Editorial with Sujit Nair | Prospects Of Congress In Maharashtra Elections | Rahul Gandhi | MVA

[00:00:00] Namaskar, welcome to another episode of editorial. Some big channels reported that there was a meeting last Thursday in Haryana regarding Haryana elections done by top leaders of Congress and some channels reported that Rahul Gandhi was furious. He walked out of the meeting angry and all of that.

[00:00:30] Really? Did he?

[00:00:32] Let's discuss that. That's point number one. Point number two is you see normally it's a tendency. It's a tendency when a political party or even a brand for instance as far as we are concerned even a brand when one particular brand one particular political party loses a market or loses an election you tend to be demoralized and you say that oh there is that problem then whenever you look at that political party

[00:00:59] That political brand you always see negative. You don't tend to see positive and most of the analysis then that comes to you are negative analysis.

[00:01:11] Let's talk about Maharashtra elections and let's talk about Congress prospects in Maharashtra. Let's get right into the show.

[00:01:19] So there was this review meeting that happened in Haryana after the Haryana election. Congress review meeting that happened in Haryana after Haryana elections.

[00:01:35] Wherein some channels say that you know they got internal information that Rahul Gandhi was very upset and you know he was absolutely livid and he said everything is EVM's mistake and you know EC has a lot of answering to do that EC.

[00:01:49] His election commission has got a lot of answering to do and everything is EVM's mistake and he also said that you know internal fight this is all wrong we could have won this election and he walked out.

[00:01:57] He stormed out of the meeting. This is what some channels say they have internal information.

[00:02:03] Now we also have internal information correct information is is exclusive. We also have internal information and our internal information doesn't say anything of that.

[00:02:17] There was no drama. Of course review meeting a lot of things were discussed primarily the internal cooperation was discussed.

[00:02:26] How why did it go wrong and how could it be done better was discussed. Yes, this was a winning election which Congress lost was discussed.

[00:02:38] And role of the election commission was discussed but nothing so dramatic where Rahul Gandhi walked out and shouted and EVM and everything is EVM's mistake and all that all that didn't happen.

[00:02:51] All this panic didn't happen. This was a regular review meeting which went off as a regular review meeting and what happened was what a regular review meeting would look like that is what happened.

[00:03:07] They were were they disappointed? Of course they were disappointed. Were they questioning the way it all happened? Of course they were questioning the way the election was conducted and the way Congress performed in that election. Of course.

[00:03:21] Review meeting what does review meeting mean? What does review meeting mean? All of that happened. But people coming out and saying that no, are a Bapre Rahul Gandhi is stormed out and all that is to our information. To our information nothing of that sort happened.

[00:03:38] Everything is fine. Everything is under control and they lost one election. They are ready to fight the next that is Maharashtra.

[00:03:46] This is the first point I wanted to make. You know why this point is important? This point is important is because this is how narratives are built. This is how narratives are built. When you are saying that the leader of a particular party was panicked and he was shaken and he lost control and he was stormed out of the meeting and all that.

[00:04:07] What you are saying is that what you are saying is what you are saying is what you are saying is what you are saying is the party is shaky. The party is shaky. Everybody in the party is shaky because one loss and everything is going down the drain.

[00:04:17] Again, that impression which is why you are saying is why you are saying that the party is when they lost the party is not correct.

[00:04:21] And I thought to be fair to a political party that lost an election which they could have won. They lost that election. To be fair to that political party while there is a lot of disappointment but such panic such storming out and such drama and all didn't happen.

[00:04:38] This is why I thought I should be fair to you. That is my point number one. Now let me get to my point number two.

[00:04:48] You see Maharashtra as of now is absolutely fine. The Mahavikazagadi is doing fine and to a very major extent Mahayuthi as a group is also currently doing fine.

[00:05:02] What happens now? You see a lot of people sit in front of you and predict which I have been telling you this from possibly 2024 general election.

[00:05:10] The prediction. Okay. So they call themselves consultants, experts, well they comment it and predict. Now this prediction game, no. This prediction game.

[00:05:19] This prediction game actually is nothing but just guesstimation. Just guesstimation. And I will tell you what I mean by that and I will come to the point in a while.

[00:05:32] This prediction game is justification is because in 2019, do you think Sharath Pawar predicted that Uddhav Thakre will form the government with Sharath Pawar and Congress?

[00:05:43] Do you think Sharath Pawar predicted? Do you think Congress predicted that they will tie up with a Shivasena which was an integral part 25 year old relationship with Bharatiya Janata Party that they will tie up with Shivasena in 2019 and form a government in Maharashtra together?

[00:06:00] Do you think Congress leaders predicted? So NCP leader Sharath Pawar didn't predict, Congress leader Sonia Gandhi stroke Rahul Gandhi then didn't predict. How can expert, political experts predict that he will tie up with a Shivasena? How can political experts?

[00:06:18] The person who is playing the game, who is watching the ball, hitting the ball doesn't know that he is going to hit a four or six, but the commentator will tell you next ball he will hit six. Is that possible even?

[00:06:31] And that is how a lot of these predictions are happening. A lot of these predictions. I'm not saying all predictions are happening like that. I'm saying a lot of ground realities are being put in front of you, which is ground reality.

[00:06:43] But this thing about, you know, oh they are having a problem. Oh there's a CM issue. Oh that person wants to be a CM, but this person also wants to be a CM, but this person is very sure of being a CM. Therefore they're pulling. Therefore there's a lot of internal fights. All of this, a lot of this are made up. A lot of this are only studio conversations.

[00:07:02] On ground, actually it is not. Why is it not? It is not is because you see the chances of the opposition, which is Mahavika Zagadi in Maharashtra stroke India in rest of the country for them to split apart unless and until there is some huge external force that is forcing them to split apart.

[00:07:26] You know what external force that I am talking to you about, but the chances of these people spitting apart is very less. You know why? Because for them, this election is not just about becoming a chief minister.

[00:07:40] For Anuddhav Thakre, this election is not just about becoming a chief minister. For Sharad Pawar, this election is not just about making his NCP person a chief minister. For Congress also, for Congress also, it is not just about making their person the chief minister.

[00:07:56] End of the day, it is all about ensuring that they get power in Maharashtra. All because if they don't, it will be questioning their survival. So these elections for the opposition, like I said, be it India Alliance or be it Mahavika Zagadi in Maharashtra is not about power. It is about survival.

[00:08:20] So are we getting the drift? So a lot of these things know that otherwise would have happened. Why you don't make me chief? I am going. All this know won't happen. It is not that easy. There are a lot of other factors that plays into this particular situation. So that's number one.

[00:08:38] So when somebody sits and tells you that, you know, everything is going wrong because, you know, Shiv Sena wants to be the chief minister, everything is going wrong because Congress wants to be the chief minister.

[00:08:48] All that is more of rumors than of reality. Now you will ask me, Sanjay Raut has said this. You will ask me, hey, Baba, Congress party people have said that we are going to be the chief minister.

[00:09:04] NCP has not actually. NCP is the only party which has not been talking much. You see, there is a reason for it. Sanjay Raut has his rank and file. Sanjay Raut has a huge political party rank and file right up to a gully promuk.

[00:09:21] You know, these workers who work in one gully, they have huge lakhs and lakhs of workers. How do you think he will keep the workers motivated?

[00:09:31] If he says that, do you think his workers will be motivated? His workers who is wearing a saffron band and calling himself a Shiv Senik would like to see his Shiv Sena chief minister.

[00:09:48] So to ensure that that worker is made to believe that possibly there is a chance that there could be Shiv Sena chief minister, Sanjay Raut will come out and say, our chief minister will be our chief minister.

[00:10:04] Isn't that fair? Isn't that fair? Now, Congress is a national party. Congress has been the dominant party in Maharashtra whenever it came to Congress and CP government.

[00:10:16] Congress has made their chief ministers. Now, if Congress says, no, no, Baba, Uddar Thakarai wants to be a chief minister, let him be a chief minister.

[00:10:24] If Congress says it now, same question, Congress rank and file. They will say, what is this? We have already given up the position of chief minister.

[00:10:33] What will you get? Which means we are not going to play a vital role in this government. Even our government happens.

[00:10:38] Doesn't that demotivate the rank and file? So what really happens is, believe me you when I say this, believe me you when I say this, a lot of these leaders that come and talk to you, that come in front of camera with, you know, people like Sanjay Raut and all, you know, all these are rehearsed and scripted dialogues which are made.

[00:11:03] And fair also. These dialogues are for their rank and file. These dialogues are to motivate their rank and file.

[00:11:12] These dialogues are to ensure that their rank and file come out, get people out of their homes, get them to the booth, make them vote for the political party and stay motivated.

[00:11:22] That is why a lot of these people talk about my chief minister and your chief minister and that chief minister and this chief minister.

[00:11:30] So this is what it is.

[00:11:32] Don't equate that to saying that, oh, there is a fight as to who will be the chief minister and that particular political party.

[00:11:40] This is true with Mahavika Sakkari.

[00:11:42] This is also true with Mahayuti.

[00:11:44] Let me also be very clear on that.

[00:11:47] This is true to Mahayuti also.

[00:11:48] Shinde will say, I will be the chief minister.

[00:11:50] BJP will say, why not?

[00:11:51] I mean, you know, now BJP is not saying that.

[00:11:54] I am surprised.

[00:11:55] Possibly because BJP does not seem to be having a chief ministerial face at the moment.

[00:11:59] But, you know, at some point in time, you will hear that in BJP also.

[00:12:04] So, TK.

[00:12:05] Now, this is where it stands.

[00:12:07] Now, let's talk about point number two.

[00:12:11] Like I told you, we are going to focus on Maharashtra.

[00:12:14] And what I tell you now could change in the next 10 days, in the next 15 days, in the next 20 days.

[00:12:21] It could change because believe me, I am going to tell you what exactly we see on ground.

[00:12:25] So there is no ego.

[00:12:27] There is no bet.

[00:12:28] There is no my view and nothing.

[00:12:31] I will tell you currently what we see on ground and what our 32 odd stringers in Maharashtra are giving us,

[00:12:38] are telling us and are reporting to us, which has just started.

[00:12:42] So it's too early in the day, but all the same.

[00:12:45] Now, the way we understand it is that the Maji Ladki Bahin, which is Meri Ladli Behna in Madhya Pradesh,

[00:12:55] which was replicated in Maharashtra.

[00:12:56] Of course, Maharashtra pays 1,500 rupees.

[00:12:58] This particular freebie or this particular program is working for Iknash Shinde and Mahayuti.

[00:13:08] It is working for Mahayuti.

[00:13:09] You know, a lot of freebies, a lot of freebies have been announced.

[00:13:16] For instance, my colleague will be today on ground reporting to you, telling you that tolls in Maharashtra,

[00:13:25] which is a big issue in Mumbai, big issue in Maharashtra because that caused us a lot of problem.

[00:13:30] Because from Mumbai to Thane, we had to pay toll.

[00:13:33] From Thane back to Mumbai, we had to pay tolls and which were fairly large amounts.

[00:13:36] So this toll, they have done away with.

[00:13:40] These tolls, they have done away with.

[00:13:42] Like I told you, my colleague Shubham will be reporting it to you on ground from today at 12 o'clock.

[00:13:47] Those are done away with.

[00:13:48] And there are a lot of other toll stations where tolls have been taken off, been done away with.

[00:13:52] So the point is, while rural Maharashtra, there is Maji Ladli, Bahin, Maji Ladla, Ladla, Bhahu

[00:13:59] and all of that happening, which is the apparent is 10,000 rupees, which is 1,500 rupees for girl, women who are from economical backward classes.

[00:14:09] All this is being happening.

[00:14:12] So even the middle class, the upper middle class, they are also enticed by ensuring that toll is abolished.

[00:14:19] Toll system is abolished.

[00:14:20] So now they don't have to pay toll every day, morning, night, morning, night, whenever they cross over.

[00:14:26] Because a lot of us stay in work in Mumbai and stay in the suburbs, stay in places like Thane.

[00:14:32] Every day you have to pay toll to go into the city, come out of the city.

[00:14:36] So all of that is taken care of.

[00:14:38] So a lot of freebies have been offered.

[00:14:42] Now, obviously, these freebies are working for Mahayuti.

[00:14:46] Now, if you ask me, three months before today, if you would have asked me, I would have said that it's a sweep for Mahavika Zagadi,

[00:14:57] which is Congress, Shiva Sena and NCP, that is Sharat Power NCP.

[00:15:02] I would have said it's a clean sweep.

[00:15:04] I would have said that the chances of Mahayuti crossing 100, 120 would be very difficult, is what I would have told you,

[00:15:12] if you would have spoken three months back.

[00:15:14] Today, as thing stands and after my first roundup, first visit, what we understand from the market is that Mahayuti is picking up.

[00:15:25] There is no question about it.

[00:15:26] Mahayuti is picking up.

[00:15:28] Their popularity is picking up.

[00:15:29] And the kind of freebies, the kind of, like I said, doing away with tolls and all of these programs,

[00:15:36] Mahji, Ladli, Bahina and all are actually percolating and helping them.

[00:15:40] So that is a fact.

[00:15:42] But, therefore, it's a, now it's all Mahayuti and nothing to do and Mahavika Zagadi cannot make it happen.

[00:15:49] Absolutely not.

[00:15:51] Absolutely not.

[00:15:52] I still tell you, the edge in Maharashtra is still with Mahavika Zagadi.

[00:15:57] But, Mahayuti is picking up and picking up fast.

[00:16:01] This is what my, the status I would say today is.

[00:16:04] Today, like I said, 10 days from today, I may give you a different reaction and that's how it actually works.

[00:16:11] That's how it actually works.

[00:16:13] There is nothing, you know, casted in iron and all that.

[00:16:16] So it works that way.

[00:16:19] So that's number two.

[00:16:21] Number three is last point that I wanted to make.

[00:16:25] Mahavika Zagadi out of 288 seats have got a fix on 210 seats.

[00:16:31] 210 seats are completely, they have agreed on, they have agreed who is going to stand, which party is going to stand, who is going to be the candidate, so on and so forth.

[00:16:40] They have agreed on and very soon they will also put it up in front of you.

[00:16:43] Now that's happened.

[00:16:44] We are talking about another 70 odd seats that they have to still more finalize, which I think will finalize.

[00:16:52] So Mahavika Zagadi as on now is playing very well.

[00:16:55] As far as Mahayuti is concerned, as far as Shinde and Bharatiya Janata Party is concerned, I think because now Shinde is supreme leader.

[00:17:04] He is number one, clearly number one.

[00:17:06] There is no Devendra Patnavis as his competition or standing next to him or trying to pull him down.

[00:17:12] He is clearly number one.

[00:17:14] I think that decision Bharatiya Janata Party and Shinde gang has taken together and that part is made very clear.

[00:17:21] Shinde is leading the show.

[00:17:23] So there everything is perfect.

[00:17:26] Now the odd man out here is Ajit Pawar.

[00:17:30] Ajit Pawar could be the person who could make a little difference.

[00:17:36] Not that Ajit Pawar can make a massive difference to this election at all.

[00:17:39] Ajit Pawar could make a difference.

[00:17:41] And that part is something that one needs to see.

[00:17:45] So Ajit Pawar as far as Mahayuti is concerned is still a question mark.

[00:17:50] But otherwise Mahayuti too is intact with a clear leader.

[00:17:54] And that leader is as of today is Eknash Shinde.

[00:17:59] They are fighting under the leadership of Eknash Shinde and not Devendra Patnavis.

[00:18:04] Devendra Patnavis has been delegated to number two.

[00:18:07] And that's the way it is.

[00:18:08] So there is no confusion there.

[00:18:10] Point number three.

[00:18:11] Point number four.

[00:18:12] Last point.

[00:18:14] You see there is AAP fighting in Mumbai.

[00:18:16] Which is what they claim they will.

[00:18:18] They said that they are going to fight in 32 seats in Mumbai.

[00:18:22] Okay.

[00:18:22] So AAP is definitely going to cause some problems for the Mahavikasagadi.

[00:18:28] Because obviously their votes are going to be Mahavikasagadi.

[00:18:31] AAP will cause more problems for Congress part of Mahavikasagadi.

[00:18:35] Rather than the Shivasana part of Mahavikasagadi.

[00:18:37] For the simple reason that a lot of AAP voters are Congress convertees.

[00:18:42] So it will be Congress that they will eat into.

[00:18:46] And not really Shivasana votes for that matter of fact.

[00:18:50] So that's point number one.

[00:18:51] Point number two is Raj Thakre factor.

[00:18:54] Now Raj Thakre has a set of votes in Maharashtra.

[00:18:58] Okay.

[00:18:59] Those votes does not win him seats.

[00:19:01] But there is a percentage of people who votes for Raj Thakre.

[00:19:05] So Raj Thakre he is fighting on his own.

[00:19:09] He too he is not aligned to anybody.

[00:19:11] But he in turn is going to eat into Shivasana votes.

[00:19:16] Now again let us be very clear about these two people.

[00:19:19] You see the AAP factor is going could possibly eat into Congress vote.

[00:19:26] Though it will not be much.

[00:19:28] Because AAP is not very popular in Mumbai and all that.

[00:19:31] AAP has no popularity and all that in Mumbai.

[00:19:33] But whatever little they are going to eat into Congress votes.

[00:19:37] And Raj Thakre.

[00:19:39] Raj Thakre's Maharashtra now Nirmani Sena is going to definitely eat into Shivasana's vote.

[00:19:46] So both these are going to directly affect the Mahavikasagadi.

[00:19:50] Now let us talk about the last part of the chain.

[00:19:54] And that is Vanchit Bahujanagadi.

[00:19:57] As far as MIM is concerned.

[00:19:59] I don't think MIM will make any difference in Maharashtra.

[00:20:02] Absolutely no difference.

[00:20:04] No Muslims are going to vote for MIM.

[00:20:07] So MIM is not going to make a difference.

[00:20:09] Prakash Ambedkar and his Vanchit Bahujanagadi as always and as usual.

[00:20:14] Will definitely have some impact again on Mahavikasagadi vote.

[00:20:18] So Mahavikasagadi vote has three factors that could make some difference.

[00:20:26] But still as on 2.30 today 14th of October I say the edge is with Mahavikasagadi.

[00:20:35] 24th I may give you a different picture if I see that on ground.

[00:20:41] This is the way we will work.

[00:20:43] This is the way we will keep you informed.

[00:20:45] Like I told you we will try and give you a continuous update.

[00:20:49] What is happening in Maharashtra.

[00:20:51] And yeah till I see you next time.

[00:20:55] That's tomorrow at 10 o'clock.

[00:20:57] Possibly with another topic.

[00:20:59] This time around dealing with a national topic.

[00:21:02] Namaskar.

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