experience because I think you realize

[00:01:58] just how politics changes you know in Yemen I think that every time a little bit of politics

[00:02:04] happens. So Pithi Gurjawa or Panachashtan it's really it was really fun and this

[00:02:10] realization was that I think this election was very refreshed to see that usually we are so

[00:02:16] you know typical election narratives over the past few years you know it's about but

[00:02:23] it's made a lot of difference. Karapshin is the main one which I don't think is state elections

[00:02:27] in the last couple of years. That's the last time Karapshin was so much.

[00:02:34] Yeah. We actually did a documentary on the hijab and last year so I was there and

[00:02:43] earlier as well but I think this time when you election reporting is a different vibe I think

[00:02:47] people are much more willing to speak to you they're very welcoming there's always the sense of

[00:02:53] I mean we're not trying to exoticize the place with food and stuff playing really important.

[00:02:58] We saw we saw on your Instagram. I was really missing Karateka food especially

[00:03:05] Bangalore food so good yeah I mean incredible. Bangalore dosha is the best. Bangalore was the best.

[00:03:11] Undeniable. So I think my morning lunch didn't have those. That's what I had unapologetically.

[00:03:19] So all of that was great and I think on the election day what was as journalist you were happy about

[00:03:26] was the fact that it wasn't going to be a very late night you know we kind of knew in the

[00:03:31] early hours. So from that perspective also it was so this sort of brings me to you Aditya she

[00:03:39] talked about election day counting day not being a very you know undecisive it is all it like and

[00:03:46] this we have seen for a long time that state elections are giving very clear mandates right so

[00:03:53] what is your yeah I mean it's a relief of course because the had the word

[00:04:01] it not been so clear we won't be so relaxed exactly podcasting you know because

[00:04:07] we are we are thinking about the Khan and I think what else you know they have seen this drama of

[00:04:14] MLA is being hooded into resort and MLA is changing sites and governments falling and new

[00:04:20] governments being built based on our as per relate absolutely you know better than the most others

[00:04:27] and and obviously we all know slightly dubious means being used to you know by MLA's so I think

[00:04:34] people are also fed up and if they feel that the narrative is in one direction many of this

[00:04:40] undecided motor they will be thinking yeah at least ability to be read this is all they are giving

[00:04:48] I think that's why even Congress even by their own estimates did better yeah then probably they

[00:04:53] would have and definitely better than they have done in past three four elections so yeah probably

[00:04:59] I think people's desire for a stable government thing which shouldn't underestimate that

[00:05:04] so Angelie why don't you take us take us taking you through the results there were

[00:05:10] 224 seats up for grabs in the Kanataka elections this time and on

[00:05:14] and that put the majority market 113 the Congress 135 seats which is a clean sweep obviously

[00:05:24] the BJP's count this time around went down to 66 and JDS 119 seats so first of all I would like

[00:05:30] to ask that you did you expect this kind of a result at all I didn't I thought I mean we knew

[00:05:37] Congress was ahead we probably thought they'll just about cross the halfway mark but I didn't

[00:05:43] expect 130 plus the reason for that is because I think they got 122 in 2013 and that time BJP had

[00:05:53] split into like three parties so the common sense that I use was if it didn't happen then

[00:05:59] I would have happened now but clearly I misunderstood what the voters wanted so yeah I didn't

[00:06:06] expect this kind of a result so probably most of us expected the direction to be in this way

[00:06:12] JDS I think falling below 20 was also unexpected we thought it would be 2025 but their votes

[00:06:17] share also considerably fell so yeah and in the especially we'll talk about region specific

[00:06:23] numbers in their

[00:06:25] so the best year so in my store and yeah and the BJDS votes have gone not just to Congress

[00:06:30] but also BJP yeah okay so let us track back a little bit and talk about Kanataka politics

[00:06:37] holistically what are the issues that usually you know come up

[00:06:45] Fatima if you can talk about some of the issues that were relevant this time what is what is

[00:06:49] Kanataka politics all about historically and now I think historical perspective

[00:06:53] I think I'll give you the situation

[00:06:55] yeah I'm older since my school is so very longer

[00:06:57] pretty more historical but I'll be honest with you

[00:07:00] this is not the thing that's like export

[00:07:04] yeah but yeah I mean I totally get Fatima's point so Kanataka like of course most other

[00:07:11] Indian states caste plays a very big role there are two big cast in Kanataka

[00:07:17] Lingayats and Vokkaligas Lingayats have traditionally voted BJP

[00:07:20] Vokkaligas have traditionally lead towards JDS but sometimes a big chunk goes to the Congress as well

[00:07:27] then there are OBC voters the biggest OBC caste is Kuruba to which

[00:07:32] former chief minister Siddharamanya belongs and then there are very sizable chunk of the

[00:07:36] Lithvoters and Muslim voters so the Liths and Muslims and OBCs have been this sort of core base

[00:07:43] of the Congress it's the base together in Kanataka is called Ahinda as like its acronym of these

[00:07:48] three communities Devaraj or Fatima had written an article in which she had mentioned that Devaraj

[00:07:55] was the former chief minister he sort of cobbled together this social coalition and Siddharamanya

[00:08:01] revived it for the Congress 2013 onwards so yeah that's been the core Congress coalition

[00:08:07] the core JDS coalition has been Vokkaligas some the Liths some Muslims BJP's coalition has been

[00:08:13] Lingayats predominantly and a lot of uppercase Yadu Rapa however got a chunk of OBC votes also

[00:08:19] towards the BJP so yeah caste has been one factor the other very big factor in Kanataka is

[00:08:26] welfare schemes I think people have very high standards for their government they want the

[00:08:32] government to be efficient they also want the government to deliver certain core welfare schemes

[00:08:38] to them and make their lives easier be it in terms of subsidies be it in terms of cash benefits

[00:08:44] so yeah these two things determine which party manages to cobble together the best social

[00:08:50] coalition and which party manages to convince voters that they will give the these welfare

[00:08:56] benefits in a most efficient manner I think broadly this has been the pattern and what about specific

[00:09:02] to this election I mean a lot of the media coverage talked about yes there were recent issues like

[00:09:07] the Hijaban there was also the Amul versus Nandini so in your experience on the field how much

[00:09:12] were these things being considered or discussed yeah see I feel as issues of course they have found

[00:09:17] resonance in Kanataka society right I think we'd be a miss to say that people haven't bought

[00:09:22] this at all right but which is not to say that these aren't factors that people do haven't voted on

[00:09:30] what does that mean right when I go and feel I'll see people talking about the Hijaban

[00:09:35] supporting the Hijaban I think extensively covered that in our documentary that oftentimes we

[00:09:40] have this outlook that okay this is political parties or fringe elements or direct stakeholders

[00:09:46] who have an opinion on this the rest are indifferent but that wasn't the case in the case of Hijaban

[00:09:50] I had you know met students who previously had some of their closest friends who were Hijaban

[00:09:57] students who explicitly said they'd look no they should be wearing a education is more important

[00:10:01] a lot of you know just like vicious communism had spread in our schools and I saw that first hand

[00:10:08] what when people go on to vote right there is this factor that okay the government has brought out

[00:10:13] Hijaban the government is trying to ban halal me the government is trying to somehow or the

[00:10:20] peripheral players involved are trying to boycott Muslim vendors all of this aside what do we stand

[00:10:27] to gain right I think what we sometimes underestimate is that people are driven by self interest right

[00:10:34] they're saying that okay this is happening with this community but what is exactly happening to

[00:10:39] us what are we gaining here and I think that is a stand you'll find a lot I found a lot in

[00:10:43] Karnataka I remember we covered the UP elections as well where we found a lot of people who were

[00:10:49] talking about unemployment and how they are unemployed but they're still going to work for the BJP

[00:10:53] because of this Hindu thought of politics right so they are prioritizing that in their heads

[00:10:59] and because this is a democracy what does get to prioritize what they want right and in this case

[00:11:03] there was a very clear case of look all of this is happening and this is fine what are we gaining

[00:11:08] right the corruption issue was so massive the fact that this is something that you've written

[00:11:14] extensively about as well that the Karnataka contractors association which is traditionally

[00:11:19] historically being a largely apolitical body they haven't really taken a political stance per say

[00:11:24] but for them to come out and say that this government is taking 40% commission for a small

[00:11:30] I think became a slogan that's talking about 40% of the current right and I think Congress came

[00:11:35] in just at the right point and ran with it which also showed at that time great like political

[00:11:43] maneuvering and insight on how we can see we can actually capitalize on these apolitical layers

[00:11:48] raising these issues when we say that corruption became a big issue it wasn't just

[00:11:54] these associations or these political players but people had internalized that

[00:11:58] Okiy to come corrupts our car which is the last time I think we saw during UPA

[00:12:01] it just became understood that this is a high corrupts our car you know it was taken as a matter of

[00:12:06] fact you asked about communalism it's a crown report we did that Okiy sure communalism has risen

[00:12:11] in the state but what else has risen it's the voices of people fighting that communalism right

[00:12:18] civil society coming together in a way that we haven't seen in a UPA or Gujarat and people do like

[00:12:22] to draw those parallels routinely saying that oh Karnataka is the new Gujarat of South India

[00:12:29] of course I mean people from the BJP have said that this is the laboratory for Hindutva

[00:12:35] in the South India and also very evidently it's the only foothold that the party had in South India

[00:12:44] so they thought that Okiy this template has worked a couple of times in Karnataka of course it will

[00:12:48] work in the neighboring states but what happens when people come together and say that this is

[00:12:53] unacceptable to us and we cited examples in our ground report for example this one Muslim

[00:12:59] watermelon vendor his cart was broken and destroyed right and the visuals were just so jarring

[00:13:06] because watermelon also right when it's red right so the red blood kind of being splashed all over

[00:13:14] they're just stuck with people we were just discussing how civil society groups really played an

[00:13:18] important role for example little things right like there was this propaganda fake news being

[00:13:24] spread about people sultan and I mean he's done a summer tharku league has done a report on how

[00:13:31] it was basically a figment of imagination they created two fictional characters saying that these

[00:13:37] characters who these people who are from the wakaliga caste they actually killed people so that

[00:13:43] mean it is a historical fact that he was he died in war with the British so these civil society

[00:13:50] groups were there they would make like pamphlets in local languages and spread across different

[00:13:57] villages and civil society groups which you are saying have been apolitical for a long time

[00:14:01] so I think they're very strong in their resistance to like politics of hate and in general pro people

[00:14:09] issues yeah and then in a polygetic world but yes when I was speaking to them they said that look

[00:14:13] it's not like we're saying that when congress will come everything will be solved right we won't

[00:14:17] hear a utopia we're aware of that but right now the immediate issue is this this rising communism

[00:14:22] and there also a lot of the fact that 2024 is around the corner in that sense also

[00:14:26] Karnataka it's extremely important it sets the narrative right when you're saying that hate wins

[00:14:32] here you're effectively setting the template of where else hate could win courageily so basically

[00:14:37] the civil society saying you may say what you want to but we want to talk about things that

[00:14:44] are more real to us things that are more they are basically saying this is what is important to us

[00:14:49] you may try and tell us that maybe communism is more important is what might work but we stand

[00:14:55] against corruption we stand I think at least there were there we was that this communism should not

[00:15:02] go unchallenged right we'll counter it we'll counter if you're spreading fake news we'll counter it

[00:15:07] with what with what is the what are the real facts and so you don't get to create narratives

[00:15:12] and you know you won't get a unchallenged run as probably they do get in many other states yeah

[00:15:17] okay interesting so we've got a basic idea of what you know politics even far back as a year or two

[00:15:24] before the elections now let's talk about the election specific campaigns of both the major parties

[00:15:30] what did Congress essentially do right this time that it got such a you know insane measure I think

[00:15:38] the congress's narrative was very clear the narrative was that this is a corrupt government

[00:15:44] this is a government that is taking away money that is meant for people and we will first get

[00:15:52] rid of this government and second we will give you certain welfare scheme that we feel you are

[00:15:57] entitled to so they have their five guarantees the congress's problem and solution is very clear

[00:16:04] identified a problem you gave the solution BJP's campaign on the other hand was slightly

[00:16:08] muddled up they began I mean their entire during while they were ruling it was all about halal

[00:16:15] hijab and all but suddenly they turned to reservation for a section of Lingayat's

[00:16:20] they didn't look like us so then they tried to do a little bit of caste engineering

[00:16:24] but when PM started campaigning they bought budgering values so I mean what does

[00:16:29] were like what is this really about you know what is your core idea what's your main plan so

[00:16:34] I think it was very clear that the congress's narrative was clear I think Patna would probably

[00:16:39] know better from the ground yeah I mean definitely I do did see people also more than that just

[00:16:47] sons of frustration with the BJP right is this sense of one the fact that you have had such an

[00:16:52] instable government generally I think all of those also there was a sense of exasperation amongst

[00:16:59] the voters that okay at least there is this one party that at the moment is standing united

[00:17:04] we have clear leadership faces we have a clear strong local leadership and it's not just the top

[00:17:09] leadership but even the second rank and third rank leaders right very clear faces that okay if I

[00:17:15] am going to vote I'm voting for this person for this person right that was a mis in the BJP

[00:17:21] Raul Gandhi Pyaankha Gandhi Sunya Gandhi all went there to campaign but after a while they gave a

[00:17:26] free reign to the local leadership meaning Dikesh Kumar Sitaramaya Kharge these people actually did

[00:17:32] the heavy lifting when it came to congress campaigning the road shows the rallies even the strategizing

[00:17:38] right even things like ticket distribution social engineering ensuring you know which cars gets

[00:17:44] how much representation in our ticket distribution all of those things were decided at a very local

[00:17:48] level and you're saying this was absent from the BJP I'm saying that the BJP didn't have

[00:17:56] a conversation around this at all right this they kind of seemed lost which which is unlike

[00:18:00] BJP right because the BJP said to be that the election machine exactly you know the narrative

[00:18:06] at least around BJP is that Amitwara is so and more even in like the local elections

[00:18:10] in like some one's ticket yeah so that is the narrative so here it seemed a little last minute the

[00:18:17] way they were trying to plan everything and you know almost I think the desperation was also evident

[00:18:22] when TV channel Lancers are routinely talking about how the PM did like 20 road shows in the last

[00:18:26] week why did the PM have to do that right I think and I always say this is that political parties

[00:18:31] no better than any analyst or reporter can then what is happening on the ground right they have

[00:18:36] their people there so there is this sensor okay if the PM is having to come down so many times

[00:18:39] in group he really like spend all this time in Connecticut it's because they know that something

[00:18:43] wrong something's not going right so interesting Fatima you mentioned about the PM and the local leadership

[00:18:49] I just have the cover pages of the two manifesto with me and if you see the BJP manifesto Narendra Modi

[00:18:57] takes success those 10th state I'll we'll also show it up in graphics and then the most popular

[00:19:05] tallest leader of Karnataka Yadurappa he's literally sideline so yeah and like then there is

[00:19:13] JP Nadeh and then my girl is literally like out of the picture but whereas if you see congresses

[00:19:21] thing it the thing that you were talking about right the messaging of a strong local leadership

[00:19:27] a strong you know vision for the government at least electoral that even from a manifest and I

[00:19:35] am of the opinion that manifestos don't tend to matter a lot visual visual exactly so I'm saying

[00:19:41] even in something as basic as a manifesto you see Rahul Yandhi Sunni Agandhi I have like a small

[00:19:47] picture over here and your DKSH Kumar and Sidharamaya are the biggest leaders right.

[00:19:54] In fact when the elections result for being announced one of the TV show Hindi channels

[00:20:00] you know how they have a mock up all the leaders and I think we noticed that JP Nadeh Shor was very

[00:20:06] a loongi because they just they didn't know how to represent BJP and South India and you know

[00:20:16] so that was very telling. And also talking about these five guarantees of congress were they

[00:20:21] a big talking point on growing the people. So the yes yes I mean these things do come up when

[00:20:28] you talk to them but I think at this point what does also kind of know that like you said

[00:20:35] manifesto promises are manifesto promises and then whether they they don't take it on face value

[00:20:40] but I think more than anything else what they were what the congress is most important or

[00:20:46] biggest selling point at this point was just the fact that we might be able to give you a stable

[00:20:51] government which the other parties are talking about. Which Aditya also mentioned that in general

[00:20:56] across states people are more they are preferring a more stable and especially with given

[00:21:02] can article. Given can article like that last election. A handful of cheap and not just in recent times

[00:21:08] but ever since can article has come into being. People haven't come. Yeah I'm full of cheap

[00:21:13] just as I have completed their five term five term so those things that really are like okay not

[00:21:21] again you know we don't want to be in the national news cycle again there's this that sense.

[00:21:25] So we spoke about BJP Kanataka being very important for BJP as an entry into South Indian politics

[00:21:33] and the 2018 win which really wasn't a clean sweep but it gave them some hope of being

[00:21:42] you know a major party in South India so this loss how far back does that set the BJP's

[00:21:49] expectation. So I mean Kanataka BJP has always done better at the central level so even 2018 they didn't

[00:21:57] win the 2018 they didn't win a clean majority but they swept 25 out of 28 seats at in the

[00:22:05] Lok Sabha level then in 2013 again Congress swept BJP did very badly record just 40 seats in

[00:22:12] the Vransaba but in the Lok Sabha again they got 18 out of 28 so yeah I think at the central

[00:22:18] level things might be different and that's what the BJP hopes they are they feel that Prime Minister

[00:22:24] Modi is popular and the Modi factor will work more at the national level and at the state level

[00:22:30] but definitely compared to last time they will be at a net loss in no way that they can repeat 25

[00:22:37] by 28 so BJP is looking at definitely losses in the excess of 10 seats probably

[00:22:45] so yeah I think this is saying in the Lok Sabha election and generally in the South of course

[00:22:51] Kanataka is the only state where BJP's either number one or number two in no other state are they

[00:22:57] even number two so Telangana they're trying to do number two but still I mean at least as of last

[00:23:04] election there are number three Andhra Palesh again not even number four or five Kerala

[00:23:09] then number three Tamil Nadu there very distant player so yeah in South I think BJP has been

[00:23:16] pushed back a bit because of this result now talking about Congress definitely this win

[00:23:22] and such a clear win would be a morale booster for the Congress camp right and does that reflect

[00:23:31] on Rahul Gandhi's image as like a central leader even though he wasn't part of this campaign like

[00:23:38] as a person taking the line but undoubtedly I mean this I was speaking to a Congress leader and he

[00:23:45] said that if we lose Kanataka 24 is over for us so now that they won it's definitely there's

[00:23:53] a lot of energy in the Congress they feel that they can make an impact in the elections that are

[00:23:58] taking place later this year in Telangana Madhya Pradesh Rajasthansh at his guard

[00:24:03] Mizoram so they feel that they can probably retain one state among Rajasthansh

[00:24:09] these guys maybe both I mean they are being optimistic they also feel that they have a very good

[00:24:14] chance in Madhya Pradesh and also because Telangana and Kanataka just adjacent to each other they

[00:24:20] feel that the Kanataka win might just boost their chances in Telangana so of course there's a

[00:24:25] state election then there is the central election and what about Rahul Gandhi as

[00:24:30] Rahul Gandhi so the thing is he after Bharajudo he has become the unquestioned

[00:24:36] face of the Congress naturally I think there is no one who will doubt

[00:24:40] the Rahul Gandhi's leadership now he's proven his metal how much impact did Bharajudo

[00:24:44] have in Kanataka I am a little doubtful the data doesn't entirely support that there was a very

[00:24:51] big impact it did benefit Congress wrote out but it didn't harm BJP Congress I think gained more

[00:24:58] at JDS's expense that's what the data is telling us on in the Bharajudo Rata route area

[00:25:04] yeah out of the 51 see I think 70 yeah so yeah 51 I think is like all the districts combined

[00:25:10] the route itself had 20 Constituents and 15 they won yeah they won yeah 15 so

[00:25:16] and last time five yeah in terms of winning they did better in terms of votes share BJP didn't lose

[00:25:22] anything exactly so this was my question in general for the Kanataka election

[00:25:28] key for sure Congress jiti but can BJP actually hurry because if you look at the

[00:25:36] vote share for BJP it hasn't reduced by that it was a little spin BJP's trust say

[00:25:42] that our votes share come in the way actually what happened BJP has increased some votes share which

[00:25:47] were JDS's area in the old mess area where BJP suddenly improved it's a lot of

[00:25:52] seats but they have really increased their votes but other people's votes are less and

[00:25:58] your strongholds are less there in the coastal they are in two large in Bangalore

[00:26:04] cities and all the rest area around there trying to build a story

[00:26:08] Yes, we have a lot of words to say.

[00:26:10] But in the rest of the words, it has been a lot of words.

[00:26:12] So this is not even the reason why BJP is not a Hari.

[00:26:15] BJP is a Hari.

[00:26:17] And since you also mentioned JDS, what is this election is that safe for them?

[00:26:22] So JDS for them, I think it's become a crisis of existence.

[00:26:28] Because this will now be accepted if we look at the 2018-2019 brief period.

[00:26:35] They have been out of power now since over a decade.

[00:26:39] So this is a party obviously being in power is essential for them.

[00:26:44] And I think when Fatma also must have noticed in the ground a lot of JDS water, especially minorities and the Lids were probably shifting to the Congress.

[00:26:53] Yeah, and I mean data is also telling us that right.

[00:26:56] Like the poll data we go by the 88% Muslim backing the Congress.

[00:27:02] You know, Congress making such incredible gains amongst schedule cars and schedule drive.

[00:27:08] And in the SCNST Reserve seats as well.

[00:27:11] All of this is telling us something that I mean, I think with Muslims it's a very clear case of honestly just solidly backing up political party that will be able to defeat the BJP.

[00:27:20] I think every state election is some of our turning out to be an existential election for the community across many states.

[00:27:27] So now that it's established we have talked about the reasons why Congress won by BJP laws lost.

[00:27:34] And Congress now it is established that they have one with like a very clear majority.

[00:27:39] What next from here who will be leading the Congress in Karnataka?

[00:27:45] Ladies first.

[00:27:46] Very soon.

[00:27:48] This is a tricky question.

[00:27:52] It's interesting it's fascinating because I know a lot of people make this battle with Rajasthan.

[00:27:59] And I was just thinking about it and I think I asked some striking differences right the biggest one being age.

[00:28:05] So Kumar turned 62 right now and this one is, see there are many as 75.

[00:28:11] So I think in that sense you would imagine that to Kumar would be a little more anxious in wanting to take over the SCNST.

[00:28:19] Especially knowing in a state where there is such as we have talked about repeatedly, there is this history of instability right?

[00:28:26] So you have that anxiety but also I think there is a history of more bitterness in Rajasthan doing the two players.

[00:28:33] India has called such a violent Nekamma and you know foreign educated who doesn't know anything about this state.

[00:28:39] And pilot as recently as last month went on a protest fast against his own government.

[00:28:45] You know none of that level of bitterness at least publicly we've never seen outplay between these two players in Karnataka.

[00:28:53] So I think there is scope for a little more negotiation and bargaining and convincing the two players to sit down and have some conversation.

[00:29:02] That is ultimately up to the leadership and the kind of political savvy they employ at this point to be able to achieve that.

[00:29:08] I know in the leadership when you speak to people in Congress's Delhi unit which is I mean the central unit there is the sense that ideally what you would want is for either Amaya to continue,

[00:29:21] to take over SCN because he has more experience he's of course incredibly popular amongst the state right?

[00:29:26] He is a masjid in a way that should come out isn't but we'd want to continue as the KPCC chief because especially when you're in the 4th round of the corner he's more tangent.

[00:29:37] Right? He's basically that he's incredible in being able to just pragmatically make all sides happy and just do what needs to be done.

[00:29:46] You know he's seen that kind of a man so that would be an ideal scenario for the Congress leadership but let's see how it's going.

[00:29:53] But more or less Congress is expecting that the decision will be amicable.

[00:29:58] They are wanting that and I mean I think it is in everyone's best interest including the two players because as you've seen in Rajasthan any kind of like public fallout doesn't help.

[00:30:10] Either pilot or galore or the party doesn't really serve to help you.

[00:30:14] Or the opposition's image in general right? The whole thing of opposition united.

[00:30:19] The biggest example people throw is pilot.

[00:30:23] So in our video with the Quint you talked about the three scenarios that can happen right?

[00:30:28] That you talked about on election day.

[00:30:31] But it was a mention that it depends on how close to the majority of the Congress will be.

[00:30:36] Now of course it's clear that the Congress is a very stable member of it.

[00:30:41] It sort of helps Siddharh Mahiyas case a little more because since it's a clear mandate you don't need other MLAs and Swindhya Dhanisans, Shivkumar's bargaining power reduced a bit.

[00:30:52] Obviously but the three scenarios still remain.

[00:30:56] They could go with Siddharh Mahiyas, they could go with DK Shivkumar.

[00:30:59] They could also go for a two and a half year, two and a half year power sharing agreement.

[00:31:03] A lot again depends on what Malik Arjun Kharge does.

[00:31:06] Of course one reason because he's the Congress president but also because there are a set of MLAs we don't know how many numbers some say 20, some say 30 who are loyal to Kharge and not to any of the other major leaders so he can actually turn it in favor or one or the other of the two leaders.

[00:31:24] I think if one has to look into what Kharge might be thinking he would be looking who will be the best leader as far as the 2024 looks about elections and concerns but even then there are no easy answers because Siddharh Mahiyas controls the base of the Ahindavotas.

[00:31:41] But DK Shivkumar has the loyalty of the organization and generally he's a much more of a team player than Siddharh Mahiyas.

[00:31:49] So it's a very difficult choice for Kharge had it would have been best if one person was the answer to all the credit.

[00:31:58] But unfortunately that is a big deal.

[00:31:59] But have you seen him historically lean towards Siddharh Mahiyas?

[00:32:02] So historically there's a little strange Siddharh Mahiyas and Kharge don't have a great history.

[00:32:08] Siddharh Mahiyas sought off when he became prominent after he's not a traditional year congressman, he came in from the Jantadal secular.

[00:32:17] Kharge was eased out into the central politics because Siddharh Mahiyas became the dominant person here.

[00:32:23] So Kharge has some bad history with Siddharh Mahiyas but Kharge is also a magnanimous enough to forget that and look for the parties larger interests.

[00:32:32] And he can't ignore his popularity.

[00:32:34] Exactly.

[00:32:35] So Kharge in that sense isn't like a ghello who just isn't able to concede anything to such an pilot.

[00:32:46] So I think we'll have to see what the congressman does here.

[00:32:52] And finally guys what does it mean for the 2024 elections?

[00:32:57] So for the congress for BJP and for India.

[00:33:02] I think for Congress definitely it gives them a lease of life.

[00:33:06] It also gives them a model by which they can fight the BJP.

[00:33:11] So for the BJP it was localized issue, local leadership, local factors.

[00:33:16] It can't be scaled up nationally because for an MP's election people vote very differently.

[00:33:21] But there are still some tricks that the trick is that I mean people are really reeling under price rise and unemployment.

[00:33:30] So a very strong pro-poor trust in their campaign might just help Congress.

[00:33:37] Even in Karnataka the poor segment has outright income.

[00:33:42] If you see what Mr. Ghello is doing in Rajasthan he has started these Mangai Rahat camps

[00:33:46] in which all the welfare schemes people can just come submit their documents and get them implemented

[00:33:51] like avail of those benefits just by coming and signing a few forms in one place.

[00:33:56] So I was there in Savayamadhapur a little while back and every bus stand has those camps.

[00:34:04] So in that sense Congress is trying to make that their main plan for the looks of elections.

[00:34:10] So yeah that's as far as Congress has come.

[00:34:13] BJP I think they obviously would have figured out that Modi factor is the only factor that they have.

[00:34:21] And Bangalore city the way Modi is ruled so and I mean one has to concede it did turn votes.

[00:34:27] BJP did do well in Bangalore city compared to last time.

[00:34:31] So I mean Modi is campaigning obviously had an impact and Bangalore is also where the language issue doesn't come in the way of Modi communicating.

[00:34:38] So yeah for BJP that is the lesson but it is also the lesson that you can't take state leaders for granted.

[00:34:46] You can't undermine state leaders the way they probably did with your Europa.

[00:34:50] So yeah I think these are the main lessons for the two parties.

[00:34:57] Yeah you know speak on that Modi point I remember when I was in Bangalore I tried to make it to Modi road show and I did and I spoke to some people there.

[00:35:07] And it was very interesting where it was a very Delhi like sentiment where we like oh we want Modi at the center but here you want whatever Congress or any whoever they were supporting but not BJP.

[00:35:17] Which is what you often see with Amadmi party supporters in New Delhi where they are like okay we'll support up here but we want BJP at the center.

[00:35:25] So I think in that sense it is important to know that there is of course continues to be a huge Modi popularity in across Karnataka which by give us different results in 2024 right.

[00:35:38] That will play a role there and I think most importantly I think this election win will really help Raul Gandhi's image because like we said that even though he did not he wasn't hands on but ultimately it's all about optics right.

[00:35:53] Politics is all about optics so when you are able to say okay every poster will have Raul Gandhi you know Congress win.

[00:35:59] Yeah.

[00:36:00] With Tika Chandras, Raul Gandhi's face will look like these things do play a role.

[00:36:04] So centrally I would say Congress is Raul Gandhi.

[00:36:07] And even for Jodo Yatra right is when a lot of time in Karnataka.

[00:36:11] So I mean there are ultimately data will only tell us quantifiable things right.

[00:36:17] But after that what does it in general it's something that will be used repeatedly by Congress at okay we went there and looked at one.

[00:36:28] So that's a template that you can then use across states.

[00:36:32] And yes we will be there on ground in the Agha Neval elections upcoming elections MP Chattisgarh Rajasthan.

[00:36:39] And I think the one lesson I can gather from this is just empowering local leader.

[00:36:44] It pays off.

[00:36:46] This was the big story and interesting conversation I would say thanks a lot to the Fatim Banku for his chat.

[00:36:53] And hopefully we will be back with the next election result.

[00:36:57] Yes yes we should make this a thing.

[00:36:58] Comment below if you want both of us dumbo's in both of these two smart guys to talk about, to talk of half one jumbo.

[00:37:08] If you want us to talk about elections let us know in the comments below and this was the big story.

[00:37:14] This is Pratik.

[00:37:15] And this was Angeline.

[00:37:16] Aalatiya.

[00:37:17] And Fatima.

[00:37:18] Thank you.

[00:37:21] You were listening to the Quince podcast.