India’s relationship with the Maldives has had several twists and turns. The latest diplomatic impasse, in the backdrop of China’s rising influence in the archipelago, could have a significant impact on India’s trade and maritime security.
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[00:00:00] Hello and welcome to All Indians Matter, I am Ashraf Engineer.
[00:00:08] The diplomatic rau between India and the Maldives seems to have calmed at least for the moment
[00:00:12] with behind the scenes dialogue replacing the public acrimony.
[00:00:16] This does not mean of course that the government of President Mohammad Muizu has stepped back
[00:00:21] on his demand to have Indian troops off Moldivian soil or that China
[00:00:25] has stopped pressuring the Indian Ocean archipelago to keep India at arm's length.
[00:00:30] We haven't seen the end of this geopolitical tug and pull and we won't for a while to
[00:00:34] come.
[00:00:35] But let's try to answer a fundamental question.
[00:00:37] Why is this tiny collection of islands so important to India.
[00:00:51] It all began on January 4th this year on social media. Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited
[00:00:56] Lakshadriyap and posted pictures from there. In response, many asked why anyone should
[00:01:01] go to the Maldives when there was such an island paradise in India.
[00:01:05] The context to this was that the new Maldivian government headed by Muizu is pro-China.
[00:01:09] In fact, Muizu and former President Abdullah I amin had led the recent India out campaign.
[00:01:15] One thing led to another and some Maldivian ministers and MPs used derogatory language
[00:01:19] against Modi that turned into a diplomatic issue.
[00:01:23] With the election won, Muizu can't afford to be as tried in Kliandi India as he was
[00:01:28] during the campaign.
[00:01:29] He now has to maintain a delicate balance keeping in mind strategic relations with both
[00:01:34] India and China.
[00:01:35] So, three of the ministers who posted the derogatory comments against Modi were suspended even
[00:01:40] as calls to boycott the Maldives grew louder in India.
[00:01:44] Many vacation seekers cancel
[00:01:45] their reservations and some travel portals stop offering bookings for flights to the Maldives.
[00:01:50] The diplomatic row is unfortunate because India and the Maldives have had a long geopolitical
[00:01:55] relationship that is important to both. India was one of the first to recognize the Maldives
[00:02:00] as independence and establish diplomatic relations. These ties have been good but have been buffeted by the distinct Maldivian slant towards China in recent years.
[00:02:09] The Maldives' location is the key. It is close to the luxury violence, a vital spot along
[00:02:14] major sea lanes. This means that the Maldives' vital for India's maritime security. To this
[00:02:20] end, India has built a coastal radar chain that integrated into its own radar system, thus enhancing surveillance capabilities in the area.
[00:02:28] Maldives incidentally is this small-station country with a landmass of just 300 square
[00:02:32] kilometers and a population of less than 500,000.
[00:02:35] However, it is one of the most geographically dispersed countries.
[00:02:39] Its islands are scattered along a 960-kilometer long submarine ridge running north to south and forming a
[00:02:45] wall in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
[00:02:48] At the southern and northern parts of this wall are the only two lanes through which
[00:02:52] ships can pass.
[00:02:53] Both are vital for maritime trade flow between the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Hormuz in
[00:02:57] West Asia and the Strait of Malacca in South East Asia.
[00:03:01] What this means is that if the Indian Ocean is a key highway for global trade and energy
[00:03:05] flow, the Maldives is the access road.
[00:03:08] As maritime activity has risen, so has the geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean.
[00:03:13] China, looking out for its own strategic interests, is increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean
[00:03:17] and its engagement with the Maldives grows during Yameen's presidency.
[00:03:21] Beijing took up major infrastructure projects including including the upgrading of Mali's international airport and the construction of a bridge linking
[00:03:28] Mali to Hul-Hul-Malay. It was in 2013 when India suffered the first setback that was
[00:03:34] when Yameen came to power. This was also when China was laying the groundwork for the Belt
[00:03:38] and Road Initiative, or BRI, a global infrastructure development strategy to invest in more than
[00:03:44] 150 countries.
[00:03:45] This is a form of diplomacy aimed at establishing and projecting China's power across the
[00:03:50] region.
[00:03:51] China went on to build several infrastructure projects in the Maldives.
[00:03:55] Soon, the China Maldives free trade agreement was signed and Malay became part of the BRI.
[00:04:00] By 2018 Beijing had upgraded Malay airport and built the bridge I mentioned earlier,
[00:04:05] Wirin Malay and Holohum Malay Island.
[00:04:07] These investments form what are called debt trap diplomacy.
[00:04:11] By 2018 Chinese loans met Malay was dealing with a debt of $1.5 billion astronomical for
[00:04:17] a nation with a GDP of less than $9 billion.
[00:04:21] Naturally, Malay is now vulnerable to demands that it put China's interest first.
[00:04:25] But there was a twist in the tail. Maubant Ibrahim Soli won the presidency in 2018 and
[00:04:31] there was a shift back towards India. His India first policy led to new Delhi supporting
[00:04:35] community development projects and infrastructure development. Among the initiatives planned,
[00:04:39] who were a cancer hospital and a cricket stadium. This was in keeping with India's long-standing relationship with the Maldives that has encompassed defence and economic and
[00:04:48] humanitarian projects. India has also been the first responder in times of crisis such as during
[00:04:53] the 1988 coup attempt in the 2014 water crisis in Malay. Soli pulled out of the trade deal with
[00:04:59] Beijing and India authorized $1.4 billion to help him payback loans. New Delhi also tried
[00:05:05] vaccine diplomacy by sending 100,000 doses of the Covishield vaccine to Mali when the
[00:05:10] COVID-19 pandemic struck. In all, it sent 3 million shots to six neighbors of which
[00:05:15] two Bhutan and Nepal were China's neighbors too. But now, Muizu is in power. He has held
[00:05:21] the view that the presence of Indian soldiers undermines Maldives in sovereignty
[00:05:25] and he wants them out, a view no doubt influenced by China.
[00:05:29] How things will play out over the long term remains to be seen but India cannot take its
[00:05:33] ties with the Maldives so granted or ignore China's moves in the Indian Ocean.
[00:05:38] The Maldives too has a lot to lose.
[00:05:40] Roughly 90% of its economy rise on tourism and Indians account for 11% of its tourists.
[00:05:46] If they continue to boycott the Maldives, it will impact the Maldives economy.
[00:05:50] This is not a situation a debt laden nation can afford.
[00:05:54] Meanwhile the Maldives is rapidly turning into the center of the latest standoff between
[00:05:59] India and China as this rivalry intensifies so will the significance of the Maldives. engineer, thus ASH RAF, ENGINW and all Indians count, that's a double L, INDIANSCOINT.
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[00:06:32] Indians Matter, email me at editor at allindiansmatter.in.
[00:06:36] Catch you again soon.