P V Anvar: A political tempest or passing storm in Kerala politics? | Ep 136

[00:00:00] While Kerala has had its fair share of tragedies, political twists and turns this year, together this has changed the way we think and live.

[00:00:09] So at Onmanorama we are calling 2024 the year of upheaval.

[00:00:14] So as a part of a special year-ender series, News Brake podcast will be highlighting the key events which occurred in Kerala this year.

[00:00:41] Hi, I'm Harita Benjamin and joining me today is Ashwin J Kumar.

[00:00:45] So Ashwin and I are here to discuss a major political upheaval which occurred in Kerala this year, which includes P V Anvar, the LDF independent candidate who switched sides, you know, and who have gone as a complete rebel, okay, and created a lot of turmoil.

[00:01:05] Then we have P Saran, who shifted camps from the Congress to the LDF.

[00:01:11] Then we have Sandeep Wadhyar, who was a BJP spokesperson and he shifted camps to Congress.

[00:01:17] So but among the three I think if you are to look at the total impact, P V Anvar had a lot of impact.

[00:01:24] If you are looking at the impact it had on the party, on Pindrai Vijayan and the different LDF stalwarts.

[00:01:30] My first question is, what are the major upheavals which Anvar brought about?

[00:01:35] It all started with a minor tiff with a police officer and it escalated into, you know, something really big.

[00:01:43] So how did it all start? Could you just brief us on that?

[00:01:46] Yeah. The way it progressed was really dramatic.

[00:01:50] Right.

[00:01:50] Because as you said, it started off on a very low note.

[00:01:53] Yeah.

[00:01:53] Then it reached the crescent.

[00:01:54] Yeah.

[00:01:54] Because he was going for Malapuram SP Shashitharan initially.

[00:01:58] Right.

[00:01:58] He files a complaint.

[00:01:59] CPM doesn't take any action.

[00:02:01] The government doesn't take action.

[00:02:03] He gets frustrated.

[00:02:05] Then he goes for big guns like suddenly P Shashi comes into foe.

[00:02:10] ADGP law and order, then ADGP law and order.

[00:02:12] Ajit Kumar is being targeted.

[00:02:14] Right.

[00:02:14] And this changes the equation.

[00:02:16] This changes the scene totally, completely.

[00:02:18] CPM was caught unnavise.

[00:02:20] And he was also sending confusing signals about even as he was going ahead with his allegations.

[00:02:26] Because at one point everyone was wondering who he is actually aiming at.

[00:02:31] Is it the chief minister or chief minister's political secretary P Shashi or Ajit Kumar?

[00:02:37] And a section of the party even kind of started believing that he was speaking on behalf of CM.

[00:02:44] But then the complexion changed suddenly.

[00:02:47] Right.

[00:02:47] He directly targeted CM.

[00:02:49] So, and then all the CPM leaders also started sounding different tones about the entire developments.

[00:02:57] And I think at different times they had different tones.

[00:02:59] They were trying to portray him as a very insignificant person.

[00:03:02] He is one of low credibility.

[00:03:05] They were trying to discredit him by all means.

[00:03:08] But at the same time, attempts at pacifying him was also going on.

[00:03:12] So, we are joined by Ayyapin from Trivandrum to explain the actual kind of impact Anwar left on Kerala politics this year.

[00:03:21] Okay.

[00:03:21] So, let's listen to Ayyapin and be right back.

[00:03:23] Hi Ashwin.

[00:03:25] As for the impact that Anwar had, I would say that there were two kinds of impacts.

[00:03:33] One would be momentary and the other would be lasting.

[00:03:37] The momentary would be the kind of unrest that he could provoke within the CPM.

[00:03:45] There was a feeling that the CPM Cader was overwhelmingly in favour of him.

[00:03:50] Even in the last week of October, we had pro-CPM handles, social media handles, with slogans supportive of Anwar, saying Anwar not bomb.

[00:04:01] And so, in keeping with the mood, we also sensed the stirrings of a shift in power dynamics within the CPM.

[00:04:11] We saw State Secretary M.V. Govindan asserting himself.

[00:04:19] While the CPM, with a tone of finality, said that there is not going to be any probe against Shashi, Govindan said that there indeed will be an internal probe against Shashi.

[00:04:31] While the CM was overly protective of ADGP Law and Order Ajit Kumar, Govindan did not hide his displeasure.

[00:04:39] He made it clear that the party was unhappy with the ADGP secret meetings with the RSS leaders.

[00:04:46] But when Anwar widened his target and took on the CPM as a whole, he attacked its secular nature.

[00:04:54] Govindan had no choice but to sort of, you know, drop his weapons and drop his idea of a coup and then resume his walk behind the CM.

[00:05:03] So, it is status quo. The status quo has been established. It's business as usual in the CPM.

[00:05:08] So, as for the lasting impact, I thought Anwar called the bluff of CPM's politics.

[00:05:15] See, after the Lodzibar polls, the CPM in a very imperceptible fashion adopted a Hindu pleasing tone at a press conference.

[00:05:28] And later, during an interview with a Hindu newspaper, the CM spoke about gold smuggling and Havala transactions through the Karipur airport.

[00:05:40] And it was with a sense of, you know, pride that the CM said that 150 kilograms of gold and 123 crores worth of Havala money was confiscated in Karipur.

[00:05:54] But, or confiscated from Malapur.

[00:05:57] There was no reason for the CM to say this because this was not the worst haul.

[00:06:02] Because there were worst, worst catches in other districts.

[00:06:06] Malapuram stands fifth or sixth in terms of the smuggled gold cot.

[00:06:10] So, and then the CM said that this money was used for anti-national activities.

[00:06:18] But clearly, this would have charmed Muslim haters in the state.

[00:06:26] Mostly, the San Parivar.

[00:06:29] What the CM was actually doing was giving official endorsement to the San Parivar narrative that Muslims are gold smugglers and Havala operators.

[00:06:42] So, it was, TV Anwar was the first political leader exposed this and discredited this new Hindu policing line of the CPM.

[00:06:54] And he promptly asked the CM to apologize to Malapuram.

[00:06:59] And the CPM was forced to go on a clarification speed.

[00:07:02] And so, with that, he kind of destroyed, he sort of messed up the image, the carefully cultivated image of the CPM as the most pro-minority party in Kerala.

[00:07:14] So, this was an image that the CPM had crafted during the Anti-Citizenship Amendment Act struggles in 2018 and sustained through the Uniform Civil Code protests.

[00:07:26] And also, with their aggressive support of the Palestinian cause.

[00:07:33] And this image was sort of exposed by PV Anwar.

[00:07:37] And coinciding with these developments was the Trishur Kuram fiasco and the revelation that the CM's most favorite cop had met Pan's as leaders.

[00:07:48] So, this, so the perception that the CPM, particularly the CM, had dubious connections with Sangh Parivar forces became amplified.

[00:08:03] The CPM will find this, find it extremely difficult to play this perception down.

[00:08:11] Anwar might not reach anywhere in Kerala politics, but the turmoil that he had set in motion will make it extremely difficult for the CPM to navigate its way through Kerala politics.

[00:08:22] Right. So, I think as Ayipin said, there is a long-term impact which is involved here, right?

[00:08:28] Sure.

[00:08:29] So, he spoke about the vigilance probe against the ADGP and the internal inquiry against Pishashi.

[00:08:34] So, how will this impact? Will there be a fair probe, first of all?

[00:08:39] And how do you think it is going to impact the political scenario in Kerala, Ashwin?

[00:08:45] See, that's one aspect CPM is totally wary about.

[00:08:49] Right.

[00:08:50] Because as much as they try to discredit him, the kind of things he kicked off, the state government was forced to order a vigilance probe against ADGP law and order.

[00:09:00] And even while CM was trying to ward off allegations, any kind of allegations against Pishashi, simultaneously CPM's State Secretary, M.V. Govindan, openly declared that there was an internal probe going on in the party against this Shashi.

[00:09:17] Now, the question is, will the CPM be willing to expose this probe report in the open, out in the open?

[00:09:24] Right.

[00:09:24] And will the vigilance probe take the right course as it is required to be? And once that happens, if at all, we reach a stage where Anwar stands vindicated with regard to his allegations.

[00:09:37] Where does he stand? Will it increase his stature? Will his disrepute vanish away? These are the things which CPM will be totally conscious about.

[00:09:45] I think IAPN can give more insights on that.

[00:09:48] Anwar, to me, is not a popular leader, nor even a credible leader. The only thing I think he can do is he can, what I call, sharpen the opposition.

[00:09:59] I think it was because of him, that Sardishan, the opposition leader Sardishan had to sort of, you know, urgently come up with something to bring himself to the limelight, to bring the opposition to the limelight.

[00:10:11] Because the entire attention was drawn to Anwar. And it was because of that urgency that the Hossabale, the Dattatreya Hossabale revelation came into.

[00:10:19] So, even now, it is Anwar who's keeping the ADN, Naveen Babu issue alive.

[00:10:27] So, the opposition then will have to do catch up. So, in that sense, he can sharpen the opposition.

[00:10:33] But I don't think he has a potential to turn out to be a big player in Kerala.

[00:10:41] Chela Kera, we just saw what he could do in Chela Kera. There is nothing much that he could do.

[00:10:46] But then, I mean, it is like this. I mean, the ingredients that you kind of, you know, use to spice up your food is not something that you consume.

[00:10:53] You throw it at it. So, Anwar would be discarded.

[00:10:57] But he can spice things up in Kerala politics at least for two or three years.

[00:11:03] Right. So, thanks Ayyapin. And Ashwin, Ayyapin was talking about what PV Anwar could mean for Kerala's future and how he could impact or not impact Kerala politics.

[00:11:13] But what about CPM? How will the CPM be affected by this in the long term scenario? And so, with that, I think we could wind up and…

[00:11:22] See, the CPM was totally in a state of shock. The CPM always seemed confused how to go about these allegations.

[00:11:29] Because as Ayyapin and even you pointed out, there were contradictory remarks coming from all corners.

[00:11:34] Initially, Covintin was trying to assert himself. He was actually contradicting his own Chief Minister.

[00:11:39] Then, during the by-election campaign, Chief Minister spent considerable time trying to say that this guy, this person named PV Anwar is insignificant.

[00:11:51] Whatever comes out of his mouth is incredible. So, why would somebody whom CPM treats as insignificant pose a threat to CPM that attempts are still being made,

[00:12:02] we're still being made to pass it for him. So, as I said, once this report comes out, if at all the allegations regarding ADGP Ajit Kumar on his disproportionate amassing of wealth or irregularities in gold smuggling case being handled by Kerala police come to light,

[00:12:20] these are the questions that will have to be dealt with by the CPM.

[00:12:24] Right. So, I think with that, we can wind up today's podcast. It remains to be seen how Anwar and CPM is going to be affected in next year's local body polls.

[00:12:35] So, let's wait and watch and see what 2025 has in store for us. So, that's a wrap of today's episode.

[00:12:41] This is Ashwin J. Kumar and Harita Benjamin signing off from Newsbreak Podcast. Thank you.