Why Lando Norris is well & truly back in the title fight! | F1 2025 #AustrianGP Quali Show

[00:00:00] 5 is going to be the important number for today. Sarang, our producer, has just told us that the 5 lights are out. And 5 tenths is the gap between Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc. And then there's distance between the others. It does not add up to me. And for context, this is a fan who hasn't watched the race, or the qualifying in this case, learning from someone who has and has analyzed all the data.

[00:00:26] So tell us Kunal, how is Lando Norris half a second ahead of everyone? And why is he back in the championship? Very interesting. This is the start of my monologue. Welcome to my monologue F1 Podcast. But okay, you guys remember. That's what it initially started out as. It did. And then we all joined into the fun. Absolutely. And I'm so glad you guys joined into the fun, adding all the perspectives, all the narratives, all the various lenses

[00:00:56] that you all watch the Formula One sport, business, political landscape with. So thank you very much for that, for having fun with me on the Inside Line F1 Podcast since 2010. Wow, it's been a while. But so what's Lando Norris up to and why is this poll so crucial?

[00:01:17] For everyone who has seen the two live streams we did before the qualifying, the key part is McLaren is working hard to bring upgrades or, you know, updates to the car or parts of the car which help Lando get a better feel of the car. If everyone who's been tracking what Lando Norris has been doing, he's saying the cars, you know, doing things that I can't, I don't have a feel for and it's unpredictable.

[00:01:41] And that's largely in the front with a front axle as we call it, which means that, you know, when he's trying to push and he's breaking for a corner on a particular lap, if the car is doing something and then the next lap, it's doing something else altogether, which is why he's unable to take it to the limit. Right. So McLaren is bringing new suspension geometry parts, which Oscar Piastri is deciding to not use because he's clearly comfortable with a 2025 car.

[00:02:06] But Lando Norris is choosing to use. They brought one in Canada last race. They brought one this race weekend as well. And Lando actually said a few things which tells us that, wow, he's actually enjoying himself. You know, firstly, after the qualifying was done and he got pole, he's like, yeah, it's good to know that the old me can be back sometimes. You know, Somile was so heartening. I'm sure he's also having those battles fighting himself.

[00:02:32] Then in the official press conference, Lando said, I know what I can do when I feel the car the way I did today. And this is what I need to do for the 12 races that remain, whatever number of races that remain. He says, does this mean I'm back? I don't know. But I am back to feeling the car the way I would like to. I just need to do this more consistently. And then he also added, you know, the ever honest that Lando is.

[00:03:01] He also added that this is also Austria circuit I love to go at. And he said, if there was any circuit I wanted to try having a go at to see if I actually can feel the car, it's Austria. So now we just have to see if the variable shifts when we go to Silverstone next. But that's where I think this is where the 2025 F1 battle could really well start between Norris and PS3.

[00:03:26] But I find the word back very interesting because we all face this in our daily lives. We all do some sort of work and some days are better than the others. But the other days were not scrutinized by all of the world's media. So we're not questioning if we've truly lost it or not. In the case of Lando Norris and all the Formula One drivers, in fact, all elite athletes out there, every single performance is scrutinized on a daily basis. So you're constantly left wondering, have I got it? Have I still got it? Am I the best version of myself?

[00:03:55] That's the performance business for you. And today we saw a performance from Lando Norris. Five tenths is amazing. Sure, you might say McLaren favorable circuit, high attack temperature, so that eliminates the Red Bulls from the mix because the car doesn't quite fit in their operating window, which is very narrow, as we all know. And so on and so forth, whatever you might say. But five tenths, and that includes the gap to his teammate, Kunal.

[00:04:21] His teammate was very comfortable with the old spec of the car, but Oscar was five tenths away. The number still feels so hard to make sense. Five tenths across 11 corners only. Not even 11, because if you remove all the high-speed flat-out corners, you're down to just seven, eight corners on the circuit. So the other caveat here is, Pierre Gasly did what every sailor loves to do,

[00:04:48] which is pull out a perfect 720 on the final lap of his Q3 run, final corner of his Q3 run, which actually spoiled the fast Q3 runs, the final Q3 runs for Max Verstappen, as well as for Oscar Piastri. Even then, though, Kunal, even then, Piastri in his first run, from what I saw, he was two and a half tenths of a second behind Lando. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm just offering context.

[00:05:17] I'm not saying Piastri or Max would have taken the pole away. I think the pole was Lando's to take. No denying that. But just offering context that two key players were taken out of the equation because of a yellow flag. Red Bull, by their own admission, said that Max would have been 104.5 or thereabouts. So he would have been P3 on the grid is what they claim. Okay. Which is where, you know, you saw Piastri, Hamilton sort of lined up.

[00:05:47] And Oscar Piastri all weekend long has actually been one and a half tenths, so 0.15 away pretty much every session. But you could argue that maybe Oscar was just leaving it for, you know, a full beans final flourish in qualifying on Q3 to at least get closer to Lando Norris. I'm not taking anything away from Norris. Just like I said, telling you how a commentator would or should say, right? Somal, since... You're preparing.

[00:06:13] I'm preparing very much for my F1 commentary gig tomorrow where I'm trying to fit into Somal Arora's big, airy shoes. But I realized that's difficult, so I'll just bring my own pair of shoes. So everyone in India, tune into FanCode. If you watch the Hindi commentary broadcast, there will be Chetan Narula leading the commentary and I'll be backing him up. I'm just keeping the seat warm till Somal returns for Silverstone.

[00:06:44] Let's have three seats. I like the idea even more so. So let's have... Hey, I feel bad for Luca Cortez. So I like the idea of having... Does anyone remember the name Luca Cortez now? Or was that movie too forgetful? I think it is. Forgettable. Sorry. But yeah, no, it'll be phenomenal. I can't believe that I'm going to be missing watching it live. But yeah, for all of you folks who can watch it live, please do. It'll be a lot of fun.

[00:07:14] We have comments though. We have Praveen sending in the first comment of the evening saying, Lando had a clear pace advantage this weekend. He still would have been 0.15 to 2 tenths ahead of everyone else. And to add more context to that, I just did some digging. Lando's qualifying lap today was 4 tenths faster than what Max Verstappen did here last year. Is this the first time we've gone to a sub 1 minute 4 lap at Austria? It's a question for F1 starts, Guru. Who's going to be listening for sure.

[00:07:42] But yeah, it's a phenomenal lap. I think it is probably the fastest lap that we've seen around Austria. At least that's what I think. If I can just check what the lap record is, which is usually what we end up checking, right? But you have the printed document. Yeah, I have the printed document now. It's 70 pages. Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, yeah. But last year we did a 104.3.

[00:08:11] The year before that was also 104.3. The one year before that was 103.7. And then the fastest was actually bought us 102.9 in 2020. 2020. 2020. Because, yeah. Anyway. So 102.9 is as quick as we've got. But sticking to Lando's space advantage and sticking to the gap, it's the largest qualifying gap we've had all season.

[00:08:39] And we actually go back to remembering qualifying was being settled by half a tenth. In years being settled by half a second. So he's like 10x the regular gap. But that's 0.814% of the lap time. That's how massive that gap is that Lando Norris has pulled out. And it's a very easy way to calculate that. If you need help, just drop me a message. We'll figure it out. But when I just read out the other close gaps.

[00:09:09] In China, PSD was 0.09%. That's how close we were. In Suzuka, Verstappen had pulled by 0.014%. Okay. In Jeddah, Verstappen had pulled by 0.011%. Okay. So that's how just the gaps have been. But I must admit that since Imola, okay, the gaps that have come have actually been much more.

[00:09:33] So Norris is at a 0.156% in Monaco. Then PS3 was 0.292% in Spain. Russell at 0.226% in Canada. And Norris is 0.814% in Austria. So just goes to show it's fantastic. But this is not over just yet. I know we are hyping up Lando Norris' performance. And I think it's good to do that.

[00:10:01] Because when he's not performed, we've been the first ones to point out that, hey, dude, you have a car, but you're not performing. Second, he's the first one. Yeah, that's true. He's the first one to say that. Yes, that's true. But in the last 12 races, Samuel, five have been won from pole position. But eight have been won from the front row.

[00:10:31] Okay. So there is still a chance. Could we have a Charles Leclerc victory? What do you think? No, I know I haven't analyzed data enough. And I don't know too much about how the new Ferrari is behaving in terms of tire management and riding curbs as well. Because those are two major factors that determine how well you do over a long race since in Austria. But he has the racecraft.

[00:10:58] And Austria is a race where racecraft matters a lot more than at most other circuits. Because you will be fighting here. The interesting part is there is some separation. Like Piastri is third. I just want to see how quickly he disposes of Leclerc. Because then we might have a fight. And in that case, my prediction, I believe, will still come true. That Oscar Piastri might end up winning this race from a Lando Norris pole position. Because let's be honest, Kunal, we've seen this happen so many times. Combat.

[00:11:29] Fuck. Look at me bringing this word again. Combat is expected in Austria. It's something that's very common. You don't need a different flow for it. You don't need to follow up with your technical director and ask her to make a different flow for it. But it's something that enables drivers to go pick a fight. And when that situation comes in, I know I'm picking Leclerc and Oscar Piastri over Lando.

[00:11:58] Even though Lando has seemed like the more confident driver. Yeah, I think confident driver. And I think even the fact that he knowing that he's finally getting a car, he can get that feel. Let's remember in Canada, Lando chasing Oscar Lando was quicker in that race at that point of time. So it's not that Lando's race pace is something we can rule out either. But the good point is that we don't know. It's unpredictable. The only thing we know is it's actually a McLaren versus Ferrari up in the front.

[00:12:27] Two versus two. That's how they're going to go. Because Lewis Hamilton put it fourth. Leclerc put it second. Piastri is third. But Lando is, of course, first. And I would love to see how they even engage in strategy. The Ferrari pit wall is actually going to be under immense stress to make sure they get the right strategy. And Lewis Hamilton was very, very praiseworthy of his team. He said we were one of the best ones out there when it came to execution in qualifying today.

[00:12:54] And largely we've always been told that Ferrari just needs to qualify better, start higher up the order, and they will get better results. They brought in a floor upgrade for Austria. And they've suddenly matched the performances they pulled off the last time they ran the car low and got disqualified, which was China. So it could all be pointing in the right direction.

[00:13:21] And Leclerc actually said I'd love to put Lando under pressure on Sunday. So he's actually going to go and try to go for a win as well. Yeah. But do you honestly see a Ferrari win happening? Because even before they had to run their car higher because of the plank wear, they were very firmly second. That's where they finished last year in the World Constructors Championship. What do you see happening in this race then? I think there's going to be a battle and they're going to go for it.

[00:13:50] And they will use two against one. I'd love to see Ferrari's team orders and how that plays out. Because they've had a lot of team orders in the last several races. If you remember Lewis even asking, should I let Carlos Sainz go through and so on? And what about papaya rules? I mean, will the drivers be allowed to race or will the driver in clean air get priority? Will the driver on track position get priority?

[00:14:14] Because McLaren's lead in the Constructors Championship is very well settled. Right? How are they going to handle the driver's battle? Because they also know that Lando Norris has waited long enough to get this part to feel the way he needs to feel in that car. So, and what will Oscar Piastri do? Will he panic? Or will he just say, let me just bank in points?

[00:14:38] Because this is a circuit where Lando's very comfortable at, very confident at. Let him just score more points. But I'll be back in Silverstone because Oscar's not going to give up easily as well. So, all points... 22 points, the lead. Yeah. Absolutely. That's the lead. And Abhishek is here. He's saying, I feel Austria is also one of those places that allowed drivers to hit back after being overtaken. So, it would help if two McLarens pick a fight.

[00:15:08] And that's true. Even the tyres, you know, we saw in Miami that it was warm. But they could still fight and fight back and defend and come back to fight. So, 70 laps of battling is what I'm really hoping for. And not a lot of tyre management. That's the key part. Could we be stuck in DRS trains? I hope not. Let them race. Let them race is going to be the motto. So, Austria... Well, I haven't opened the race strategy pack yet.

[00:15:37] But safety cars, do we expect a lot of them here? Is that a... I don't remember there ever being a safety car in Austria for the longest time. There's a high chance of safety cars, typically. But I mean, I know that 71 laps is there. Since 2015, there have been five safety cars that have happened. Okay. So, no red flags, though.

[00:16:04] And several VSC deployments as well. So, there was one instance where there were more than three safety cars per race. So, there's a lot that can happen in Austria. But while we look forward to the race, it's time to still look back for some of my favorite stats. And this is where it's... I love it. So, Pierre Gasly has been Q1, Q3, Q1, Q3, Q1, Q3 in the last six races.

[00:16:34] So, he's either knocked himself out in Q1 or he's made it all the way up to Q3. That's what's happened. Liam Lawson has outqualified. Where's this stuff from, man? Liam Lawson is outqualified. Not just Isaac Hatchard, but Max Verstappen as well. Okay. Having said that, Yuki Tsunoda, who got eliminated in Q1, was just two and a half tenths away from Max Verstappen,

[00:17:04] who was, I think, eighth at that time. So, he was not too far away either. And the top 15 in Q1 was split by just six tenths. And I think that's complete madness. And for a driver who I really love and respect, Nico Halkenberg, he made a mistake at turn four, put a wheel on the grass, lost some time, got out in Q1. Gabriel Botoletto made his first Q3 visit of the season.

[00:17:31] He was in the top 10 in FP1, 2, 3 Samuel. So, very happy to see him actually deliver a Q3 performance. But crucially, Nico Halkenberg has had eight Q1 exits, which is the most number of Q1 exits for any driver on the current grade in Formula 1. Can you imagine? The driver who scored all the points for Sauber, but has had eight Q1 exits.

[00:18:02] Barring Sonny Hayes. Barring Sonny. And, I don't know, JP, Josh Rappieres, whatever. Yeah. Yeah. But I find that very interesting. Because Nico was the one performing in the last couple of races. And in those races, we required, I say we on behalf of Sauber, but they required a lot of consistency in tyre management and a sharp brain to manage the changing circumstances.

[00:18:31] Now, Botoletto on pure pace has obliterated Halkenberg. Sure, he made a lock-up and that turned out to be very costly. But hearing that he was in the top 10 for all the sessions and then getting P8? Wow, that's unbelievable. And also unbelievable to hear that Liam Lawson has only outqualified Isaac Hajar for the second time in their nine races together. Which is crazy. And Abhishek has a comment on that. Saying Hajar may be trying not to go too fast too soon in case the Red Bull seat comes calling.

[00:19:00] Yes, sir. That is exactly that. That is exactly what we were discussing last night, weren't we? That if Red Bull do indeed end up losing Max Verstappen, they shouldn't get Hajar. They should probably get George Russell. But yeah, it's... I love these points because everyone's been hyping Hajar and suddenly comes Liam Lawson. And Racing Bulls... We need that. Yeah, and Racing Bulls were so pleased. They came on the radio and they said, well done, mate. We're all so happy for you.

[00:19:29] You worked very hard on your way to get that result. Let's make it stick. And love it, right? I mean, this is what we watch Formula One for. For drivers to actually, you know, succeed. And talking of drivers who didn't succeed today. Lance Stroll's seventh Q1 exit of the season. Esteban Ocon's 17th at the sixth Q1 exit.

[00:19:53] And Carlos Sainz in 19th, the third consecutive Q1 exit of the season. Wow. Strange. But crucially... You didn't have to mention it. Crucially, all rookies made it through to Q2 today. And Q1, nobody actually complained of traffic. Usually that's one of those challenges in Austria. Short lap, everyone wants clean air, you know, etc.

[00:20:22] Or they want to pick up a toe. But nobody actually was complaining of traffic. And Max Verstappen gave a toe to Gabriel Bortoletto saying, he's having a great weekend. I thought I'm not going to make it anyway. So why don't I just give him a toe? I love that guy. Great. I'm so glad you steered the conversation away very quickly. What about... Are Williams racing this weekend? Oh, I thought Carlos had an appendix surgery. No, he's not around. He's not around. Is he? He definitely isn't.

[00:20:52] But actually very, very surprising to see that Williams got beaten by an Alpine, by a racing bull and a Sauber. At one point, we thought we had a very clear and defined midfield. But that's not the case anymore. And that is phenomenal. And for the race, that opens up so many possibilities, doesn't it? Because Lawson, we know, is someone who loves to keep his elbows out. But the Haas drivers, who you would normally expect to go on the alternate strategy and go long and do the other stuff, they're further back.

[00:21:21] And they are going to try those shenanigans again. I wonder how Sauber play things out. This time, they won't have the extra soft compound tyre that Hulkenberg has been using, put into good use recently. And on top of that, you've got Albon very closely behind, who will have an extra set of soft compound tyres. So that midfield, Kunal, is going to be a very combative midfield. And I really like the sound of that. And that's what Nico Hulkenberg did the last couple of races, right? He went out in Q1, saved all those softs, used it in the race and scored points.

[00:21:51] But let's get to bold predictions. But OK, just one second. Before we go to bold predictions, very interestingly, Lewis Hamilton actually lost P2 in the last sector. He said he could have actually qualified higher. He said the rest of the lap was very, in his words, strong, super strong. So you can imagine when Lewis Hamilton also feels comfortable in that Ferrari.

[00:22:19] So is he on your bold podium prediction, Samuel? No. Oh, no. Oh. No. He was the one who caused the grass fire today, by the way, which is fine. There's the grass fire today. Wow. There was a red flag with the grass fire. And it wasn't because of the cars creating sparks on track. It was because a car drove off track to create the sparks. So couldn't have been more obvious is what the FIA said.

[00:22:49] But OK, my bold prediction, since you are now really giving this a thought, I would say I think we're going to be three different constructors on the podium. And I think Lando Norris is actually pulling a lot of points on Oscar Fiastri tomorrow. There was just some level of confidence in that dude today and yesterday and in the conference today.

[00:23:18] I think that's what's happening. 24 minutes in, what do you think is happening? I'm going to ask you to elaborate on how. How do you think we're going to get three different constructors? Because that clearly means that something's gone wrong for one McLaren and one Ferrari. I wonder. I don't think it's just gone wrong. I just think in race pace, it's easier. It's a track where it's much easier to overtake.

[00:23:41] It's a track where strategy usually means just getting clear track position if you can, or running as optimum stint lengths as you can, because you can always make the overtakes. For example, if you go longer, but you create that lap, you know, the tire delta to your rivals, you can come out and, you know, pull off an overtake. And yeah, so I think it's going to be three different teams on the podium. I don't rule out Max Verstappen yet.

[00:24:11] And maybe, I mean, it's actually the worst place for Max, like we've been saying, because it's imagine he's going to start seventh. And he's got to overtake all those cars to score points, or more points. And could he just end up picking that penalty point? Don't say that. Not at the Red Bull ring. That'll be crazy. It'll be fun to walk into the Red Bull office next week and see what the mood over there is going to be like after all of this. But prediction time for me.

[00:24:41] I'm going to keep backing Oscar P. Ashtray to the hilt. But I do acknowledge the fact that a confident Lando Norris is an unstoppable Lando Norris. But I'm going to carry on with my prediction. So Oscar for the win. I think Lando's second. But I will go back on my word. I think if it comes down to Leclerc and Lewis, which I think it will come down to, I really feel Lewis has a ninth gear that no other driver does.

[00:25:11] In race space especially. And it's also Silverstone season. So maybe we see the Silverstone before Silverstone. I don't know. So I'm going Lewis for the podium tomorrow. Last comment from Abhishek though. It's like every team barring McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari have two drivers who just can't be close together on the grid. Unlike Sonny and Joshua back racing. Spoilers. You're giving away spoilers. Very naughty of you. What about the other people? Sarang has also sent his prediction.

[00:25:39] He's saying Leclerc P2, Hamilton P4 may try and undercut around lap 13 to 15 if they're in McLaren's DRS. Which is very, very possible. In fact, that's just one of the strategy implications that could happen.

[00:25:56] If you make your driver and P4 pit and then you force your team ahead that you're battling to actually either respond to the stop or continue down that road in terms of what their optimal stint lengths are going to be. So will Ferrari actually pressurize McLaren into making a stop? And let's remember McLaren with their amazing ability to control rear tire temps. It's going to be extremely hot on Sunday.

[00:26:24] So maybe McLaren is just going to be dominant either way. And then it's about papaya rules. Please don't bring them, Zach. Please don't bring them, Andrea. Let them just go and race. Exactly. And I hope Ferrari doesn't have any major issues. Because if we see 2v2 racing, that's better than anything. You could see so many strategic games being played and then two drivers unleashed and two other really good drivers waiting to pounce. They could be in any order.

[00:26:54] It could be Lewis Hamilton first, Oscar Piastri second, Lando third. It could be anything. But that's the fun of it all. And that's why we're all going to be watching. Almost all of us. I won't. Unfortunately, I'll have to go back and watch the highlights. But you guys should. And as we discussed earlier, Kunal is going to be making his Hindi commentary debut. In fact, commentary debut full stop tomorrow on the Fan Code Hindi broadcast along with Chetan Narula. So make sure you check that out, guys, if you're watching in India.

[00:27:20] But if you're watching in other countries around the world and if you don't speak Hindi, perfect. Still watch the race. Still come back. We'll be right here discussing the race. I won't be. But we will make sure that there's a show going on. It will be a lot of fun. Make sure you subscribe to the Inside Line F1 podcast. Click on the bell notification so that you know when we go live next. And enjoy the Grand Prix tomorrow. Take care, everyone. Bye-bye.