In this episode of The Editorial, Mr. Sujit Nair discusses the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections. He analyzes how, despite the absence of a Modi wave or a Fadnavis wave, the BJP secured 132 seats, emerging as the largest party in the state. Mr. Nair also shares his feedback on key leaders from both the Mahayuti and the MVA alliances.
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[00:00:00] Namaskar! Welcome to another episode of Editorial. Today would possibly be my last episode on Maharashtra Elections 2024. My last editorial.
[00:00:18] I want to talk to you about a couple of things that I felt, I feel and possibly will put it up in front of you for the last time in this season.
[00:00:31] Let's get right into the show. Now let us be very honest with you. This time around when we were talking about Maharashtra Elections,
[00:00:48] when we were trying to figure out what Maharashtra election was, how Maharashtra election was doing,
[00:00:55] we had our own set of stringers, we had our own set of reporters on ground, quite well spread, thanks to your support.
[00:01:07] We had our stringers on ground and the constant feedback that we got till the date of the election and even one day after the election,
[00:01:19] which is after the exit poll, is that the competition was absolutely tough. Till around 10 days or 7 days before the election, it was said that the competition is absolutely tough but
[00:01:35] Mahayuti has a slight edge. But Mahayuti is catching up, catching up too soon. This is what the feedback we got from ground.
[00:01:49] After the election or on the day of the election, a lot of people, a lot of our teammates across Maharashtra told us,
[00:01:57] we think Mahayuti has caught up. Mahayuti has caught up, but it's too tough, too close a fight. But we think Mahayuti has caught up. Some of them said that.
[00:02:12] Mahayuti has caught up. Then the election results happened. And Mahayuti got to 35 out of 288, which Bharatiya Janata Party didn't get that kind of numbers.
[00:02:24] Even during the peak of the peak of the peak of the peak, during 2014, during 2019, they didn't get this kind of numbers.
[00:02:34] Today, there was no Modi wave. There is no Devendra Fartnavi's wave. There is no Bharatiya Janata Party wave.
[00:02:41] And they got 132, which is a record number, a record number in Maharashtra. 132. So good. Good.
[00:02:51] What really happened with these numbers? Number one, Bharatiya Janata Party getting anything less than 100 or 15, 110 would have put them into trouble.
[00:03:08] Would have put them into trouble in Maharashtra is because then, most probably, like I told you, it would have been the powers who takes the decision as to who forms the government.
[00:03:20] Because then, even assuming that Ajit Pawar's NCP must have may not have got 41, would have got 25 also. That 25 would have mattered a lot to Bharatiya Janata Party at that point in time.
[00:03:36] Because if his 25 is not part of the alliance, then possibly, there would have been a chance that he would have aligned with Mahavika Zagadi and picture would have changed.
[00:03:48] So, 132 was very important. And universe ensured that Bharatiya Janata Party got 132.
[00:04:00] 132 for Bharatiya Janata Party was very, very important. Why?
[00:04:04] Because had they got anything less than 132, which is 105, like I told you, or 195, Shinde would have never surrendered the way he surrendered yesterday.
[00:04:16] Saying that, Bhai, jo bhi ho, jo prime minister bolega, I am willing to listen.
[00:04:22] Whatever prime minister decide his gospel for me, I will go with it.
[00:04:27] He would have not surrendered. Why? Because his 50, 40, which he was supposed to get, because let me tell you, like I told you in my earlier discussions, Shinde's popularity actually shot up.
[00:04:39] There is no debate about it. Shinde's popularity has shot up in Maharashtra, undebatable, undebatable.
[00:04:46] He would have known, no, his popularity has shot up. He would have known that it's possibly he who pulled the entire Mayuti to victory.
[00:04:55] He led the Mayuti to victory. It was his face that led Mayuti to victory. It was his efforts that led Mayuti to victory.
[00:05:04] It was his, to a certain extent, to a certain extent, that led Mayuti to victory, wherein he started passing files after files.
[00:05:12] He passed some record number of files, so on and so forth. So, he would have acted very differently, had 132 not happened to Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:05:26] Had Bharatiya Janata Party being 95 or 195, Shinde would have not allowed any other chief minister.
[00:05:34] Shinde would have insisted that I become the chief minister.
[00:05:38] So, the fact remains that, the universe ensured that Bharatiya Janata Party got 132.
[00:05:47] Now, what happens is, with Shinde, without Shinde, with Ajit Pawar, without Ajit Pawar, assuming that Ajit Pawar goes there, enough independence.
[00:05:55] There are other ways that they can get their seats. Now, for Bharatiya Janata Party, it didn't really matter, with or without.
[00:06:04] They were Saksham in their own language. They were capable to ensure that they form the government.
[00:06:10] They form their own government and their chief minister is put up in Maharashtra cabinet.
[00:06:17] They have their chief minister. That they have ensured. 132.
[00:06:22] So, this 132 number was a magical number that they got, that they wanted and that sorted all the problems of Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:06:34] All the problems. A stable government in Maharashtra, a government which is not dependent on either the powers who could flip anyways, nor the Shindes who almost started believing in himself and believed that there is a possibility that he could be continuing as the chief minister.
[00:06:58] Both the things were kept aside. Okay. Now, let me talk to you about the second aspect of it. The second aspect is the vision of Devendra Fadnavis, which I am told a lot of people within the Bharatiya Janata Party didn't appreciate.
[00:07:17] But Devendra Fadnavis' vision of getting in Ajit Pahar, in spite of RSS not so happy, in spite of Central Command not so happy, the fact that he got Ajit Pahar helped him, personally him a lot.
[00:07:38] You know why? Because Ajit Pahar did exactly what his uncle did in 2014. You know what his uncle did? That is, Sharad Pahar did in 2014.
[00:07:47] In 2014, there was a split between the original Shiva Sana, the Uddav Thakare Shiva Sana and Bharatiya Janata Party. Even then, there was a split.
[00:07:58] In 2014, Bharatiya Janata Party had got 122. 122. They required 145. 145 is the magic figure.
[00:08:07] But yet, Bharatiya Janata Party announced, saying that they are going to form the government.
[00:08:12] And you know what Sharad Pahar did then? Sharad Pahar unconditionally gave support to Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:08:19] Why did he give unconditional support to Bharatiya Janata Party? So that he can ensure that the Shiva Sana and Bharatiya Janata Party doesn't come together.
[00:08:29] Because Shiva Sana had got 63. Bharatiya Janata Party needed their support, technically speaking, to form the government.
[00:08:35] But Sharad Pahar weakened Shiva Sana by ensuring that he gave unconditional support 2014 to Bharatiya Janata Party in Maharashtra Assembly.
[00:08:44] And he said, no problem. And later on, even when Shiva Sana actually became the partner, they actually tied up.
[00:08:58] Shiva Sana was a smaller brother. In fact, Shiva Sana didn't get much good portfolios and all that in Bharatiya Janata Party government in 2014.
[00:09:07] Shiva Sana didn't get good support.
[00:09:09] The chances are that Shiva Sana broke in 2019 for good with Bharatiya Janata Party is possibly because the way they were treated from 2014 to 2019.
[00:09:21] So that strategy that Sharad Pahar played in 2014 was repeated by Ajit Pahar in 2024, where day one, day one when he realized his seats won't count.
[00:09:37] His seats won't count much. So if he goes out, he is thrown out also. Nothing will happen except for all the EDs and ITs and all will come back after him.
[00:09:47] So nothing is going to happen. It is better that he stays as he is with Mahayuti.
[00:09:55] He came and the day one, he gave his support to Devendra Patnavesh. Unconditional support, Devendra Patnavesh.
[00:10:03] What happened? It weakened Shinde's bargaining power.
[00:10:10] Shinde had no choice but to accept and surrender to Bharatiya Janata Party saying that whatever the Prime Minister says, good for me.
[00:10:21] With the hope that maybe he will get a chance but the chances are he won't.
[00:10:27] So he surrendered to the Prime Minister. So that also happened. Point number two.
[00:10:34] My last point.
[00:10:36] You see, like I said, the universe ensured that Bharatiya Janata Party got 132.
[00:10:44] During a time when there was no Modi Leher, there was no Bharatiya Janata Party Leher, there was no Devendra Patnavesh Leher in Maharashtra.
[00:10:55] Yet, Maharashtra gave Bharatiya Janata Party a resounding 132, a record-breaking 132 seats.
[00:11:05] They gave.
[00:11:07] Ajit Pahar continues to be the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
[00:11:14] He will get the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
[00:11:16] Now, in a way, if you look at it, right from 2010, you know, after RR Party will resign, Chagan Pujbal took over for some time and then,
[00:11:25] from then, 2010 to 2024, Ajit Pahar was the Deputy Chief Minister.
[00:11:33] Ajit Pahar somehow has now got a permanent sikka of being the Deputy Chief Minister, the number two.
[00:11:41] So, always he has been the number two.
[00:11:46] Number two in Maharashtra politics.
[00:11:50] Ajit Pahar somehow reminds me of Dharmaendra.
[00:11:56] You know, Dharmaendra, if you actually look at his filmy career, he has always been number two to a superstar.
[00:12:03] Number two to Dilip Kumar, number two to Amitabh Bachchan.
[00:12:07] He was number two.
[00:12:08] Dharmaendra never became number one.
[00:12:11] He was number two.
[00:12:12] Ajit Pahar seems to be in that typical slot, number two.
[00:12:17] So, he continues to be number two.
[00:12:20] Ajit Pahar was given a role by Devendra Patnavis, which because of the circumstances that things were,
[00:12:29] Ajit Pahar played that role.
[00:12:30] Ajit Pahar's role was to ensure that he makes Shinde's political position insecure.
[00:12:37] He made Shinde's political position insecure.
[00:12:40] So, he has done his job for Devendra Patnavis, but the fact remains that he was number two.
[00:12:46] He continues to be number two.
[00:12:48] By the looks of it, he will be number two for a long, long time.
[00:12:51] I don't see a promotion coming soon for Ajit Pahar.
[00:12:56] So, Ajit Pahar will go into history books as number two.
[00:13:02] Maharashtra, number two politician.
[00:13:05] That's point number one.
[00:13:07] So, there goes Ajit Pahar.
[00:13:08] Now, as far as NCP is concerned,
[00:13:12] well, NCP will be that smaller brother in Maharashtra politics.
[00:13:20] The smaller brother in the current Mahayuti,
[00:13:23] they will be a smaller brother and they will continue to be there
[00:13:26] till such time that they are loyal and they are committed to Bharatiya Janata Party.
[00:13:33] Now, the problem that is going to have,
[00:13:35] that NCP is going to see with Bharatiya Janata Party possibly,
[00:13:39] will be the constant ideological clash that they may have.
[00:13:45] Bharatiya Janata Party may make a Hindutva claim
[00:13:48] and immediately, NCP will have to go and say,
[00:13:51] no, no, no, no, no.
[00:13:52] I don't have anything.
[00:13:54] They say something that I don't have said.
[00:13:55] This is something that is,
[00:13:57] you will see a lot more in the next five years.
[00:14:00] Wait and watch.
[00:14:01] You will see a lot more in the next five years.
[00:14:05] But yet, NCP doesn't have much of choice
[00:14:07] but to remain loyal to BJP.
[00:14:10] In fact, no other, no party has any choice anyways.
[00:14:14] Let's talk about Iknash Inde.
[00:14:17] Let me start by saying that,
[00:14:19] you know what?
[00:14:20] I have developed a lot of respect for this man,
[00:14:23] Iknash Inde.
[00:14:24] A lot of respect for this man
[00:14:25] because when he came into politics,
[00:14:28] when he broke Shiv Sena
[00:14:29] and he came into politics,
[00:14:31] a lot of us thought that,
[00:14:32] you know, he won't last much.
[00:14:34] He won't be there.
[00:14:35] He is not going to be popular.
[00:14:37] But no.
[00:14:38] He actually proved himself.
[00:14:40] He actually became a very, very popular face.
[00:14:43] He is a very popular face.
[00:14:45] A very popular face in Maharashtra.
[00:14:47] And I assure you,
[00:14:48] if today you take a research,
[00:14:50] today if somebody takes a poll,
[00:14:52] his face will come through
[00:14:53] as the most popular face in Maharashtra.
[00:14:57] Most popular face in Maharashtra.
[00:14:59] The man has really developed himself,
[00:15:01] his character,
[00:15:02] the way he talks,
[00:15:03] the way he connects with people.
[00:15:05] He has connected with people well.
[00:15:08] That is a fact.
[00:15:09] That common man image that this former chief minister has,
[00:15:13] Eknash Inde,
[00:15:14] I think that common man's image is fabulous.
[00:15:17] He is connected with people.
[00:15:19] But now,
[00:15:20] the chances are,
[00:15:22] he may get lost
[00:15:24] in the crowd.
[00:15:27] He may get lost in the crowd
[00:15:28] because end of the day,
[00:15:31] a state only knows a chief minister.
[00:15:36] Constitutionally,
[00:15:37] every file has to go
[00:15:39] for the signature
[00:15:40] of a chief minister of a state.
[00:15:43] A deputy chief minister,
[00:15:44] other minister,
[00:15:45] these are all designations.
[00:15:46] The file has to be approved
[00:15:49] by the chief minister
[00:15:50] or constitutionally,
[00:15:51] there is no value to that file.
[00:15:53] The chief minister has to approve that file.
[00:15:56] So finally,
[00:15:57] the boss
[00:15:58] is chief minister.
[00:16:00] The hero
[00:16:00] is the chief minister.
[00:16:02] The star
[00:16:03] is the chief minister.
[00:16:04] The moment
[00:16:05] the focus is out of that,
[00:16:07] you are lost.
[00:16:09] Lost in the oblivion.
[00:16:11] So that's something
[00:16:13] that
[00:16:14] I think Eknash Inde
[00:16:16] should be worried about.
[00:16:18] The two years
[00:16:19] that he had a dream run
[00:16:21] and he did perform well
[00:16:22] during the two years,
[00:16:24] that
[00:16:25] to maintain
[00:16:26] that kind of popularity,
[00:16:28] to maintain
[00:16:28] that kind of
[00:16:29] top of mind recall,
[00:16:30] it is going to be
[00:16:31] very, very difficult
[00:16:32] for Eknash Inde.
[00:16:35] And the fact that
[00:16:36] he is not
[00:16:37] the most powerful man
[00:16:38] in Maharashtra,
[00:16:39] he doesn't have
[00:16:40] that kind of seats
[00:16:40] in Maharashtra.
[00:16:41] There is nothing much
[00:16:42] he can do
[00:16:43] to
[00:16:43] Bharatiya Janata Party
[00:16:45] to ensure that
[00:16:46] he gets the attention.
[00:16:47] Nothing much he can do.
[00:16:48] So that also
[00:16:50] makes him
[00:16:50] somebody
[00:16:51] who can't even
[00:16:53] shout
[00:16:53] or howl
[00:16:54] or scream
[00:16:56] for attention.
[00:16:58] So,
[00:16:59] like I said,
[00:17:02] this 132
[00:17:03] that
[00:17:04] universe
[00:17:06] or Maharashtra
[00:17:06] gave
[00:17:09] Bharatiya Janata Party
[00:17:11] has
[00:17:11] strategically
[00:17:13] made
[00:17:14] Bharatiya Janata Party
[00:17:16] invincible
[00:17:17] in Maharashtra.
[00:17:19] Invincible.
[00:17:20] this is
[00:17:22] what it is.
[00:17:23] Now,
[00:17:23] last bit
[00:17:24] as far as
[00:17:25] the Pawars
[00:17:26] and
[00:17:27] the
[00:17:28] Thakres
[00:17:29] are concerned,
[00:17:30] I think
[00:17:31] they have a
[00:17:33] very bleak future.
[00:17:35] Thakres,
[00:17:37] Amit Thakre,
[00:17:39] that is
[00:17:40] Raj Thakres
[00:17:41] son lost.
[00:17:43] Raj Thakres
[00:17:43] got
[00:17:44] zero votes.
[00:17:45] Whether
[00:17:45] he was
[00:17:46] whichever
[00:17:46] side
[00:17:47] of
[00:17:47] the
[00:17:48] spectrum,
[00:17:49] whether
[00:17:49] he was
[00:17:50] for
[00:17:50] Bharatiya Janata Party
[00:17:52] or for
[00:17:53] Mahavikas
[00:17:54] Agadi,
[00:17:55] he got
[00:17:56] zero.
[00:17:57] His son
[00:17:57] lost.
[00:17:59] Shiva
[00:17:59] Sina,
[00:17:59] UBT
[00:18:00] got 20
[00:18:01] seats.
[00:18:02] 20
[00:18:02] seats
[00:18:02] out of
[00:18:03] 288.
[00:18:05] Luckily,
[00:18:06] his son
[00:18:06] Aditya
[00:18:07] Thakre
[00:18:08] won.
[00:18:09] But the
[00:18:10] fact remains
[00:18:11] that
[00:18:11] Thakres
[00:18:12] will have
[00:18:12] to fight
[00:18:13] back
[00:18:14] to gain
[00:18:15] the
[00:18:15] Thakre
[00:18:15] legacy
[00:18:16] once again
[00:18:16] in Maharashtra.
[00:18:18] They have
[00:18:18] a long
[00:18:19] and tough
[00:18:20] fight.
[00:18:21] So
[00:18:22] is the
[00:18:23] case
[00:18:23] with Supriya
[00:18:24] Sule.
[00:18:25] Because
[00:18:25] now,
[00:18:26] I think
[00:18:26] it's
[00:18:27] high time
[00:18:27] she takes
[00:18:28] over
[00:18:28] the mantle
[00:18:29] of
[00:18:30] NCP
[00:18:30] and
[00:18:31] she
[00:18:32] fights
[00:18:33] back
[00:18:33] and
[00:18:34] uses
[00:18:35] the next
[00:18:35] five years
[00:18:36] to pull
[00:18:38] NCP
[00:18:38] to a
[00:18:39] situation
[00:18:39] where
[00:18:40] they are
[00:18:41] back
[00:18:41] to give
[00:18:42] a fight
[00:18:43] to the
[00:18:43] Mahayuti
[00:18:45] or to
[00:18:47] Bharatiya
[00:18:47] Janata
[00:18:48] Party
[00:18:48] in
[00:18:49] 2029.
[00:18:50] So
[00:18:50] that's
[00:18:51] as far
[00:18:51] as the
[00:18:52] Mahavika
[00:18:53] Zaghadi
[00:18:53] teammates
[00:18:54] are concerned.
[00:18:55] Congress
[00:18:57] I think
[00:18:58] should
[00:18:59] ask
[00:19:00] themselves
[00:19:00] a question
[00:19:01] and to
[00:19:02] some
[00:19:02] extent
[00:19:02] be
[00:19:03] embarrassed.
[00:19:04] They
[00:19:04] were
[00:19:05] fighting
[00:19:05] amongst
[00:19:05] them
[00:19:06] as to
[00:19:06] who
[00:19:06] would
[00:19:07] be
[00:19:07] the
[00:19:07] chief
[00:19:07] minister.
[00:19:08] They
[00:19:09] ended
[00:19:09] up
[00:19:09] getting
[00:19:10] 16
[00:19:10] seats
[00:19:11] in
[00:19:11] Maharashtra
[00:19:12] out of
[00:19:12] 288.
[00:19:14] Now
[00:19:15] Patule
[00:19:15] and others
[00:19:16] should watch
[00:19:17] their own
[00:19:17] videos
[00:19:18] where
[00:19:19] they
[00:19:19] were
[00:19:19] talking
[00:19:20] about
[00:19:20] who
[00:19:20] could
[00:19:21] be
[00:19:21] the
[00:19:21] next
[00:19:21] chief
[00:19:21] minister
[00:19:22] of
[00:19:22] Maharashtra
[00:19:23] when
[00:19:24] the
[00:19:24] ground
[00:19:25] reality
[00:19:25] was
[00:19:25] 16
[00:19:26] seats.
[00:19:35] would
[00:19:35] be
[00:19:36] taking up
[00:19:36] and
[00:19:40] Rahul
[00:19:41] Gandhi
[00:19:41] should
[00:19:42] have
[00:19:43] somebody
[00:19:44] who
[00:19:45] helps
[00:19:45] him
[00:19:45] with
[00:19:46] setting
[00:19:47] up
[00:19:47] his
[00:19:47] priorities.
[00:19:48] Which
[00:19:49] state
[00:19:50] requires
[00:19:50] how many
[00:19:51] rallies
[00:19:52] whether
[00:19:52] Vyanad
[00:19:53] is more
[00:19:54] important
[00:19:54] or the
[00:19:55] state of
[00:19:55] Maharashtra
[00:19:56] is more
[00:19:56] important at
[00:19:57] this stage
[00:19:57] is something
[00:19:58] that I am
[00:19:58] sure
[00:19:59] Rahul
[00:19:59] Gandhi
[00:20:00] should have
[00:20:00] thought of.
[00:20:02] Had
[00:20:03] those priorities
[00:20:03] been set
[00:20:04] right
[00:20:04] maybe
[00:20:05] chances
[00:20:06] are
[00:20:07] Maharashtra
[00:20:08] would have
[00:20:09] given a
[00:20:09] little more
[00:20:10] than what
[00:20:10] was
[00:20:11] seen
[00:20:12] in
[00:20:12] Maharashtra.
[00:20:13] That being
[00:20:14] said
[00:20:14] with
[00:20:15] all of
[00:20:16] this
[00:20:16] I am
[00:20:17] still
[00:20:17] shocked
[00:20:18] I am
[00:20:19] still
[00:20:19] surprised
[00:20:19] with
[00:20:20] the
[00:20:21] 132
[00:20:22] that
[00:20:22] Bharatiya
[00:20:23] Janata
[00:20:24] Party
[00:20:24] secured
[00:20:25] Maharashtra.
[00:20:26] Like
[00:20:27] I said
[00:20:27] this
[00:20:28] is possibly
[00:20:29] my last
[00:20:30] editorial
[00:20:30] on
[00:20:31] 2024
[00:20:32] Maharashtra
[00:20:33] elections.
[00:20:35] I think
[00:20:36] we close
[00:20:36] the chapter
[00:20:37] here
[00:20:39] and
[00:20:39] we talk
[00:20:40] about
[00:20:41] Maharashtra
[00:20:42] elections
[00:20:42] now
[00:20:43] in
[00:20:43] 2029
[00:20:45] but
[00:20:45] I will
[00:20:47] be in
[00:20:47] front of
[00:20:47] you
[00:20:47] tomorrow
[00:20:48] again
[00:20:49] at
[00:20:49] 10
[00:20:49] o'clock
[00:20:50] with
[00:20:50] another
[00:20:50] topic
[00:20:51] till I
[00:20:52] see you
[00:20:52] next
[00:20:52] time
[00:20:52] Namaskar
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