2024 marks Kerala’s hottest year-are heatwaves here to stay? | Ep 144

[00:00:00] Kerala, which has always boasted of a maritime-equable climate, has seen a drastic rise in temperatures in recent years. The state, which once experienced extremes only during monsoons, now records heatwaves, surging electricity consumption and a record number of air conditioner sales. So what changed? And where does it stop?

[00:00:29] Hi, and welcome to News Break. I'm Harita Benjamin, and today we are discussing Kerala's rising temperatures. Joining us is Dr. Sinan Nisar, a junior scientist from the Institute of Climate Studies in KOTEM. So Dr. Nisar, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Thank you very much. First of all, thank you for having me on this podcast.

[00:00:52] Right. So, Dr. Nisar, a recent report from your Institute states that 2024 was Kerala's warmest year on record. And this is based on the data which is collated from 1901, right? Yes.

[00:01:07] Yeah. So that is an alarming statistic, right? What does the temperature rise mean for a coastal state like Kerala? And are we likely to see further increases like this in coming years? Because 2023 was also one of the warmest years on record, right?

[00:01:24] So if you ask me regarding the statistic that was projected in the climate statement, which was by the way, prepared by the Institute for Climate Change Studies in collaboration with the Indian Meteorology Department, I would say that the statistic is actually significant. In fact, if you go through the climate statement, you can see that there is almost one degree Celsius rise in the annual mean temperatures from the long period average.

[00:01:50] And if we are to look at this from what's happening globally and also what's happening in India, we can see that the warming that we experience in Kerala is actually in line with what's happening globally. In fact, WMO also recently confirmed that 2024 was one of the hottest years on record. In fact, they reported that the world average temperatures crossed around 1.55 degrees Celsius.

[00:02:18] And when we say 1.55 degrees Celsius, that's an alarmingly significant figure because this crosses the 1.5 degree limits that we agreed during the Paris Agreement. Right. It's a significant statistic, but Kerala is also warming up just like how the entire globe is warming up. Okay. What about the situation in India? If you are to compare the rise of temperatures across Indian states, is it more alarming in Kerala or is Kerala an anomaly?

[00:02:48] I wouldn't say that Kerala is an anomaly. Rightly, as I said before, the warming that we experience in Kerala is actually in line with what's happening globally and also what's happening across our country. Okay. In fact, if you look at the climate summary that was released in 2023 by the Intermetrological Department, you can see that the entire country as a whole is actually warming up. If I'm correct, I think it's around 0.66 degrees Celsius every decade.

[00:03:15] So, this is more or less very similar to what's happening in Kerala as well. But there could be variations depending on the state and depending on the geographical location of every state. There could be variations. But this is what is observed in general throughout the country. Okay. So, now we have been hearing the word heat wave, you know, recently a lot.

[00:03:39] So, does this mean that, you know, this rise in temperature, does this mean that we will be witnessing more of heat waves in Kerala specifically? And could you also tell us when do we qualify something as a heat wave? So, when you come to the heat waves, as you initially asked regarding the frequency, it is expected that we are going to experience more frequent heat waves in the coming years. Yes, that is more expected. Okay.

[00:04:08] But specifically when you ask regarding the particular situation in Kerala where we are a coastal city, we may not have the temperatures as much as in other northern parts of India. But when it's combined with the humidity that we experience, we might have an exaggerated situation where we might feel more difficult even with a slight heat wave. So, there have been some debates regarding the definition of heat waves in certain cases.

[00:04:34] Kerala might not be shown on the map with heat waves, but the situation could be much worse than regions where there is heat waves. So, there are still some definitions which do not align, but the changes are being made now. Okay. So, basically the impact would be felt even though in terms of degree Celsius, it might not be that much. That's what you're saying, right? Yes, yes, yes.

[00:05:01] In fact, we also have been looking at compounded climate extremes. So, in certain cases, there could be a scenario where you are not going to have particular extreme, let's say that you're not going to have a drought situation. You might have a mild drought, but this could be combined with a heat wave, a slight heat wave. And when these both occur together, you are going to have serious problems, especially in water stress situations and all. So, these kind of compounded climate extremes might come more frequent in the future.

[00:05:31] Okay. Understood. So, last year, along with the extreme temperatures, we also witnessed a tragedy in Bainard, which was triggered by extreme rainfall. So, will this be more common in coming years? And how would this temperature rise in the upcoming years impact Kerala, Kerala's rainfall pattern and therefore crop patterns? Yes. So, here I would like to stress something that we recently found.

[00:05:59] And in fact, most of the studies also confirmed this, that in the coming years, it is going to be more of an extremes. And when I say extremes, I mean both extremes are possible, where it could be a drought or a flood. Or as I explained earlier, it could be a compounded climate extreme as well. So, in the coming years, it is expected that you can have both extremes. Either it could be a drought year, either it could be an extreme rainfall event that can initiate a landslide or even a flash flood situation in Kerala.

[00:06:29] So, all these scenarios are being expected in the coming future. Okay. So, I think in the report, you had mentioned that the deficit was felt during the southwest monsoon period. And there was, in fact, a surplus in the rest of the year. Is that correct? Yes. Yeah. So, but during 2024, I believe that the deficit was not so profound. Right. But the pattern is changing. That's what we have been observing.

[00:06:55] So, let's say that even you do not have much of a deficit in the summer monsoon season, there are changing patterns. For example, you are going to have more days without rainfall. So, whenever you are having a rainfall, the rainfall is going to be more intense when compared to the long-term average. At the same time, you are also going to have long breaks between the monsoon season.

[00:07:18] So, even if you don't have a change in the annual rainfall amount that you get, the pattern is all changing now. So, considering that we are still, you know, an agrarian economy, isn't that going to significantly affect the crop patterns? Yes. So, we recently had a project in the Bharatapur River Basin where we were actually looking at how climate change is impacting the livelihood, especially in agricultural practices.

[00:07:47] And we had a crop modeling done there, particularly for the Bharatapur River Basin. In fact, the study was also done in collaboration with the Centers for Water Resource Development and Management in Calicut. And one of the findings is that in the coming future, in the projected future, it is expected that our crop yield will go down because of the changes in temperature. Not just the temperature values, but the diurnal variation of temperature is also changing. So, the crops may not be able to adapt to these changing patterns.

[00:08:16] Even the rainfall pattern is changing. More intense rainfall is going to erode the topsoil. When you have more erosion of the topsoil, even the fertilizer application may not be so optimized. So, all these factors, it's been shown that in the future, you're going to have a reduced crop yield. Okay. So, that means we'll have to work different strategy for improving our agriculture, right? Either you'll have to look for, you know, other genetically modified crops or you'll have to look at diversification.

[00:08:46] So, is there anything in the works to discuss this aspect at the government level? Yes. In fact, one of the ways of adapting is to have a better variety of crops. Okay. And the government is also at the forefront of these causes. And there are numerous projects. In fact, if you look at the state action plan on climate change, which was developed by the Department of Environment and Climate Change, there is a lot of adaptation strategies listed out.

[00:09:16] And most of the activities in the state government, which are being taken up, is actually being aligned with the state action plan on climate change. So, it is always made sure that we try to help the farmers with a better variety of crops. And also, not just crops and also different farming practices are also being implemented at various research stations. And then we are trying to come up with methods to implement this in the field as well.

[00:09:44] Right. Okay. So, now moving on, what could be the key drivers behind this increase? We all are talking about global warming, but could there be local factors which is also increasing the heat which is felt in the state? Like, do you think any man-made factors which are there locally is also affecting the temperature changes? Okay. Yeah. So, the primary factor, as you said, is the greenhouse gas emission,

[00:10:12] which is causing the greenhouse gas effect and then in turn causing the global warming. That's the primary factor. Yeah. But if you look at the regional factors now, then you have the deforestation that comes into action. There is also the urbanization that's happening. And when an urban area is being built up, there is more chances of heat being trapped in that area due to the change in the entire structure.

[00:10:36] So, these are factors that can have impacts regionally, but there are practical considerations as well. So, we may not be able to entirely restrict such developments, but at the same time, there could be a kind of policy implementation so that we can reduce the impact of such developments.

[00:10:55] Okay. So, if you are to conclude and give a solution for this, what could be the land use pattern and construction and urban planning suggestions that you could give at the government level and otherwise? So, one of the major issues that we are expecting is going to be the water stress situation. Right. So, one of the major roles that we do have is that most of our payments and most of our lands are being impervious.

[00:11:23] So, there is less ground recharge happening right now. Okay. And we need to have policies where you need to conserve certain regions to allow groundwater recharges. And also, we should preserve certain water bodies and wells that are already there in our locality. So, the next important problem is urbanization. And as I said, there are practical problems in actually restricting our development. But at the same time, there are also greener solutions.

[00:11:53] For example, you could design green spaces within the urban areas which can actually reduce the impact of these urban areas. In fact, we call it as the urban heat island. So, a green space within the urban area can reduce the urban heat island effect. Okay. And again, yet another, maybe we could also try strengthening our public transport system so that people use more and more of the public transport. That is all different ways of how we can help reduce our emissions. Right.

[00:12:21] So, these are a few of the mitigation strategies which we can include. But what could be the other mitigation strategies? And are the warning systems which are existing right now enough? Or should there be a serious upgrade on that front? In case of the warning systems that we have in place, I think Kerala has made significant progress in disaster management. In fact, our state disaster management authority is highly recognized nationally.

[00:12:50] But further improvements are necessary. That we have to say. But when I say improvements, I mean that we need to support our disaster management authority with adequate early warning systems. But again, it's a challenging task considering the climatic and geographic setting of our state. Especially we know that we have a very narrow stretch of land. And we do have Western Ghats on one side and the Arabian Sea on the other side. The climatic pattern is entirely challenging.

[00:13:19] We are extremely densely populated states. So, that also poses a problem. Yeah. Yeah. We do have a lot of vulnerable population. So, considering all these factors, it's very difficult to have a very effective early warning system. But I think based on the recent extreme events that we have already experienced, the government is also taking a lot of steps to strengthen. For example, the Institute for Climate Change Studies have been identified as a center of excellence in climate studies.

[00:13:48] And through this, the government is actually trying to strengthen the research capabilities. And in fact, the government is also bringing up radar in YNAD so that we can have an early observation of the cloud systems and all. So, in terms of warning system, yes, we are doing a lot, but it is not enough. But the government is taking steps so that in the coming months soon, we will be better equipped to take care of the extreme events.

[00:14:15] Also, to wind up, you know, we spoke about the warning systems. That is for the immediate measures and, you know, for making sure that, you know, the people are, you know, removed from areas of extreme rainfall events and landslides. They don't, you know, succumb to landslides. But if you are looking at the long-term impact, we know that there is a human-animal conflict which is brewing in Kerala.

[00:14:40] And climate change is one of the significant factors which is, you know, leading to this. So, what do you think should be the long-term plan, you know, drawn out for ensuring that, you know, human-animal conflict is minimized? We can't eliminate it completely, but that it is minimized. With that, I think we can wind up. So, talking about climate change, as I've said, climate change is a global phenomenon, but the impacts are very regional.

[00:15:08] So, you cannot predict or you cannot have a particular framework for, in the general sense, but you need to have a specific set of framework for a particular region. So, in this scenario, just like you stated, there could be a human-animal conflict. All these situations, we need to have an interdisciplinary or multi-institutional framework, not just a particular institute that focuses on climate or water resources or even the disaster. But we need to have people from forest department.

[00:15:38] We need to have people from social departments. All the departments have to come together. They have to sit together and make up a framework. So, in the long term, I believe that there will be an interdisciplinary but multi-institutional set of team framework that is going to be implemented in Kerala. And that's the only solution that we can have. Yeah, I think it is important that we don't work in silos and there should be an integration because otherwise we can't, you know, get the larger objective done.

[00:16:07] So, I think with that, we can wind up today's episode. Thank you so much, Dr. Nisar, for joining us. And I think the Institute has done remarkable work in terms of monitoring the climate change and the temperature rises. Thank you so much. So, with that, we can come to an end of today's episode. This is On Manuruma's News Break and Explainer podcast, which is produced by Harita Benjamin. That's me. It airs every week and is available on all podcast platforms.

[00:16:34] So, do follow on manuruma.com for more such updates. Thank you.