Inflation Insights and Bold Projections: Samantha LaDuc's Exclusive 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast | Buy Hold Sell

[00:00:00] inflation is in check the CPI number came out much less than expected what

[00:00:12] Wall Street was expecting and sent stocks soaring to the moon we saw all

[00:00:16] three major averages of feet today and we saw the 10-year yield drop below 4.5%

[00:00:22] what does all this mean what means the feeling right now is that not only is the Fed not going to be hiking at the December meeting, they're likely not going to hike at all going forward, which is always going to be a bullish signal for the markets. But what's your take on all of this?

[00:01:41] That has been my baseline bet since March 12th.

[00:01:44] So March 12th was Sunday before the futures market came out, interesting today to see the odds of 25 basis cuts a quarter percent for all four Fed meetings next year with cuts. And you know everybody's been waiting for whatever to show up, Godot to show up. Just with your last name I wanted to throw a little Godot in there. Okay, the Godot has been

[00:04:03] in both NASDAQ 100 and spy on August 1st. It was massive.

[00:04:04] And it obviously continued to put a bid,

[00:04:08] not only in the dollar, but the 10 year, right?

[00:04:11] So as we have this-

[00:04:12] No, it's a self, Yellen Yotzi put that in.

[00:04:15] Yellen Yotzi.

[00:04:15] So this is really, really important

[00:04:17] because treasury issuance trumps the whole Fed put thing.

[00:04:21] Fiscal is basically not going down,

[00:04:24] which demands more bond issuance.

[00:04:27] So therefore it's fiscal over Fed. this VIX crush and that's also into FOMC November 1st, November 1st after we've had this lovely three-month pullback was the FOMC, intonated Fed pause, you love that word, where basically that also excited the bulls. So by nature, you have VIX suppression, you have the FOMC announcement that they're basically pausing,

[00:05:42] and then you have Yellen Yotzi comes out and doesn't issue the second was five new highs on the Wall Street general list and 1865 new lows. So maybe you throw that into your matrix because it has been deadly aggregate. Obviously everyone who had to sell has sold. All the bears who put the bear position are already bearish. You know, it hit all the oversold signals and it feels to me, Samantha, like the market is actually sort of acting normal and saying that, well, yeah, the Magnificent Seven have made to, you know, it'll be a lot of money this year, but holy crying, I can buy a bank for 25% of its net asset value. I can buy, you know, and it seemed

[00:08:20] rational today. I don't know. Did was I smoking something? No,

[00:08:23] I think let me just go back. The the paid to wait mantra was it was already in play. What you're talking about a little bit different, I have a perspective that's a little bit different is that stocks are moving higher right now, not just because of the Yellen Yatsy. She pushed out the issuance of bonds. And just gonna help very large cap plays. But the big picture to me is that this is the real macro tailwind for igniting the bulls.

[00:11:01] And then on top of that, you've got the short covering

[00:11:03] and you've got the option gamma squeeze,

[00:11:05] which is basically this kind of option market structure. is also a nice tailwind for equities. Okay, so that's, we're still not at the level that where we were, that what you mentioned in July, July 31st, we have yet to clip that for the S&P 500. So we still have some room to move, but that's over the short term. What are your signals telling you at least going into 24?

[00:12:21] Because a friend of our, of the show,

[00:12:23] and I know a friend of yours as well, Jeffrey Hirsch, You get some squeezing going on, you get a nice, solid bounce, whether or not equities come onto distribution with that bond bounce is really what we're waiting to see. In other words, risk parity is dead. So right now bonds and stocks have been moving together higher and lower depending on the season. We've not really had any trust by bond bulls

[00:13:42] that we're going to go back to the old days

[00:13:45] of risk parity 60-40

[00:13:46] where you have actually this kind of inverse relationship. to go over the cliff in equities or bonds. But I don't see- I think she's being sarcastic. I'm not sure. No, I'm not. But I don't see this as a bullish backdrop that all is well, not at all. So I actually think that we can have a digestion with stocks and bonds as the dollar falls. And then

[00:15:02] this is very important. I know Jeffrey, by the end of 2023. One year out, more than one year out. I basically made it to the end of 2022. I said, this is what I see. We're going to hit 4.7 by the end of 2023. So we did, we took it out, right? We hit 4.99. Anyway, the point is, now that we're coming down,

[00:16:22] just like any other stock, you want to see it kind tightening, etc, etc. All that is kind of coming out that the air is coming out of the balloon right now. So it's giving the animal spirits

[00:18:44] potential disturbance in the force if they have to pivot, meaning remove negative rates.

[00:18:47] And that's going to obviously also kind of help

[00:18:49] that US dollar peak narrative that I've been talking about

[00:18:54] with some rotation into yen.

[00:18:56] But I think that that's to be determined.

[00:18:58] And right now it's more of an intellectual discussion.

[00:19:00] There's talk about January,

[00:19:01] but there's a lot of threat ahead in who will absorb

[00:20:04] very concise. Thank you. Very good. Todd, let's go. My head's going to explode. I want to let's leave it on this block because I mean, obviously the six spot five percent on the 10

[00:20:10] year for next year is a big deal. It's breaking news. It's a buyhold so exclusive. So what else

[00:20:15] is Samantha going to say? Because we're going to leave it there on this block. But coming up after

[00:20:19] the break, we got to talk about sectors. We got to talk about the retail sales number that's coming

[00:20:23] out this week, how that's going to lead Washington. I always found myself calling Eric when I didn't understand what was happening. And I always found him to be really good at explaining to me some of the things that I wasn't seeing. And I hope our guests will get the same type of insights. I always found myself talking to Joe when I couldn't believe what I was seeing

[00:21:40] happening to understand exactly how the heck we got to where we were.

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[00:23:06] but this is one of the only ways our shows make money to buy hold sell. We have a very special guest with us today. Samantha Woodu. She is the founder and president of Ladoop Trading. We welcome the audience to go to ladooptrading.com, see what Samantha has to say all the services that she offers. And Samantha, I had to put all my glasses. Everything you're saying is so intellectual and it really is getting into

[00:24:20] the weeds of a really dissecting this market and what we might be looking at next year. cap tech stocks together, take a look. It's on a weekly timeframe. You can see back here in October, November, where obviously we had a very large intervention where equities stopped going down, bonds too. And then we had a pullback into the January effect, which was right here. You can see this kind of timeframe.

[00:25:41] And then we had the bank bailout right here in March,

[00:25:44] loose monetary policy, by the way,

[00:25:46] NASDAQ loves loose monetary policy. safe. Well, that's too easy. Like, you know, unless it's been working for me for freaking 12 months, whatever. Well, it's too easy. And it means that they are heavily long the VIP stocks and heavily short the junk, really the dash for trash. And when you start to see that's listening to the audio version of this episode, we definitely invite you to check out the television program of I Hold Cell because Samantha's chart will be available on this show for that. Toby, what do you think about all of this? I mean, you're a big tech guy. You just looked at that chart. How are you feeling? You feeling bullish?

[00:29:40] Well, I mean, I would say three things.

[00:29:42] First off is I'm not as smart as Samantha, so I'm going to go a little duller here.

[00:29:46] You have the AI beneficiaries.

[00:29:48] Yeah. make sense than if you take the net spending on data centers over the next six to 12 months, which is up 21% over the year before that that spending is going to go into SMCI, Marvell technology, Palo Alto software, you know, AristaNet, all of those stocks, Samantha, if you put them on a chart, you will see

[00:31:01] that they have pulled back, we waited for them to pull back

[00:31:04] again to add, they pulled back classically to their 50 day on 20 ships through there. Well, guess what? Half the world operates on liquefied petroleum gas, LPG. Remember buying LPG tankers, the very large ones like Cray-Cray. Those stocks are all up 150% for us. They're paying 30% dividends. So my point is, yeah, macro, macro, macro, yada, yada, yada, yada. But there are significant opportunities. And now, God, I'm looking at regional banks,

[00:33:23] 50, 60% returns in weeks. And it's just that you never heard of any of these stocks.

[00:33:26] But the opportunities available to everybody,

[00:33:28] if you believe, as I believe,

[00:33:29] which we have a bull bear on rates,

[00:33:32] that regardless, here's my argument

[00:33:35] against your monetary theory deal.

[00:33:36] If, and I go back to my philosophy classes,

[00:33:39] if the Fed has been essentially flooding the market

[00:33:42] with free money for all this time,

[00:33:45] and we still had no inflation, why is that?

[00:33:48] And the answer I come up with is utilities for Christ's sake. Florida Power and Lights, now NWE. Well, let's parse this out. The BTFP, which is where obviously banks are hiding out so they can kind of navigate, and other such facilities. If you're so confident that inflation isn't a

[00:35:00] fiscal problem, then those facilities shouldn't exist. But again, that's a supply demand issue. Well, it is a theme, though, that I've had, you know, since fall of 2020. So those aren't going away. But they started,

[00:36:21] especially in the oil and gas space, right, to kind of, of

[00:36:25] digest, for lack of a better word. And there are other

[00:37:24] 24. Well, yeah, no, that this is a year. In other words, I made the the bet in September of 2022, that we would reach 4.7 by

[00:37:29] the end of 2023. Check. Now I have to make my new prediction.

[00:37:34] This is the year this is the timeframe, right that you make

[00:37:36] the new predictions. So mine is six and a half by the end of

[00:37:39] 2024.

[00:37:40] All right, we'll put her down for whatever that day is in

[00:37:43] 2024. Yes, yes, we will. So we actually got through kind of the meat of that big headline CPI, right? Of 9.1% in June. And anyway, so wage inflation started to compete and, if you will, not only outperform productivity, but also outrun the inflation as inflation was decelerating

[00:39:00] from the headline,

[00:39:00] which was very, very helpful for consumer spending.

[00:39:03] So that's been in play for 2022, 2023.

[00:39:06] So that's one of the reasons why the recession callers a good job in earnings, by the way, of passing higher prices along. And they've been absorbed because they're maintaining margins nicely, but it's on declining revenue. So so far, earnings have proven that they are beating. They usually do. The bar is always, you know, you know, low. But the point is they are beating by having such tight control over profit

[00:40:21] margins, but they're beating on declining revenue.

[00:40:24] Investors want to see higher revenue and good earnings.

[00:41:26] I don't know about up there in Massachusetts, but down here, you know, gasoline fuel. And at the marginal buyer level, marginal household, if they're saving 200 bucks a month

[00:41:32] on gas, and that means they're heating costs down on the sober, they have extra money.

[00:41:38] But we left out the part about the fact that we had the world record in the last three

[00:41:42] months of new money going on credit cards. I forgot that because I cut Costco. Those three are it. Those are the only retail that I have. Okay, well, you know, also it's a timely topic, not just because the retail sales data is coming out, but everybody's talking about what the consumer is going to be like, the health of the consumer as we go into the Christmas season.

[00:43:01] And so everybody wants to know,

[00:43:03] will we see the robust spending that we have seen?

[00:43:06] And you are right, Toby, the only boomer in this trio right now is Toby and we are. I'm just saying it's going to be very, it's going to be very interesting. There's a triple A does the thing about the price of gasoline average and then they there's somebody else takes that data and creates interest on their cash and the millennials who are very frustrated on the affordability of autos and homes. I just had a subscriber who has become a managing account, will end it at this. He's a boomer. He's getting ready to retire. He's going to be 70 in like January. And he sends me his broker statement, financial statement.

[00:45:42] He says, Toby, I'm really worried. I don't know if I'm going to be able to get by. I'm very happy to meet you gentlemen and I had not heard of you before and it was kind of nice that Jeffrey was the trailblazer here so get this invite and talk shop macro to micro sector rotation. I don't know what retail sales are. Well that's dead sexy sector rotation. I know that you're going to be on top of it whatever it is whatever it comes

[00:47:01] out to be you're going to be talking about the hottest print of the day and the stocks that you

[00:47:05] want to have into the year end but for right now I would say just be careful it's a little Thank you once again for joining us on Buy Hold Cell. We'll catch you next time. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care. Take care.

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