Financial Forefront: Nicole Middendorf Unravels the December Jobs Report and its Ripple Effect on Interest Rates and Real Estate

Join veteran Wall Street traders Todd M. Schoenberger and Tobin Smith on this illuminating episode of "Buy Hold Sell" as they welcome Nicole Middendorf, CEO of Prosperwell Financial. Nicole delves deep into the December Jobs Report, providing invaluable insights on what it signifies for potential interest rate cuts in 2024. Going beyond the stock market, she unveils a comprehensive analysis of how these interest rate dynamics will reverberate in the real estate sector. Get ready for an eye-opening exploration that connects the dots between jobs, interest rates, and the future of real estate.

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Nicole Middendorf Prosperwell Financial
December jobs report analysis
Interest rate cuts 2024
Real estate market outlook
Buy Hold Sell episode
Financial markets insights
Stock market perspectives
Economic trends discussion
Interest rates and stocks
Real estate sector forecast
Todd M Schoenberger
CrossCheck Management
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Tobin Smith
Transformity Investor

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[00:00.000 --> 00:12.000] The December jobs report surprised to the upside and unemployment actually dropped, which was a little bit of a surprise for some Wall Street economists. [00:12.000 --> 00:16.000] But now all the talk is, will we have interest rate cuts this year? [00:16.000 --> 00:22.000] Because when the Fed needs them right now, Wall Street is thinking March is when we're going to see that first rate cut. [00:22.000 --> 00:25.000] Is today's jobs report going to delay that? [00:25.000 --> 00:27.000] And if so, what's that mean for the markets? [00:27.000 --> 00:29.000] Welcome everyone to Buy Hold Sell. [00:29.000 --> 00:38.000] I am your trader Todd Schoenberger, and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith out in sunny and chilly Scottsdale, Arizona. [00:38.000 --> 00:42.000] I got to tell you, Toby, I don't see it, but whatever. [00:42.000 --> 00:46.000] Fifty-two degrees is twenty-two for you, okay? [00:46.000 --> 00:48.000] There you go. There you go. [00:48.000 --> 00:55.000] Well, our guest today actually is thinking, because she did a lot of analysis on a potential interest rate cutter, [00:55.000 --> 01:00.000] actually looking at the broader rate structure and wondering what that means for real estate. [01:00.000 --> 01:07.000] Nicole Midendorf is joining us today, CEO from Prosper Well Financial out of Minnetonka, Minnesota. [01:07.000 --> 01:11.000] I know it's cold there, Nicole. I mean, because I'm cold here in Buffalo. [01:11.000 --> 01:14.000] I'm sure you're feeling it there as well. But thanks for joining the program. [01:14.000 --> 01:19.000] Yeah, thanks for having me. I've got the turtleneck on. It's thirty-three degrees, but no snow. [01:19.000 --> 01:21.000] There you go. Okay. Well, maybe that will come later on. [01:21.000 --> 01:24.000] Isn't this a new do a little bit, Nicole? [01:24.000 --> 01:25.000] What? [01:25.000 --> 01:27.000] The new do, a little new hair program? [01:27.000 --> 01:30.000] No. Same old, same old, same old. [01:30.000 --> 01:31.000] Okay. [01:31.000 --> 01:35.000] I'm going a little darker because it's winter. It's gloomy. [01:35.000 --> 01:40.000] There you go. There you go. Just like the drinks. You got to have the dark drinks right now until Memorial Day. [01:40.000 --> 01:47.000] So, Nicole, I do want to start with you because we have clearly today's jobs report that came out surprised the upside. [01:47.000 --> 01:52.000] Participation rate actually did drop, which explains the drop in unemployment. [01:52.000 --> 01:57.000] But you have an interesting analysis because all the talk is wondering if we're going to have interest rate cuts. [01:57.000 --> 02:04.000] But you seem to think that interest rates are just going to go down on their own, but you also are looking further into this. [02:04.000 --> 02:09.000] Can you explain to the audience what you were, what you explained to us earlier? [02:09.000 --> 02:13.000] Yeah. So, it's specifically like the real estate market. We have a problem. [02:13.000 --> 02:18.000] We have a problem. We have people that can't afford to live in homes. [02:18.000 --> 02:29.000] And so, how is that all going to fix? And for that to get fixed, one of three things needs to happen is income for people needs to go up over 60%. [02:29.000 --> 02:34.000] It's 68%. Well, that's not possible. Like that's not going to happen. [02:34.000 --> 02:41.000] The second thing that would need to happen is the real estate market would need to go down and correct over 30%. [02:41.000 --> 02:43.000] It was 32%. [02:43.000 --> 02:44.000] There you go. [02:45.000 --> 02:48.000] That, I don't know that it's going to go down 30 some percent. [02:48.000 --> 02:52.000] But the third thing is rates need to come down to four and a half. [02:52.000 --> 02:55.000] Well, none of the thing. Mortgage rates have come down. [02:55.000 --> 02:58.000] Mortgage rates. Mortgage rates need to come down to four and a half. [02:58.000 --> 03:00.000] And you have to look at this from a perspective. [03:00.000 --> 03:03.000] Like people are panicking in my eyes. [03:03.000 --> 03:07.000] They're like, oh my God, rates are so high. Rates are so high. [03:07.000 --> 03:13.000] Like if you look historically, rates on average, mortgage rates are 6%. [03:13.000 --> 03:21.000] So, you know, if right now you're getting a mortgage at 7.99, like it really isn't from a long term perspective. [03:21.000 --> 03:23.000] Like that's not the end of the world. [03:23.000 --> 03:27.000] We just got so used to rates of under three and 3%. [03:27.000 --> 03:32.000] And so if you look at like one of those three things happening, I don't know. [03:32.000 --> 03:34.000] I don't see incomes really going up. [03:34.000 --> 03:41.000] I do see the real estate market correcting and I see rates coming down, not mortgage rates coming down to four and a half, [03:41.000 --> 03:44.000] but rates are, yes, going to come down. [03:44.000 --> 03:49.000] I don't know if it's going to be this first round, but at some point this year, I mean, they're going to have to. [03:49.000 --> 03:54.000] And we're already seeing it with like CD rates and things like that. [03:54.000 --> 03:59.000] Yeah, I will say that it feels like the people, first off, the six rate cuts. [03:59.000 --> 04:03.000] I don't know what they're smoking, but they have much better drugs than I do. [04:03.000 --> 04:08.000] For a variety of reasons, starting just with the idea that same person says there's going to be six rate cuts, [04:08.000 --> 04:11.000] since we're going to have a 5,200 S&P. [04:11.000 --> 04:20.000] Well, dude, the reason why we have six rate cuts is if we have a freaking depression or a massive shutdown in the economy. [04:20.000 --> 04:24.000] And they would do that the way they did that in front of the pandemic. [04:24.000 --> 04:28.000] So you can't have both of this, in my opinion. [04:28.000 --> 04:30.000] You can't expect. [04:30.000 --> 04:41.000] What you can't expect is that the core inflation in Nicole's point that's holding everything up is rents, leases, mortgage, shelter costs. [04:41.000 --> 04:44.000] And shelter costs are 54% of the core now. [04:44.000 --> 04:46.000] They have to come down. [04:46.000 --> 04:49.000] And so that's the intrigue here. [04:49.000 --> 04:51.000] If interest rates come down, mortgage rates come down. [04:51.000 --> 04:55.000] That makes places more affordable, which puts a bit into the market for housing. [04:56.000 --> 05:03.000] And at the same time, if rates are coming down, then interest sensitive sectors will do better. [05:03.000 --> 05:09.000] And in sectors, particularly that are on variable rates, loads, et cetera, so they will come down. [05:09.000 --> 05:14.000] But the people sitting with the 40% of people who own their homes for cash don't care. [05:14.000 --> 05:22.000] The people that have 32% on top of that, that finance their houses with less than a 2% of freaking mortgage, they're not moving. [05:22.000 --> 05:35.000] So we still have the same intractable problem is that the only new homes that are being built are built in areas like here out in North Scotts and other places where people are coming in from California with cash and buying them for cash. [05:35.000 --> 05:42.000] Or you're out in Bufu, nowhere. And yeah, you got a great house, but it takes you 70 minutes to go to the shopping center. [05:42.000 --> 05:52.000] It's not a simple formula, but that's why people are moving to Oklahoma, Tulsa. [05:52.000 --> 05:55.000] Do you see some of the numbers now? [05:55.000 --> 06:11.000] Even out of the country, even out of the country, people are moving to less expensive locations to be able to afford it because I mean, you go to the grocery store and you're buying a little thing of freshly cut pineapple and it costs you $12. [06:11.000 --> 06:16.000] I mean, it's, it's astronomical. You're living high end, okay. [06:16.000 --> 06:21.000] In the middle class, we actually buy the pineapple and we cut it ourselves. [06:21.000 --> 06:27.000] I do do that sometimes, but the other day I did not have time to cut the pineapple. [06:27.000 --> 06:29.000] I know. [06:29.000 --> 06:30.000] That was a bad shot. [06:30.000 --> 06:35.000] Pineapple is the best for to boost your metabolism. [06:35.000 --> 06:51.000] That's good. That's good enough. I got to say, when we saw, when we saw the number come out today, the markets clearly sold off because there was that uncertainty wondering, okay, how could the Fed possibly start cutting rates because the economy seems to be so healthy right now. [06:51.000 --> 06:57.000] And I think that's where the, really where the conundrum is for Wall Street right now. [06:57.000 --> 07:00.000] And that's why we haven't started off so well in equities. [07:00.000 --> 07:08.000] We clearly missed the Santa Claus rally, but now as we move forward this year, and you're right Toby talking about six rate cuts. [07:08.000 --> 07:20.000] I mean, it's, that means I got to get started in March and I don't see it happening because the economy continues to be at least strong or healthy moving forward at least. [07:20.000 --> 07:36.000] Yeah, there were two things and it's the point where parts of you go deeply into it. One was, was that the number of immigrants who took new jobs was almost at a historic rate and I got some feedback from subscribers and some clients saying, [07:37.000 --> 07:45.000] The Democrats are taking all our jobs. Really? Come on, man. Yeah. The boomers. No one else will work. No one else will work. No one else doesn't want to work. [07:45.000 --> 08:00.000] The 40% on the home screen clear. They're not working. Many of the boomers. We got 10,000 turning 65 every day till 2031. You got 5,000 turning 70. They're not going to take the freaking sweat and hustle job. [08:00.000 --> 08:05.000] And you know, I don't know if you remember this history of people out there, but you know, this is an immigrant country. [08:05.000 --> 08:17.000] I'm from Northern Ireland, the Scottish and Irish got together and came over here in 1789. You can tell this is a Friday show. Yeah. I mean, come on, man. [08:17.000 --> 08:32.000] You know, we don't have enough babies. We have 37% of kids between 21 and 30 living at home. You know, I get it. Why would you expect anything else? [08:32.000 --> 08:43.000] So Nicole, for your investors, I mean, they like, I'm sure they're like most people. We've been hearing about this 5 trillion dollars that's sitting in money market funds. [08:43.000 --> 08:51.000] I was asking Dr. Ed the other day on the show on buyhold. So we were wondering what I want to ask you, what are your clients doing? [08:51.000 --> 08:57.000] Are they still in cash? They missed the rally in the fourth quarter or are they starting to get back into equities? [08:57.000 --> 09:04.000] People are starting to get back in, but people overall are holding more cash, particularly on their non-retirement accounts. [09:04.000 --> 09:14.000] I still am seeing tons of people that have like, we just had another new client that called today, 200 grand in our checking accounts. Right. Wow. [09:14.000 --> 09:25.000] And, and I, you know, we went through this pandemic and people are like, oh my God. And so, and then the talk of inflation out there just that scares people. [09:25.000 --> 09:39.000] And so a lot of people are kind of hoarding money. Now, having said that, I'm also seeing like you look at the statistics that show savings rates are going down and credit card debt is going up. [09:39.000 --> 09:49.000] And so that is not a good thing, but overall, people are very cautiously optimistic about where we are and investing their money. [09:49.000 --> 10:02.000] I mean, that's where, you know, we're still doing lots of structured CDs. We're still doing buffered ETFs, you know, investing money with some, with some protection around it because the average person is a little, is a little scared and nervous. [10:02.000 --> 10:14.000] The other thing too, we're also seeing is a lot of people are having sudden layoffs that they were not prepared for. And there's, and there's this talk that more and more of that may be coming. [10:14.000 --> 10:24.000] Yeah, right sizing after the craze. I will say this, client come in and a new client, client same dealio. And this is like, you know, three, four million bucks, right? [10:24.000 --> 10:32.000] She's got a million dollars in because she was so smart. She bought those 5%, you know, six months CDs, etc. [10:32.000 --> 10:43.000] But I said, honey, you live in California. Do you understand you didn't earn 5% at your income level and your investment income after you pay tax in California. [10:43.000 --> 10:53.000] And then after you pay the federal tax, and then you pay the tax because you didn't take any money out of these accounts. So now you're going to be after you owe more taxes, you're probably going to make 2%. [10:53.000 --> 11:04.000] Whereas, if you were, you know, with us being very tactical all during the year, you'd be up 40%. It would be in your IRA or be in your Roth, and you wouldn't do that. [11:04.000 --> 11:15.000] And she looked at me start about to cry. Who was your advisor? I mean, you was telling you you're just getting rich on 5%. Wait till you see that tax bill girlfriend. [11:15.000 --> 11:23.000] So right. Well, there's gonna be a lot of that that happened. Don't you think to call the people are gonna say, Oh, gee, I totally forgot about right. [11:23.000 --> 11:33.000] And also, I mean, you talked about the number of people turning 65. There, there's a lot of those people that are business owners, and they're passing their business on in the next generations. [11:33.000 --> 11:47.000] And that particularly here in Minnesota, we're so high tax. Yeah, that's a huge, that's a huge issue. So we're seeing a lot of like gifting of the stock of the business into that next generation, lots of succession planning talk. [11:47.000 --> 12:00.000] Wow. I'm sure of that. Well, listen, we're gonna leave it there on this block, because coming up next, we have to ask Nicole if she's going to start changing her allocation for her clients, based off of the jobs number and potential of interest rates dropping. [12:00.000 --> 12:09.000] But with us today, Nicole Midendorf. She's the CEO across the world. And we will be right back after the break. [12:09.000 --> 12:17.000] Stay with us. [12:17.000 --> 12:22.000] Buy hold sell brought to you by cross check management. [12:22.000 --> 12:33.000] Hi, my name is Joe Grogan. And I'm Eric Yulin for DCEKG. DCEKG is all about the how and why of Washington DC, what's going on, what's going on behind the headlines. [12:33.000 --> 12:43.000] We spend a lot of time talking about health care and economic policy, but frequently delve into trade policy and sometimes national security or whatever's happening on Capitol Hill. [12:43.000 --> 12:51.000] Between Joe and I, we have nearly five decades of Washington experience. We put that to work with our guests to explain to you what's going on in Washington. [12:51.000 --> 13:00.000] I always found myself calling Eric when I didn't understand what was happening and always found him to be really good at explaining to me some of the things that I wasn't seeing. [13:00.000 --> 13:03.000] And I hope our guests will get the same type of insights. [13:03.000 --> 13:11.000] I always found myself talking to Joe when I couldn't believe what I was seeing happening to understand exactly how the heck we got to where we were. [13:11.000 --> 13:27.000] Tune in to DCEKG anywhere podcasts or YouTubes are available. You won't regret it. [13:27.000 --> 13:32.000] Ready to up your game and learn more about the thrilling world of sports betting? [13:32.000 --> 13:37.000] Introducing Double Down with Breslow, the ultimate podcast about the business of sports gambling. 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[14:35.000 --> 14:39.000] And Emergent Risk International coming this fall. [14:39.000 --> 14:43.000] Tune in to disinformation wherever you get your podcasts. [14:43.000 --> 14:46.000] And remember, don't believe everything you read. [15:05.000 --> 15:11.000] With the December jobs report surprised on the upside, and we actually saw her first update of the year. [15:11.000 --> 15:20.000] It must be because of our guests because she obviously brought the good luck for not just this show, but also for all the traders out there. [15:20.000 --> 15:25.000] But with us today is Nicole Mindendorf. She is the CEO of Prosper Well Financial. [15:25.000 --> 15:32.000] On a minute talk of Minnesota, you can go to ProsperWell.com to see all of Nicole's offerings and what she has to say there. [15:32.000 --> 15:39.000] But Nicole, when we left off on the last block, we were talking about the potential of rates dropping and what that could possibly mean for real estate. [15:39.000 --> 15:46.000] You're an avid reader. You read all the time. You're just like Toby. Toby, I think, is an actual professional reader. [15:46.000 --> 15:47.000] I am a professional reader. [15:47.000 --> 15:50.000] Absolutely. The knowledge is just coming in. [15:50.000 --> 15:58.000] You actually read something, though, that as optimistic as everyone is right now, this actually drew some concern for you. [15:58.000 --> 16:01.000] Can you explain to the audience what the article was about? [16:01.000 --> 16:05.000] Yeah, I mean, everything I see this year is like this year is going to be good. [16:05.000 --> 16:06.000] It's great. [16:06.000 --> 16:08.000] Everyone's very optimistic. [16:08.000 --> 16:13.000] But it was this whole booklet, and it really looked at the next 10 years. [16:13.000 --> 16:19.000] It took me a couple of nights to read it because I had to stop reading it because I was getting so depressed. [16:19.000 --> 16:21.000] It was like doom and gloom. [16:21.000 --> 16:23.000] Because I'm looking at where am I? [16:23.000 --> 16:25.000] Where am I in my career? [16:25.000 --> 16:26.000] And I'm getting closer to retirement. [16:26.000 --> 16:29.000] I'm like, seriously, I'm in the prime. [16:29.000 --> 16:31.000] This is supposed to be the best next 10 years for me. [16:31.000 --> 16:35.000] I'm like, seriously, single digit returns. [16:35.000 --> 16:36.000] Things aren't going to be great. [16:36.000 --> 16:43.000] Everything from population to politics to, you name it, it was very doom and gloom. [16:43.000 --> 16:45.000] What were they selling, though, Nicole? [16:45.000 --> 16:47.000] What were they selling? [16:47.000 --> 16:48.000] Yeah. [16:48.000 --> 16:49.000] Mutual funds investments. [16:49.000 --> 16:52.000] Okay, yeah, but it's a mutual fund that short is set up for progress. [16:52.000 --> 16:54.000] Yeah, for short. [16:54.000 --> 16:55.000] Exactly. [16:55.000 --> 16:59.000] Remember, financial publisher here, editor for 25 years. [16:59.000 --> 17:03.000] I'll put together a report, research report, et cetera. [17:03.000 --> 17:05.000] And then you'll give it to the copywriters. [17:05.000 --> 17:10.000] And they would take one sentence out of the thing and try to get a headline. [17:10.000 --> 17:15.000] And then we only have one emotion in investing is fear. [17:15.000 --> 17:19.000] It's either fear of loss or fear of FOMO missing out. [17:19.000 --> 17:24.000] So if you're trying to get headlines, just take that one first paragraph [17:24.000 --> 17:29.000] and scare the crap out of people or say that if you don't do this now, [17:29.000 --> 17:31.000] you're going to miss out on this finance and you're going to be poorer [17:31.000 --> 17:34.000] than that Porsche love your brother line can't stand. [17:34.000 --> 17:37.000] You know, it's it's copyright. [17:37.000 --> 17:42.000] And, you know, I think people should actually have to read a two page [17:42.000 --> 17:45.000] disclaimer that says if you're going to you're going to be subscribing [17:45.000 --> 17:48.000] to financial publications, remember that they're going to try to scare [17:48.000 --> 17:52.000] the crap out of you or they're kind of trying to hit your greed button [17:52.000 --> 17:56.000] and you need to be able to pull back like my my camera shot is right [17:56.000 --> 17:58.000] here. [17:58.000 --> 18:00.000] I've been in happy hours. [18:00.000 --> 18:04.000] For those that are listening, you definitely want to watch the video. [18:04.000 --> 18:05.000] Yeah. [18:05.000 --> 18:07.000] So, Nicole, I mean, so you're reading this. [18:07.000 --> 18:09.000] It makes you depressed, brings you down. [18:09.000 --> 18:12.000] But overall, you still seem to be optimistic. [18:12.000 --> 18:13.000] What's your take? [18:13.000 --> 18:15.000] What are you telling your clients for 2024? [18:15.000 --> 18:20.000] Is now a good time to be in equities or should everybody stay on the sidelines? [18:20.000 --> 18:24.000] Well, we are finding that a lot of people have a lot of cash and with [18:24.000 --> 18:27.000] anything, it's never best to just like if you have two hundred grand [18:27.000 --> 18:31.000] senior checking account, it doesn't mean like go tomorrow or Monday [18:31.000 --> 18:33.000] and put all that money into the market. [18:33.000 --> 18:38.000] It's looking at, OK, where where did I end up for last year? [18:38.000 --> 18:42.000] Where am I and what where are there some opportunities or what am I [18:42.000 --> 18:43.000] short in? [18:43.000 --> 18:46.000] Because I'm really finding a lot of people don't pay enough attention to [18:46.000 --> 18:48.000] their money, in my opinion. [18:48.000 --> 18:52.000] And, you know, most of the time, especially if you have a couple, you have [18:52.000 --> 18:54.000] a husband, a wife and they're adding to their retirement plans. [18:54.000 --> 18:55.000] They're for one case. [18:55.000 --> 18:56.000] They're IRAs. [18:56.000 --> 18:57.000] They're busy with their kids. [18:57.000 --> 18:59.000] They've got their five twenty nine plans. [18:59.000 --> 19:03.000] And it's like you need to really take an assessment of where you are. [19:03.000 --> 19:06.000] And it's it surprises me, but it doesn't. [19:06.000 --> 19:10.000] The amount of people that when when I meet them, I'm like, oh, my gosh, [19:10.000 --> 19:12.000] like, are you like this couple the other day? [19:12.000 --> 19:14.000] I'm like, are you kidding me? [19:14.000 --> 19:15.000] You've been adding one. [19:15.000 --> 19:19.000] The wife had not been adding to her retirement plan at her work. [19:19.000 --> 19:22.000] They're they're super high income. [19:22.000 --> 19:25.000] So one, they're just hurting themselves tax wise. [19:25.000 --> 19:29.000] But then they had they had over 50 percent of their money invested [19:29.000 --> 19:30.000] internationally. [19:30.000 --> 19:34.000] And so so many times it's pay attention. [19:34.000 --> 19:37.000] You know, just all of a sudden, OK, if I have all this cash, [19:37.000 --> 19:38.000] it doesn't mean throw it in. [19:38.000 --> 19:41.000] It's really take a good assessment of where are you. [19:41.000 --> 19:42.000] Where are you short? [19:42.000 --> 19:43.000] Where are you missing? [19:43.000 --> 19:46.000] And what pieces could make the most sense for you for your puzzle? [19:46.000 --> 19:49.000] If you say pieces or pieces, I couldn't I couldn't tell. [19:49.000 --> 19:52.000] He's pieces for your puzzle. [19:52.000 --> 19:55.000] So, you know, my favorite one was someone also recently came in [19:55.000 --> 20:00.000] and their Asian background and they were buying the dip in China. [20:00.000 --> 20:05.000] You know, the dip in 2021, the dip in 2022, the dip in 23. [20:05.000 --> 20:08.000] And I was like, do you ever look at this stuff? [20:08.000 --> 20:12.000] I mean, or what's your premise that all of a sudden China is going [20:12.000 --> 20:15.000] to change or this deep polarization is going to change [20:15.000 --> 20:18.000] or the fact that they don't have enough children or all that stuff. [20:18.000 --> 20:22.000] And it's almost like they get a meme in their head, man, [20:22.000 --> 20:25.000] you're going to make a lot of money and they just keep doing it. [20:25.000 --> 20:31.000] And they probably lost 400 grand just by being 25 percent in China [20:31.000 --> 20:34.000] because, God damn it, I'm going to be right one of these days. [20:34.000 --> 20:37.000] Right. I'm hearing it most like the stubborn. [20:37.000 --> 20:38.000] I know it's going to be happening. [20:38.000 --> 20:39.000] OK, great. [20:39.000 --> 20:43.000] I'd advise you go to someone who will take care of your [20:43.000 --> 20:47.000] psychological problems because that's not what I do. [20:47.000 --> 20:48.000] OK. [20:48.000 --> 20:49.000] That's funny. That's funny. [20:49.000 --> 20:52.000] So, Nicole, what about the presidential election? [20:52.000 --> 20:56.000] You know, Jeffrey Hirsch has said and regardless of who you're [20:56.000 --> 20:58.000] favoring or whatever, that's not the point. [20:58.000 --> 21:02.000] But but Jeff actually brought up a good point from the stock [21:02.000 --> 21:06.000] trader's almanac that for the incumbent, as long as they run, [21:06.000 --> 21:09.000] the S&P historically has gone up eight percent. [21:09.000 --> 21:14.000] If they don't run, then you see the S&P drop one and a half percent. [21:14.000 --> 21:17.000] I know a lot of people are still scratching their heads wondering if Biden's [21:17.000 --> 21:18.000] still running. [21:18.000 --> 21:21.000] But do you get a lot of clients that are asking you about this? [21:21.000 --> 21:24.000] Because one thing that we've noticed with the guests coming on by Hold [21:24.000 --> 21:27.000] Cell is that this is a recurring theme. [21:27.000 --> 21:30.000] They do bring up the election, the election cycle, [21:30.000 --> 21:31.000] and how that can impact equities. [21:31.000 --> 21:32.000] But what do you think? [21:32.000 --> 21:36.000] Yep. I feel like every four years my world is like, oh, everything's [21:36.000 --> 21:38.000] great because it's an election year. [21:38.000 --> 21:40.000] But that really I mean, that really is the truth. [21:40.000 --> 21:43.000] I don't want to say like, you know, you have all these statistics of like [21:43.000 --> 21:48.000] who was running, who got elected, you know, and I feel like people put [21:48.000 --> 21:51.000] too much weight on the presidential election. [21:51.000 --> 21:55.000] I feel like, you know, what can one person actually change? [21:55.000 --> 22:00.000] But it's that leader that like drives us to where we are and, you know, [22:00.000 --> 22:04.000] helps and makes changes from taxes, you know, policies, you name it. [22:04.000 --> 22:09.000] But I feel like people put so much emphasis, too much emphasis on election [22:09.000 --> 22:10.000] and historical results. [22:10.000 --> 22:14.000] But yes, historically, an election year is always a good thing for the [22:14.000 --> 22:15.000] market. [22:15.000 --> 22:20.000] Yeah, I mean, it's a better year when the president and the Congress [22:20.000 --> 22:24.000] are on the same team because then they spend a lot more. [22:24.000 --> 22:28.000] And so if you take Jeffries, Almanac Numbers, who've been just dead [22:28.000 --> 22:31.000] right on everything, and you then you go to the way when they both, [22:31.000 --> 22:35.000] you know, the same parties in charge, those are really good years. [22:35.000 --> 22:42.000] So because, you know, the stuff, the, you know, all the money that's [22:42.000 --> 22:47.000] going to certain areas, the graft, excuse me, I mean, money going to [22:47.000 --> 22:49.000] other projects. [22:49.000 --> 22:52.000] So it does historically, but also somewhat of a self-fulfilling [22:52.000 --> 22:53.000] prophecy. [22:53.000 --> 22:56.000] Now, there's take the other side of it, which is, you know, as goes [22:57.000 --> 22:59.000] January, so goes the year. [22:59.000 --> 23:02.000] I think first up, they're disregarding the fact that we had a nine [23:02.000 --> 23:06.000] week run, which is historically very rare. [23:06.000 --> 23:10.000] And people who pay taxes were saying, you know, I'm not really going [23:10.000 --> 23:13.000] to take that $500,000 profit. [23:13.000 --> 23:15.000] I have an Nvidia that went up for me. [23:15.000 --> 23:20.000] You know, I think we're up 270 percent on Nvidia. [23:20.000 --> 23:24.000] And I said, you know, let's do something else unless you have some, [23:24.000 --> 23:26.000] you know, other stuff, you can go against that. [23:26.000 --> 23:30.000] But whatever you do, don't sell it on December 30th, you bonehead. [23:30.000 --> 23:37.000] And it's, but this is, I'm just saying, this is a natural course [23:37.000 --> 23:39.000] of a melt up. [23:39.000 --> 23:44.000] And then the short term investors who were momentum and the [23:44.000 --> 23:46.000] algorithms were running the money for them. [23:46.000 --> 23:49.000] Instead, we just keep piling on, keep piling on, keep piling on. [23:49.000 --> 23:51.000] We move our sell stuff, sell stuff. [23:51.000 --> 23:54.000] And that's one segment of the market. [23:54.000 --> 23:56.000] Nicole's segment of the market, a whole different crew. [23:56.000 --> 24:00.000] Nobody's day trader, I assume, in your organization. [24:00.000 --> 24:04.000] Or the algorithms aren't, you know, buying momentum. [24:04.000 --> 24:10.000] My favorite one is yesterday, 84 percent of all trades on the [24:10.000 --> 24:12.000] NASDAQ and New York Stock Exchange were algorithms. [24:12.000 --> 24:13.000] Wow. [24:13.000 --> 24:18.000] Because the algorithm said, if you've been above the 20 day [24:19.000 --> 24:23.000] moving average for six weeks in a row and it drops, you sell. [24:23.000 --> 24:26.000] And particularly if it's a new year, right? [24:26.000 --> 24:30.000] So it's hard to explain to people that there is a market of [24:30.000 --> 24:36.000] stocks and there's the 80 percent plus that trade not based [24:36.000 --> 24:39.000] on the fundamentals, not based on the company, not based on [24:39.000 --> 24:42.000] their macroeconomic, it's just rule based. [24:42.000 --> 24:43.000] Yeah. [24:43.000 --> 24:46.000] And some of the biggest hedge funds in the world are just [24:46.000 --> 24:47.000] rule based. [24:47.000 --> 24:50.000] And if they decide on Tuesday to sell Nvidia, it's going to [24:50.000 --> 24:53.000] be down 15, you know, 10 percent. [24:53.000 --> 24:54.000] Right. [24:54.000 --> 24:55.000] Right. [24:55.000 --> 24:58.000] You also have people that are selling for their like their [24:58.000 --> 25:01.000] life, like they're they're taking their RMDs in the [25:01.000 --> 25:02.000] beginning of the year. [25:02.000 --> 25:05.000] They're selling because they had gains or what, you [25:05.000 --> 25:07.000] know, they're selling in their non-retirement accounts [25:07.000 --> 25:09.000] to add to their Roth IRAs. [25:09.000 --> 25:11.000] I mean, there's so many different we're having lots [25:11.000 --> 25:14.000] of clients that are selling for, you know, lots of [25:14.000 --> 25:15.000] people are like, I've had it. [25:15.000 --> 25:18.000] And I'm taking my kids on this trip or I'm doing these [25:18.000 --> 25:19.000] things. [25:19.000 --> 25:20.000] Right. [25:20.000 --> 25:21.000] Right. [25:21.000 --> 25:23.000] There's lots of paying off debt. [25:23.000 --> 25:25.000] I mean, lots, lots of liquidations these these [25:25.000 --> 25:27.000] first couple of days this year. [25:27.000 --> 25:28.000] Right. [25:28.000 --> 25:30.000] But that makes sense, though. [25:30.000 --> 25:33.000] It's like happens every day, you know, every [25:33.000 --> 25:36.000] January as much as much money as we have coming in [25:36.000 --> 25:38.000] of people adding to their IRAs and they're starting [25:38.000 --> 25:40.000] their contributions for that year. [25:40.000 --> 25:42.000] We also have tons of people that are pulling money [25:42.000 --> 25:46.000] out for the RMDs and, you know, just living their [25:46.000 --> 25:47.000] life. [25:47.000 --> 25:48.000] What are the RMDs? [25:48.000 --> 25:49.000] I'm sorry. [25:49.000 --> 25:50.000] Required minimum distributions. [25:50.000 --> 25:51.000] Oh, oh, I'm sorry. [25:51.000 --> 25:52.000] Okay. [25:52.000 --> 25:53.000] I was hearing B, not D. [25:53.000 --> 25:55.000] I thought you were talking about the Chinese [25:55.000 --> 25:56.000] remembering. [25:56.000 --> 25:58.000] You're not, you're not that, you're not that [25:58.000 --> 25:59.000] old yet. [25:59.000 --> 26:00.000] Yeah. [26:00.000 --> 26:01.000] You've got a few years. [26:01.000 --> 26:02.000] Yeah. [26:02.000 --> 26:03.000] Holy mackerel. [26:03.000 --> 26:04.000] Right. [26:04.000 --> 26:05.000] Something to look forward to. [26:05.000 --> 26:06.000] Yeah, exactly. [26:06.000 --> 26:09.000] Well, listen, I'm the biggest proponent of the [26:09.000 --> 26:10.000] ROA. [26:10.000 --> 26:14.000] And I'll do the math for people if they have some [26:14.000 --> 26:17.000] losses and we can roll, you know, some of these [26:17.000 --> 26:18.000] into a ROA. [26:18.000 --> 26:23.000] And then these weekly dividend ETFs, I know you're [26:23.000 --> 26:25.000] familiar, just roll, roll, roll. [26:25.000 --> 26:28.000] The freaking compound return is stupid [26:28.000 --> 26:29.000] and ridiculous. [26:29.000 --> 26:30.000] Yeah. [26:30.000 --> 26:32.000] And we have yield backs on. [26:32.000 --> 26:34.000] We've had defiance on. [26:34.000 --> 26:36.000] And they really turned me on to this. [26:36.000 --> 26:38.000] For a ROA, it's just ridiculous. [26:38.000 --> 26:41.000] The annual, the compound return on, let's say, [26:41.000 --> 26:44.000] their top five ETFs, we just got our, we have [26:44.000 --> 26:49.000] for $100 million, we got 2.8, excuse me, $3.8 [26:49.000 --> 26:52.000] million in dividends just from $100 million. [26:52.000 --> 26:54.000] So do that math, right? [26:54.000 --> 26:55.000] Right. [26:55.000 --> 26:57.000] And then we reinvest it. [26:57.000 --> 27:00.000] And because, you know, with the day the dividend [27:00.000 --> 27:03.000] goes, or the day the dividend, the price comes [27:03.000 --> 27:04.000] down, et cetera. [27:04.000 --> 27:07.000] So then when they pay, we reinvest, but they're [27:08.000 --> 27:11.000] underlying stocks we own anyway as well. [27:11.000 --> 27:12.000] It's pretty hard to beat, man. [27:12.000 --> 27:14.000] I mean, it's hard to beat. [27:14.000 --> 27:15.000] You got that right. [27:15.000 --> 27:17.000] Nicole, before we close out the show, [27:17.000 --> 27:20.000] I have to ask you, favorite sectors for 2024, [27:20.000 --> 27:22.000] what are you telling your clients? [27:22.000 --> 27:25.000] Technology, healthcare, like that's, I mean, [27:25.000 --> 27:27.000] that's where you just look at, even though [27:27.000 --> 27:30.000] people are getting older, people are getting older. [27:30.000 --> 27:32.000] I mean, the amount of people that are, [27:32.000 --> 27:34.000] if a client is in her 80s, who's having her total, [27:34.000 --> 27:36.000] her total shoulder replaced on Monday. [27:36.000 --> 27:38.000] So healthcare, healthcare and tech. [27:38.000 --> 27:41.000] And then at the same standpoint, like consumer staples, [27:41.000 --> 27:43.000] like taking that from a standpoint of like, okay, [27:43.000 --> 27:47.000] like people are not going to be spending money like they were before, [27:47.000 --> 27:48.000] in my opinion. [27:48.000 --> 27:51.000] So playing, playing those dividend stocks. [27:51.000 --> 27:53.000] But within, within healthcare, because healthcare's [27:53.000 --> 27:55.000] stuck last year, as you know, [27:55.000 --> 27:59.000] you know, pharmaceutical, biotech, GLP one, [27:59.000 --> 28:01.000] you know, for instance, we're long Amazon. [28:01.000 --> 28:04.000] We've been long, you know, no vote for a while. [28:04.000 --> 28:08.000] But Amazon also has a very exciting GLP one, [28:08.000 --> 28:11.000] a weight loss drug that's about 30 days away from, [28:11.000 --> 28:15.000] I think 30 to 60 to be approved. [28:15.000 --> 28:20.000] And it sells it much lower than its normal price earnings ratio. [28:20.000 --> 28:26.000] They're going to sell direct just the way Lilly just started this week. [28:26.000 --> 28:31.000] I told Todd, I made a beef Wellington for 10 people for new years. [28:31.000 --> 28:34.000] I got the pho guan there. I got the duck cells in there. [28:34.000 --> 28:40.000] So turn it out that six of the people are on freaking vitamin O osemic. [28:40.000 --> 28:44.000] And they only ate half of what they normally would eat. [28:44.000 --> 28:47.000] So I'm still like, you know, I've got the freezer, [28:47.000 --> 28:50.000] refrigerator full of freaking beef Wellington. [28:50.000 --> 28:52.000] You can only eat that so many days, Todd. [28:52.000 --> 28:53.000] I'm just telling you right now. [28:53.000 --> 28:55.000] I'll be over there on Monday for the championship game. [28:55.000 --> 28:58.000] So there you go. [28:58.000 --> 29:00.000] So we're going to leave it there on the show, guys. [29:00.000 --> 29:03.000] So we want to thank you, Nicole, for joining us today. [29:03.000 --> 29:04.000] I said it all. [29:04.000 --> 29:07.000] We want to invite the audience to go to prosper.com, [29:07.000 --> 29:12.000] prosperwell.com to see what Nicole has to say there [29:12.000 --> 29:16.000] and all of her, her offerings there as well. [29:16.000 --> 29:21.000] Consider an email when it's minus 20 in the next four days. [29:21.000 --> 29:22.000] Yes, absolutely. [29:22.000 --> 29:25.000] Funny, funny. [29:25.000 --> 29:27.000] But Nicole, thank you so much for joining us today. [29:27.000 --> 29:29.000] You're very welcome. [29:29.000 --> 29:30.000] Thank you so much. [29:30.000 --> 29:31.000] Thank you so much. [29:31.000 --> 29:33.000] So one of you have also called the door and hope it's [29:33.000 --> 29:34.000] that I know. [29:34.000 --> 29:39.000] Thank you once again for joining us on buy a whole show. [29:39.000 --> 29:40.000] Have a great weekend. [29:40.000 --> 29:41.000] We'll see you next week. [29:41.000 --> 29:42.000] We have Sam Stilwell. [29:42.000 --> 29:43.000] Definitely her. [29:43.000 --> 29:44.000] Gina Martin Adams. [29:44.000 --> 29:45.000] We're joining the show. [29:45.000 --> 29:47.000] Can't wait to have you back again as well. [29:47.000 --> 29:55.000] Take care. [29:55.000 --> 29:56.000] Bye. [29:56.000 --> 29:59.000] Hold cell brought to you by cross-check management. [29:59.000 --> 30:03.000] A news story gets shared by a friend on social media [30:03.000 --> 30:07.000] or you catch a tweet that really makes your blood boil. [30:07.000 --> 30:10.000] But how do you separate fact from fiction? [30:10.000 --> 30:13.000] That's the premise behind disinformation, [30:13.000 --> 30:18.000] a 10 part series from every green podcasts and emergent risk [30:18.000 --> 30:22.000] international coming this fall to an into disinformation [30:22.000 --> 30:24.000] wherever you get your podcasts. [30:24.000 --> 30:27.000] And remember don't believe everything you read. 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Financial Forefront: Nicole Middendorf Unravels the December Jobs Report and its Ripple Effect on Interest Rates and Real Estate

Financial Forefront: Nicole Middendorf Unravels the December Jobs Report and its Ripple Effect on Interest Rates and Real Estate

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