Stepping into September ft Chandan Taparia

[00:00:00] [SPEAKER_01]: Welcome to Indian Market in Minutes podcast from the Motilal Oswal Research Desk.

[00:00:06] [SPEAKER_01]: This is your host Shivangi Sarda and today we have a distinguished guest joining us for

[00:00:11] [SPEAKER_01]: a special episode where we gain insights on how to step into September.

[00:00:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Joining us is man from Motilal Oswal, Mr. Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives

[00:00:31] [SPEAKER_01]: at Motilal Oswal Research Desk.

[00:00:34] [SPEAKER_01]: Hello sir, thank you for joining.

[00:00:36] [SPEAKER_00]: Thank you, Shivangi.

[00:00:37] [SPEAKER_00]: What better time to be on this podcast as we have created history.

[00:00:42] [SPEAKER_00]: Nifty has continued its winning streak of last 13 trading sessions which was last seen in

[00:00:49] [SPEAKER_00]: 1993.

[00:00:50] [SPEAKER_00]: We have moved by more than 1400 points in the last 18 sessions and index has been making

[00:00:57] [SPEAKER_00]: a new record high from the last 4 sessions.

[00:01:00] [SPEAKER_00]: So overall the bullish momentum is getting on the higher side and we believe this ongoing

[00:01:07] [SPEAKER_00]: journey could continue.

[00:01:09] [SPEAKER_01]: These are some really interesting data points that you have just mentioned.

[00:01:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Of course sir, we have seen a comeback of the bulls in the second half of August

[00:01:17] [SPEAKER_01]: and we are holding well above the 25k marks but how much can we trust the market at

[00:01:23] [SPEAKER_01]: these levels?

[00:01:25] [SPEAKER_01]: Is it time to offload or stick to the market right now?

[00:01:28] [SPEAKER_00]: Technically the index has been making a high rise from last 9 months.

[00:01:33] [SPEAKER_00]: Nifty has formed a strong bullish candle on the monthly scale and respecting well

[00:01:37] [SPEAKER_00]: to its rising support trend line.

[00:01:39] [SPEAKER_00]: Even after the short term consolidation, major trend of the market remains in tech

[00:01:43] [SPEAKER_00]: to positive and every small decline is being quickly bought in the market.

[00:01:49] [SPEAKER_00]: Nifty witnessed roll over of around 77% which is higher than its quarterly average.

[00:01:54] [SPEAKER_00]: Open interest in Nifty slightly improved with higher put call ratio and decline in

[00:01:59] [SPEAKER_00]: volatility which clearly suggests that overall buy on decline strengths could continue in

[00:02:05] [SPEAKER_00]: coming series.

[00:02:06] [SPEAKER_01]: Alright, and of course your recent study on the relative rotation graph on auto was

[00:02:12] [SPEAKER_01]: quite interesting.

[00:02:13] [SPEAKER_01]: Could you please throw some light on the same?

[00:02:16] [SPEAKER_00]: The analysis of RRG, relative rotation graph is all about finding the sector which

[00:02:21] [SPEAKER_00]: is strength and momentum.

[00:02:23] [SPEAKER_00]: It has four quadrants like leading, lagging, improving and weakening.

[00:02:29] [SPEAKER_00]: The analysis of RRG for auto index shows that Madhya-Sanshumi, TVS motor and

[00:02:34] [SPEAKER_00]: Asok Leeland are in leading quadrant which means strength and momentum both

[00:02:38] [SPEAKER_00]: are there.

[00:02:40] [SPEAKER_00]: Bal Krishna, Bharat Force, MNM and Exide are under weakening quadrant which

[00:02:44] [SPEAKER_00]: means momentum is likely to decline even after the strength.

[00:02:48] [SPEAKER_00]: While Bharati, Aishwarya motor are inside the lagging quadrant which shows strength

[00:02:53] [SPEAKER_00]: and momentum both are missing so some profit booking could be seen.

[00:02:57] [SPEAKER_00]: While Tata motors, MRF, Apollo tyre and Bajaj auto are under improving

[00:03:02] [SPEAKER_00]: quadrant which suggests strength is still low but momentum will start

[00:03:06] [SPEAKER_00]: improving.

[00:03:07] [SPEAKER_01]: So now we see that the auto is shifting gears but overall how does the

[00:03:13] [SPEAKER_01]: market look?

[00:03:13] [SPEAKER_01]: What will be the outlook for September henceforth?

[00:03:16] [SPEAKER_00]: So, Derrity's data and price setup suggests Nifty has to hold about 25,000

[00:03:23] [SPEAKER_00]: zones for an up move towards 25, 600 then 26,000 zones whereas immediate

[00:03:29] [SPEAKER_00]: supports are placed at 24, 850 and 24, 600 zones.

[00:03:33] [SPEAKER_00]: So one can play the upside move but buy on decline stints or going with

[00:03:38] [SPEAKER_00]: positive range bond bias has to be the key agenda for being in the

[00:03:43] [SPEAKER_00]: market.

[00:03:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Alright so now you know how to play out the September month but speaking

[00:03:47] [SPEAKER_01]: of the global markets how do you see these global markets affecting our

[00:03:52] [SPEAKER_01]: domestic market in the near term future?

[00:03:54] [SPEAKER_00]: So when we talk about the global markets we have seen Dow, the US

[00:04:00] [SPEAKER_00]: market index hit the new high.

[00:04:02] [SPEAKER_00]: CBOE weeks that is the volatility index of the US market has

[00:04:06] [SPEAKER_00]: corrected from 65 to 16.

[00:04:08] [SPEAKER_00]: India Weeks the volatility index at India has corrected from 23 to 13

[00:04:13] [SPEAKER_00]: levels so stability in the global market biting the new high and

[00:04:18] [SPEAKER_00]: decline in the volatility clearly indicates that overall bullish bias

[00:04:21] [SPEAKER_00]: could continue in the global equity markets.

[00:04:25] [SPEAKER_00]: We have seen a spike and then sharp decline in volatility which

[00:04:29] [SPEAKER_00]: clearly indicates that bullish bias could continue.

[00:04:31] [SPEAKER_00]: So as of now the risk and greed and fear indicator indicates

[00:04:36] [SPEAKER_00]: overall bullish bias and lesser risk in the market as of now.

[00:04:41] [SPEAKER_01]: So overall bulls to keep riding the market and now for our

[00:04:45] [SPEAKER_01]: listeners the most interesting segment what are the sectors and

[00:04:49] [SPEAKER_01]: stocks to watch out?

[00:04:51] [SPEAKER_00]: So sector wise we believe consumption could be in focus counter

[00:04:54] [SPEAKER_00]: like Godrej's consumer product, Tata Consumer, Dabar, Hindustan

[00:04:59] [SPEAKER_00]: Unilever could be in focus.

[00:05:01] [SPEAKER_00]: In Otopic we already have discussed about relative rotation

[00:05:04] [SPEAKER_00]: chart set up and accordingly we have positive strengths on

[00:05:08] [SPEAKER_00]: counter like TVS Mota, Hiromoto and Bajaj Oto.

[00:05:11] [SPEAKER_00]: In Cement PEC we need to focus on the Grassim, ACC,

[00:05:15] [SPEAKER_00]: Ultra Tech and Ramco Cement.

[00:05:17] [SPEAKER_00]: In real estate some volatility could be there but top name

[00:05:22] [SPEAKER_00]: will be Obra Realty and Godrej's property.

[00:05:25] [SPEAKER_00]: So these are the couple of sectors and stocks you need to

[00:05:27] [SPEAKER_00]: keep in mind to play well in the month of September.

[00:05:30] [SPEAKER_01]: Alright we have an entire basket of stocks and sectors

[00:05:33] [SPEAKER_01]: to look out for.

[00:05:35] [SPEAKER_01]: Also recently in our new campaign Man from Motilal Oswal

[00:05:39] [SPEAKER_01]: we have highlighted how research plays an important role.

[00:05:43] [SPEAKER_01]: Can you shed some light on that?

[00:05:46] [SPEAKER_00]: So I believe research plays an important role to hold

[00:05:49] [SPEAKER_00]: the right position for right time.

[00:05:51] [SPEAKER_00]: I advise everyone to do their research before investing

[00:05:55] [SPEAKER_00]: not after.

[00:05:56] [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you so much sir for these incredible insights.

[00:05:59] [SPEAKER_01]: Looking forward to host you super soon.

[00:06:01] [SPEAKER_01]: Well this is it for this special episode.

[00:06:04] [SPEAKER_01]: Wish you a super series ahead and don't forget to follow

[00:06:06] [SPEAKER_01]: this podcast for your daily morning dose of the market.

[00:06:10] [SPEAKER_01]: Shivangi Sarda signing off.

[00:06:26] [SPEAKER_01]: Investment and securities market are subject to market risk.

[00:06:29] [SPEAKER_01]: Read all the related documents carefully before investing.