Editorial with Sujit Nair | Could Uddhav Thackeray Be The Next CM Of Maharashtra? | MVA | Mahayuti

[00:00:01] Namaskar, welcome to another episode of editorial. A very very interesting poll from CSDS which says Uddhav Thackeray is possibly the most popular chief minister in Maharashtra. Now let's talk about that. Let's get right into the show.

[00:00:21] Okay, so CSDS has released a very interesting poll study about who could possibly be the chief minister of Maharashtra. Very interesting poll study. But before I talk about polls and all that, let me be very honest with you.

[00:00:39] You see, lately most of the polls have gone wrong. You saw Haryana. Most of the polls, exit poll, opinion poll has gone wrong. You know, the reason to this is because people are making last minute decisions. People are taking last minute decisions. Point number one. Point number two, brand preference or in this case party preference or

[00:01:08] personal preference change very rapidly as we come closer to the elections. This change, this dynamism in preference, we didn't see before. We are seeing it now. So that's one thing if you actually study the trend, you will find that the dynamism or the change in preference is happening more often as it comes closer to the election.

[00:01:32] So what's happening is, so what's happening is that polls, research, not really actually concluding or not really showing the direction that it normally is supposed to show in various elections, stroke preferences and political data, etc.

[00:01:52] So they are not showing that. That's the point number one. That's the rider I want to put in front of you before I start this editorial.

[00:02:00] Now you will ask me, if you know it is not happening, it is not going to be true or it may not happen the way the pollsters have predicted it and why are you wasting our time?

[00:02:09] There is a difference. The reason I do this is because end of the day, you see, it's always good if you are interested in politics, if you are, if you want to keep yourself abreast of politics, if you want to be aware of what is going on, it is always good to know what the trends say.

[00:02:29] With a very clear understanding that the trends can change. With a very clear understanding that popularity ratings can change.

[00:02:36] But it is always good to know who is popular and what is popular and why he or she is popular, if he or she is.

[00:02:46] Another thing that is important is, what you can also understand is what are the core issues of the people, which is very important.

[00:02:54] You can understand the core issues of the people if you constantly go by what the researchers are saying.

[00:03:01] Because you can actually see the preferences change based on the priority of the needs and wants of people, which I think is very important for somebody who likes politics.

[00:03:14] So, this poll primarily is for somebody who follows politics, who researches on politics, who studies politics, who likes to talk, listen, speak about politics.

[00:03:25] This poll are meant for them. Don't take these polls as any gospel truth or something. It's not.

[00:03:31] Let's take these polls as one of the research that happened during the way to elections.

[00:03:36] Now, with all of this, let me start the polls.

[00:03:39] Now, the thing is, the preferred candidate for Chief Minister of Maharashtra, according to CSDS, is Mr. Uddhav Thakere with 28% people wanting him as the Chief Minister.

[00:03:52] The second is Ekanas Chintay with 20%.

[00:03:55] The third is Devendra Fatnavis with 16%.

[00:03:58] Sharad Pawar is mere 8%.

[00:04:00] Ajit Pawar 3%.

[00:04:01] Others 11%.

[00:04:04] So, the clear lead of the pack is Uddhav Thakere.

[00:04:10] Maharashtra, according to CSDS, wants to see Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister now.

[00:04:15] Now, the thing is, what I need to talk about is not Uddhav Thakere.

[00:04:20] What I need to talk about is Ekanas Chintay.

[00:04:22] You see, when Ekanas Chintay grabbed the Chief Ministerial position,

[00:04:27] I will say grab because he pulled down Uddhav Thakere, he broke Shiv Sena and he grabbed the Chief Ministerial position.

[00:04:35] People called him a short-term Chief Minister.

[00:04:37] People were very doubtful about his career, his future, everything.

[00:04:40] People were very doubtful.

[00:04:41] But all of a sudden, you see, Lok Sabha, he managed to get 7 seats.

[00:04:47] And today, you take this research as what's happening on ground, then he's number 2 and a very fairly close number 2.

[00:04:56] If Uddhav Thakere is 28, he's 20.

[00:04:59] A person who people thought would never have a future short-term Chief Minister and all of that.

[00:05:04] He has got a better chance of becoming a Chief Minister, according to the people,

[00:05:09] than possibly Devendra Farnavis,

[00:05:10] who actually helped him to become the Chief Minister in the first place.

[00:05:13] So, I think, Chintay has done a fantastic job out of the opportunity that he got.

[00:05:21] This is the point I wanted to make.

[00:05:22] The second point I wanted to make is, if you see the rural-urban divide,

[00:05:26] in rural, Ekanas Chintay, 23% wants to see Ekanas Chintay as Chief Minister.

[00:05:31] Only 13% wants Devendra Farnavis to be seen as the Chief Minister.

[00:05:35] And 28% wants to see Uddhav Thakere as Chief Minister.

[00:05:40] Rural also seems to be favouring Uddhav Thakere.

[00:05:44] Urban voters, 17% urban voters wants to see Ekanas Chintay as Chief Minister.

[00:05:48] 21% of voters wants to see Devendra Farnavis as Chief Minister.

[00:05:53] But again, 28%, which is Uddhav Thakere, seems to be leading in urban Maharashtra too.

[00:06:00] So, rural Uddhav Thakere, urban Uddhav Thakere.

[00:06:02] So, that's where he stands.

[00:06:05] Now, let's look at a very interesting phenomenon.

[00:06:07] Very interesting phenomenon.

[00:06:08] Let's look at the caste and religious groups.

[00:06:11] How they go.

[00:06:12] Important in our country.

[00:06:14] In our country, caste and religion seems to be very important.

[00:06:17] So, let's go with that.

[00:06:19] Marathas, technically Marathas, see the figures that I'm going to give you,

[00:06:23] the caste breakup figures that I'm going to give you are approximate.

[00:06:25] So, please take it that way.

[00:06:27] Marathas, constituted of 26.6% of Maharashtra population.

[00:06:32] Marathas, 27% wants to see Ekanas Chintay as Chief Minister.

[00:06:36] 15% Devendra Farnavis, 20% Uddhav Thakere.

[00:06:40] The other upper castes wants to see 40%.

[00:06:44] Devendra Farnavis gets 40% in the other upper caste.

[00:06:47] 20% Ekanas Chintay, 15% Uddhav Thakere.

[00:06:51] Kunbi, 34% wants to see Ekanas Chintay as the Chief Minister.

[00:06:56] He leads 9% Devendra Farnavis and 30% Uddhav Thakere.

[00:07:01] Other OBCs prefer Ekanas Chintay, 32% Ekanas Chintay, 20% Devendra Farnavis, 25% Uddhav Thakere.

[00:07:10] Schedule caste prefers Uddhav Thakere.

[00:07:13] 30% Schedule caste prefers Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister.

[00:07:18] And Schedule caste is around 9.37% of the Maharashtra population.

[00:07:24] And the other OBC that I spoke to you about is 32.8% of Maharashtra population.

[00:07:32] So, Schedule caste wants to see Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister with 30%.

[00:07:38] Schedule tribe again wants to see Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister with 31%.

[00:07:43] Then Muslims, Muslims, 52% of Muslims in Maharashtra wants to see Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister.

[00:07:51] 7% Ekanas Chintay and 1% Devendra Farnavis.

[00:07:54] In fact, Muslims are around 5.8% of Maharashtra population.

[00:08:00] Buddhist 25% like to see Uddhav Thakere.

[00:08:04] 7% Ekanas Chintay and 10% Mr. Devendra Farnavis.

[00:08:08] So, this is where as far as the castes are concerned.

[00:08:11] So, the biggest chunk that is the OBC, 32.8% would like to see Ekanas Chintay as their Chief Minister with 32%.

[00:08:22] And Marathas, again the second largest chunk would like to see Ekanas Chintay as their Chief Minister that is 27%.

[00:08:30] But as far as Muslims go, as far as schedule caste goes, as far as schedule tribe goes, all of them are hooting for Uddhav Thakere as their Chief Minister.

[00:08:40] This is how this particular slide looks.

[00:08:43] Now, let's go to the fourth slide which is Mahavikas Agadi leads over Mahayuti.

[00:08:48] Amongst Muslim, Mahavikas Agadi like I told you, 48% leads over Mahayuti.

[00:08:53] Amongst Neo-Buddhist 44%, amongst Adivasis 30%, amongst poor class 11%, Mahavikas Agadi leads over Mahayuti.

[00:09:04] And amongst lower classes 5%, Vikas Agadi leads over Mahayuti.

[00:09:08] The middle class voters are more or less equally divided.

[00:09:11] Amongst farmers, Mahavikas Agadi is ahead by 11%.

[00:09:15] So, primarily, this is how Mahavikas Agadi looks at the moment.

[00:09:21] Mahayuti leads over Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:09:24] 45% of upper caste, like I mentioned before, Mahayuti leads over Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:09:31] 18% of Marathas, Mahayuti leads over Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:09:35] Mahayuti, mind you, is BJP, the Shiva Sena and the NCP.

[00:09:38] That is Ajit Pawar and Eknashinde, Eknashinde is Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar NCP.

[00:09:45] And, of course, Mahavikas Agadi is UBT, that is Uddho Bala Saheb Thakarish Shiv Sena,

[00:09:52] Sharaj Chandra Pawar NCP and the Congress.

[00:09:54] So, that's for people who would want to know this.

[00:09:58] Amongst OBC, 16% lead by Mahayuti.

[00:10:03] Amongst Dalit, 7%, Mahayuti is ahead of Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:10:07] And among upper class, rich voters, Mahayuti is ahead of Mahavikas Agadi by 17%.

[00:10:12] So, this is where as far as the Mahayuti ahead of Agadi stands as far as classes are concerned.

[00:10:19] Now, let's look at how Mahavikas Agadi fares on key governance matter.

[00:10:24] For instance, overall development of the state, Mahavikas Agadi Alliance got 45% versus Mahayuti Alliance gets only 41%.

[00:10:32] So, Mahavikas Agadi is seen as a better government.

[00:10:35] Social harmony amongst community, Mahavikas Agadi gets 41% and Mahayuti gets 37%.

[00:10:42] It's not very surprising.

[00:10:43] It's one expected this.

[00:10:46] And providing a stable government, Mahavikas Agadi gets more.

[00:10:51] Almost the same but Mahavikas Agadi is 1% more.

[00:10:54] It is 40% and Mahayuti is 39%.

[00:10:57] This is how Mahavikas Agadi ranks amongst key governance matters.

[00:11:02] And Eknar Sinday led Mahayuti Alliance gets positive rating for Bijli Sarak Pani is what they say.

[00:11:08] What they mean by that is condition of schools, colleges.

[00:11:11] Mahavikas Agadi gets 35%.

[00:11:13] Mahayuti gets 32%.

[00:11:15] Remains the same is 24%.

[00:11:17] Condition of government hospitals.

[00:11:19] Mahavikas Agadi gets 33%.

[00:11:21] Mahayuti gets 35% and remains the same is 25%.

[00:11:25] Condition of farmers very important.

[00:11:28] Mahavikas Agadi gets 31%.

[00:11:30] Mahayuti gets 23% and remains the same is 30%.

[00:11:35] Now let's come to the Bijli Sarak Pani that we spoke about where Mahayuti has clearly dominated over Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:11:43] 37% people feels that Mahayuti has given better supply of electricity versus 27% for Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:11:50] And 32% feels more or less everything is the same.

[00:11:55] For drinking water 34% Mahayuti Alliance.

[00:11:58] 26% Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:12:01] And 35% feels it's the same.

[00:12:03] Condition of roads.

[00:12:05] Condition of roads.

[00:12:06] 43% people feel that Mahayuti has done better than Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:12:12] 43% Mahavikas Agadi is at 24% and 28% people feel that everything is the same.

[00:12:19] Which means Maharashtra believes that Mahayuti has done better for roads for sure in Maharashtra than Mahavikas Agadi.

[00:12:27] That's where it stands.

[00:12:28] Now let's talk about the most important thing.

[00:12:30] Let's talk about the issues that is really shaping the choice of whether you are going to vote for Mahavikas Agadi or you are going to vote for Mahayuti.

[00:12:41] This is interesting.

[00:12:42] You see 58% are voting for Mahavikas Agadi for unemployment.

[00:12:48] They believe that Mahavikas Agadi can ensure that they can generate more employment.

[00:12:52] So that is 58%.

[00:12:53] 31% votes for Mahayuti.

[00:12:55] 45% are voting for Mahavikas Agadi because they believe that they can control inflation.

[00:13:02] 45%.

[00:13:02] 44% are voting for Mahavikas Agadi and 45% are voting for Mahayuti because they believe Mahayuti can get better development in Maharashtra.

[00:13:14] 1%.

[00:13:14] But they believe that Mahayuti can get better development for Maharashtra.

[00:13:18] 56% are voting for Mahayuti for women's safety.

[00:13:23] 56% and only 24% are voting for Mahavikas Agadi on women's safety.

[00:13:28] Issue of reservation.

[00:13:30] Of course, Mahavikas Agadi rules the roost with 46%.

[00:13:34] They believe that Mahavikas Agadi can get the reservation that they want and 26% are voting for Mahayuti.

[00:13:41] The reservation is very clearly talking about Maratha reservation.

[00:13:44] And the fact that a lot of Maratha reservation leaders believe that Mahayuti is a better choice is why this 46% and 26%.

[00:13:53] As far as poverty is concerned, again, Mahayuti people believe better to tackle poverty in Maharashtra.

[00:14:01] And they have given them 48% of people feel that Mahayuti is better.

[00:14:07] 45% people feel that Mahavikas Agadi is better to tackle poverty.

[00:14:13] And as far as corruption is concerned, as far as corruption is concerned, 21% people feels that Mahavikas Agadi is a corrupt group.

[00:14:22] Whereas 58% feels that Mahayuti is a non-corrupt group.

[00:14:29] So, these are the issues that are actually shaping the choices.

[00:14:34] So, somewhere down the line, a lot of confused reaction.

[00:14:40] A lot of confused reaction.

[00:14:41] At some level, as a government, Mahavikas Agadi is seen as better on a lot of parameters.

[00:14:47] But when it comes to core parameters, it is Mahayuti that is seen better.

[00:14:51] When it comes to issues shaping choices, issues shaping choices, they say when it comes to corruption, when it comes to poverty, when it comes to development, when it comes to women issue, they are rating Mahayuti better.

[00:15:07] So, a lot of confusion right now.

[00:15:09] And this confusion is what the dynamism that I was talking to you about.

[00:15:13] This confusion is what the change in preferences that I am talking to you about.

[00:15:17] This confusion is what causes the last minute decision changes that I am talking to you about.

[00:15:22] So, the research does not show a clear direction.

[00:15:25] The research does not show a clear direction.

[00:15:27] And the logic also is not very clearly defined in this particular research.

[00:15:33] Possibly, it is because that is how people are reacting.

[00:15:36] That is how people are reacting.

[00:15:38] This could be the actual mood of the people.

[00:15:40] So, therefore, this particular election is going to be very, very interesting.

[00:15:43] Nobody can bet on anything on this particular election.

[00:15:47] There was a point in time where even Bharatiya Janata party leaders have sat in my studio and told me that,

[00:15:53] listen, you know what, while Lok Sabha election, you know, we will make our mark.

[00:15:59] But here, assembly elections, we are doubtful.

[00:16:01] Bharatiya Janata party leaders have told me this.

[00:16:04] But let me tell you, now it is anybody's match.

[00:16:09] Eknash Shinde, like I told you, gets a lot of kudos because he has come from nowhere, right?

[00:16:15] He was the dark horse.

[00:16:17] He came from nowhere, really took over, doing a fantastic job and did a fantastic job.

[00:16:23] Got his brand established, got himself established and he is leading the roost as far as Mahayuti is concerned,

[00:16:33] which nobody expected because there was a Devendra Fatnavis.

[00:16:36] Everybody expected Devendra Fatnavis to be back or at least Bharatiya Janata party to lead the show.

[00:16:42] But somewhere down the line here, the way it looks, the way it looks, it's clearly Eknash Shinde leading the show.

[00:16:48] So that's one more thing which I would like to tell you.

[00:16:53] That's how it's looking.

[00:16:54] Like I said, even now a little edge for Mahavika Zakadi, but Mahayuti is catching up very, very fast.

[00:17:04] He's catching up and kind of moving ahead very fast.

[00:17:09] So one doesn't know what happens in the next 10 days.

[00:17:12] We will keep you abreast.

[00:17:14] Of course, your team is on ground.

[00:17:15] Thanks to your contribution, your team is on ground.

[00:17:18] We will now start having a daily understanding of what's happening on ground in Maharashtra,

[00:17:26] both urban Maharashtra and rural Maharashtra.

[00:17:28] We will start doing those programs.

[00:17:31] So that's what it is.

[00:17:33] And as far as BJP is concerned, their first list has been announced.

[00:17:38] 99 candidates has been announced.

[00:17:40] Most of the candidates were winning candidates of last time.

[00:17:42] So they're not taking much risk.

[00:17:44] A lot of candidates, unlike what they say, one family, one ticket and all that.

[00:17:48] A lot of family members have been given tickets.

[00:17:51] So that too.

[00:17:52] But all that is something that now Bharatiya Janata party is not going to take it too seriously.

[00:17:58] They are going to try their best to win.

[00:18:00] They have two objectives in front of them.

[00:18:04] A to win maximum number of seats.

[00:18:05] B to be seen better than Eknash Inde, their own teammate.

[00:18:09] That too.

[00:18:10] Because now Eknash Inde is the star.

[00:18:12] So that is what I wanted to tell you today.

[00:18:16] And till I see you next time.

[00:18:17] That's tomorrow at 10 p.m.

[00:18:19] Namaskar.