In this episode of Editorial, Mr. Sujit Nair analyzes the possibility of JDU supremo Nitish Kumar leaving the NDA alliance to join the INDIA bloc. Speculations are rife about Mr. Kumar's potential shift to the INDIA alliance ahead of the Bihar assembly elections. However, Mr. Nair dismisses these chances, suggesting that such a move could harm both his party and his personal political standing. Additionally, Mr. Nair explores the likelihood of Sharad Pawar joining the NDA.
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[00:00:00] Namaskar! Welcome to another episode of Editorial. One of the most important things about our lives is how our administration or our government is run. Also one of the important things about life is whether our government is stable, whether they will be able to run the country properly.
[00:00:24] Now, there are a lot of rumors which are popping up which says that Nitish Kumar may quit.
[00:00:32] The Bharatiya Janata Party headed NDA. Nitish Kumar with his 12 MPs may quit. Is there some logic? Let's discuss this. Let's get right into the show.
[00:00:44] You see, Mr. Nitish Kumar is known to be one of the most opportunist politician that there is. There is no doubt about it. Absolutely no doubt about it.
[00:01:01] Nitish Kumar is somebody who I don't think any political party can trust 100%. In fact, actually to my mind, this is what I think, my opinion, I don't think any political party can trust Nitish Kumar at all.
[00:01:20] I don't think that his own party can trust him as to where and when and which party he may align to or decide to leave.
[00:01:30] This is the point number one.
[00:01:31] Now, point number two is there are a lot of rumors that say that Nitish Kumar may quit the NDA after Makar Sankrati, which is 14th of January, auspicious date and all that. He may quit and he may want to fight Bihar election on his own, not with the help of Bharatiya Janata Party. He may want to fight Bihar election on his own.
[00:01:55] A set of political analysis say that, listen, you know what, there has been some kind of a discussion between RJD and Nitish Kumar like they had so many times.
[00:02:05] There are still some discussions going on and chances are that he may want to align with them.
[00:02:10] Nitish Kumar, by the way, has completely denied saying that there is no way he is going to go back to the grand alliance, which is RJD Congress and Nitish Kumar.
[00:02:20] He says there is no way, no way in hell that I am going to go with that alliance.
[00:02:25] This is what Nitish Kumar says.
[00:02:27] But the fact remains there, like I always said, it is Nitish Kumar.
[00:02:31] So one doesn't know.
[00:02:34] Now, let's look at the ganit, let's look at the math.
[00:02:38] The math is today NDA has around 293 MPs supporting it.
[00:02:46] That is National Democratic Alliance headed by Bharatiya Janata Party, which has got 240.
[00:02:52] Nitish Kumar has got 12 MPs of his own.
[00:02:54] So, if assuming Nitish Kumar walks out of NDA, it is not that the government will fall and all that.
[00:03:02] They still will have around 281 seats.
[00:03:06] 275 is the magic number.
[00:03:08] So, if Nitish goes out today, nothing drastic is going to happen.
[00:03:14] It will be a wafer thin margin and all of that.
[00:03:16] That goes without saying, number one.
[00:03:19] Number two is, if today Nitish Kumar moves out of the NDA, possibly he would be inviting the biggest trouble for himself.
[00:03:31] Because what is going to happen after that for him is going to be something that he will regret all his life.
[00:03:37] Because every possible ED, IT, CBI, the whole world will be falling on him like a back of bricks.
[00:03:47] So, the fact remains that, to my mind, I don't think Nitish Kumar, while he is an opportunist, but I don't think he is not intelligent enough,
[00:04:01] I would rather use good words, not intelligent enough to understand that quitting from NDA would mean a lot of harm to him.
[00:04:11] His political career, his political party and personally him through lot of central agencies and forces and others.
[00:04:22] Now, is it wise for Nitish Kumar to continue with Bharatiya Janata party?
[00:04:27] Technically speaking, no political party is safe to have an alliance with Bharatiya Janata party.
[00:04:35] Look at what happened to Shiva Sena.
[00:04:38] Uddhav Thakre has lost Shiva Sena to Ekna Shinde.
[00:04:42] Now, is Ekna Shinde enjoying Shiva Sena?
[00:04:45] No, neither is he.
[00:04:46] Even he is having a problem holding his party together.
[00:04:50] Why?
[00:04:50] Because of this Jagarnath Bharatiya Janata party in Maharashtra.
[00:04:53] So, example number one here, right there in Maharashtra.
[00:04:58] And so on and so forth.
[00:05:00] It has been almost in all the places.
[00:05:03] Akali Dal, same difference.
[00:05:06] Odisha though was quite, they were supporting NDA through and through.
[00:05:10] Biju Janata Dal, look at the state of Biju Janata Dal today.
[00:05:13] Look at the state of Jagandradi today.
[00:05:15] He too was though not an ally of NDA, but he was supporting NDA.
[00:05:19] He still supports NDA.
[00:05:20] Look at the state where he is in and so on and so forth.
[00:05:24] So, political parties who have aligned with the Bharatiya Janata party either have been decimated or into tatters.
[00:05:33] Almost depending on Bharatiya Janata party.
[00:05:36] That is the state that is today.
[00:05:37] Look at NCP.
[00:05:39] That is Ajit Pahar allied with Bharatiya Janata party.
[00:05:42] Look at the portfolios that Ajit Pahar has.
[00:05:44] Look at the power that Ajit Pahar has.
[00:05:47] In the larger context, I don't even think NCP has a role to play in Maharashtra.
[00:05:54] To be very honest with you.
[00:05:55] I am talking about the Ajit Pahar division which is actually the original NCP.
[00:05:59] So, the point is, yes, coming back to my original topic.
[00:06:03] The point is, it would be wise for Nitish Kumar to split from the Bharatiya Janata party alliance in Bihar.
[00:06:15] Which he may.
[00:06:17] Because standing alone, fighting alone will help him at least to retain his party.
[00:06:23] At least to have his party in one piece.
[00:06:26] In one piece.
[00:06:28] So, that part he may want to do.
[00:06:32] For the sake of his party, for the sake of his own existence.
[00:06:35] But I don't think there is any way in hell that he is going to get himself out of NDA alliance.
[00:06:41] In the center, he will be very much part of the NDA alliance.
[00:06:45] In the center.
[00:06:46] This is something that I am sure he will do it for himself.
[00:06:51] His own survival.
[00:06:54] And then, of course, for his party's survival.
[00:06:57] This is what my take is.
[00:06:58] Number one.
[00:06:59] Number two is, with this take, there is a new one that is coming through.
[00:07:03] That is, Sharad Pawar may integrate into the Ajit Pawar, whatever, the NCP.
[00:07:10] NCP will come back together.
[00:07:12] Now, under normal circumstances, I would have told you yes.
[00:07:16] Sharad Pawar will integrate with NCP.
[00:07:20] And now be part of the NDA government.
[00:07:24] All that I would have said.
[00:07:26] Because, like I said, two years before, I said, last year, I said, last month, I said,
[00:07:33] now, Sharad Pawar, the Ajit Pawar, Sharad Pawar split, no matter what, how is it playing out
[00:07:39] in the media, Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar split has been something that was a planned split.
[00:07:46] It was not that Sharad Pawar was unaware of this.
[00:07:49] It was not that it happened one fine day, like Shinde and Uddhav Thakere split, which genuinely
[00:07:55] happened one fine day, Uddhav didn't know, and so on and so forth.
[00:07:58] Ajit Pawar possibly went to the other side with blessings from Sharad Pawar.
[00:08:05] I believe this.
[00:08:06] I believed this.
[00:08:07] I believe it.
[00:08:07] And I continue to believe it.
[00:08:09] That said, I am very doubtful whether Sharad Pawar will join the NDA fold.
[00:08:19] in the center.
[00:08:20] Reason being two.
[00:08:22] Number one is Sharad Pawar is not the Sharad Pawar that he was five years back or 10 years
[00:08:28] back or 15 years back.
[00:08:30] At least he was fit.
[00:08:32] He was very active.
[00:08:33] Well, God's grace, he is still active, but he is not as fit as what he used to be.
[00:08:40] Which means that Supriya Sule, for whom he has developed or whatever strategies now that
[00:08:48] he takes is with his daughter in mind.
[00:08:51] He, Supriya Sule will actually have to take the mantles of her party in her hand.
[00:08:56] If he now integrates with the NCP, that is Ajit Pawar NCP, first and foremost is Supriya Sule
[00:09:02] will have a very formidable opponent that is Ajit Pawar who has tasted success on his own
[00:09:08] in the Vidana Sabha.
[00:09:10] So, she will have a formidable opposition.
[00:09:13] Secondly, the chances of NCP being gobbled up or decimated by Bharatiya Janata party is
[00:09:23] very high.
[00:09:24] Then what happens to his daughter?
[00:09:26] At least today, his daughter and the NCP, Sharad Pawar Wing, at least has an identity.
[00:09:34] They have a vote bank.
[00:09:36] They have a vote base.
[00:09:38] They have a constituency.
[00:09:40] They have a set of constituencies which they still dominate.
[00:09:46] If tomorrow they tie up with Bharatiya Janata party, chances are that part will be over.
[00:09:53] The identity of Supriya Sule and her NCP may be over.
[00:10:02] The power of the powers in Maharashtra may be over.
[00:10:08] That Sharad Pawar may not want.
[00:10:13] That Sharad Pawar may not want.
[00:10:14] So, unless and until there is something massively looming large over him or some, he believes
[00:10:22] that this is just not going to happen or this party may just break into pieces or the party
[00:10:28] may actually disintegrate on its own.
[00:10:31] The chances of Sharad Pawar therefore formally, formally aligning with NDA, integrating with
[00:10:39] the party that is the NCP and becoming one once again, chances are very, I think, very less.
[00:10:49] So, the way I see it is as follows.
[00:10:52] Nitish Kumar may move out of Bharatiya Janata party alliance in Bihar, fight elections on his own.
[00:10:59] Then, after the election, what happens that I think one has to see.
[00:11:04] Chances are he may come back with Bharatiya Janata party.
[00:11:08] But he will not part from NDA in the centre.
[00:11:13] He will still be with the NDA and partners in the centre.
[00:11:16] He will remain there.
[00:11:18] As far as NCP is concerned, that is Sharad Pawar being NCP is concerned,
[00:11:22] I do not think Sharad Pawar will formally align with NDA right now.
[00:11:29] I don't think he will do that.
[00:11:30] He, unless and until something, like I said, is seriously looming large over him,
[00:11:36] which we don't know, he will not align.
[00:11:38] He will still want Sharad Pawar NCP to have a separate identity.
[00:11:43] He would still want his daughter to have a separate identity in Maharashtra.
[00:11:49] That's the point I wanted to make through this editorial.
[00:11:52] Till I see you next time, that's tomorrow at 10.
[00:11:56] Namaskar.