Pahalgam attack: Will India and Pakistan cross the line again? | Ep 154

[00:00:00] - [Speaker 0]
On April 22, the picturesque town of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir became the backdrop for one of the deadliest terror attacks India has witnessed in recent years, claiming the lives of 26 innocent civilians. The scale and brazenness of the attack is perhaps even greater than the twenty nineteen Pulwama bombing and the twenty sixteen Yuri attack, both of which triggered major military escalations. And the brutal strike has once again reignited dangerous and family tensions along the India Pakistan border. As New Delhi vows retribution and Islamabad denies any involvement, the world is watching closely. Hi and welcome to Newsbreak on Manurama's Explainer Podcast.

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I am Haritha Benjamin and in today's episode we examine the wider implications of the Pahalgam attack. Not just as an isolated act of terror but a potential flashpoint in the fragile and often volatile relationship between two nuclear armed neighbors. What does this mean for regional stability? How is the international community responding? And what could lie ahead if diplomacy fails.

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Joining us today is Doctor. Suresh Rangarajan, Professor and Head of the Department of International Relations and Politics at the Central University of Kerala in Kasagrod. Thank you so much for joining us today, sir.

[00:01:44] - [Speaker 1]
Thank you.

[00:01:44] - [Speaker 0]
So, sir, the conflict between India and Pakistan is far from new. But let's focus on this recent attack for which the responsibility has been claimed by the resistance front, which is a group, which is linked to the Lashkuri Taibah or the LET. So a 2023 notification from the Ministry of Home Affairs has noted that the TRF was emerging after, the revocation of the Jammu and Kashmir special status. And the MHA circular, in fact, also noted on its tactics and affiliations. So given that the government already knew about it, how did such an attack of a massive scale happen in a popular tourist destination?

[00:02:24] - [Speaker 0]
So could you actually label it as a lapse in intelligence or security? What is your take on that?

[00:02:31] - [Speaker 1]
So exactly, it is a lapse on the part of the intelligence and security because this area is being overcrowded, and the at the time of this attack, there were more number of people. Generally, this area is prone to such kind of attack. So the the intelligence agency could have made a survey along that particular place, or at least they could have monitored that particular place where the so much of tourists gathered. So, generally, as a person who observed the things closely, so we can say that it is a failure on the part of the intelligence agency as well as security agencies. They could have monitored that particular rating.

[00:03:25] - [Speaker 0]
Right. So now let's talk about the India's retaliatory steps. So we know about the visa restrictions, the closure of the Adhari Vaga border, the suspension of Indus water treaty, and the reduction of diplomatic stuff. So how effective are these measures in signaling that India actually means business? And, you know, it's something to be feared off.

[00:03:49] - [Speaker 1]
Exactly. It is though many people see that it is a symbolic one, but at the same time, the suspension of India's water treaty, that is going to harm the already collapsed Pakistan economy because, especially, Pakistan part of Punjab depends on the water from particular Indus River water treaty, and based on that, they are gaining their agriculture is fully dependent on that. So in that sense, it is going to to hurt the already collapsed Pakistan economy. But regarding other things that diplomatic downsides or other closing of the Wagah border and all, that is that, of course, you can put it in the category of symbolic gesture on the part of India Right. As a retaliatory step to satisfy the domestic audience.

[00:04:48] - [Speaker 0]
Right. So now, if you're looking at Pakistan's, you know, response to India's retaliatory steps, we see that, you know, they've suspended the visas of Indian nationals, closed its airspace for Indian flights, and even suspended the 1972 Schimler agreement. So what do these moves signal from their part? And what are the implications of suspending the Shimla agreement in particular? So I think that is something which everyone is concerned about.

[00:05:14] - [Speaker 1]
Exactly. You see, suspension of this particular Shimla agreement, it is going to harm Pakistan itself because Right. In the Shimla agreement is one which they talk about Pacific settlement of all dispute through bilateral means or through a mutually negotiated way to resolve the outstanding issues. And, also, it there is a provision for protecting the territorial integrity and soaring the these two nations. And the suspension of that particular treaty is I think that it is a mistake on the part of Pakistan.

[00:05:55] - [Speaker 1]
There again, of course, in democratic countries, this is one way of pacifying the public. So maybe because of that, they might have taken the that decision. But closing the airspace again, it is going to affect our airline service because it may be little more expensive for them to take a different air route. That, again, of course, it is not going to directly beneficial to Pakistan. So I think that whatever retaliatory step that they have taken, that is more in terms of emotional decision rather than rational mode.

[00:06:42] - [Speaker 0]
Right. Right. Okay. So now if you're looking at the military angle, there hasn't been any steps except the crossfiring at the LOC and international along the international border. So everyone is expecting something to happen sooner or later.

[00:06:57] - [Speaker 0]
So in 02/2016, we all know that the Indian army commandos actually carried out surgical strikes across the LOC after the URI attack. In 02/2019, again, after the Pulwama episode, the Indian air force bombed JEM's training camp in Balakot. So could India be planning a similar operation right now? What could be the course they are, you know, deciding to pursue? And Pakistan has already claimed that it has credible intelligence that an imminent Indian military response would come up.

[00:07:29] - [Speaker 0]
So could you elaborate on that? And while you're at it, could you also tell how India's military preparedness has grown since, you know, the last major attack, say, you know, two in 02/2019?

[00:07:42] - [Speaker 1]
Yep. Of course. I don't think that this time India would be more cautious than the earlier occasion because Pakistan has got enough time to take the precautionary steps, and they might have moved their terrorist camps from the border area to some of the civilian area. Right. So that if India yeah.

[00:08:06] - [Speaker 1]
If India unleash an attack on Pakistan, then the civilian population gets affected. So I don't think that India would precipitate a war with Pakistan as our prime minister time and again involved in negotiating the Russia Ukraine war, and so there itself, we had made it very clear that in this twenty first century, war is not a solution. So I don't think that, and moreover, the lesson we have learned from Russia Ukraine war again, it is going on even after three years. They are fighting. Yeah.

[00:08:44] - [Speaker 1]
So no solution is at site. So war is not a solution. So in that case, of course, being a democratic country, it would be very difficult to convince the people that a full scale war. Yeah. But, of course, some just like the earlier occasion, India would wait for an opportune time, and India would hit hard in the terrorist facilities in in and around Pakistan.

[00:09:14] - [Speaker 1]
And now we have all these sophisticated weapons, including the missile system and the supersonic power. We can use it, and we have the wherewithal and also the technology. With that, we can go for a precision attack on some terrorist camps. But, of course, they have already moved it to civilian area. But, again, of course, that is what I feel that India would wait for some more time and then when an opportune time comes, then India, of course, unleash a kind of

[00:09:51] - [Speaker 0]
stomachs probably, right?

[00:09:52] - [Speaker 1]
Yeah. So here in one more thing is there. See, actually, it is the army of Pakistan and the puppet government that which is being supported by the armed forces and also the religious fundamentalists. They are involved in that. The people of Pakistan are innocent.

[00:10:10] - [Speaker 1]
So they are no way substantiating or supporting the Pakistan policy of terrorism as an instrument of their foreign policy. So they are not supporting. So that fact, we all know that. So I don't think that India would take care of full full scale war with Pakistan in this time.

[00:10:29] - [Speaker 0]
Okay. So now let's talk about the international response. So The US has urged both the countries to deescalate. But if tensions were to spiral into a full scale conflict, how do you think the current Trump administration would react?

[00:10:45] - [Speaker 1]
The US, again, is more involved in this. They they they are especially the Trump administration is more interested in trade relations. So US relation is especially in various areas, the defense and security and also trade, we have very good relation, and we also have through Indo Pacific and through Cord also, we have a very close connectivity. So I don't think that US would support any country other than India. Of course, if you look back into earlier history, of course, Pakistan was the frontline state when the Soviet Union invited Afghanistan in 1979.

[00:11:31] - [Speaker 1]
There, of course, US was supporting Pakistan, but in this present scenario, I don't think that US would extend any support to Pakistan. That has been made it very clear by The US President in his presidential statement that US is not going to support, and US has also condemned the attack. And same is the case with Saudi Arabia and many other countries except Turkey. And, of course, Turkey also, of course, they condemn the civil year killing, but China and Turkey is the only exception. All other countries are with India, including Russia.

[00:12:13] - [Speaker 0]
Yeah. Okay. So now you were speaking about China, and Beijing has traditionally banned Pakistan in such crisis. But given its economic contest now with US and the Trump tariffs, and can it really afford the instability in South Asia right now? So what could be, you know, China's role in making sure that, you know, it does not blow up into a full fledged war?

[00:12:36] - [Speaker 0]
So what is your take on that?

[00:12:37] - [Speaker 1]
Yeah. You are absolutely right that we're looking into India, China, trade, and the existing situation and the global trade, of course, the tariff imposed on China and all. China is undergoing a lot of pressure from that that particular decision of The US, and India, China trade relation, it accounts to nearly a hundred and 30,000,000,000 US dollars, and the trade deficit of India is nearly a hundred billion. Yeah. So China won't take a stand which is totally against India.

[00:13:18] - [Speaker 1]
Right. Of course, they you know, and Pakistan are close friends, and, of course, China is always supporting them. But at the same time, China at this point of time, China may not take a decision which would affect their trade relation with India.

[00:13:38] - [Speaker 0]
Right. So now you also spoke about, you know, Turkey and Afghanistan. So the regional landscape has actually significantly shifted, right, in the past decade. So the Taliban led government in Afghanistan has actually condemned the attack. And Turkey also issued a condemnation, though India remains wary of its alignment given its historical proximity to Pakistan.

[00:14:01] - [Speaker 0]
India's outreach to Afghanistan and, you know, the vocal support from other states like UK and the quiet backing from Gulf powers like Saudi Arabia and Qatar suggest a broader diplomatic support from other nations, right, from the Middle East and Central Asia. So does this signal that, you know, India is headed for a diplomatic win when it comes to, you know, issues like this? And is it also part of a groundwork which is being laid for a more decisive and possibly deadly military response? What do you think about that?

[00:14:34] - [Speaker 1]
It's absolutely you are right in saying that, see, Pakistan being isolated, including their close friends in and around region. Yeah. Also, see, this is no country would support terrorism, but everybody knows that the epicenter of terrorism is Pakistan. So that is one reason that all the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and then, of course, European countries, they are all in favor of India because international terrorism is a major threat to international peace and security. That everyone knows that, including developed and developing countries face this issue because there is lot of uncertainty in that.

[00:15:18] - [Speaker 1]
If there is a traditional war like fighting between two nation, there is something one can expect that the military is involved, and there would be no civilian casualty. But when the terrorist target, the the civilian are the more affected people. So, naturally, they won't support terrorism. So I think that in this particular period, Pakistan is being isolated. So slowly, but it may take time because the Pakistan economy is based on illegal trade and this kind of terrorism, exporting, and all this.

[00:15:53] - [Speaker 1]
So I think that it may take time, but once they may move into that direction in an accelerated pace.

[00:16:01] - [Speaker 0]
Okay. Right. So now if you're looking at the United Nations, India has taken a very, you know, strong stance in the UN, unlike, you know, earlier. So what does this tone indicate? It actually severely, you know, slammed the Pakistan Minister for admitting that, you know, there has been sponsored terror which has been taking place in Pakistan for decades.

[00:16:23] - [Speaker 0]
So what do you think the tone of UN of India in UN indicates?

[00:16:29] - [Speaker 1]
No. Of course, India, as I said earlier that, of course, in this particular period of global politics, so there, of course, India is being supported by everyone, especially UN is also confronted with this issue in several parts with the terrorism. So, naturally, UN has taken a strong stand, and that is so what India speak in UN forums that very much in tune with what way that UN is moving. So that is why India is more assertive in all the international platform because that is troublesome is one of the common problem of every nation. So without exception, even many developing countries are also facing this problem, including our immediate neighbors.

[00:17:23] - [Speaker 1]
So that is why when an international issue comes and so that way it it again support India's viewpoint because India had a long history of taking a strong stand against terrorism. Whatever kinds or whatever means that they are using, we are against that. And even in the UN also, we were strongly supporting to define terrorism. But unfortunately, the UN has taken several initiative to define terrorism, but it was not able to define terrorism, maybe because of different perspectives on this violence involved. So in that case, of course, India had taken such a stand in the UN, and it was very supportive from other members of the UN, mainly because this India is speaking the same voice as that of the UN's purpose and principles, which stands for.

[00:18:25] - [Speaker 0]
Right. So now moving forward, we know that, you know, there could be a surgical strike immediately from India as a response. But otherwise, if you're looking at the long run, how do you think, you know, India and Pakistan relations would shape up in the future? What could be the way forward to end this or at least, you know, minimize the rivalry between these two states?

[00:18:48] - [Speaker 1]
The only solution which is possible is that if Pakistan get a true democracy, that means if the army and the fundamentalist elements were excluded from decision making. So I think that it is in the future, it is going to happen because people, the ordinary people, the citizens of Pakistan, they are also being affected with the involvement of Pakistan in international terrorism. So that is one reason that Pakistan has been put in the category of a failed state.

[00:19:25] - [Speaker 0]
Right.

[00:19:26] - [Speaker 1]
So their their economy has failed, their law and order situation is paid, there are internal issues which are very much burning issues before the Pakistan authorities. So this is a kind of of course, Pakistan is taking a diversionary tactics by doing this kind of things, but I don't think that in the long run, this diversionary tactics would be very effective. So in the long run, I maybe in another three to four years, Pakistan's domestic system would go for a radical change because already their popular leaders are in prison. So how long they can do all this to an authoritarian means it is for a limited period only. They can survive.

[00:20:15] - [Speaker 1]
In the long run, of course, if Pakistan get a very democratic and popular government, then, of course, the influence of defense forces and these radical elements, religious fundamentalists, that would diminish. So once it is done, then Pakistan become a democratic country like India, then, of course, they would sort out all the issues because no other countries in the world have such a similarity, like culturally or traditionally or because both of both India and Pakistan were under the British rule for more than two hundred years. So such a great similarity is there between the two countries. And the people of Pakistan, and I'm talking about the ordinary people who are there, they are being affected by the collapse of the economy. Pakistan is now at present.

[00:21:03] - [Speaker 1]
It is being controlled by top level elite group. So they once the power transfer from that elite group to that of a true democratic way, then, of course, all this issue would be resolved amicably.

[00:21:18] - [Speaker 0]
Right. So I think with that, we can wind up today's podcast. So thank you so much, doctor Suresh, for joining us today. This is on Manorama's news break and explainer podcast produced by Harita Benjamin. That's me.

[00:21:33] - [Speaker 0]
It airs every week and is available on all podcast platforms. So do follow on Manorama.com for more updates.