The electoral debut of Priyanka Gandhi, a surprise shift in allegiances, midnight raids for black money, shocking revelations on Kodakara, and tales of internal rifts in parties—the month-long bypoll campaign dished out quite an eventful package for Kerala voters. Aswin J Kumar decodes three factors that may influence the final verdict in this Kerala bypolls.
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[00:00:00] The electoral debut of Kriyanka Gandhi, surprise shift in allegiance, midnight raids for black money, shocking revelations on Kodakada and tales of internal drift in parties. The month-long bipol campaign dished out quite an eventful package for Kerala voters. There was more drama in store. The polling day began with a row over the autobiography of CPM leader E.P. Jairajan. He disowned the book. So did the CPM.
[00:00:28] But is that it? As bi-pol happens in Chela Kara and Vyanat today, what could be playing on voters' minds?
[00:00:41] Hi and welcome to News Break. This is your host Ashwin J. Kumar and today we decode three factors which may influence the final verdict in Kerala bi-polls.
[00:00:52] 1. Breach of Morality Code Changing sites just before elections is not something new.
[00:00:59] But what we saw ahead of the bi-polls was nothing short of dramatic.
[00:01:04] Nilambur MLA PV Anwar unleashed a string of allegations. He brazenly defied the CM and the CPM, launched a party called Democratic Movement of Kerala.
[00:01:14] And his candidate at Chela Kara was N.K. Suthir, a former AACC member and KPCC secretary.
[00:01:21] P. Sarin, once a vociferous CPM critic, became the LDF independent in Palakkad.
[00:01:26] Unlike the Lok Sabha polls, he wasn't given the symbol but all this support.
[00:01:31] CPM State Secretary, M.V. Govindan, relied on history for justification.
[00:01:36] If K. Karnakaran and A.K. Anthony could side with the LDF once, why not P. Sarin?
[00:01:41] Now the question is, would the voters subscribe to history or any explanation for that matter?
[00:01:47] Was it the person or the politics that would have prompted them to cast their vote today?
[00:01:52] The results will indicate if parties will feel emboldened to play around with morality code in politics or show some caution in future.
[00:02:01] 2. More Secularism, Less Development
[00:02:04] In previous by-polls, CPM didn't think twice to declare it would be an appraisal of government's performance.
[00:02:11] Certainly not this time. Why?
[00:02:13] CPM was more keen on neutralising the allegations around secret deal with RSS.
[00:02:19] Delay in actions and fluctuating stance regarding ADGP RSS leaders meeting and Trishurpuram controversy had already caused confusion among the carders.
[00:02:29] CPM took no time to say that Shafi Parambil was removed from Palakkar and fielded in Vadagara to clear BJP's entry into the Assembly.
[00:02:37] This gave the CPM the chance to head back and reclaim its secular image during the by-election campaign, as reported by a correspondent R. I. A. Pen.
[00:02:47] CPM's silence on development was an opportunity for others.
[00:02:51] DMK's main campaign plank in Chellakara was building thousand houses for the homeless families.
[00:02:57] Our reporter, George, in fact spoke to a few of the applicants, including a woman named Smisha, who lives in a one-room shed which is infested with snakes.
[00:03:08] CPM thought they would rather uphold a secular image than talk.
[00:03:13] Development during this by-poll, so much so that even a favourable comment from Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav on K-Rail did not elicit a response from the government.
[00:03:22] Even Congress hopes that the anti-incumbency quotient is huge and this alone would reap dividends for them.
[00:03:30] Number 3. Cash and Communalism
[00:03:32] Munambam is a place quite far away from Chellakara, Palakkar and Vainar.
[00:03:37] However, ownership dispute over this land between Vakaf board and residents has created quite a stir in Kerala, even as campaigns were by-polls were going on.
[00:03:48] At one hand, the government faces criticism for note-taking prompt intervention.
[00:03:53] The all-party meeting has been postponed. Whether it would cause ripples in bipolls was something CPM was already worried about.
[00:04:01] In Chellakara, Congress MLA Kural Nadan said that by sending K. Radhakrishnan to Parliament, CPM now runs a Dalit-less cabinet.
[00:04:09] Now, this kind of campaign strategy in a reserved constituency was a surprise. It again showed even Congress was not so inclined to talk about development, but would be vocal about Dalit representation.
[00:04:22] With the revelations related to Kodakara Black Money case pushing BJP to back vote, CPM hoped same ploy would work against the Congress.
[00:04:31] The rates in search of black money, however, backfired. There was clear dissent even within the CPM leadership.
[00:04:38] For the voters, there has been no dearth of topics, as we said earlier, all unrelated to development.
[00:04:44] The outcome of these bipolls will hold light to what can be expected in the upcoming local body polls.
[00:04:50] That brings us to the end of today's episode.
[00:04:54] This is On Manorama's News Break, an explainer podcast produced by Harida Benjamin.
[00:05:00] It airs every week and is available on all podcast platforms.
[00:05:04] For more news, views and updates, follow onmanorama.com.