Episode 394: Oscar Predictions 2024! Who Will Win in Every Category. With Erik Anderson & Ryan McQuade (AwardsWatch)

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[00:00:39] Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com slash income, all lowercase. Go to Shopify.com slash income to grow your business no matter what stage you're in. This is Pop Culture Confidential and I'm Christina Jirling-Biro. It's time!

[00:01:16] After what seems like a never-ending award season, the Oscars are finally upon us. This Sunday to be exact. And that means it's high time for predictions. It's always lovely to be joined by the best in the biz from Awards Watch editor-in-chief Eric Anderson and executive editor Ryan McQuade.

[00:01:35] Hi guys, I've missed you. Hello Christina. Hello, hello. I know Eric is it true that you're going to be there? I will be there yes. Just in the press interview room so we'll see how that goes which means I probably cannot

[00:01:53] be drinking champagne the whole night but we'll see. I don't know. Maybe you can have a little flask or something. Oh, there we go. Like that. Like right on the hip, you know. You're going to be at South by and first in line for Meghan Markle's keynote.

[00:02:14] Oh yeah, that's totally me. I'm covering the keynote for Meghan Markle. I don't care about any of that. Not that I don't care about Meghan Markle, I don't care about Gakina. I'm there for the movies. I'm just saying I'm jealous not of Meghan Markle but the movies.

[00:02:32] But yeah, I'll actually be watching it with some family and a lot of our contributors have Awards Watch like Dan Baer and our TV editor Tyler Doster so we're kind of just going to have us all together and watch it and it's going to be an hour earlier

[00:02:49] which is great. I think does not mean it needs to be a four hour show. Just have it run an hour earlier. They're going to need a four hour show to do the nominations presentation for acting. Appliances an hour early.

[00:03:06] The listeners about that, that seems like it will take a long time though very lovely. Well, I mean it does depend on how they do it but they are returning to the format that they did in 2008-2009. Right? Yeah, it was 2009 ceremony, 2008 films where they bring out previous

[00:03:28] winners from a category to introduce each of the nominees say something about them and then reveal the winner. And sometimes there is a connective tissue relationship either through a friendship that person has with the nominee or director that they've worked with or sometimes no connection whatsoever.

[00:03:52] It's very, very up in the air, very random so that's what's happening this year with 20 returning winners and they did throw a couple of like extras in there to throw us off a little bit because Al Pacino and Lupitian Yungo are on the list of presenters

[00:04:14] but I think most people think that they are doing something different or separate. I think Pacino is presenting this picture with Michelle Piper. It's the 40th anniversary of Scarface. Not that that's like a big Oscar movie but it's a relationship and they were

[00:04:33] announced in together in the same group so it feels like it's probably. Well, I love this. I mean, for me it can be a five hour Oscar to see this. I've been this is the kind of stuff we've been asking for for years.

[00:04:51] This sort of attention to detail of celebrating the Oscars and celebrating movies. I thought it was when it was announced, I was like, yes, because this this also kind of made you think that the people had to watch the films

[00:05:06] to and study of performance or at least, you know, gives to sync ideas to it. There were also just great moments when it happened and the idea of seeing five previous winners come out on that stage.

[00:05:22] Some of them legends, some of them not and present to the new winners was really great. And I mean, also too, I mean, while Charlize Theron is considered to potentially be one of them, there's also Anya Taylor Joy.

[00:05:40] So they might just do a Furiosa meet up as well. I'm actually hoping for some surprises, not, you know, not like anything, a ton of surprises up there. But there was something great about seeing, you know, Sophia Loren or there was

[00:05:56] like seeing Joel Gray or seeing some of these, you know, out of the box picks when they did do it, you know, 15 years ago or whatever it was. So so I'm hoping that is still in play on Oscar night rather than we just,

[00:06:11] you know, put all the puzzle pieces together when we announced it. But it's a great idea. They should do more of this. They should honestly probably do it again at the hundredth, but have every winner that's able for that category to come up there.

[00:06:25] That would be kind of cool, obviously with the group photo. But but yeah, it's a good way to celebrate this excellent crop of movies. Excellent. I also, I mean, I love it. It's not a sustainable format that they could do, but there's something like hilariously like.

[00:06:45] Cult like or like, like by having these people in this half circle who are, you know, inducting and indoctrinating a new member of their group. It's really all quite funny. I always find I also find it really funny the people they select.

[00:07:05] And then you realize, oh, there's people they didn't select and they don't think that they're either cash aid enough or maybe it's not a good popular win like I don't see if I can Jared Leto and Rami Malek showing up anywhere here.

[00:07:17] All right. Like, you know, like there's some like, you know, not great winners aren't among these. Well, and unlike this problem and Joel Gray, the selection is relatively new. Jessica modern is really the only older one and she's still eighties.

[00:07:39] Yeah. Yeah, it's kind of like a Netflix queue. Nothing from the seventies. Wow. Up on that stage. What? I mean, like, tell me I'm wrong. That's the audience and the curating of films now. It's like the only reason probably Jessica

[00:07:55] is still a million up there is because everyone watches American horror story. So they got good frame of reference there. But yeah, you're right. She even agreed. Oh, I mean, she's got to start her campaign for next year. What are you talking about?

[00:08:07] She's she's she's coming for that third Oscar. And if you think that she's not coming for that long day's journey into next year, Eric doesn't think that. So if you are a Jessica Lang fan and you want to see someone not predict her

[00:08:21] at awards underscore watch on Twitter, go into his DMs. He loves stuff like that. Wow. Great. Another season of that. Well, speaking about a long journey, it seems like I've spent this Oscar season with you guys, which has been great at festivals and telluride and talking.

[00:08:41] And we're going to go through all these twenty three categories and talk about these Oscars, the predictions that we have coming up. But first, I want to ask you after this long season, who are you looking forward to seeing on the red carpet

[00:08:54] and who's been the best during all these precursors? There's only one answer to that. And it's Coleman Domingo. I was just going to say it's Coleman Domingo, like that. I mean, if they did invite Charles Milton, I would agree with that.

[00:09:08] Or Gretta Lee, who has been phenomenal on the red carpets as well. And then put them in a wrong calm together, please. But yeah, Coleman Domingo has fucking killed it at every single look, like he will be actually at South by Southwest Friday night.

[00:09:24] And then he will be flying to the Oscars on Sunday. So he is one of the busiest men now in Hollywood, it seems like. And prepping his two films, including, you know, the Michael Jackson one that he's just got so much.

[00:09:41] He is going to be around for a long, long time and rightfully so because he's fantastic, fantastic actor and an even better human being. And so but yeah, I mean, I would I'm I mean, Lily Gladstone's actually looked really fantastic on red carpet looks.

[00:10:00] And I just can't wait to see what kind of different shade of all black that Killian Murphy wears because he's been pretty standard when it comes to that. But it will be interesting to see like, I guess who?

[00:10:13] I mean, no one's going to pull like a Kristen Stewart at the Love Lies Bleeding red carpet where they just fucking dominate. All right, I mean, talk about a lot of that. It's incredible. Incredible. I lost my mind. Me too.

[00:10:29] Obviously, I think Dave and Joey Randolph is going to absolutely kill it because her stylist is a plus. She knows how to what colors work for her. Her draping is flawless. No, but it's just flawless. I can't wait. Yeah. What about speeches? Who's had the best speeches?

[00:10:51] I know. Ryan, you've had some things to say about Dave. I'm not the only one she's I'm not the only one. Eric started all this and now everybody's getting thrown at me. OK, sorry. I mean, ditch the paper. It's it's it's it's time.

[00:11:08] It's time you're going to win an Oscar. Ditch the paper. Get up there and speak from the heart. This goes for Robert Annie, Junior. This goes for I mean, the reason why Lily Gladstone's speeches have been so great

[00:11:20] and why I think another reason why when we talk about that category, why we want her to win is her speeches have come genuinely from the heart and have meant something and you feel the emotion of that win and what it means.

[00:11:38] Honestly, I think Cori Jefferson's done a fantastic job all season long with his speeches. So if when we talk about that, that could be somebody potentially as well seen with Justin Terrier for an amulet fall, Christopher Nolan's done a fantastic job too.

[00:11:51] But I'm really more interested in seeing the craft winners and their speeches, people that we haven't got to see a lot like like Hoidze van Hoidema, Hoidze Van Gorgensen for Oppenheimer, Jennifer Lame. I would love to see the I mean, obviously the production design.

[00:12:08] Whoever wins that, I think there's going to be some great little speeches there. And then the shorts are always the more interesting speeches too, because depending on whatever short wins, it's got a message behind it. If it's the, you know, John Lennon and Yoko Ono one,

[00:12:26] that's a good time to go to the bathroom. Because that's where that short belongs in the bathroom. But yeah, that's I mean, it's kind of a general rundown, I guess, right? Eric, have there been any speeches during these award shows that you think may have even swayed

[00:12:44] that have been so good that could have swayed the voting? I know we talk about this a lot every year that when somebody wins a televised award, it is a great opportunity for them to really speak directly to voters in a way that. Yeah, that ingratiates them.

[00:13:04] And sometimes, you know, you can just be a an absolute front runner like Dave Wynne, Joy Randolph and speeches don't really matter that much. And then other times, yeah, you want to hear this person talk again. You want to hear Lily Gladstone give context to

[00:13:27] what it means to be on that stage. So, yeah, I think it can. I'm not sure this year has seen many speeches that would be that inspiring to really sway somebody. Maybe Gladstone. I think she's probably the closest. And that's really because the other categories are

[00:13:54] the front runner status is so far out in front that they regardless of nobody, nobody outside of of Nolan is going to win. No matter how great their speech is, nobody outside of Downey and Randolph are going to win no matter how great their speeches are.

[00:14:12] Paul G. Amati's have been wonderful and funny. But you know, we'll see how that works out for him. Let's discuss this now. Let's get into the predictions. I'm going to shake things up for you because I know you guys have been doing

[00:14:29] predictions everywhere, so I've done the order of the presentation of last year's telecast so that we don't go in exactly the same order that's on Wikipedia or somewhere else. So that's how we're going here. And that means we're starting with animated feature film.

[00:14:48] Films are the boy in the heron, elemental, Nimona, robot dreams, Spider-Man across the spiderverse who wants to jump in, Eric. Sure, I love this lineup. First of all, the level of queer characters and subject matter in this lineup is really, really exciting. Actually just watched Nimona last week.

[00:15:15] It's good. Oh my God. I love it so much. I loved it too. Come on, boys kissing. Let's go. I know a lot of us think that this is a very close race. And I do think that it's close-ish, but I'm definitely leaning Spider-Man. That was my prediction.

[00:15:41] I think the BAFTA and Globe wins for the boy in the heron are wonderful. They're really, really great wins and they speak to a more international appeal than Spider-Man. But I just feel like it's going to lean to Spider-Man. It's going to be interesting.

[00:16:05] It'll be the first film direct sequel to win after its first film won in this category. And I don't know. I think I mentioned this before the rumor that the boy in the heron was going to be Miyazaki's last film,

[00:16:25] I think would have been a pretty strong narrative. But then it was revealed at TIFF that it's not going to be. So that kind of eliminated that. He's like, I'm not going anywhere. Yeah. I'm going to make movies until I die. But I think it's still possible.

[00:16:43] I think it would be an exciting and wonderful win if it did. I'm so conflicted about this. I feel like Spider-Man. I mean, there's another one coming. It's a sequel. It's the middle movie. Yeah. It's the middle movie Miyazaki as you were saying, 83. This movie.

[00:17:03] But the only thing is that this movie did split many. I mean, there was quite a divisive in terms of this wasn't as accessible as many of Miyazaki's other films. That may be. But I'm really conflicted, but I'm going with Spider-Man

[00:17:20] across the spider versus Justin on the basis of its previous wins. Yeah. I mean, I love the boy in the hair and it was in my top 10 in the year. I think it's a truly transcended piece of art from one of our great filmmakers ever.

[00:17:39] And yeah, I understand that it's not accessible for everyone. I honestly, I don't care about that and my personal takes on it. Like, like if you're not watching his movies by now, maybe you don't love cinema.

[00:17:52] But but I think across the spider verse is a phenomenal piece of animation and also storytelling and for a middle film. You know, there's a lot of hyperbole out there in the world right now about like a certain sandworm movie that is like getting this empire

[00:18:14] strikebacks comparison, honestly, across the spider versus more of an empire strikes back than anything else. And because that is a contained movie that then has a third part coming that we all know will wrap up everything else as well, too.

[00:18:29] And yeah, it's it's phenomenal and it would be a great winner. And it's and it's better than the first one, too. In my opinion, I really would love Miyazaki to have another one because I'm I'm most the opinion.

[00:18:44] I mean, Christina, you haven't even know it's he's 83 years old. Not many more times probably that will be able to get rewarded will be able to give him his flowers, not that he'll be there. But yeah. And yeah, well, I mean, during number seven or whatever

[00:19:03] the hell was coming out and I, you know, Eric can't wait for that one. But I but yeah, I think I'm going to go spider man just to be safe pulling a little head over my heart there.

[00:19:14] But I do I do think it's I think it could go close. I mean, that international vote does sway in certain places and not in other places. It's interesting where like, you know, you look at last year at the Oscars, all quiet's wins really were from that

[00:19:32] international component. And but it didn't matter above the line because, you know, everything ever all at once was so beloved by everybody else. So and maybe some of that contingent as well from the international voters too. So it's it's interesting to see where that strength

[00:19:49] from the 25 percent that live outside of the United States, the voting body where they place their love in certain categories. But I think it across the board will be spider verse. OK, so all three of us are on spider verse tentatively. So actor in supporting role, Sterling K.

[00:20:08] Brown for American fiction, Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon, Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling Barbie, Mark Ruffalo, four things. This seems pretty taken, right, Eric? Yeah, this is I mean, this is one of the Sterling K. Brown. The two acting sweeps.

[00:20:32] There is no question here. There's no room for a surprise at all. It's Robert Downey Jr. And that's the end of that. Yeah, it's been downy junior the whole time. And I knew this was going to be his win for a long time and just made sense.

[00:20:53] He's been in this industry for years and years. And he's very beloved. He's I mean, he's grown up literally. He was a baby in one of his dad's films. He's one of the biggest superstars on the planet.

[00:21:05] He does a performance that is completely different than what we've seen him being an Iron Man who's lost 10 years. It's different than not different than something like Zodiac or some of his earlier work in his career. But it's definitely a reminder that he can be a serious actor

[00:21:22] when he's not surrounded by a green screen. And and I think I think he's going to give an emotional speech. I think he's going to probably mention his dad. Yeah, he's been saving that. He hasn't really talked about it.

[00:21:36] I think I think I think it'll be like when Jamie Lee Curtis mentioned her parents last year or when Joaquin Phoenix mentioned River Phoenix in his speech. I think it'll be somewhat of a very reflective moment

[00:21:49] or when Brad Pitt mentioned his parents or or Ridley and Gina Davis. Like these I think it'll be a very I think it'll be very early in the telecast. And I think it will be very emotional moment for him.

[00:21:59] And he wouldn't be the person I give this award to out of these nominees. I give it to Robert De Niro because I think he's phenomenal and killers of the flower moon. But I do not think Downing is a bad winner.

[00:22:11] And I don't think anything anything that Oppenheimer wins. I do not think it's bad. I think people are at that point of the year where they want to start turning on it because it's the favorite.

[00:22:21] If this is if this is considered boring, you should go look at the wins that Coda won for. You always want that one in there. Don't you just got just going to point that out. Yeah, just just on the record.

[00:22:33] All right, moving on to actress in supporting role Emily Blunt Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks, the color purple America, Ferrara Barbie, Jody Foster, Nia and Devine Joy Randolph in the holdovers also completely locked in here with that Emily Blunt coming in last second. Eric's going to have to predict her.

[00:22:57] I just wanted another chance for Eric to talk about Emily Blunt. And that would actually be an upset that would be so funny. I wouldn't even mind it. I mean, obviously I hate it. I think the worst nomination of all 20. But it would be funny.

[00:23:14] I don't think she's the worst of all 20. But yeah, she's definitely in the lower. She's in the lower tier. Who's who's worse? Probably Annette Benning or Daniel Brooks or America Ferrara. Well, that movie is worse, but their performances are.

[00:23:30] Oh, no, I don't I don't I don't like those those performances. But I think I don't I don't think Blunt's bad. I just think that she's not intentionally not given enough, but she does the best of what she can. Yeah, it's it's Randolph. It's OK.

[00:23:47] We got to we got to say this on a show. Just put it out there so we know maybe the five that are going to go out there and present this Oscars for the love of God. If the Academy gives Octavia Spencer

[00:24:03] the opportunity to present a divine divine joy Randolph, Dave I enjoy Randolph. It just it's so lazy. It's it's very uninspired. It's also someone playing a maid handing it to someone playing a lunch lady. It's very stereotypical of these wins. Please do not do that.

[00:24:25] Please change it up. Please the optics of it just do not look good. And Eric and I have talked about it. That being said, ditch the paper. Go out there. Be funny. Be the charismatic actress that we know she is.

[00:24:39] She's a hoot when she's, you know, been on the circuit. And not doing sort of staged, you know, like written chat, GBT speeches. Like just let her go out there and enjoy her Oscar moment. It is her moment to shine.

[00:24:56] And I hope she does for for a very good performance, in my opinion. Yeah. Eric and these two supporting actors, can any upsets at all? You see no, no, no. She's like a great she's like one of the most rewarded

[00:25:15] actresses ever in the history of award season period. It's it is we might not see something like this. It was the Gotham. I mean, that was it. And like one critics group where she tied with McAdams, where she didn't solely win it. But yeah, but still won.

[00:25:33] She didn't lose. No, she didn't lose. No, you're right. It's it's really it's almost unprecedented. Quite I mean, this this beats Helen Mirren's run for the Queen or even key. Quann, it's oh, yeah. Quann missed a lot at the beginning. Now he must.

[00:25:53] Well, he also missed BAFTA, too. Yeah. So this I mean, this is yeah, it's a unprecedented. It's it's a bigger it's a bigger sweep than Downey even. All right. Documentary feature film. Twenty days in Mariopoul, Bobby Wine, the people's president,

[00:26:09] the eternal memory for daughters and to kill a tiger. Ryan, do you have a? Yeah, I think it's going to be 20 days in Mariopoul. I think it's all you talk about speeches. That could be a very emotional speech.

[00:26:26] It could be a moment in the telecast that's pretty profound. And I mean, maybe Bobby Wine, but I know I think it's just going to be 20 days in Mariopoul and we're all kind of. I mean, because something like Still, which won a lot of critics,

[00:26:46] critics, prizes or American Symphony, which won the PGA over 20 days in Mariopoul. Like those aren't here, but those are the more populist sort of picks. And I think 20 days in Mariopoul is very timely. And I think it'll win. Well, I'm quite sure about it.

[00:27:02] I have that one as one of my biggest predictions. I don't see anything else at the moment, how timely it is. And it is really a powerful film. So I see this one winning Eric. Yeah, and it's not really much of a. Of a match up to me.

[00:27:21] This is a pretty easy win for 20 days. And I agree with Ryan. I think it will be a. A powerful speech. Yeah, it's an it's easy win. I liked hearing that. I agree with Ryan. That's very rare statement set from the one you get today. I know.

[00:27:43] I'm just going to play it on a loop. It's going to be my ringtone. Live action short film, the after invincible night of fortune, red, white and blue and the wonderful story of Henry Sugar. I'm struggling with this one.

[00:27:58] So I'm interested to see what you guys have to say. Eric, you know, or Ryan, go ahead. Oh, well, you know, when we did our predictions episode, I said, I said Henry Sugar and I was kind of. Which is Wes Anderson, of course, was just Wes Anderson's film.

[00:28:17] But no, I then I got a shout out to Sophia, Simonello and Eric. I started thinking back on it and it just. It just feels like the classic. We think it's going to be one thing and it ends up being something else.

[00:28:32] And given everything going on in this country, if people see red, white and blue, which is another very topical short and people really like it, even if you know, it has a twist or whatever in it that some people are like mixed on or whatnot.

[00:28:52] I think that a speech about. Reproductive rights is vital. And I think that it's, you know, the argument about Henry Sugar is it's like, oh, it's a chance to give Wes Anderson an Oscar. It's not even like the most beloved one of the bunch.

[00:29:11] And it's quite long too. And so on Christina's show, I'm making a change in my predictions. I'm going to go right away and blue. I'm going to go red, white and blue. And the fact that Wes Anderson has Asteroid City and there's several

[00:29:28] other movies in this role doll trilogy. I mean, could they award him just on the basis of everything? Oh, they totally could. They it could be one of those like we have we have nominated you a bunch. You had an incredible year.

[00:29:44] You had five shorts and a feature film, but they didn't even nominate the feature film for any of its production design or costumes, which is bullshit because like I feel like they do weird way. Take him for granted or they or they liked.

[00:30:01] We I think we might just overestimate how much they really do like him. I mean, they went all in on Grand Budapest, but have not really done so for any other films besides like one or two maybe nominations here or there.

[00:30:15] So how much do they really love Wes Anderson and his style and aesthetic is the is the real question. So and I think that this will be the kind of the ultimate test of that. It's like if he can't win this, then he ain't gonna probably ever win

[00:30:31] one in his lifetime outside of an honorary one. So but that being said, I don't think he's going to win. I think I'm going to I'm going to get out of my heart of wanting Wes Anderson to have an Oscar and I'm going to just go with

[00:30:43] I think red, white and blue is the is the the one. Red, white and blue very, very timely in a story about a woman getting an abortion with an incredible twist, so to speak. Or and it did feel powerful watching it, I have to say.

[00:31:01] How about you, Eric? Yeah, I mean, I'm still on red, white and blue as the winner. And I actually have Henry Sugar at third. Whoa, the after at number two, which, you know, another Netflix film that has been pushed pretty hard by them and another in the very

[00:31:24] traditional style of this category to be. A lead pipe of race issues of trying to be able to get, you know, something down in a shorter period of time to hit its point home. Henry Sugar is the longest by almost it's almost twice as long

[00:31:50] as the rest of the minutes, 39 minutes and 40 minutes is the limit. That might be that might be the limit for a viewer for something like this. We also know that, you know, director names are not on the the the ballot, the online ballot.

[00:32:06] So if you are voting sight unseen, I hope voters don't do that too much, but I'm sure and I know that they do. You would kind of have to know then that it's Wes Anderson if you haven't seen them all.

[00:32:20] But I do think if people see them all that they will vote red, white and blue. Not necessarily for quality or quantity, but. Just historically. The timeliness of it. Yeah, I was going to say it's just emotionally more resident than Henry Sugar.

[00:32:42] You know, well, I'm going to go with that one too. I feel swayed. Well, there you go. We did our job. Cinematography, I'm happy about this one. El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer and Poor Things. Yay, hoyte. This is time. Yes, it is.

[00:33:02] This is just as locked as Devine. I absolutely. There's nobody that is going to beat him and he deserves it. That movie is so beautiful and he's one of the best ones we have. Well, there are other incredible work, I have to say. Yeah, really incredible lineup.

[00:33:20] My Maestro is beautiful and not to mention Prieto and Killers of the Flower. I mean, he had doubled this year with that and Barbie. You know what I mean? To show the versatility in someone's ear. I mean, honestly, he should he should probably win it

[00:33:33] because he's I know he's never won either. And to see that versatility from this candy coated dream to this dark Western, you know, film from Scorsese. Yeah, it's incredible year. And then there's also just great movies that weren't even nominated.

[00:33:53] I mean, like Zone of Interest is a movie that should have definitely got in here. Like sorry, Ed Lockman, but what the fuck are you doing in here? Like it's you didn't make May, December. So I can't even argue that, like, you know, it's which is another film

[00:34:08] that I would consider or all the strangers or all dirt roads taste of salt. There's so many movies that were just incredibly shot this year. And in them and then there's poor things with the fish island. So there you go.

[00:34:20] Yes, a lot of fish islands in his movie. Anyway, what you do think you feel the same, Eric, right? Yeah, I mean, this is this is the pretty again, a pretty easy win. He's he's won everything up to this point that that he could and needed to.

[00:34:42] I mean, how do you how do you argue with having to create brand new lenses and formats and ways to shoot film? Brand new film. Kodak had to create brand new film for him for this. Black and white first time ever used on IMAX. Yeah, it just.

[00:35:01] There's just carrying those IMAX cameras around. You see in all those yes, carrying them. Just heavy load. But I mean, this is this is close up. This is an IMAX film that is full of close ups. This isn't about trying to, you know, find the largest landscape possible.

[00:35:23] It's close ups and yeah, I mean, the work the work on this is is extraordinary. I do love as much as, you know, Elkande being here over other things is not great. I do love that the lineup is. Playing with aspect ratio and black and white and

[00:35:44] in multiple formats in a way that I think is is how to celebrate this category. Yeah, I agree with that. All right, makeup and hairstyling, gold, maestro, Oppenheimer, poor things and Society of the Snow. I think it's going to be maestro.

[00:36:01] I think it has a funny trajectory because of all first it had how's a hero had all these complaints about the nose, which sort of died out. And then it's like the best old age makeup I've ever seen. It's like had a weird narrative flow regarding the makeup.

[00:36:24] But that's what I'm predicting. And between, you know, between that and even the whales makeup last year, controversy is always in such a bubble and voters do not respond to it. So when people online talk about the nose or whatever it is,

[00:36:48] they are talking in a bubble with themselves. That's not a real thing that voters care about. It just isn't no matter how many times people yell it and want it to be. It just isn't. Yeah, I think I think it just I think all those

[00:37:11] bad faith arguments against it got squashed for me when the kids came out and said, no, it's great work and he looked just like my dad. And but it did it to an effect where like I had a family member asked me about the film and they're like,

[00:37:30] I don't know if I can get over the nose. And they didn't know that that like Jamie and them would come out. And so there has been this weird relationship between people, critics, journalists and the industry about maestro

[00:37:45] and how it's it is one really to when you look back on the autopsy of this season to look at a movie that should have done better than it did. If it does pull this one out, it would be

[00:38:04] it would be kind of weird because it's not as strong in any other categories that is here. It's phenomenal work. Don't get me wrong. That's why I think we're all kind of like, is it poor things? Does Oppenheimer pull a pull an upset here?

[00:38:18] Or does it you know, is it you know, it's definitely not gold or a society of the snow. I'm going with maestro just because I think that it follows the trajectory of previous winners of let me show the photo a year in advance.

[00:38:33] But this movie has been two years in advance. Yeah, for that. Yeah. But I this movie, I love the movie. I think it's fantastic. I think people have this weird like hang up on Bradley Cooper and have have really hurt the artisans in terms of like getting nominated

[00:38:53] or now even potentially this win. And I don't think that's fair because I think if you just look at this work in this movie, it's the most it's one it's it's some of the best work out there. These people are phenomenal craftsmen and craftswomen of their jobs.

[00:39:09] And it is not a bad thing to one an Oscar. This fucking logic out there that people keep running of like Bradley Cooper is desperate for an Oscar. You know, he's been desperate for an Oscar Glenn Close. You know, it's been desperate for an Oscar.

[00:39:24] Everyone that's made an effort to ever campaign in the history of this. Leonardo DiCaprio was desperate for a fucking Oscar. That's why he kept talking about how you went and found snow and, you know, slept inside a bear's ass or whatever in the revenant.

[00:39:37] Like, you know, like they they want Oscars. It's like saying you don't want a championship in sports. Stupid. Like it's just dumb. So yeah. And Kaz is amazing. If you ever heard him speak about this movie, it's yeah, they put a lot of work in.

[00:39:56] So I hope he wins. I'm going Maestro too. But how close do you guys think poor things is, Eric? I mean, is it? I mean, I think it's really close. It's and it might be one of those, you know, it should be early on in the show.

[00:40:10] And if poor things wins this, I think a lot of people will start panic posting about what best actress is going to look like because, you know, the the connection between this category and and a lead acting win is is pretty solid.

[00:40:32] We have a lot of very, very good examples of that over the last 20 years. But it's the thing that keeps me from having poor things as the winner here because the makeup is not Emma Stone's makeup. It's Willem de Faust's makeup and he's not even nominated here.

[00:40:54] So the the connection is with the lead character, even if they don't win. Right. So you're going with Maestro too. I am going with Maestro. Well, in the next category, costume design, we have poor things again. They're starting with Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon,

[00:41:15] Oppenheimer and poor things. For me, it seems like a tight race between Barbie and poor things for different reasons. What say you, Ryan? Oh, the the the guilds have very and everybody else have very much lean towards poor things. Well, the costumes are incredible. They're incredible.

[00:41:42] I mean, if they're pieces of art, which of course, sword, sword, Jacqueline Durand's in Barbie, there's there's a whole literal scene of her of Ken throwing out Barbie's clothes and it's hysterical and his his mink and just the the the overall

[00:42:01] the overall just presentation of Barbie's lands cult, you know, just sort of vibe and style. The only thing and Eric pointed this out and the reason why I'm picking poor things and this is true

[00:42:14] is I've had a hang up on Barbie kind of like not in my own personal taste, but what the Academy will see is still more modern you know, you know, clothes and costume design, especially when you get to the Mattel sequences in the middle of the film

[00:42:32] and they are they have some weird they need to that's a guild or section in the Academy needs to get overhauled because they all these are either period pieces or they're definitely not just, you know, traditional like a movie like Saltburn, for example, is a costume film delight.

[00:42:52] But it doesn't even get even close to being in this movie in this lineup. Fucking Napoleon is, which is ridiculous. So I think that that modern twist on on some of their costumes could hurt Barbie with some purists and I think it's going to go to poor things,

[00:43:10] which has been very strong with the guilds and with wings. I mean, they've built Barbie clothes from no, I get it. But like those but there's the whole movie is about clothes. I get it. But there's like a whole Barbie's and I get it.

[00:43:24] But there's a whole section of that movie, too, where it's just a guy, a couple of guys in suits and they're in the modern world and they have hang ups on it. They end in poor things is loud and in very period and, you know,

[00:43:38] and very much a big part of Bella Baxter's transformation as a character and in Mark Ruffalo's performances as well. So yeah, I'm going to I'm leaning there. It's like it's I would love to switch because I have a weird

[00:43:56] feeling that Barbie is not walking away with just one thing, but I can't. And you know, because, you know, we'll talk about song, but I feel like it's going to walk away with something else. But I don't know right now what that other thing is.

[00:44:08] So and all the red carpet looks and I think this is so hard. I think there's so many things in Barbie, Eric, what do you say? When I did my my first predictions right after the nominations came out, I had Barbie winning four.

[00:44:24] It was a little over the top. I had it, you know, with song and production design, costume design and adapted screenplay. I was like, all right, yeah, they're going to they're going to go. And, you know, over the last month since then,

[00:44:38] it just feels a little less likely. I do think costume design and production design, you know, are only between four things in Barbie. And I do feel like it is probably very, very close. I yeah, I mentioned the contemporary thing as a as a negative for Barbie

[00:45:00] in both of those categories, just as a possibility. It's not I don't know if it's if it's so strong that it would be the defining factor. But when a race is very close, it anything is a defining factor. So I think it I think it could.

[00:45:20] But it's so wild to think that a a movie that is really all about celebrating costumes like Barbie is as a definition of a character would lose. But poor things has that element as well. And just like we were talking about with makeup,

[00:45:47] the costume design is the focus of the lead character in a major, major way. So I don't know. I mean, I'm going for things, but I think it's so close. I'm going to go today.

[00:46:02] I mean, potentially I'll change it on Sunday, but I'm going to go with Barbie. I just feel that there's this huge narrative. Margot Robbie has been carrying this through all through award season with new Barbie looks on every red carpet.

[00:46:14] I don't know, there's just something about the scope of and even, you know, the iconic Ken costumes with that furry thing that everyone wore for Halloween. I don't I just I'm thinking it's there, but I'm probably wrong. I'll take a swing on that one. That's takes wings.

[00:46:37] All right, international feature film, EO Capitano from Italy, perfect days, Japan, Society of the Snow, Spain, the teachers lounge, Germany and the zone of interest United Kingdom. Anyone have anything else other than the zone of interest? Zone of interest all the way.

[00:46:55] Yeah, I wish it should just be very thankful that anatomy of a fall is not here. We thank the Merci beaucoup. Yeah. Well, no. I don't know. The French kind of screwed themselves over on that one. But but yeah, zone of interest.

[00:47:12] Fantastic film. Did they know they got a lot of debate? Everyone they did because they're not getting the Oscar. Like, I think that, you know, I think this one. No, I think that I think they know if if anything,

[00:47:27] Justin is going to look very, very good in all this because if she did get this Oscar, if it wasn't anatomy of fall, she wouldn't even have gotten it. It would have gone to the country. So, you know, good on her potentially, you know,

[00:47:42] she gets to badmouth the country and potentially win an Oscar like good for her. She's the real she's the real winner of award season, you know? So anyway, worthy, worthy winner. Yes, like this documentary short film, the ABCs of book banning the barber of Little Rock Island

[00:48:01] in between the last repair shop and Ney Ney and Waypo. I'm split on this one, too. I'm. This is a very difficult category. Yeah. And I've and I've seen it go three different ways through, you know, a lot of people that I either follow or admire

[00:48:23] or just kind of start looking at at what their group think might be. I'm I am sticking with the last repair shop. I think I think it's campaign during the voting period is was hard to beat. But again, this this this is easily one of those categories

[00:48:52] where a voter maybe has not seen everything, but they don't abstain from things that they haven't seen and vote anyway. So they're voting on titles and they're voting on ideas. So the ABCs of book banning, absolutely. That is what's happening right now.

[00:49:09] And it's what I'm going to vote for, even though it's a pretty. Generic version of what it's a PowerPoint presentation. There are just to say. Yeah, it's it's unfortunate. This book has banned and this book was banned. Beloved people behind it with a lot of Hollywood friends.

[00:49:28] Absolutely. Sheila Nevin is a powerhouse. And again, it's one of those if you know, you know, because her name is not going to be on there. Yeah. So it's, you know, between those two and those grandmas. They've been everywhere. They really have.

[00:49:48] But it's also it's the shortest film of the five. And it's the slightest film of the five. It's the only one that's a non issue, really based film. And while it stands out because of that,

[00:50:02] it also, I think, can make it feel far less important than the other ones. Like the. Do they tend to vote importance or feel good? I mean, they had that like, what was that the the yak in the classroom movie the other year or whatever.

[00:50:16] And that was documentary feature. I know, I know. But what I'm saying is that, well, what I'm saying is, even in the shorts or even in something like that, they do not go with the sentimentality in these. And they go with the things that are either more pressing

[00:50:37] or they go with things that have a narrative and to grant to sentimentality. It just still has to. But it's got to mean something. There's got to be a message to it. And those grandmas are doing all right.

[00:50:51] But, you know, they, you know, it's not like they solved world hunger or anything. You know what I mean? And I will say this if it wins, it'll be a great speech. Yeah, it will be. It will be a fantastic speech from from Sean wrong.

[00:51:06] And if he's able to to bring the grandmas on stage, I don't think so. They'll probably be a hell of a week for him pretty far back in the in the auditorium. He'll have a hell of a week because he'll be he'll be taken

[00:51:18] if he wins, it'll be taking that Oscar to South by because because Dede is going from Sundance to South by. Yeah, so his his feature link debut. I'm going with the last repair shop too. I feel like when when it was announced right

[00:51:35] during the middle of voting that they got like a 15 million dollar endowment or whatever. And like they were able and I don't think many of these are very good to be fair. But I think I think that Eric's right.

[00:51:48] If there's one in second place, it's the ABC of book banning. I think that that that one's just like the title alone says exactly the speech you're going to hear on the stage if it wins. But the last repair shop, it was kind of everywhere.

[00:52:02] The campaign for that was like all over the place. You know, that's also got a catchy name to its last repair shop. Like what is it? Two. So I mean, look at the look at the titles of the winners.

[00:52:17] And that that will tell you that there are definitely people that vote on just on a title. It just kind of sound like, oh my god, this is this is where this is where we're going to go. Yeah.

[00:52:32] Usually my logic in these categories for the shorts is just what's the saddest thing possible? And there's also music based docs do really, really well. Yeah, they do. So there's that. It's I'm going to go with the last repair shop too.

[00:52:50] I feel like it's kind of a safe choice too. Yeah. I think it's not a good film. I think it's actually bad. It's so unfocused and interesting when it's incredibly involving. Exactly. So it's not a great lineup, as you said this year. It was. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:53:12] And I'm team nine nine wipe. Well, I hope it was. Animated short film letter to a pig. Ninety five senses are uniform. Pakiderm and Ryan's absolute favorite of the evening. War is over inspired by the music of John and Yoko. So this is Christmas. No.

[00:53:35] God, what a giant turd that is. But it's going to win. You know, it's so going to win. I'm actually very. Title theory in the works. I'm very confident, actually, that this thing is going to win. And I and I will reiterate this again.

[00:53:54] I hate Eric Anderson because he sent me this thing and I watched it and I can't get it out of my brain. I have not been able to listen to like any Beatles or John music for like the last month

[00:54:07] because all I've been thinking about is this stupid short and how bad it is. I hope it's ninety five senses, which I actually think is really good. But yeah, it's going to end up being war is over. And oh, it's going to be such an eye roll.

[00:54:24] It says that's a good time to again go to the bathroom. And this also has really powerful people behind it with. Wedda and everything. I mean, it has a lot of momentum. His son and Yoko producing the thing like. It he wrote. He wrote the movie too.

[00:54:42] Like it's it's it's so there like and that's the thing is like Eric's like, well, you know, I don't know. Well, Wes Anderson is not going to be on the ballot. Their names are on the damn ballot. It's in the title. Very smart person who you put war.

[00:54:56] Yeah, exactly. Yoko that publicist or whoever producer should get a raise. When it's when it's yeah. I think nothing to say, Eric. I mean, yeah, no, I think war is over is winning too. Yeah, I sent I sent the link of this in the group chat because I

[00:55:17] I watched it and I did not feel like I should be the only one to be punished. It was like a deleted scene from Saw X. Yeah. It was. And I think the animation is lovely, but it's those last two minutes, those those last those last minutes,

[00:55:36] those that needle drop everything about it is so horrifically what kind of where this category is going. Yeah, we've had wonderful winners here recently. Hair Love is so fantastic. Wow, wonderful. But we have really clearly moved past the era of Pixar and Disney shorts

[00:56:01] and the the warmth and the humor of them. And kind of moving to a really dark place. Acting like the world just died. Or it's true. He has a point. There was something about getting to watch the animated short films.

[00:56:22] Now you're like sitting with a pillow in front of your face. Also, just the movie make the short doesn't make any damn sense. And it's kind of a mess. No, it's actually really nonsensical. But, you know, I mean, I know a lot of people really, really

[00:56:37] hated the boy, the mole, the fox and the horse last year. And, you know, if you voted for that, you are voting for this. Yeah. Yeah. And you just are. But I agree with Ryan. It's got Gal Gadot's vote.

[00:56:52] Second time, I think 95 cents is it's the only one that is not really kind of like the rest of them, just visually and storytelling. And it's isn't it kind of wild that like an animated feature, we get like these really like pushing the the form with the boy

[00:57:11] in the hair and then spider verse and and and, you know, these just these movies that are like, damn, this is a good representation of what animated films could be feature links. And then you get to this category and you're like, fuck, it's bleak in the world

[00:57:25] is on fire and holy shit. What are we going to do? Like, yeah, it's it's it's really interesting. No, I just found that interesting when Eric was talking. But yeah, or is over if you want it. But so we're going with that one. Yeah. Production design.

[00:57:43] Barbie killers of the flower moon, Napoleon Oppenheimer and poor things. Another tight race between Barbie and poor things, I figure. Yes. Hmm. No, Ryan. Well, I think I think I think I'm predicting poor things. But I would not be surprised.

[00:58:08] If there was a little oppie upset in this category. Because I do think there is going to be some downvoting for sure. Some down balloting voting where just people vote extensively for for for Oppenheimer in every category because they love it. It's a very beloved film.

[00:58:27] And I think that. I don't think I do not subscribe to the vote splitting. But I think that it is a tight race between all three of these. And one of them could win.

[00:58:42] And I think that if there is down voting just cross the board for that movie in the story, turn in my ballot, love this movie. I do think that this one is one that could win. I always forget the guilt that it that it won. Eric, it won.

[00:58:59] Obviously, it wasn't against Barbie and poor things in that category. It was the art director's guilty. It won the art director. Yeah. And against killers flower moon and Napoleon. Exactly. So it did beat those. I'm going with poor things.

[00:59:17] But I do and I think Barbie is very close to. But I don't know, I got this weird feeling that Oppenheimer might take more than what we just think the ceiling of it's going to be. And it could be in a category like this.

[00:59:30] More chance than Barbie, you think? Yeah, because I think Oppenheimer is a more beloved film from the Academy from nominations to just wins in general than Barbie. So I think Oppenheimer is too is a very close to and Barbie is a very close story. Eric.

[00:59:48] So this is what I wrote in my very brief production design piece because this this category is so wacky. One thing about the production design precursors that has thrown things to the wolves a bit, especially this year is the inconsistency

[01:00:05] with which groups that separate their awards into categories like period, contemporary and fantasy sci fi. Oppenheimer's art directors win was in period film where it beat fellow Oscar nominees, killers of the flower moon and Napoleon. No argument argument there about where it belongs.

[01:00:23] Barbie and poor things both competed in fantasy film there were poor things. One but the set decorator society put Barbie and fantasy where it won and poor things in period where it won beating Oppenheimer. It's really messy. It's really messy. I would love some consistency there.

[01:00:45] It's one of the weird things is that before the guilds started announcing Barbie was the overwhelming critical favorite in this category, it has well over a dozen wins to a few that poor things has just absolutely dominating. But then that happened with Babylon last year.

[01:01:11] So maybe Margot Robbie is the curse. Oh, no, she was box office poison for a while. I mean, this I mean, it did Babylon. Absolutely dominated production design wins last year and then lost at the Oscars. Same with score and they didn't even. Yeah.

[01:01:31] I have heard quite a little bit of negativity towards poor things. Production design, because it looks like the cheesecake factory. That's one point. Exactly. While Barbie is there's a momentum. I mean, this is sort of old fashioned style

[01:01:49] production design that they've done and really looked at old Hollywood. I'm thinking there could be some love for that. But I'm this one I'm stumped on and just sort of going for poor things because everyone seems to have changed their mind.

[01:02:03] But I'm worried about splitting things too much between poor things and Barbie that it's going to be one or the other across the board. Yeah, this is the production design, costume design go hand in hand quite a lot. It's it can be very common.

[01:02:18] But I think the contemporary issue is going to negatively impact Barbie here, much more than in costume design, because when we leave Barbie land, we're just in the real world. And even though, you know, the the Mattel offices are created

[01:02:35] and there are there are created production design elements, it's going to feel very different. And poor things is 100 percent sound stage every single thing we see is production design. There's no locations. And I think I don't I'm not sure they did a great job of providing

[01:02:58] like really good behind the scenes so you could see it. Barbie did a little bit better with that. And so I still think it's it's close, but I actually put Oppenheimer in second. I have poor things winning and Oppenheimer in second, just in case that there is.

[01:03:18] You know, a more of a sweep than the eight seven seven eight. But it's going to get. Yeah, I mean, all fairness. Really should be going to killers of the flower moon. He literally built a goddamn train station in all those houses and

[01:03:36] everything Jack Fisk is a legend. And the fact that he doesn't have an Oscar is bullshit. But his protege is Ruth DeJean who did Oppenheimer and had a lovely speech, you know, at the at when she won her award.

[01:03:51] Talking about Fisk, Eric saw that and it was a very emotional speech. And that production design is very. Intercled to Oppenheimer as well in those locations and shooting in and around Los Alamos and in Berkeley and in Princeton and various places that they do in Sue.

[01:04:14] I and especially also to that small little cupboard place that they found to do those the last hour of the film. They've talked about that a lot over the last couple of weeks as well, that team.

[01:04:26] I do worry a little bit about poor things and sort of like it's it's production design as well as also its special effects and how it's blended that there is a heavy amount of green screen in both it and Barbie. I agree with Eric.

[01:04:40] I think like there's a couple of moments in Barbie, especially like the car chase scene to buy the latest key of Forte where it's not the most pronounced. But poor things is the loudest. So that's why I'm going with it. But if Oppenheimer won, it would be great.

[01:05:01] Honestly, like four out of five would be pretty good wins here. If Napoleon won, which is not, I would scratch my eyes out. I hate that movie so much and just think it looks trash. But that that lamb shop, though. I mean, listen, and those.

[01:05:21] Yeah, those you think you look so great because you got boats. Boats. Yeah, no. Yeah, I'm going with poor things here, too, at the risk of splitting. But since I have Barbie on costume for the moment,

[01:05:35] but I agree with you here, this is a little bit too much of the contemporary scenes. Original score, American fiction, Indiana Jones in the dial of destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and poor things, another Ludwig second win all the way. No, it's John Williams.

[01:05:55] He's going to do it, guys. Indy five. Let's go. Let's go. No, OK. That's one of the worst nominations across the board here. I, yeah, it's it's Ludwig Gorneson, not even close. It should be his first win. Correct. It should. Yeah. He has Nicholas Sprattel's Oscar.

[01:06:21] You know, so. Yeah, his first one is ridiculous. That's a bad that's a bad way. I'm sorry. I agree with Eric. Yeah, I don't like that. We're about this win for him here. Oh, this is this is an incredible win

[01:06:35] and his two scores with Nolan, this one and the tenant score are easily some of Nolan's best scores in his films. It's like that and interstellar are the three I think of most. So. Well, that seems clear. So moving on to visual effects, the creator, Godzilla minus one,

[01:06:56] Guardians of the Galaxy, Volume Three, Mission Impossible, Dead, Reckoning Part One and Napoleon. Oh, talking about the one category that I have heard so much about the last like week since we've done ours. And I have so I have doubts, but

[01:07:14] and I've heard things back and forth with so many people. I'm just settling with the creator, but I have no confidence in this whatsoever. I mean, honestly, we'd all love Godzilla minus one to win this Oscar. It should. But things that we want don't end up always happening,

[01:07:34] especially in this category. If they were going to ever give one to Godzilla, they would have done it probably years ago. I mean, there is. I mean, how much does the fact that this this always feels like a very Hollywood big budget blockbuster award?

[01:07:55] And the clearly Godzilla minus one is not me is an international film. Kind of would would sort of look at like, essentially, someone outside of the studio system does special effects better, which I would say they do because that visual effects of Godzilla

[01:08:14] is probably some of the best we've seen in years. For no budget. For no budget whatsoever or whatever budget they're telling us is the budget. But I think I think the creator is just kind of like the safe choice.

[01:08:30] You know, but but then also Napoleon sitting there as well and has a production design nomination to basically what I'm saying here is that if you're going off the stats or trying to find your reasoning through it, this category will be another example of the modern era

[01:08:47] breaking statistics and stats and creating, you know, not new rules, but just destroying logic of, well, this year connects to this year to the issue. You know what I mean? Like I like that. You know what I'm feeling around Godzilla minus one?

[01:09:03] I mean, besides that they've done a great campaign and everything. I'm feeling that passion that was for parasite, that passion that was for everything everywhere. There's something like people really want. RRR. RRR. There's this whole feeling of the new international part of the Academy.

[01:09:21] I mean, people want this to win and there's not a lot of that feeling. I respect that feeling and I have a feeling that that's what's going to carry this over. I hope so. I just am jaded because I know that the Oscars for

[01:09:36] for 95 years have mostly gone against that kind of thinking. And not many people like the creator. I mean, not many people have seen it because it was a flop. You know, most of these movies in here were flops, you know,

[01:09:51] you know, and Napoleon, you don't think about that movie in terms of it's VFX, you know, because if you did, then they're pretty laughable. I mean, off of Merritt, Godzilla is the best one in here.

[01:10:06] I just think I'm going safely with the creator and I could go out on a little bit passion or good. I'm glad somebody did. Eric, where are you at? I'm going with the creator. I completely understand the passion pick behind

[01:10:27] Godzilla and passion definitely does drive a lot of voters at the Oscars. It just is it's a it's a bigger thing than like respect of of a film is the passion behind it. I'm I don't know how often, though, people can properly separate what online passion is

[01:10:59] and what real voter passion is. And that includes, you know, saying things like nobody cares about the creator. People say that online a lot, yet it dominated its own guild quite easily. So I don't know if statements like that are as true as

[01:11:24] as people want them to be because they want Godzilla to win or need it to win or feel like it can. I think it's a very close race. I think it is, you know, the creator, Napoleon and Godzilla are all. Right there. And yeah, there are multiple.

[01:11:47] Stats and trends that are in place, one of which could. Fall or change or move because, you know, every year we're going to see different motivations. You know, Godzilla as as a winner here as its sole nomination is going to be one of the hardest to overcome.

[01:12:10] It's really uncommon. The Jungle Book did it in 2016. And then before that it was that becomes her 1992. That's tough. And those are both. Very American films. One of which had very iconic visual effects. And the other was. The real kind of beginning of the era of.

[01:12:39] Live action Disney being a big profitable. Venture for the studio and Godzilla doesn't really. Figure into kind of any of that. I also get, you know, the the RRR passion behind it, where this is its only nomination. It's the only place we can vote for it.

[01:13:03] And that can that could push, you know, in an average voter. But. I'm still going to lean to the creator. You're so so less both of you. I worked with him way too long. I've worked with him for a long time. I worked with him way too long.

[01:13:24] I'm sure you're right. I mean, no, if Godzilla wins then it means passion did did win over. I love honestly, I'm going to tell you this. If Godzilla minus one won this award, it would be the best win on the night. It would be.

[01:13:38] Well, I have to call that Godzilla plus one. There you go. Because the plus ones, the. I don't think that I won't fucking tweet something. Oh, you're going to totally do that. You've got it locked in the chamber. Yeah, I'll do it. I'm just doing it right now.

[01:13:52] Green plays original anatomy of a fall, the holdovers, Maestro made December and past lives. It's anatomy of its anatomy of a fall. I rewatched it actually this past weekend and. It's it's a remarkable screenplay. It really is. And it just. I don't know.

[01:14:17] You're just sucked into that movie from the beginning. What she's able to do as a director, her direction's phenomenal in that movie. But yeah, I just think that it. The whole at the holdovers was going to win this category. Where are its wins?

[01:14:40] Maestro is not winning this May December. It's its only nomination and past lives. I would. I would love past lives to win this because I love the idea of Academy Award winner, Celine Song, but I don't think that she her film is not as strong as

[01:14:58] anatomy of a fall in terms of nominations. I she hasn't been the other one either. That's one anything. You know, in in matchups against anatomy or against Barbie or you made December Maestro of the holdovers, it's mostly just been. This is a great nomination for it to have.

[01:15:21] It's won a lot of critics price for first features, debut director, all that. She has a and she will be back because she is a phenomenal, phenomenal writer and director, but anatomy is a movie. You talk about parasite and passion.

[01:15:38] We've seen that in person at festivals all season long. It's been a movie that has been topical and. And I think that, yeah, I think that this is kind of an easy winner. If it didn't win, I'd be kind of shocked because of the BAFTA win,

[01:16:01] the globe win, its passion behind it, the five nominations. It's overwhelming just just, you know, power through the international categories when it's against something even like zone of interest throughout the season, too. It's it's a passionate, passionate movie. Rick. Yeah, I am going with anatomy as well.

[01:16:27] I actually have past lives as my spoiler and not. Okay. Over's yeah, which I know is a is a little risky, but. We just talked about, you know, where a voter can vote for a film.

[01:16:40] And even though anatomy has five nominations, this is where they will vote for it. It's not winning this picture. It's not winning director. It's not winning editing. I know people want Hulder to win. She's not going to win. This is this is where it will be.

[01:16:58] And it it feels so clear. That I'm a little worried. But I mean, this is this is where it's going to happen. I'm not saying that I'm not saying that it matters. But you know, Celine song winning some awards at the spirits, right? As the voting's going on.

[01:17:21] I'm not saying the spirits matter at all, but some speeches that are different than what you normally see throughout the season that we've seen throughout the season. That room was very that does have Academy voters in that room

[01:17:34] and people can watch it and see them all over the Internet. And so that that could that's why I think your theory of her being too Eric is is is is right. And it's also that was one of the best reviewed films of the year. People love it.

[01:17:50] I actually re saw that one again this past week and two back to back. And they're incredible films. But yeah, I just I think that I think we both agree that anatomy just has more passion, particularly in this category than than the others.

[01:18:09] Yeah. And I think people can vote and vote for screenplay wins on a lot of things structure. But I think mostly people vote on it for dialogue. And that is that is what people think a screenplay really is is just dialogue.

[01:18:26] And actually, all five of these have wonderful interactions and monologues. And I don't think you can get past obviously the kitchen fight that is in anatomy of a fall. It's one of those things that is going to be reproduced

[01:18:46] in acting classes and things like that for years to come. Although that being said, Natalie Portman's monologue at the end of May, December is the greatest of all of them here. No shit. Oh, no, I'm not worried and I'm 100 percent

[01:19:05] that it's going to be anatomy of a fall here based on everything you're saying. And that fight and the passion and messy and everyone talking about who did she do it? Did she not do it? Which I think is the weirdest discussion. Did we lose Ryan?

[01:19:23] I think maybe. Well, hopefully he'll come back. We'll continue on or was abducted. He fell out the window. Start playing B.I.M.P. Hello. Sorry. Oh, you're back. OK. Adapted. Let's go to there. American fiction, Barbie Oppenheimer, poor things and the zone of interest.

[01:19:53] Another kind of split one for me. Are you guys going American fiction all the way? I am going American fiction. The wins that it got are just too overwhelmingly. Pointing us in that direction. And there's no reason that this needed to win Bapta as its sole nomination.

[01:20:17] There's no reason it needed to win that, but it did it won USC. So it's it's beaten Oppenheimer whenever possible. And Barbie, this is the only place that it's competed against all of these adapted screenplays. So while I think that

[01:20:39] it it's not exactly like a three screenplay race, it is really just those three that are kind of jockeying for it. It's crazy to think of Oppenheimer winning as many as it will and not winning this. It is it is bizarre.

[01:20:59] It's, you know, adapting a nonfiction book into a fictional narrative, which I think is more difficult, more interesting than than a lot of just simple adapted screenplays. Barbie is this is the only place you can reward credit Irwin. That again, another another conversation of

[01:21:28] passion and where can we get this post this person a win? I do wonder if the hoopla over her director snub has softened enough by the time that voting happened, that it was not a huge factor. But I'm sure it is for some.

[01:21:53] But I can't look past American Fictions wins and it's Tiff People's Choice win, which should put it right back into the history of of that winner winning at least one Oscar. Yeah, the fact that last year's fablemen's didn't win anything and American Fiction will win one is bullshit.

[01:22:15] But that's another conversation for another time. Um, I. I agree with Eric. I think that I think the hoopla around the Barbie stuff and Jimmy Kimmel bringing it up in his little teaser and continuously pulling that I think that that could be to two ways.

[01:22:37] It could be a reminder to voters of the of the urgency to not to reward Greta Gerwig in this category and Noah Bombok, too. And since their coverage or it could have the opposite effect, it could sour them and basically say. We're not going to reward

[01:23:02] the fan base and it's not to Greta Gerwig or Noah Bombok's fault at all. But it's how people take in these nominations, how they take in the, you know, just how the Academy has seen this movie. There was a long response from both Gerwig and Robbie

[01:23:24] and they're in a lose, lose situation from any of that. So it's not their fault. I mean, you had like people like Hillary Clinton and all these people online were responding to it. And it was just a wild week and a half of of just over proportion,

[01:23:42] you know, hyperbole. And it takes away from the fact that Warner Brothers really didn't then OK, force the jugular go and target specifically in their campaigning at the last kind of go rounds of that screenplay.

[01:24:00] And they had moments where they did that, but they did not do that during the voting period. I think Eric, you go you make an interesting point about Oppenheimer and not just the difficulty of adapting American Prometheus, but then Nolan's particular first person narrative

[01:24:17] of Oppenheimer's perspective isn't in. It's to the best and worst detriments of people, you know, when they talk about that film, but it's clearly one of the best scripts he's ever made and written. It's a movie about people talking in rooms. It's a very talky movie.

[01:24:36] And it's one that I could see a lot of writers and a lot of people go, Holy shit, like, you know, this is this this is the kind of movie we want to see. And in a script that they would love to reward.

[01:24:50] Courts Jefferson's screenplay, though, is very topical. It's funny. It's light, but it has dramatic beats and moments to it. He's a new name in to a lot of people in the world. So it's a chance to reward him and reward that film

[01:25:10] because it's not going to win anything else. And I have American fiction winning. I think that Oppenheimer is second because I do agree with Eric. The idea of it not sweeping or it being necessary. And people being like, well, of course, you know,

[01:25:26] you know, American fiction is going to win. Well, it wasn't necessary for Del Toro to win his or for Bong to win in screenplay or the Daniels to win there last year. We try to. And yes, I know that, you know,

[01:25:38] McDonough wanted other places in every year is different. It's not necessary for Nolan to win this award for that to win best picture. And I'm sure just like Eric said, there's going to be a bunch of tweets going out. Like, he lost screenplay. What does this mean?

[01:25:52] Because people don't know how to follow the race that they obsess about online. But if he did win, it would be the old. It would be like, oh, OK, this is the most Oscars since Lord of the Rings and which would be crazy for this movie.

[01:26:12] So now it'll it'll hit Slumdog. Yeah, easily at that point. Slumdog, if it wins adaptive screenplay, then. Yeah, but it like, you know, if it upsets maybe in another category, then it could get to that nine. Yes, even 10 category. But so that's why I have it in second.

[01:26:33] But yeah, I think it's American fiction. And it's really sad because I would love to see Greta Gerwig have an Oscar. And I know Nolan's winning director spoiler for that. So it would have been nice to to see her, but she keeps coming up short.

[01:26:48] And but I know one day I do know one day she will get one. She she is a very popular director. And she's she's going to she's going to get there. This is a better loss this go around than Jojo Rabbit, in my opinion.

[01:27:02] Oh, yes, for little women. So that's an abomination and has an age well at all. I'm going with American fiction, too. I feel the momentum is there and is when he had a really nice speech. I think that's it's a movie

[01:27:16] that you say feels topical and I feel in terms of Harvey, of course, would like to see Greta and Noah there on stage together and just the admiration for what they did with this with Barbie, for God's sake, putting all these meaningful things

[01:27:35] into a movie about a doll was pretty amazing. And I think it could have a chance of if that momentum you're talking about after all the discussions about the director nomination loss could come and Oppenheimer as well.

[01:27:50] But I feel that it also American fiction is the one to beat here. One last thing, too, is is. There are people that do not consider this and then it adapted screenplay. There are people digging their feet in still that this is an original screenplay

[01:28:10] and it should win an original. And I don't know if this is the thing that's what's so crazy about this is we have not seen a test run at any other guild, at any critics group, at any television show where all these were Oppenheimer, Barbie and American fiction

[01:28:28] have been in the same screenplay category. So if Barbie does win this, it just proves that there was passion for it and that it probably was going to win original too. Maybe I don't know. We never know that it was the right move, right?

[01:28:46] Move to make back in the fall. I said, I was like, I think Barbie can win in either no matter where it goes. And I mean, that for a really long time. But I mean, if if Oppenheimer won, it would fit the traditional narrative. If American fiction won,

[01:29:04] it would fit the lone screenplay winners that we that we've seen. If Barbie won, it would it would it would be a great win. Like those are great wins. And so but I think there's that contingent still of like voters that will think it's original

[01:29:23] and then want to vote for maybe something else or it's the opposite way too again where, you know, it's original and it's the most original of the adapted screenplays. Yeah. I mean, so so there you go. All right, here's the one that's killing me.

[01:29:39] Sound, the creator, Maestro, Mission Impossible, Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer and the Zone of Interest. I just so split between Oppenheimer and the Zone of Interest, both which I think are incredible craftsmanship behind. I talked to Johnny Byrne and what he did with the Zone of Interest,

[01:30:01] the immense amount of dark, dark research he did in order to do this and how much the sound is part of that guttural, horrible feeling that the three of us felt when we saw it in Tellurid afterwards,

[01:30:16] where you can hardly talk so much has to do with hearing those screams and contrasts between what he's doing in the house. While Oppenheimer is incredible work too, the explosion and when they take the sound away and when they put it back and I'm guessing that Oppenheimer

[01:30:37] on the basis of all the wins it's going to get below the line probably has the bigger chance here. But if people have actually been reading about the work that Johnny Byrne did on the Zone of Interest, so I'm stuck on this one. What do you say, Eric?

[01:30:54] I don't think it's really that close. I think this is this is a pretty easy win for Oppenheimer. And I think part of it is besides the fact that Oppenheimer has a film editing nomination and Zone does not, which is actually a big factor.

[01:31:14] I don't I don't know if you can like really. And an average voter either properly separate the soundscape and the score of Oppenheimer. They are so completely interconnected. And Zone is the very same way by Zone was not able

[01:31:34] to manage a score nomination that it should have gotten over, you know, things like American fiction in Indiana Jones that would have bolstered that idea that it could win. It did win BAFTA. Give a combined award to Johnny Byrne and Mika.

[01:31:54] Who? And the LA Film Critics, didn't they like give a combined awards to sound and score? Yeah, yeah. And some do just like sound design and incorporate everything together. I do think Zone's BAFTA win over Oppenheimer was pretty interesting. But then last week, the.

[01:32:18] Where is it? Yeah, motion picture sound editors opted for Society of the Snow over Zone. Absolutely shocking, shocking win. But. You you talked about Johnny Byrne, about Zone's sound designer. I still cannot get out of my head. The the creation of.

[01:32:44] The sound and I mean, really every moment of the film because there were cameras and microphones in everywhere, every single room and everything was being shot at the same time so that you could hear things that were happening in real time,

[01:33:03] even though your focus was on, you know, these two people in this room, you heard the people in the other room, you heard not so big brother called it. And I I don't know if enough people.

[01:33:17] Saw that and knew that it's the kind of thing I I I I hope and I wish that was, you know, more widely seen and presented because conceptually, it's by far the most interesting of any of these five nominees and what

[01:33:37] and how they did it and and what they accomplished. I think if we had split categories, which I'm all for going back to split categories. Yep. Is we get Oppenheimer one and we give Zone another

[01:33:50] and we would call it a night and we wouldn't have to worry about it. And I think it's going to go to Oppenheimer. I don't think just because of the score, the sound and how intricate it is to the editing nomination

[01:34:05] and the zone of interest does not have one of those. Those have usually correlated. That's been a big correlation of the last in the sort of for a long, long time. I don't even know how far back it kind of goes.

[01:34:18] Eric knows he's been around for the 96 years of the creation of the Academy Awards. But I think that if you love Oppenheimer, the sound the sound work in that movie is so integral to it as well.

[01:34:34] I mean, the particles and the the way in which that Oppenheimer is forging these ideas. And then I mean, I mean, yes, the Trinity test is the cinematic of, you know, moment of the year, one of the moments of the years, you know, and

[01:34:53] it is a part where everything in that movie stops and you are immersed in sound. I love Maestro sound work. I think it's incredible. Like watching Maestro at home does not give it. It does not serve the service of that movie,

[01:35:13] because when you watch it in a theater, that sound work is absolutely astonishing. The zone of interest to me would be my personal winner because, yeah, that sound work is a character and a big part of making you as an audience member.

[01:35:32] Feel the totality of what Jonathan Glazer and that team is trying to do is manipulative in the in the best way I could say because it's trying to provoke a reaction out of you and your imagination and how horrific that can be.

[01:35:52] And so I would love for zone of interest to win. I know that the passion and the bathtub in is big for it, but the but Oppenheimer is the more beloved film and probably the film that again, that of this category, everybody's seen more.

[01:36:13] And people you can talk about the totality of zone. But if you point out just the Trinity test in Oppenheimer, that seals the deals for a lot of people as well, too. So I'm going to Oppenheimer, but I would love a zone of interest upset in this category.

[01:36:30] I think we're all on the same page here. And I think we have some categories coming up where we'll be pretty on the same page as well. Original song, it never went away from American Symphony. I'm just Ken from Barbie. What was I made for from Barbie?

[01:36:45] The fire inside from Flamin Hot song for my people from Killers of the Flower Moon. I'm going for Billy Eilish on this one. I mean, this is how Diane Warren wins, right? No, I'm just kidding. How many is it now? 11, 13, 15, 15. She's collecting them, collecting them like Infinity Stones.

[01:37:07] And no, it's going to be Billy Eilish. I mean, the Grammy win for Song of the Year. She's been performing it, you know, at every, you know, child's party in Los Angeles that has a voter for like the last six months. No, she has.

[01:37:26] She's been like like lunches and the Grammys and all these places performing it. When she went to like low level guilds, she did. She's like, yeah, she was at SAG. You know what I mean? Like you just like let me show you how it's done, Diane Warren. Exactly.

[01:37:45] She's like, I'm going everywhere. You know, 22 with two Oscars. I mean, yeah, the youngest to ever have will be the youngest ever to have two. I think a song for my people, the Killers of the Flamie song will be the moment of the night.

[01:38:01] I have my own record about that. I think it will be so emotional and I think I'm just kin will be followed right behind it because people will be so happy to see it and see Gosling do it even though I think that that it could

[01:38:17] it's giving very shades of we don't talk about Bruno or they're going to screw it up and they're going to have like Megan the Sallian show up and you're like, what the hell are we even doing?

[01:38:25] No, I mean this I mean, one of the great things is that we're getting all of the songs performed by the original artists in the film and not some weird. No, I know. I just. The option of that.

[01:38:37] That was such a big part of that movie and it didn't. I don't. I know Gosling doesn't typically like he didn't even do the Lala land songs. He didn't do like City of Stars or any of that stuff. No, he's probably going to have some stage fright.

[01:38:51] Yeah, I think so. I think it's and I don't know. I think that there could be like a cut version where he does a little bit and then it's like, you know, that's why I'm worried about like

[01:39:01] it not being the full performance or the full go the full way. They have they would they would have announced that they're they're not they're not going to announce it. They didn't announce like Megan the stallion and that would be a

[01:39:12] wrap, you know, verse in the middle of we didn't talk about Bruno. Come on now. Like you're putting way too much trust in the producers of the Academy Awards. You're putting way too much trust in these people that have

[01:39:26] screwed this up over the many, many years of having a category like this and having to try to create a moment. We knew Bruno was was being performed. That was not. Yeah, we know we didn't know that there would be like that in the middle of it.

[01:39:41] And it would be like a really bad version of a song that was very simple to just do. And I think Gosling has fun with this song in another way. I hope so. The other ones that he you know, he's with a bunch of other

[01:39:55] people and they did remixes. Actually, the remixes are so funny. Honestly, it would honestly, it would be really, really funny to see like how we've all been kind of predicting that these former winners are going to go present and it's just a bunch

[01:40:08] of like former winners that end up being like kids or something or we haven't heard anything about like the performance itself. That's going to be very lock and key. We haven't heard about if any of the kids from the film or

[01:40:18] me dancers or what it's going to be actually, it might be very, it might be very stripped down. It might he might be dressed up like Lady Gaga last year and doing Home My Hand and and and you know, just saying that

[01:40:29] like cannot happen is what happened to Amy Adams where she had to do stuck out in the middle. Her little happy work song all by herself. That was a nightmare. And you have. Yeah, I you know what? Calling it. That's what they're going to do.

[01:40:44] They're going to put Gosling just by himself center stage. Listen, they there have been. Obviously, very questionable musical number. They're kind of famous for it. They fuck up the fun songs is what I'm saying. They fuck up the fun songs. Rob Lowe is back. Yeah, exactly.

[01:40:59] Rob Lowe is a kindle and put him out there before. Then but then then then we have, you know, Robin Williams, you know, doing Flame Canada and that was a full huge production number. So one of the greatest moments when they get it right.

[01:41:14] They get it really, really right. Yeah, that's why I'm nervous about it. If Ken is not a massive production number like it should be, I think it's going to be pretty disappointing, but I feel like it's going to be. It's going to kick off the show.

[01:41:27] That's going to be able to help bolster Gosling as a performer so that he isn't really just hung out to dry. Yeah. And I think it'll be done early too. Like I think I think it will be the way we kick off the show

[01:41:40] so that we can he can just get it out of the way, rip out the band aid and he can get to his seat because then he. We know Ryan Gosling. He is not one to put the spotlight on himself for something like this.

[01:41:52] So but yeah, it'll be it'll be. It'll be interesting to watch and report back next week on. All right, but we're going with Eilish continuing with film editing anatomy of a fall, the holdovers, killers of the flower moon, Oppenheimer and poor things. Oppenheimer, Jennifer Lane seems.

[01:42:11] Uh, be, uh, be, uh, be. Eric, it's going to win. Yeah, this is an easy win for Oppenheimer. Easy, easy, easy, great win, great win too. And it will be a win. It'll be a great win. And the next one directing feels the same way.

[01:42:33] Jonathan Glazer, the zone of interest, Yorgos Lanthimos, poor things, Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer, Martin Scorsese, killers of the flower moon and Justin, three anatomy of a fall. Ryan, you want to take a chat? Ah, be, ah, be, ah, be. Let's go. No, it'll be a great moment.

[01:42:52] So it's like I said on the, um, on the podcast is this is the sort of coronation of, of who the best filmmaker is currently in Hollywood. And, and they are at the height of their games and the industry

[01:43:07] has fully embraced them and what Eric and I have talked about throughout most of the season. It will be the most fascinating follow up, uh, film in the modern era, probably one of the most fascinating ones since, uh, Titanic to Avatar because you're talking

[01:43:23] about the biggest filmmaker who made the big, one of the biggest hits, who is a brand within himself and, you know, shout out to Universal and to, um, his team and everybody that has really made him accessible and he has really shown to have

[01:43:44] fun talking about this and, and, um, and been very warm and, and Latin, really comedic at times too with that dry sense of humor that he has. He's, he has not shown the internet personality that we think that everybody seems to have where he is this pretentious snob.

[01:44:04] He has had a lot of fun and shown that he is a very funny guy. I mean, like the Colbert thing that he did, what he was doing, like sort of the Benny Hill run around and, and talking about the Fast and Furious

[01:44:15] movies and, you know, the seat, seat chairs and all the, you know, and all these different things like he is, he's done a very good job of presenting himself as not the person that everybody hated during the pandemic because he wanted to attend it in a theater.

[01:44:30] And so alongside also it being some of the best work of his career in a movie that everybody loved, well, mostly everybody loves. And, um, and yeah, it just, it's very James Cameron, very Steven Spilberg in the, in a great way. Eric, you're you concur.

[01:44:53] Yeah, I mean, you can, you can look at my prediction piece on the website. I'm not going to tell you everything you need to know. Truly one of my favorite pieces Eric's ever done on the website is the best director final predictions piece because everything is in there.

[01:45:10] That's all you need to know. Put a lot of thought into it as you, I think it was, you know what? He, you've been in journalism for what 15 plus years. It's your best piece you've ever done. Just gonna say. Yeah.

[01:45:20] And I'm, I'm waiting for the, the, the, the journalism. Feel better to be honest. Why no bell, peace prize. Yeah. All right. And I do think, I do think Spilberg will be the presenter of. Oh man. That's a category. Wow. That would be wonderful. All right.

[01:45:43] Best actor Bradley Cooper, Maestro Coleman, Domingo, Rustin Paul Jamari, the holdovers, Killian Murphy, Oppenheimer and Jeffrey Wright, American fiction. Here we go. Ryan, take it away. Ah, B. Ah, B. Literally. Ah, B. It's going to Killian Murphy. Um, I'm so happy he's winning this award.

[01:46:07] I re, I'm like, this would, this one is going to make me the happiest. I even more than no one because it's such a good performance. It's the type of performance that the Oscars do not celebrate. They do not give.

[01:46:23] It's the type of performance of like last year, like a, like a Colin Farrell, like a Benedict Cumberbatch where there is subtlety in that performance. And it gets big at times, sure. But it is wrapped around subtlety and those close ups and those beautiful

[01:46:41] blue eyes of Killian Murphy. And again, another person that is very like he's very closed off. He's, he's very much an introvert and Downey and Blunt and Nolan alongside him at these Q and A's have made him very approachable.

[01:46:56] And he has been willing to do it all because he loves this director who essentially has given him most of the big roles of his career, including the biggest role of his career outside of Peaky Blinders. And I think that. I mean, it's very rare.

[01:47:14] Eric talked about this. It's very rare in the modern era, the expanded era that we have. The best actor winner correlate with the best picture winner. We've kind of gone away from that. But as we've shown with this movie, history's kind of shown that this

[01:47:27] thing is a little bit bulletproof and people really loved it and embraced it. And it's made by one of the most popular filmmakers of this new generation of this new era. And he's as long as collaborator outside of Michael Cain.

[01:47:42] And he's worked for 20 years and he's, he delivers fantastic work. I love Bradley Cooper. I think Bradley Cooper, I don't get the hate. I think he's phenomenal in Maestro. I think Paul Giamatti is fantastic and could upset.

[01:47:59] He's definitely in the number two because there are a lot of people that want to give Paul Giamatti his flowers. And I love Jeffrey Wright and Coleman Domingo. I'm glad that they were here. But when he won SAG and BAFTA, which were pretty big wins,

[01:48:15] like the BAFTA win was big, but the SAG win, he did not need. I mean, he needed to win that in order to secure it up, but it would have been a nail biter if Giamatti had won.

[01:48:26] Killian Murphy, so, so happy he's going to be an Oscar winner. Eric. Yeah, this is going to be Killian Murphy. He has everything on his side historically and statistically. Oh no, critics choice. We can we can we can go into that detail here.

[01:48:49] I wrote about all of it in my best actor piece that. Yeah, it's so just briefly from one of the parts. Killian Murphy is the titular role in Oppenheimer. He's in nearly every frame of the film. He is the film. It's it's it's impossible.

[01:49:16] There really the side story with Robert Denny, Jr. is its own thing. But in in these three hours, you are hyper focused on Murphy. And again, close ups face is doing face acting. I'm personally and we'll get this into this into best actress too,

[01:49:41] I think I'm personally kind of excited about the idea of the Academy. Who loves, loves, loves big acting and I love big acting too. Fucking the winner last year. Good little literal big acting is going to find a place for for subtlety.

[01:50:05] I think it's I think it's remarkable and and and I'm glad I do. I do like it when the Academy allows us to be surprised so that we can't always predict where they're going to go because we usually do it in a pretty negative way.

[01:50:25] You know, like, oh, well, of course, they're going to go with this performance because it's the biggest and the loudest or whatever it is. And I mean, ironically, I think the biggest and loudest performance nominated is here is the one that should win. That's a personal preference.

[01:50:40] I think I think Cooper should win. But he he really kind of I don't know what happened there and a torpedoed himself here. But but even even if he if he hadn't he was not going to be able to catch up to what

[01:51:02] Paul Giamatti and Killian Murphy had already done through critics season. And they were really kind of neck and neck and it was a fun race to watch. There it was Paul with the win. It was kind of cool.

[01:51:16] Well, it was it was really that that that critics choice win kind of made people, unfortunately, take it way too seriously. Yeah. That it was more than than what it was. But what was the in and out burger and all that? Yeah, that was fun.

[01:51:33] That was cool. That was that was, you know, kind of warming people up to him as a as a speech giver. And that was that was kind of cool. One of the things I've really enjoyed about Murphy this season is that he is a shy person,

[01:51:54] not gregarious about a war season. He's the very much the the anti Bradley Cooper. He's the anti Brendan Frazier, where he's going to blubber all over the place. Sure. And that that that has appealed to two voters in a way that doesn't always happen.

[01:52:12] So I think it's great. I'm going with Killian, too. So also, Christina, for the record, I just want to put this out there. If you have any academy listeners or any actors that do want to win, including Bradley Cooper, if you want to win best actor

[01:52:30] you must speak up now, Ryan. You must speak to Ryan McQuade at a Words Watch because if you don't have your interview on the record during the season, it won't happen because last year I talked to Brendan Frazier, won an Oscar, Dr.

[01:52:44] Killian Murphy is about to win his just saying the train for best actor comes through Awards Watch to Ryan McQuade just saying was putting out there. Didn't get to say that on our show. Just just just putting it out there. They hear you.

[01:53:00] Who doesn't love a little bit of self promotion? Yeah, I'm just saying and you can find those interviews at AwardsWatch.com. Bradley Cooper and Bradley Cooper. Yeah, Bradley, come talk to us about being in the shower with your dad. It's fine. We'll edit it all out. It's fine.

[01:53:16] All right, best actress, probably best to move on. Annette Benning, Nia Lulie Gladstone, killer to the flower moon, Sandra Hewler, anatomy of a fall, Carrie Mulligan, Maestro and Emma Stone, poor things. The Battle of the Stones here. Although I'm leaning towards Lily Gladstone

[01:53:35] personally, I think that in terms of what we were talking about at the top of the show, speeches and and now listening to you, Eric, talk about subtle performances. I mean, talk about an amazing subtle performance where you read everything in her face in her small movements.

[01:53:56] And I mean, she's basically going through one of the most horrific arcs but in a completely subtle way. So I think it's a terrific job and I see her winning as his. And of course, it's a historic win.

[01:54:10] And I just think that that's what people want and me too. I think it would be amazing. Yeah, I mean, I'm a stone. I think she's great just to I mean, she does. I do too. Masterful jobs. I like all of them, even even in that

[01:54:24] bending, who I think is that shit crazy in Nayaad. But she swam to the Taj Mahaa. But I love her. Um, as of like this recording, I haven't written my best actress piece. I'm I haven't even started it, which is I'm so struggling.

[01:54:42] But I I feel mostly comfortable in my choice of who I think is going to win. I do think it is going to be Gladstone as well. Um, I think she is. Up against some possible obstacles that have felled.

[01:55:04] Well, one actress before, but like Murphy, the the the sag win was was crucial. It really had to happen without it. There would really not be a path for her Gladstone here. Um, and I mean, historically winning the sag is that will really,

[01:55:27] really kind of lock you in. Um, the only examples we really have are Glenn Close and Viola Davis twice, which is certainly something to think about because obviously we are these are women of color. When we're talking about Gladstone and Davis, Davis's first loss for the help.

[01:55:58] I think some people can make certain illusions to supporting versus lead in terms of performances. Um, and and might vote that way. But I don't know. I also don't see this as Cape Lange versus Michelle Yeo last year. I don't see it as the same.

[01:56:29] Um, I knew that would be a very quick comparison that people would want to make or need to make again, people kind of need to make connections so that they can feel comfortable about a prediction, which is fair. It's understandable. I use history.

[01:56:47] I use what I feel is passion. I get it. Um, I just feel that Gladstone has momentum. I will make one comparison and that is that Emma Stone has sort of adopted the Cape Lange at why me with speeches, which is like really allows voters

[01:57:16] to be like, all right, you're happy. Let's why you why you indeed. Why do you? So yeah, don't let us get in your way. Thank you. Exactly. Um, are you on the same page? You're I actually talked to Eric about this yesterday on the phone because I

[01:57:38] feel like Meryl Streep at the end of doubt. I have doubts. Um, I don't, I don't think this is locked up and I know I didn't say this on the, on the awards watch podcast, but I guess I'm just spilling my thoughts out on Christina's today.

[01:57:54] I don't, I don't, that's true. You do. Yeah. Um, I don't know if it's all the way done yet. And I don't think that it is as easy of saying that it's just between two people in terms of the amount of votes that they're going to get.

[01:58:12] I do think that there is a lot of passion for Sonny Schrohuler and anatomy of a fault. Now I do not think that that passion could equal a win, but I think that passion could potentially take from a bank of votes that could go to

[01:58:33] either Emma Stone or Lily Gladstone. You have Huller who is mostly a recent discovery for a film that is very popular and is most likely going to win an award here for a screenplay category, which is big and the predominant reason why it's going to win.

[01:58:52] And the number one clip that has shown is Son Trahuller going full force against that husband who she may or probably did push off that, you know, that balcony and that's big. Yeah. Now, or maybe she didn't, I don't know if she didn't need deserved it.

[01:59:12] Um, we'll say that. If she didn't do it, I would. I would be like, girl, I'm right behind you. Um, but and I think that, you know, obviously the international votes big. You look at BAFTA, they gave it to Emma Stone. They love poor things.

[01:59:32] They loved anatomy of a fall. Um, Lily Gladstone was not nominated at BAFTA. So her sag win is huge because she needed that to stay in the race. And it was also the last teleguys televised, uh, speech in the category.

[01:59:48] It was also the last, you know, televised event while voting was going on. Speech was a great speech. Um, and also the enthusiasm of stone going back to what Eric was saying about Cape Lynchette, uh, comparison with Tar and Michelle. Yo, it's like, yeah, okay.

[02:00:05] I'm so happy that she's winning. Same with Mulligan and Robbie and everybody else, uh, there on the night. She was the only one to get a standing ovation in the room for their win. Not even Oppenheimer got that. Um, but I do think people really love Sandra Huler.

[02:00:21] And I think that the Sandra Hula voters for the most part do take a little bit of a way from the batch that would vote for Emma Stone and that type of performance internationally speaking. And I think that Lily Gladstone, there is significance.

[02:00:41] I think her having a, uh, conversation with Cape Lynchette drop, um, during voting, a 30 minute conversation. I think Sophia pointed this one out and I saw it online too. Sophia Simnella pointing out the Kate Winslet, um, uh, uh, what a quote that

[02:01:00] she had on the red carpet, uh, about how stunned she was by this performance. Um, I think there's a lot to go there. And again, you may not like killers of the flower moon. You may think that it's too long or Leo's doing too much French five

[02:01:15] potatoes in his performance or, you know, you just might not like it in general of where the focus is of the overall film, the adaptation. But the number one thing everyone says that is unanimous about killers of the flower moon is how extraordinary Lily Gladstone has.

[02:01:33] And so that's why I think while there's not passion for killers of the flower moon, there is definitely passion for Lily Gladstone. And I think it showed from, from Gotham with her having two speeches that night, uh, her indie spirit, um, you know, honorary win and presenting

[02:01:52] to Kelly Reichard, um, to being there with Marty at various places, including being front and stage at SAG and winning that, winning at, uh, at the Golden Globes, she's been everywhere. She's been on, on frame of mind the entire time she's run a hell of a campaign.

[02:02:08] Um, I'm going with Lily Gladstone, but this is, is, this is very close because I that performance Emma Stone gives is the typical type of performance that they love. And if they give an award to somebody at a second time, it's not too

[02:02:26] far after when they given them their first. Um, and so I'm going with Gladstone still, but it is actually a lot closer than when we talked about it a week ago. And it's the, actually the one category I'm still the most conflicted on

[02:02:45] because if they were all together at BAFTA and it had gone to Emma Stone, I don't know what I go with Emma Stone there. They didn't save her. They obviously didn't like the movie. I don't know.

[02:02:58] There's a lot to consider, but, um, Gladstone's win in speech would be a moment. And that's something to consider, I think as well with voters as well too, when they're doing their final voting. All right, Ryan, get ready for a final chant.

[02:03:16] Um, best picture, American fiction, anatomy of a fall Barbie, the holdovers, killers of the fire, moon, maestro, open high, Oppenheimer past lives, poor things and the zone of interest. Take it away. Ah, be, ah, be, ah, be. Yes. This is just locked every way. It was locked.

[02:03:37] I was excited about seeing Emma Thomas take the stage. It was locked. His passionate wife. Six months ago when I said it was locked and it is even more locked in. I'm so excited for Emma Thomas to go up on that stage and who has been one

[02:03:54] of the great producers that we've had, um, in, in modern Hollywood and a force and, um, you know, the Alma to his Reynolds, um, and curating and producing Nolan's films. I mean, if he's a little bit of a prick, he's probably gotten sick a couple of times.

[02:04:16] I mean, his, his family did call him Reynolds Woodcock a lot in 2017 when that movie came out. Um, I think that's, I think it is such, um, an interesting tale of this movie getting made going from universal to Warner Brothers.

[02:04:35] Um, the, the, the achievement that it is from someone on this podcast, giving it the, uh, on a, on a movie, on a summer movie draft, someone came up with the, uh, the title of flopping Heimer because he thought that it was

[02:04:52] going to flop at the box office. And boy, howdy does he look dumb in this movie, making nearly a billion dollars being one of the best reviewed films of the year. It is a modern masterpiece and it will be one of the great winners

[02:05:09] that we've had in a long, long time. It's a return to form for what we've heard a lot of people wanting to celebrate, which is an epic. Um, I think that, um, it's, it's been undeniable and it's kind of crazy.

[02:05:25] You know, Eric brought up that, you know, it's, it's kind of been bulletproof. Um, and, and everything. I remember when at first, when we were first hearing the rubblings of after screenings and people were sat in their seats and they were

[02:05:38] shocked and kind of shook and, you know, they were not getting up and it was like a jolt to the system. And I think that's why people went back and back and back and back to the theaters because it was such a different theatrical experience.

[02:05:54] Even here, Bob Iger talking about how Disney needs to start making more movies now that are like that to make an audience feel something. And only somebody like Christopher Nolan is able to make a three hour biopic

[02:06:07] feel so urgent and move at such a confident pace with this wonderful cast and then tech, you know, technicals that have been some of the best of the year. It's very deserving. It's one of the it's my favorite film of the year was for a long, long time.

[02:06:21] And it's my first favorite film of the year winning best picture since Moonlight. And, um, and I'm so happy and that it that it worked out that way. And, um, and I'm sure it won't happen for another 10, 15 years because that's how it usually works.

[02:06:40] But it kind of just all lined up perfectly for it. And the other films had either not enough support or just never picked up the traction. And I don't think that there was ever like it was weird.

[02:06:52] Eric and I were there the night of the globes, um, in Los Angeles from that moment on it just kind of which is usually what we don't do in a race, right? Where we're like, yeah, it's pretty much done. Eric and I Eric looked at me.

[02:07:05] He's like, I think it's done. And I was kind of wild. And then I had people tell me, oh, it's not going to get support in the guilds and da, da, da, da, da. Well, they're wrong because it's one pretty much every guild under the sun.

[02:07:19] So it's a great movie. Is it is it flawed? Sure. Is every movie flawed? Sure. But I think it's I think it's wonderful. And, uh, and I think it's a great win. And it's a lot better wins than the coders and the green books and the crap

[02:07:32] that we've been getting over the last couple of years or back into good movies, winning best picture again. Feels great. Eric, after that, great movies. Sorry, not good movies, great movies. Oh, my goodness. All right. Just to remember. Jesus. Yeah.

[02:07:55] I mean, obviously I think that, uh, uh, past lives is winning this, uh, in a walk. Past lives, the movie he didn't even think we'd get nominated for best picture as a couple of points in the season. In 10th place. Yeah. No, that's my stroke.

[02:08:10] That might just be 10th place. Maybe. Honestly. Like every year. I don't know. Uh, now this is a, this is it's going to be kind of a wild win. The, the path for this has been extremely non-traditional. Yeah.

[02:08:27] You know, a summer movie with no festival release, you know, that's that's going to be the first since the departed. Uh, that's super cool. The depatted. The depatted. Um, but I think the, I think the bigger thing that we will look at this

[02:08:47] season in retrospect and we can look at right now is, is that it was able to completely sidestep the curse of the front runner, um, at every possible chance. And the reason for that, I think is that when something is a front runner and

[02:09:08] it has even like a modicum of coldness or anything that you could start chipping away at, uh, then that starts happening and, and you can start looking at what the alternatives are. And that never happened for Oppenheimer.

[02:09:31] Again, anytime somebody wants to talk about a controversy, they're so online about it. Yeah. That it's not real. Every single thing that happened with Green Book stayed and was only cared about online voters did not give a shit. At all.

[02:09:57] But what happened in that case and in the power of the dogs case, which sidebar, you cannot, uh, not talk about both of them being, uh, Netflix films and that being a very real stigma that still exists with voters. Correct.

[02:10:16] Um, is that each of those films had enough of that coldness to be able to start looking outside? And that's when it's why, that's why we have two phases of Oscar season. We have phase one and we have phase two.

[02:10:37] And in phase one, you know, Roma and power of the dog absolutely dominated, dominated critics wins, uh, you know, BAFTA total number of nominations, all that absolutely just dominated. The nominations came out and we got to phase two and the tide had already begun to be turned.

[02:11:05] And then it became very easy to focus on other films, other performances, casts and what that was going to look like. Um, and that I don't want to go much more into that because we've talked about those seasons many, many times.

[02:11:26] So that brings us to, to this year where we had, you know, the role, the fun of Barbie and Oppenheimer, you know, going up against each other the same day, both being super successful. And I think we thought that they would sort of be carrying each other

[02:11:43] and, and be running parallel through award season, which did not really happen. Um, but at the same time, even when you, even if you wanted to look at what the alternative, traditional alternative to the front runner would be,

[02:12:05] uh, you know, since the expanded lineup and, and, and how voters, uh, start pushing back against the front runner, it'd be American fiction and the holdovers quite easily. Those are perfect examples of the kind of things that would be like,

[02:12:20] Oh, a best picture win and a screenplay win and an acting win. And that's, that's there you go. There's a great recipe right there. The difference between those other years, because that also includes the moonlight here. Um, and this year is that both the holdovers in American fiction

[02:12:42] occupied exactly the same space as a possible alternative. So there wasn't really a singular choice that anyone that was going to try and, you know, post any type of anti-thoppin'-amers sentiment could really, really go to realistically. I mean, I bounced back and forth between those two as

[02:13:05] possible's all fall season. And then it's just like, if you have to do that, then neither of them are the choice. Yep. Um, and then the other thing was that there just wasn't anything that even some people tried to stick with Hoppinheimer.

[02:13:26] Uh, like, why didn't you show the bombs? Again, a very, very specifically online debate that you know, one else cared about. I mean, the bomb, the female characters, the last hour of the film, the links, the, you know, the, all this stuff, all the stuff that people

[02:13:46] complained about didn't matter because one of those female nominee got nominated, the script got nominated. You know, the, you know, you can say those as criticisms of why you didn't like the film, but the Academy didn't care. They made their, they made, I mean, it's the most

[02:14:01] nominated film on the day, on nomination day. And it helped that Emily Blunt was part of Robert Downey Jr. and Killian Murphy. You know, our own Kevin Lee brought up a point of like, who is the cast or who are the people that they want that voters are

[02:14:18] going to want to hang out with and meet this season? And it ended up being the Hoppin homies. It ended up being like there was a party in LA after the globes. It was one of the most like in demand tickets to go to was the

[02:14:31] Oppenheimer Universal Party. People wanted to go to the, they were still going to those screenings every single week when Downey and Murphy and Blunt and Nolan were a part of all that. They, this movie, you know, it's different also too, because this movie made nearly a billion dollars.

[02:14:52] It is as traditional of an old winner as we've ever seen, but to even a bigger extent, because it's one of the most financially successful films to ever win best picture ever in the month, not just the modern era ever. And it is popular. People love this movie.

[02:15:14] People love Christopher Nolan. He is a director of a generation. He is just like Jim Carman, just like Steven Spielberg. The, and the voters that grew up with the dark night 15 years ago, that changed all the rules of where we're at now have grown up with this director.

[02:15:33] And now they are at the place where the serious drama that is a three hour epic is made by the guy that made their Batman and in in inception movies. And those types of voters remember, you know, remember those theater going experience.

[02:15:51] It was an event you had to see the film in IMAX. You had to see it a certain way and it, you know, and there's a lot of people in the industry that love the idea of him also

[02:16:03] being someone that is a preserver of cinema like a Scorsese, like a Spielberg. I mean him investing with all those other directors along with Emma Thomas's wife in, in the preservation of one of the theaters out in in LA. His talk obsessively about celluloid and like you were

[02:16:27] mentioning with Hoyt to Eric reinventing new lenses for, for the IMAX cameras and being the forward person. I thought about it this past week of Denis Villeneuve is using Christopher Nolan in the marketing campaign to get people to go see Dune 2 and IMAX. That's power.

[02:16:48] If there ever was one in this industry and he's a guy that I mean, we all very questionably and rightfully so questioned why tenant win the theaters. It's still made over 300 million dollars without vaccines. It's it's kind of astonishing and it was irresponsible for sure.

[02:17:08] But he is it all kind of just added up and yeah, I mean like killers of the flower moon had its controversies and but people just didn't respond to it. People didn't respond to Maestro poor things is too out there.

[02:17:25] Anatomy and zone have their their fans but not enough to get it over the top like a parasite. American fictions and holdovers sort of eat from the same table. Barbie was never really the big awards contender that people wanted it to be.

[02:17:40] That is an online thing and it it's one of those kind of like Top Gun Maverickie things where its box office success and being the number one film of the year at the box office does not mean it will translate over to being the number one film

[02:17:54] at the Oscars and important and past lives. I mean, that like Eric was joking about it's probably 9th or 10th and I'm very happy that it got in because it's a wonderful film. But when yeah, when we just started looking at the year

[02:18:09] I mean it's a there's not really anybody bad on that team that you could be like why wouldn't you want that team to win Oscars and why wouldn't you want that film to do it? And I mean, we went to events and talk to people and it was

[02:18:24] still one of their favorite films of the year. So just easy but Christina, do you think it's going to win? Absolutely. After I have no doubt it's I think we almost forgot this is Christina's podcast. Yeah, what are we doing? These were the best speeches of the night.

[02:18:46] No, absolutely. I think it's going to win. I have no doubts and as you said, we've been feeling that since this summer and it's been as bulletproof. Absolutely. There's been no no ensuade in any direction regarding this film.

[02:19:01] Many other categories, maybe, but not not in terms of best picture. Yeah, and it would be interesting to I mean, I wonder how the strike played into it a little bit. The Warner Brothers being a villain because of Zaslaw, Netflix and Serendos.

[02:19:17] I know that Universal is a big studio. But exceedingly when we were hearing a lot of pushback from the studios in terms of making these deals. It was from those two ding dongs the entire time. I don't know how much that played into it as well as also,

[02:19:35] you know, this was one of the last movies released before the strike and people saw it for an entire summer and just kept going back and back and back and its success. At the box office is is is the the box office success of the year

[02:19:54] because you know, you're telling me a three hour bio pic with half of it in black and white is going to make nearly a billion dollars and people are going to want to keep going back to that it's specifically in I'm X screenings.

[02:20:08] And now I tell you you're you're crazy, but it happened. And I hope more directors get to make their Oppenheimers and get the studio resources. And I mean, to think that Oppenheimer and Barbie were made for the same amount of money as Dune, you know, part two

[02:20:28] is kind of crazy because both films are better than do part two. And but I think that that's it's going to be interesting to see what Nolan does in the future because he can do whatever the hell he wants and and everything.

[02:20:44] And he'll be the most and he might work with Warner Brothers again or with Universal and hats off to Universal for having this but then also with focus features, having the holdovers and having a really good campaign. I mean, to give us that 4K

[02:21:00] Blu-ray for the for the critics, critics, Choice and the vinyl and everything like they knew what they were doing. They they played it very, very smart after not after very much fumbling last year with the with the fablements. And it just goes to show every season is different.

[02:21:18] On that note, this let's see what happens. I was so exciting to talk to you. We only have a few days left. Listeners, go to awards watch dot com for the best analysis by Eric. Apparently the interviews that for the winners next year,

[02:21:35] you can catch Ryan doing you want to win best actor. Give me a call. Lots of great interviews and everything else. It's your source to go to. And thank you so much for always coming on my show. Thank you for having us, Christina.

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