In this episode, the host, Shivangi Sarda, provides a comprehensive analysis of the market’s current state and future potential. Joining her for our special episode to understand what’s in store for us in the upcoming July series. Joining us is Mr. Chandan Taparia, head of Technical & Derivatives at Motilal Oswal research desk.
Key segments cover technical insights, FII activity, index actionable, and sectors to watch, highlighting Nifty's potential highs, volatility impact, and strong stocks.
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[00:00:00] Welcome to Indian Market in Minutes, podcast from the Motilal Oswal Research Desk. This is your host, Shivanki Sarda and today we have a distinguished guest joining me for our special episode to understand what's in store for us in the upcoming July series.
[00:00:27] Joining me is Mr. Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives desk at Motilal Oswal Research. Hello sir, thank you for gracing us. Thank you Shivanki, it's a lovely time to celebrate the Indian marketed lifetime high. We were talking about Chobhi Smith, Chobhi Sajjar and here it is.
[00:00:45] But again, question will be what's next and for me it seems that the journey is going to be very exciting. Surely sir, now for the viewers today we will be covering roll over of the hendices, technical and derivatives view, FII's activity, index actionable, sectors and stocks
[00:01:03] to watch out and finally some of the questions which we have received on our social channels. Now let's begin. Nifty roll over stood at 76% both were seen in full action and it touched a fresh all time high.
[00:01:18] Well, it has surpassed the much awaited psychological 24,000 mark and now what's your take on this? So, Nifty's roll over is higher than his 3 month average of 71% and it is also higher than the last 4 months. Nifty has total outstanding open interest of nearly 15 million and loans are comfortably
[00:01:42] carrying to the next series as volatility is also falling. There has been an addition in the open interest by 5% along with a significant rise in price which clearly indicates that bull assistance could continue in the market. You mentioned about volatility where I was going to come to next.
[00:02:01] This month has been one of the most important ones with the event euphoria and sentiments settling in for our market. In our weeks closed the June series near 14 levels and we've seen that Nifty put call ratio also rose to almost 1.5.
[00:02:18] Now what will be the interpretation of this combination according to you? So quite interesting. India weeks declined to 13-14 zones after spiking to 32 levels during the event time. So because of that earlier it created a wild swing but later it cooled off to close near
[00:02:38] its lowest bend and comforted the bulls on the Lall Street. Overall, rising put call ratio with falling volatility clearly indicates that bulls are dominating and because of that slightly to have a smoother ride in next coming weeks.
[00:02:53] Absolutely. So overall I understand that option data now suggests a broader trading range in between 23,600 to 24,500 levels. Let's shift focus to Bank Nifty whether rollover stood at almost 71%. Now one of the questions that we have received is that Bank Nifty has definitely
[00:03:16] felt like a big formal and we've seen a catch up rally in this series. It's almost up by 4000 points in the entire month. Now what's next for this rate sensitive index? So rate sensitive Bank Nifty has seen inland rollover.
[00:03:31] There's not great but inline with this quarterly average because we have seen some short covering trigger in the last week when Bank Nifty crossed 50,000 zones it has measured support near 52,000 marks until it holds about the same.
[00:03:48] We could see extension of the ongoing rally which can take it towards 54,000 to 55,000 zones. Now moving on to the second segment in the equity cash market FII's broke their selling stance and cumulatively bought equities worth 2,061 crores in the June month so far.
[00:04:08] DII's have continued their buying stance of the last 13 months and they have bought 21,975 crores in June so far. So FII's long short ratio and index future witness a complete recovery through the entire series. This ratio has moved from 12.8 to 18.7 and it grows near to the highest part.
[00:04:31] We have noticed in last three years that around five to six times this ratio turns from around 12 to 14 and index witnesses sharp recovery. And this time also it played quite well. So I believe that foreign players are big and their short covering supported the
[00:04:51] Indian market to climb and scale to the new highs. Well, this is an excellent take on our foreign players activity. Now going ahead with the index actionable help us with the range and view for the July series.
[00:05:06] So Barot's data and price setup suggests that Nifty index has to hold a key support of 23750 marks for an up move towards 24500 and 25000 zone. Whereas supports are placed at 23500 and then 23200 levels. One can also play the upside move but again we need to go with bio decline
[00:05:31] distance or we can go with positive to rainbow wise looking at the recent turn up in this market. Finally talking about the sectors and stocks to watch out. Positive stance was seen in most of the sectoral indices mainly in the banding,
[00:05:46] which was the star performer adding to this was auto metal reality and the IT sector. One of the most asked questions on our social media handles were that what are the sectors to be kept on radar now? So sectoralness folks which are showing strength would include cement,
[00:06:05] we have positive view on grassy India cement, positive price setup with better roll over indicates that momentum could continue here. In auto encephalies we have positive view on the battery and the tires. In tires we focus on Apollo tire and see it.
[00:06:22] Technically consultation breakout is clearly seen with momentum in the sector and we also seen a surge in the trading and delivery volume. Then one cannot miss power and gas especially talking about petronite,
[00:06:36] IGL, MGL, NTPC or most of these sectors or most of these stocks have surpassed key level and because of that first breakout could drive the next leg over really. I cannot miss nifty pharma and pharma stocks.
[00:06:50] Selective pharma stocks are doing well and here I would like to mention Dr. Reddy which has seen the role reversal that means previous residents acted as a support and it started the next one. And last but not least I'll talk about the reality and the Godres property
[00:07:06] which is continuously making high-tox high-volta information on the weekly and monthly chart and I think all these stocks will provide the alpha and has potential to outperform the market as well to cheer the market sentiment.
[00:07:20] Thank you so much sir for these incredible insights looking forward to host you soon. Well, this is it for the special episode which you are super serious ahead and don't forget to follow this podcast for your daily morning dose of the market. This is Shivanki Sarda signing off.