Kerala Byelections: Congress reigns, CPM retains, BJP rues | Ep 132

[00:00:00] If the Bipole campaign in Kerala was all about twist, the results day of Kerala Bipoles was not as eventful as one expected. Congress ran over BJP in Palakart, Priyanka Gandhi's majority grossed 4 lakhs in Vyanat and Chela Kira provided the much needed boost for the CPM.

[00:00:17] Hello and welcome to News Break. This is your host Ashwin J. Kumar and today we decipher key factors which determine the results of Kerala Bipoles. We are joined by our reporters Ayyappan, George and Ragesh.

[00:00:34] So let's start with Palakart. Ragesh, what went right for Congress and what went horribly wrong for BJP because BJP has lost so much in municipality boots in Palakart. I think they will have to do a lot of explaining.

[00:00:50] Tell us about what happened in Palakart. Ragesh, what happened in Palakart?

[00:00:53] We should start any discussion on Palakart assembly election or Palakart Bipole on the basic premise that Palakart has been a stronghold or Palakart has been a UDF stronghold for the past several elections.

[00:01:09] But still this particular Bipole was politically crucial or politically significant for the Congress.

[00:01:17] Like we all know due to what happened in 2021. After Shafi Parambil's comfortable victory in the two previous polls which was in 2011 and 2016, in 2021 the Congress had to face a very tough fight from the BJP as they fielded none other than Metrom and East Raiderin from the constituency.

[00:01:43] We all remember what a sort of thriller it was in Palakart.

[00:01:49] We all remember that 2021 assembly polls in Palakart and by the end of the day Shafi managed to scrape through with a margin which was less than 4000 votes.

[00:01:59] And that particular election which made a lot of difference in the political scenario in Palakart and in Kerala also.

[00:02:09] Because by this by-election Palakart turned out to be a rare constituency where the Congress and the BJP were locked in a straight fight.

[00:02:22] But having said that, this result, today's result has come out more or less like what I expected right from the beginning.

[00:02:33] I mean I don't mean the victory margin. I think this victory margin which is…

[00:02:52] No, no, no. I mean Sadiqian sort of orchestrated the entire campaign and even he admitted that he did not expect or the party, Congress party did not expect such a huge margin.

[00:03:05] Today he was saying they were expecting anything between 10,000 and 15,000 and now the margin has exceeded all of their expectation.

[00:03:15] But again, as I said earlier, this result as such, it is more or like what I expected.

[00:03:27] I mean the UDF had a clear edge. That's what I believe, the UDF had a clear edge throughout the campaign.

[00:03:35] And I think what worked in favour of the Congress or the UDF is that they had a very good candidate in Rahul Mangudathil.

[00:03:44] He had already established himself as a five brand leader, both. I mean though he started with television debates.

[00:03:52] He was very active in protest.

[00:03:54] He was there on the street when the Youth Congress. I mean he was kind of able to reactivate the Youth Congress system itself.

[00:04:04] And like we know, he was very articulate and he is spot on when he takes on his political rivals, be it the CPM or the BJP.

[00:04:16] So they had a very good candidate there and of course Rahul had the backing of, strong backing of Shafiib Parambil.

[00:04:23] Whether Rahul admits it or not, Rahul came into the fray as a nominee of Shafiib Parambil and Vidi Sadiqan also supported him actively.

[00:04:37] So this machinery, the leadership was there and as we know, the Congress had to battle a lot of infighting there and there were issues right with the rebellion staged by Dr. P. Serin who eventually became the LDF candidate.

[00:04:58] Then there were, the letter controversy was there. I mean, as soon as Rahul started his campaign media reports or a letter which suggested that the district leadership wanted K. Murul Itherin to be the candidate.

[00:05:14] Such a letter came out and they had a lot of issues but by the end of the day, they managed to deliver their political messaging clear.

[00:05:25] And in Palakar, they had to fight both the BJP and the CPM alike and by the end of the day, they have managed to establish themselves as a clear alternative or a strong fighter when it comes to taking on BJP.

[00:05:43] And I think it's a huge morale booster for the Congress at a time when the local booty elections are due.

[00:05:52] So that takes us to George. George, you did a lot of ground reporting as part of this election coverage.

[00:05:58] So as I asked in the question, this means a lot of damage to the BJP because they lost so much in the municipality booths.

[00:06:07] So how do you explain this?

[00:06:09] BJP had its own trouble in the party which they managed to keep it under wraps for a long time till the end of the campaign.

[00:06:19] And then Sandeep Warrior happened and the dispute came in the front.

[00:06:25] But this issue was simmering in the BJP's municipality, the town, for a long time.

[00:06:34] And the results shows that. In the municipality, BJP had a lead of 6500 votes in the last election and now Congress has a lead of 4000.

[00:06:48] And that's where BJP lost the battle.

[00:06:50] Congress managed to hit BJP where it hurts the most.

[00:06:56] That is the urban votes.

[00:06:58] They just took away the urban votes in this election.

[00:07:01] And after that they never picked up?

[00:07:04] Yeah, I think like in almost all rounds in the town, Congress was leading.

[00:07:09] Except for the, except for 2 rounds where the RSS is pretty strong.

[00:07:15] Even the Muthon community which was strong supporters of BJP, even they have in that area BJP saw a slight in vote share.

[00:07:25] Though they managed to have a marginal lead over Congress.

[00:07:31] But it is, it was a slight across municipality. BJP lost votes.

[00:07:36] And one more thing George. Do you think Shafi factor worked in some way or other?

[00:07:40] Of course, Rakesh mentioned about him. So, what was in your opinion? Did it lead to some kind of consolidation?

[00:07:47] Yes. BJP has been running a Hindu consolidation campaign throughout, since 2011 when Shafi became the candidate.

[00:07:57] If you look at it without questioning Shafi's secular credentials, BJP found a very good excuse in Shafi to run their agenda of Hindu consolidation.

[00:08:09] In 2011 when Shafi first, when Shafi was first fielded in Palakkar, BJP's vote share was less than 20%.

[00:08:19] And the contest was between LDF and UDF.

[00:08:23] But in the next election, Shabha Surinderan increased BJP's, sorry BJP's vote share by 10% to 29%.

[00:08:30] And then E-Sridharan comes and takes it to 35%.

[00:08:33] And the loser was LDF. Like they've edged out LDF from the margins.

[00:08:40] And the contest became UDF versus BJP in Palakkar.

[00:08:44] And I think Shafi's Muslim identity was milked by BJP to eat into LDF's vote share.

[00:08:54] And on the reverse side, the Muslim consolidation happened and saved the day for…

[00:09:01] It may not be true but it works like that way.

[00:09:05] We have panchayats like Pirayiri where there is a considerable Muslim population.

[00:09:11] And BJP has on record said that they are not even campaigning in those panchayats because it is not democratically favorable to them.

[00:09:17] So these undercurrents are there.

[00:09:20] Okay, Aiyabhan, during this campaign, throughout Congress was ranting about anti-incumbency.

[00:09:27] CPM had so much at stake going into this bi-poll.

[00:09:30] Should CPM be relieved after what happened in Chailakara or what happened in Palakkar?

[00:09:36] What does this mean for CPM?

[00:09:37] Ashwin, CPM went into the polls to erase the growing perception that there was a secret deal between the CPM and the BJP.

[00:09:49] And they were determined to see that shoes on the other side, which is that Congress stained shoes or BJP stained shoes on the feet of the Congress.

[00:10:00] That is precisely why they picked Sarin.

[00:10:05] Because Sarin sort of amplified the counter-narrative, which was that there was a Congress-BJP underhand deal.

[00:10:15] He was the insider who was sort of exposing Congress's shenanigans.

[00:10:20] So this is a narrative that the CPM wanted to project and Sarin was the person who could easily amplify it.

[00:10:27] And that was the reason why Sarin was picked.

[00:10:29] And there was yet another smart reason to pick Sarin.

[00:10:34] Because, I mean, in addition to pushing this narrative, Sarin's academic qualifications, he was a doctor, he was a former civil servant.

[00:10:44] That made him acceptable to the upper caste elites in Palakkar.

[00:10:49] I think during the survey many people, we did a survey.

[00:10:52] Yeah, yeah.

[00:10:53] Many people actually told us about this.

[00:10:54] Yeah.

[00:10:57] And what happened was that Sarin did manage to make some notable gains in the municipal area.

[00:11:05] Because normally, traditionally, upper caste elite voters normally shun CPM candidates.

[00:11:15] That has been the tradition.

[00:11:16] That has been the history.

[00:11:17] In that sense, Sarin was a very smart choice.

[00:11:21] You mean to say that the choice was a very good one.

[00:11:24] Very good one.

[00:11:25] For the CPM to sort of, you know, one, to push forward that narrative, the counter narrative that the deal was between Congress and the BJP.

[00:11:35] And two, to make inroads into the Hindu community which they were not getting.

[00:11:40] The upper caste elite Hindu votes that the CPM was not getting.

[00:11:43] Right.

[00:11:43] And there was another way in which the CPM was trying to get Hindu votes, which was to criticize the lambast, the Muslim League.

[00:11:56] It is not just enough to sort of attack the Muslim League.

[00:11:59] Because I mean merely attacking the Muslim League wouldn't give them any advantage because the league is considered to be pretty secular.

[00:12:06] People believe that.

[00:12:07] And for that they linked it to Jamaatis.

[00:12:09] I understand.

[00:12:10] The implication is that they are, they have now transformed into the extreme version of itself.

[00:12:15] So this way they tried to get Hindu votes by trying to demonize Muslim League.

[00:12:19] They tried to get Hindu votes.

[00:12:21] I think the first one to get into the, they could make some inroads into the Hindu votes.

[00:12:27] But as for the Muslim votes, I think they failed big time.

[00:12:32] But they did make an attempt with that ad, ad they gave only by fully.

[00:12:36] That was another, that was another way in which, that was one way, what I think with the ads what they tried was, they tried to create some sort of disaffection in Muslims towards the Congress.

[00:13:01] Even that didn't work because I was just talking to George and he said in Pirayiri, which the BJP said we are not even going to contest that because of the demographics.

[00:13:11] There, the Congress had increased their vote by even 2000.

[00:13:16] Their, their lead has gone up by nearly 8000.

[00:13:19] So that, that strategy didn't, that ad strategy didn't work.

[00:13:23] I think it, it boomeranged.

[00:13:25] Right.

[00:13:27] To add to that point, because of the big slide of the BJP, now LDF is trying, LDF was in this battle to be the number 2.

[00:13:35] And they managed to reduce the gap to 2000 vote with the BJP, the difference between, it was 17000 in the previous election.

[00:13:43] Right.

[00:13:43] So that way at least it was a, Sarin put up a good show by reducing the margin between the number 2 and the number 3.

[00:13:50] But essentially that margin has been reduced because of BJP's slight of around 6 points, 6 percentage points.

[00:13:56] Let's go to Chela Kara.

[00:13:59] Ragesh, I would say Ramya Haradas was a very bold choice made by the Congress.

[00:14:04] Did that choice backfair?

[00:14:06] I think so.

[00:14:08] Because, right before this conversation I was talking to some of my sources in the Congress party and

[00:14:15] at least off record now they say that they made a mistake.

[00:14:20] I mean, Ramya Haradas was not the right choice for Chela Kara by Paul.

[00:14:24] Right.

[00:14:25] The logic is that as we know she was the UDF candidate in the Lok Sabha ball which happened a few months ago and she lost badly.

[00:14:36] I mean she lost the Parliament election.

[00:14:39] Sitting seat.

[00:14:39] She lost her sitting seat.

[00:14:41] The only Congress candidate?

[00:14:42] Yeah, the only Congress candidate who lost the sitting seat.

[00:14:46] When it came to the voters of Chela Kara, they had this Ramya Haradas on one hand.

[00:14:53] If you go by the Lok Sabha election results, she had proven to be a failed people's representative in the Lok Sabha.

[00:15:01] And on the other hand, the voters of Chela Kara had UR Pradeep, the CPM candidate who wields considerable, huge influence among the electorate.

[00:15:15] Also, he was an MLA in the same constituency 2016 and he had to leave the constituency for a taller leader like K Radha Krishna.

[00:15:28] They opted for Pradeep.

[00:15:30] So George, he was saying Ramya turned out to be a wrong choice for the Congress but when it came to CPM they were spot on.

[00:15:39] They didn't take any chance.

[00:15:40] So you did a lot of ground reporting in Chela Kara also.

[00:15:44] Tell us about how CPM worked in terms of their game plan.

[00:15:48] To begin with, I would like to disagree with Pradeep, sorry, Ragesh on Ramya being a bad choice.

[00:15:56] I think that was Congress's best bet in Chela Kara but Congress just did not have the organizational prowess or network in Chela Kara in place.

[00:16:07] And in Chela Kara, they were running an, as he said, anti-incumbency campaign as the main theme of the campaign.

[00:16:16] And to counter that, Chief Minister did some seven rallies in the same constituency highlighting exactly what the government did on the developmental front.

[00:16:25] So, unlike Palakad where there is a BJP angle to the contest, here it was a contest to see whether the anti-incumbency is there or not.

[00:16:35] Which was very palpable on the ground.

[00:16:37] People, voters, everybody said there is anti-incumbency.

[00:16:41] But when you put head to head Pradeep versus Ramya, people did not have a doubt.

[00:16:47] Because Ramya was totally missing when she was MP, missing from the constituency when she was the MP.

[00:16:53] And she was fielded after a humiliating defeat in the looks of the election.

[00:16:59] And, but then she did well in this election too.

[00:17:04] If you see, if you just see LDF's performance, they have won by 40,000, nearly 40,000, 40,000 when Radha,

[00:17:14] Yes, 2021. Radha, won by nearly 40,000 votes.

[00:17:19] And this time, the winning margin is just around 12,000.

[00:17:22] And going by the CPM's organizational strength, they have been ruling in Chalakara since 1996.

[00:17:30] And they have strengthened the party in all these years.

[00:17:33] Whereas Ramya after becoming the MP, she could have also did her bid to strengthen the party or UDF in the constituency but…

[00:17:44] That didn't happen.

[00:17:45] Yeah, that did not happen.

[00:17:46] Right.

[00:17:47] But then, Ramya, there was no other candidate.

[00:17:51] Eventually, they had to settle for him.

[00:17:54] Ayavan, tell me why would CPM be so much enthused about Chalakara?

[00:17:59] I mean, is Chalakara the sole answer to all this campaign on anti-incumbency?

[00:18:04] During this by-election, this was one way.

[00:18:07] I mean, fortunately for them, a by-election happened in their bastion.

[00:18:11] And this was one way they could tell the people there's no anti-incumbency way.

[00:18:15] In that sense, it was very important for them.

[00:18:17] Because Balakar is a known Congress bastion and Bhaayana, I mean, there's no question.

[00:18:25] So this was one area where they can show, demonstrate to the people that there's no anti-incumbency.

[00:18:30] Our schemes have worked.

[00:18:31] We are pro-people and that will show in this election.

[00:18:34] You will see it in this election.

[00:18:36] That way, Chalakara was important.

[00:18:37] That's why CM kept stressing on development.

[00:18:40] He was there seven times.

[00:18:41] He appeared in seven rallies there.

[00:18:43] Right.

[00:18:43] Nowhere else did he go?

[00:18:45] Right.

[00:18:45] This way, I mean, in such an aggressive fashion.

[00:18:47] And it was, in this place, he didn't speak about any, he didn't speak about any religious or communal divide.

[00:18:53] He just spoke about development.

[00:18:54] And does this result mean what Kerala is?

[00:18:59] I mean, is this an answer to the BJP narrative?

[00:19:02] Aipan, can you just answer that?

[00:19:04] I mean, I would like to think so.

[00:19:07] So, this was, I mean, after what happened in Trishur, I think the BJP had a feeling that they could sort of, you know, sustain the trend and pick up Palakar also along the way.

[00:19:21] Because Palakar is a place where they are considered to be strong because they have been ruling Palakar municipality.

[00:19:27] But then I think people, after what happened in Trishur and then seven months later, for this to happen, I think Kerala thinks differently.

[00:19:37] Kerala is anti-BJP.

[00:19:39] Small disagreement here again because the margin, the wide margin around 18,000 votes has come from consider BJP supporters in this case.

[00:19:50] Rahul did manage to attract…

[00:19:53] You mean to say that there was erosion of votes from the BJP to the government?

[00:19:56] This is rare in this constitution.

[00:19:58] We have not seen BJP's votes eroding since 2011 and this time it happened.

[00:20:02] So, there are fence-sitters in BJP which has gone and voted for Rahul this time.

[00:20:09] So, but then yes, for every secular Malayali, there is an anti-BJP vote and there is a party vote.

[00:20:17] So, when there is a risk of BJP winning, you exercise the anti-BJP vote.

[00:20:22] That's right.

[00:20:22] Okay.

[00:20:23] One final question before we conclude.

[00:20:25] This Palakar Bipole campaign witnessed so many controversies.

[00:20:30] There were so much discussions regarding this black money, defection, turn codes, everything.

[00:20:36] I am eventually capped by that controversial ad.

[00:20:41] I would like to hear it from each one of you.

[00:20:44] Did any of these controversies actually leave an impact on the final verdict?

[00:20:49] I will start with IAPL.

[00:20:50] I assume we all of us together did this survey, this informal survey for Palakar.

[00:20:56] And what we really…the takeaway from the Palakar survey that we did was that none of these

[00:21:02] factors mattered.

[00:21:03] Okay.

[00:21:03] Not Rahul Mangutathil's trolley bag.

[00:21:07] Not PV Enver.

[00:21:10] Not the, what you call the alleged secret deal between BJP, CPM, BJP Congress.

[00:21:16] Nothing of that mattered.

[00:21:17] Not even Sandeep Varya.

[00:21:18] Not even Sandeep Varya.

[00:21:19] The only thing that mattered was the performance of the Pundraai Vijayan Ministry and two,

[00:21:23] the plight of paddy farmers.

[00:21:26] Right.

[00:21:26] Which means people have their ear on the ground.

[00:21:29] They are more grounded than what we journalists think.

[00:21:33] So none of that mattered.

[00:21:34] And do you agree to him?

[00:21:36] Yeah, Ashwin, I totally agree with what IAPL said.

[00:21:40] And I just would like to add one point.

[00:21:43] I think even a leader like, BJP leader like Sandeep Varya, he dared to take that decision

[00:21:50] to join the Congress camp because I think he, he sensed the result, uh, way ahead.

[00:21:58] In advance.

[00:21:59] George, any, any other comments?

[00:22:01] Yeah.

[00:22:02] I agree with you because none of the issues that plays out in the TV reflects on the ground.

[00:22:07] They have already decided even before the campaign started home to vote.

[00:22:11] And I've met voters who have said that they have decided to vote for, uh, in Palakkar,

[00:22:17] they have decided to vote for Rahul.

[00:22:19] And the entire team, one, one fish, fish seller was saying that we, they have a family of 40,

[00:22:24] extended family of 40, and they've decided to vote for Rahul this time.

[00:22:27] And I said, why this time?

[00:22:28] They said last, why not last time?

[00:22:30] They said, last time they didn't decide.

[00:22:33] It's up to them to vote decide.

[00:22:35] It's up to them to individuals to take a call on whom to vote.

[00:22:38] But this time they've decided to vote.

[00:22:41] And because, uh, uh, in block, 40, 40 of their extended family have decided,

[00:22:46] there was a conscious decision to vote for Rahul Mahmood.

[00:22:48] Because they think that, uh, the last times of winning margin of Shafi Parambil was too narrow.

[00:22:54] And they couldn't afford to take a risk this time.

[00:22:57] So there was a conscious decision on the ground.

[00:22:59] And similarly in Chela Kar, uh, this issues of the rural issues were, uh, there.

[00:23:05] The, uh, I could sense, uh, people being unhappy with the government.

[00:23:09] Right.

[00:23:09] Uh, and, uh, these are the issues people discuss on the ground.

[00:23:13] Uh, not the trolleys and, uh.

[00:23:17] That brings us to the end of today's episode.

[00:23:20] This is On Manorama's News Break, an explainer podcast produced by Harida Benjamin.

[00:23:25] It airs every week and is available on all podcast platforms.

[00:23:29] For more news, views and updates, follow www.onmanorama.com.