Exploring Taylornomics: September Jobs Report & Earnings Season Predictions with Lindsey Bell on Buy Hold Sell

[00:00:09] Blowout! That's what Wall Street analysts are calling the September Jobs Report at $366,000 new jobs created in the US economy, then looking at an August revision of another $155,000. This is a roaring market. We saw the stock market actually had a knee-jerk reaction

[00:00:27] because everybody thought the Fed would continue to hike rates so they sold off, then we had a complete reversal. But our guest today actually thinks that the consumer is driving this growth inequities and she's actually optimistic, cautiously optimistic for

[00:00:40] the fourth quarter. Welcome everyone to Buy Hold Sell. I am your trader Todd Schoenberger and I am joined by my friend and co-host Tobin Smith out in sunny and hot Scottsdale, Arizona. It's warm outside. It looks nice and sunny though. I'll tell you that. And our feature

[00:00:57] guest today is Lindsey Bell. She is the chief strategist at 248 Ventures Down in beautiful Charlotte, North Carolina. Welcome to the program Lindsey. Thanks for having me. Absolutely. Well,

[00:01:09] we had a turn to you. We know that we had to get an optimistic feel. We had a couple of guests on this week that I would say are a little bit on the pessimistic side. A little bit? We want to

[00:01:18] go into the long weekend thinking things are looking up and so who else to turn to but Pittsburgh's finest. I know you're down at Charlotte but you are a Pittsburgh girl. But Lindsey, what was the turnaround all about today? Yeah, you know a lot of people were,

[00:01:32] I think there were a lot of things at play here. I think a lot of people initially pointed to the wage number, which was a little bit lighter than expected. That's a good sign obviously for

[00:01:41] when you're thinking about what's going to happen with inflation. It also means that maybe the Fed could potentially be done. But I think it was more to it than that. I think that this

[00:01:50] was like, this was a good jobs report. Okay? This was where supply, which has been weak, is actually starting to catch up with the demand that has been really strong by corporations.

[00:02:01] So I think you're starting to see that kind of balance each other out, which is a good thing. But the other question that I have is a lot of the bears I think in the market right now

[00:02:11] are talking about the yield curve, the 10 year yield. We're seeing a bear steepening as they call that as a 10 year yield rise is faster than the two year yield. And a lot of people

[00:02:23] are worried that that is because of the supply of treasuries coming into the market rather than strong economic growth. Those are two very different things. And I think today's jobs report really showed that the economy is strong, but maybe not too strong. Like I said, supply catching

[00:02:38] up with demand in the jobs market and inflation, at least from a wage perspective is remaining under control. So I think that yields backed off and that allowed the stock market to rally

[00:02:50] into the end of the day. Todd, I also had a couple of things. I mean, technically, it's very interesting today. So one of the things that we follow is just trade size.

[00:02:59] And trade size was saying that it was retail people who were selling and we had people who essentially this was like the capitulative day where yesterday you had big units selling. I would call this the exhaustion type of bottom where everybody who had to sell,

[00:03:18] who was getting a margin call was so and so forth. That happened by about 11 o'clock. But yesterday it deteriorated simply because it's simpler to say, hey, you know what? We're going to have over 5% interest rate on the 10 year buy. Rick Centelli was saying on CNBC 13%.

[00:03:35] I just said I'm a text and I said, Rick, are you drinking again? I mean, come on man. Yeah, that was a wild prediction. I thought I mean, and you know, he was using like technical analysis. I said, well, it looks like a biogre chart, Rick. That doesn't

[00:03:48] look like an actual chart. But be that as it may, he is you know, people he's on all day. He's on in every trade room I've ever been in when he comes up with 13% number.

[00:03:58] But it was it was an exhaustion sale. Does that change any of the macro? No. What's confusing I think for everybody probably not Lindsay, but everybody else, you know, not from Pittsburgh is that everything that used to be in a playbook is now idiosyncratic.

[00:04:14] The playbook never had any of this stuff before. The playbook never had, you're going to have quantitative tightening. Does anybody talk about that? That's $95 billion a month. But it's no one's ever quantified it. And the fact that it's being sold when 10 years

[00:04:29] went up, the market was putting the 10 years up, not the Fed. And that was a supply demand imbalance, right? There was too much supply coming out over the last three days on QT

[00:04:38] and other side. And then the other thing that came really out Todd was that I don't think a lot of people know, unless you work like Lindsay and I do with pension plans, actual big pension plans, their bond profiles on average are down 48%. That was in Bloomberg

[00:04:52] yesterday. And if you're down 48%, I used to sell bonds, but I love bonds. That's how I started. But if you're down 48% in your bond portfolio in terms of valuation, yeah, then you've got multiple problems. I mean, you're going to hold them till, you know, the fruition,

[00:05:09] right? You're going to hold them till they get redeemed. But now you're going to need to do something to rebuild valuation. And so that makes the case for the magnificent seven, which I'll end

[00:05:20] with this, everything that we trade, everything that we look at, everything we measure is the new life raft, which used to be utilities. That's gone. The new life raft used to be consumer staples. That's down. I love the fact that, you know, that vitamin V is what's

[00:05:38] getting every people to eat at 50% less. So therefore now, you know, they're not snacking. And so the safest part in the storm are the 10 tech companies that have $750 billion of cash that at four and a half, 5% are spending up, spending off three to $4 billion a month for

[00:05:55] doing nothing. That's the safe trade. Yeah. Yeah. I have to agree with you. And, you know, we do have a critical earnings period that kicks off next week. You mentioned the tech side Tesla will start on Wednesday the 18th with their earnings report. And then the following week,

[00:06:10] you have Apple and Microsoft. It'll be interesting to see if that is going to be the octane that pushes things forward. You know, Lindsay, one thing that we have been, we had Jeffrey Hirsch, who

[00:06:20] is the editor-in-chief of Stock Traders Almanac, and then Sam Stovall, who is a chief market strategist over at CFRA. And both of them really have been spot on with this. They actually said August and September, we will have some downside pressure. And then the fourth quarter,

[00:06:36] we should see things really kick off. And actually Jeff went out to say that we should see the higher highs by the end of December. He's actually very just predicting either the second,

[00:06:48] the he said the last trading day or the second, the last trading day, we'll see the highs of the year. Where's your stance? So because you mentioned when we were talking off camera

[00:06:56] that the consumer might be a bit stretched, you are a big fan of the consumer as everyone knows. But do you think that going forward the consumer is going to have enough octane, at least going into this holiday shopping season? I do think they're going to have enough

[00:07:10] octane going into the holiday shopping season. And Sam's an old pal of mine. I used to work with Sam very closely. So, you know, I worked with his dad. That's how old I am. Okay. Oh my God. I never got to meet Robert, but I've heard stories. No,

[00:07:27] the season out anything is not voodoo. It's for real. But there's a lot of data and history behind it. And October starts to get better than November, December, even better than that. And I do think that the consumer, while they are beginning to feel a little bit stretched

[00:07:42] as stimulus money starts to disappear and, you know, student loans and other other obligations come back online. I think that they are, as long as they have jobs, that is like the key for any recession, right? As long as people have jobs and they're getting

[00:08:00] paid and real wages are finally increasing. And like I said, you're starting to see more people jump back into the jobs market, I think because of that stimulus that is waiting. But you can't ignore the delinquency rates for credit cards and

[00:08:15] auto loans are increasing. If you look at household debt as a percent of income, that is still, it has come back up to pre-pandemic levels. You want to keep an eye on it, make sure it doesn't go up significantly more. Interest rates are really high.

[00:08:31] It has become more difficult to access credit. So these are all real things. But I do think the consumer you saw in the back-to-school shopping season, the consumer who hasn't been purchasing goods, they've been spending all their money on services and experiences.

[00:08:48] They opened their wallets during back-to-school season if there was something exciting to buy. Also they weren't hesitant to spend on their children. And I think you're going to see the same this holiday season. The only question I think for retailers is are they going to have

[00:09:02] the exciting merchandise to sell to their consumers? Because I think so many of these retailers have been downbeat. Their businesses have been very, very weak. You look at the retail stocks. They look terrible. Almost uninvestable. But I do think that it could be a good

[00:09:18] holiday season. I think there'll be some discounts, but I don't think they'll be significant because I don't think they're going to have a lot of product. And I just think the consumer wants to feel good and wants to spend this holiday season. The beginning of the year though,

[00:09:29] I think the consumer is going to be put to the test if economic activity, which we're seeing good green shoots in many different areas. I think manufacturing is turning up. The housing market seems to be turning up. We've seen rolling recoveries all over the place. Manufacturing,

[00:09:47] in fact, was a bright spot within the jobs report today. So I think there's good reason for a rally into the end of the year in addition to fundamentally related and seasonally related. Linda, I'm optimistic Toby. Joe Biden's going to say it's Bidenomics. Do you agree with

[00:10:04] the president? Don't do that political shit with me, pal. All right. Now, the issue I've always been harping on over the last year has been it's still 20% of the highest 20% of the household by income account for 76% of discretionary spending. The upper 20% is doing just fine. And now that

[00:10:25] the stocks took a run for a couple of years, maybe they're down 10% except. So there's but there's no unwealth effects as we had in the past. Number two, I guarantee you everybody, I know with kids is buying their kids really great stuff so they'll leave the freaking house,

[00:10:41] go to school, go to football practice, stay the F away from me because I'm working at home now. And that to me is just a guilt thing. And number two, we got the Taylor and Beyonce economy. They've got movies coming out too. They've got movie theaters.

[00:10:57] I mean, you know, it went when two people move the actual GDP of some cities 13, 14% in the greater Phoenix area here that Taylor spent four days, moved the needle 8.5%. I don't know. And I don't think they're even counting selling drugs because that could have been another

[00:11:16] 4%. Okay. But it's the economy as a consumer is strong because the top 20 or 25% are strong and they're not coming back. Everybody's done their European vacation. All I do is get text from friends saying, Oh my God, I can't believe you could have 40 million people in Venice today,

[00:11:36] but we must because everybody, you know that stuff's going on. Now we're going back to sort of the spending of stuff that we didn't buy during the pandemic. And my other note, Lindsay always is that I don't think people quite realize the United States 96 million

[00:11:52] people in those households is at least getting one pension, one social security check. That's government, that's federal, that's corporate, et cetera. But those checks come every month. They never stopped. And I know people who cut their cost of living and you know, we're now like 75.

[00:12:08] And they're making more money now from their pensions and their social security that they ever were from working. Yeah. So, you know, that's why we're resilient. It's not a magical thing. It's that there's more money going into the economy than it's going out of the economy

[00:12:24] in spending. And maybe it's evened up, but try to get a reservation tonight in Scottsdale. We're going to do a pre-dinner thing. We have to be there at 3.30 to get in. Oh, early bird. Early

[00:12:39] bird. No, it's not an early bird. It's happy hour. Okay? We don't do early bird on here. That's Seinfeld. That's Flavoured. Very good. And also, if I understand you correctly, it's not Bidenomics. It's Taylornomics. That's what's really pushing this thing. That's exactly the

[00:12:55] right. Taylornomics it is. So listen, let's leave it there on this block because coming up after the break, we're going to ask, we've got to ask Lindsey about some specific sectors we want to talk about maybe some areas to stay away from, some areas to concentrate on,

[00:13:09] especially going into the new year because we want to know if that consumer, they are under pressure, what's actually going to look good for Wall Street. But we'll get into that after the

[00:13:18] break. And with us today, we have Lindsey Bell. She's a chief strategist over at 248 Ventures down in Charlotte, North Carolina. And we also have to talk about the Raven Steelersgate game coming up because Lindsey is from Pittsburgh. But we'll get into all of that after the break. Please,

[00:13:31] David. Do you really want that brain damage? Buy, Hold, Sell, brought to you by Crosscheck Management. The Jim Stroud Podcast explores the discoveries and trends forming the future of our lives. Brain to brain communication, robot bosses, microchip implants for workers and artificial

[00:14:04] intelligence replacing human workers are all happening now. If you want to know what's happening next, subscribe now to the Jim Stroud Podcast. Ready to up your game and learn more about the thrilling world of sports betting?

[00:14:20] Introducing Double Down with Breslow, the ultimate podcast about the business of sports gambling. Join me, James Breslow and a long list of expert guests as we dive into the art and science of the sports betting industry. Evolving regulations, technology enhancements in the meteoric rise

[00:14:35] and the number of players makes this sector the fastest growing and most intriguing in the world. Unlock the business secrets from many of the industry's most recognizable C-suite executives, including famous odds makers and influencers. Every episode of Double

[00:14:48] Down with Breslow is packed with insider tips, deeply skilled analysis and in-depth discussions. Don't miss out on the ultimate resource for mastering the business of sports betting. Listen to Double Down with Breslow on the Evergreen Podcast Network or wherever you listen

[00:15:02] to podcasts that's Double Down with Breslow, the business of sports betting podcast. How much do you understand the future of finance? I'm Jim Rousse, a top 10 banking influencer and host of the podcast Banking Transform where we dive deeply into the rapidly

[00:15:18] evolving world of banking and financial technology. Join me as I interview industry experts, thought leaders and innovators as they unravel the latest banking trends, disruptions and game changing technologies reshaping the world of finance. Redefine your understanding of the

[00:15:36] banking ecosystem. Subscribe now to Banking Transform, available wherever you get your podcast and now available on YouTube. Hey this is Jeff Hurst, editor in chief of the Stock Traders Omen Act.

[00:15:49] You got to listen to Todd and Toby on Buy Holds That. Well Blockbuster Jobs Report came out and we actually saw Wall Street traders start selling but we had things turn around. We saw a complete 180.

[00:16:08] All the major averages were up. Actually I think the Dow was only up on I think what 910 to 1% I think Toby but overall Nasdaq was up big, S&P 500 was big, up big and we haven't seen gains

[00:16:20] like that actually since late August. So it was a nice optimistic turnaround and we think hopefully it's the start of some good things to come for the fourth quarter. With us today on Buy Holds

[00:16:31] That we have Lindsay Bell. She is the chief strategist over 248 ventures and Lindsay when we left off at the last block we were talking about really a lot of the good things that were happening with the economy that probably get tossed away because the bearers actually have had

[00:16:45] the run over the last six, seven weeks or so. But what about for this earning season? Are there any specific sectors that you have your eye on that you think might be poised for a breakout?

[00:16:57] Yeah so this earning season the third quarter we're expected to see the fourth quarter in a row of earnings declines. The estimate right now the consensus estimate is for a decline of 1.2%

[00:17:08] that's from S&P and usually it's pretty typical you know analysts at the bar alone that the companies come in and beat and it's very likely that we could see a positive earnings growth quarter.

[00:17:21] As far as sectors go what I like to do is because I've been looking at sector earnings for a really long time like I said I worked with Sam at S&P, Cavalry Q and that was kind of

[00:17:31] like my thing over there. So when I look at the sector earnings I like to look at how the numbers have been moving since the beginning of last quarter and you know a lot of people talk

[00:17:42] about how the second half numbers have been moving higher they've moved higher slightly but the third quarter we're kind of flat with where we were at the beginning of the quarter. Again like I said

[00:17:52] numbers went up but they come back down as the closer you get to earnings because we like to make that far nice and low right? But what I've noticed is that you know the sectors that

[00:18:02] are seeing estimates increase is consumer discretionary of course Tesla is in that number of course Amazon is in that number they account for a big amount of that but the sectors that I find the most interesting is the ones where the numbers are being cut substantially and industrials

[00:18:19] is one of those sectors and I know that the sentiment around the industrial sector right now is super negative obviously higher interest rates not good for the sector and you know the manufacturing drag and weakness in Europe and China although Germany data this morning a

[00:18:36] manufacturing data is finally starting to look like it's turned around to ground month I don't know if it's a trend. Yeah one time it's not a trend but yeah right exactly so we'll see

[00:18:46] but we do have the policy benefits you talked about by the by the Nomics so there is money coming into what will be the manufacturing sector you're seeing construction spending that that is ticking up and it manufacturing within the construction spending number was up 65%

[00:19:04] in August so it's coming off of really low levels and the ISM numbers you know that's another indicator of the health of the sector it's there's still contract contraction contraction excuse me easy for you to say lindsay right exactly it's still in contraction under 50 but

[00:19:21] it's moving up and it's been you know it's 31 months off of its peak so it's about time for this sector to start turning around turning around industrial productions improving I think there's opportunity within this sector the numbers have been cut the sector is underperformed in the

[00:19:38] since the end of July it's down 10 the S&P 500 is down 8% so I just the valuation levels have come down so I just think there might be opportunity an opportunity for this sector

[00:19:50] to beat the estimate so when sentiments this dour I just you know I don't know that the manufacturing sector is going to be completely better here in the next couple months but I think there's

[00:19:59] a well the part of the manufacturing sector that I was capital on was impressed with was because of the IRA act because of the knock on effects of you know 800 billion here 800 billion

[00:20:11] there you know starts to add up and then lending wise the ESG lenders were just going cray-cray well that money just dried up and if you know for instance if you look at

[00:20:21] you know Sunpower you know for instance but you look at any of the solar power plays you know they mostly got crushed simply because a they changed the rules in California on their tax credits and then be it just became frigging more so expensive

[00:20:35] that stuff doesn't pencil out I my advisory firm we represent a company that's raising $220 million to build carbon capture on utilities it's an amazing thing it's about a 50% cash flow business and I had like a 75 million dollars of stuff lined up that that that did not go through

[00:20:53] to you know this week because they had to recalibrate what they think their cost of funds was going to be so so you know we have ceilings and we have floors here and that

[00:21:02] we're sort of in this channel of economic activity the floor is not falling out for all the obvious reasons the ceiling is is limited somewhat the ones that have blown me away Todd

[00:21:14] I mean wait a minute Ozembeq made you know catch-up sales go down 8% and Twinkies and you know Twinkie just sold for for like half of what it sold for in private equity a while ago

[00:21:28] I don't know how many people are on Ozembeq but man that's a shit ton of people that are not buying Doritos or you know Coca-Cola Pines and that was the most intriguing

[00:21:38] numbers I've seen and they're getting that data very you know they get the data 24 by 7 so yeah so taking the Ozembeq economy away from the normal economy and the Taylor Beyoncé economy

[00:21:50] you know what we're seeing is in the United States it's a pain in the ass to travel and because you're in the office three days a week not five you're seeing a real downturn

[00:22:01] that's why you saw these downturns in these domestic airlines and the reverse is I have three people flying into today to uh phoenix we're going to stay over and then they're flying down

[00:22:11] to Rio de Janeiro and one's the ones going to Africa and one's going to China you know they're spending like drunk sailors for crying out loud so that's the bifurcation I mean the

[00:22:22] fancy word is the bifurcation here and the trends you have to really in my mind we have to really go through these trends and look at all the ingredients in the trends because I do think that these these

[00:22:33] changes in the huge changes in the job numbers like three months in a row that means something's f-ed up I mean you don't get you know you don't get that big of a you know change so blah blah

[00:22:47] guess what the sector that's winning is the sector that doesn't need to borrow has subscription revenues not you know you know that piece by piece revenues that has extremely high margins has an incremental sale cost of basically nothing see what does that sound like

[00:23:02] Lindsey yeah yeah well yeah well real quick though you know we had Jim Bianca want to buy hold so and he did bring up a very good point that here you're mentioning Toby about people

[00:23:14] that are flying into your town and then they're going to be flying out to all these great cities you know for vacations and Jim brought that up to us where he said look you have this baby boomer

[00:23:23] generation that is retiring but they're the ones that are actually going out spending money that is holding up the economy and we could talk about tail or nomics all we want but I mean and

[00:23:32] it's great that she's going to move the needle but that's really short term really going forward long term and this goes back to reinforce what Lindsey was saying earlier with the consumer

[00:23:42] is that you still have this consumer generated type of economy the consumer continues to show that hey they do have some cash they might not have the ability to access credit but they are out there

[00:23:54] spending and that is that's the sea it's helping on that GDP number that's pushing boomers don't boomers don't use credit boomers pay a credit card off these on these auto loans is simply that

[00:24:07] you know when you used to buy a 4150 truck and I don't know about you back in Pittsburgh but when I bought the first one it was 22 000 that same truck is 67 000 and you know and the interest

[00:24:21] rates are at 7% or excuse me I mean you know for good decent credit 9% for okay credit 12% who's I didn't understand it did they not read the paper you know the people who underwrite

[00:24:33] those loans didn't they see that interest rates were coming up and and they price based on the 10 year and blah blah blah so we have pockets of stupidity that you know are falling apart but

[00:24:44] but you know economies do I would just go back and say the same thing that with 96 million getting a monthly check with 15 000 boomers turning 65 or 70 every day till 2020 excuse me 2032 and and we

[00:24:58] have a good way to job unless we go to Venezuela and capture three and a half million people and bring them in the United States we're going to have an upside down demand versus supply

[00:25:08] that keeps people working you know so that's reality and what the bear case has always been yeah but you got to add up all these little incremental problems you know and once you add

[00:25:20] them all up it suffocates the economy and yet it's not and I the reason it's not is because everybody's working who can work and you know the we have we have 14 million people here in the United

[00:25:34] States I just saw somebody that sent money home to Venezuela to Mexico to China etc those people depend on are those people working so it's it's it's still the strongest economy in the world

[00:25:48] for a reason it's 74 consumer so we're not like a manufacturing economy and you can't have a recession unless the Fed actually has the stones to take the rates to San Tele land because then you

[00:26:04] would get incremental you know job firings etc but we have two and a half three million jobs extra every freaking month and you know every place I go is assigned particularly a restaurant hiring hiring

[00:26:16] hiring hiring the car wash I was at a couple days ago right come on man right well yeah I mean Jimmy Diamond did say about that he said look maybe they're at the bank should be ready for a 7%

[00:26:29] 10 year yield I mean you have to get the 7 before you get the 13% you know back to the Rick Santelli thing so Lindsay so on that we had you know and what Toby was talking about

[00:26:38] with you know the boomers that are traveling the we saw the leisure and hospitality sector actually they actually increased 96,000 jobs last month I mean clearly this is an area with the airlines

[00:26:50] with the hotels you know cruise ships is that an area that you have your eye on as far as maybe the airlines maybe this their poise for a breakout the airlines are difficult because they're such a

[00:27:02] trading mechanism right and I think there was an analyst today that downgraded the whole sector I think but you know I don't think travel is going to slow I'm with Tobin on that

[00:27:13] anytime I'm at the airport the thing is packed they're here in Charlotte they're just like many airports they're completely redoing them so you know I think the demand for the airlines is still

[00:27:26] there I think oil prices that have been up over the last quarter is a struggle for them right but but prices are coming back down which helps the consumer so I think there's some given

[00:27:35] takes in that sector overall but but I do think within the industrials you just kind of have to look around for the sectors that are going to okay how about some names how about

[00:27:47] some names I don't have any specific names I'm not a stock picker these days sorry okay yeah if you want to tell me to prepare names I would have done that next time next time next time I will do that

[00:28:01] so are there any sectors that you would stay away from though sectors that I would stay away from going into into earnings season yeah you know I think the energy sector has had a big run

[00:28:13] going into the earning season obviously higher oil prices benefits those those stocks very well the oil price is very highly correlated to earnings and we've actually seen earnings estimates move up even though they're supposed to be negative for the quarter so the valuations

[00:28:29] there have gotten a lot richer so I think that there's a lot of there's just high expectations baked into the sector so that's one sector that I'd probably avoid going into earning season the other

[00:28:40] sector though that I'm a little bit curious to see I don't know that I would jump into it before earnings but I'm interested to watch to see how it performs as the financial services sector

[00:28:48] because they haven't quite caught up to you know the beginning of the year before the banking crisis had occurred and what we had seen have seen though is that you know the IPO market

[00:29:00] is seemingly back open despite the downward trend in the S&P 500 that's kind of curious but investment banking is back up and I think they have other other offsets to the business so it's just I

[00:29:14] think that's going to be a curious one to watch and to also listen to because interest rates being this high definitely has certain impacts on their business and it depends on obviously if

[00:29:24] you're your asset having your light and things like that but I'm not putting on the financial here simply because if you take the cost of funds and then you look at their book of business

[00:29:36] they're doing you know the guys who can still, Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade merged in a couple weeks and TD Ameritrade was paying like 25 basis points on your cash and Schwab you know has their SWFFF that's pays five and a quarter well there's you know these the brokerages

[00:29:54] are people are not stupid now and they're taking their money out of their cash account if they haven't yet they're putting it into you know a mutual fund where they make zero money and you know you

[00:30:04] got CDs here that we're selling now at seven and a half percent and if you're selling a CD percent at percent but your average book of loans is paying six and a half percent you don't have to be

[00:30:17] a smart man to know that that's not really good so I'd be very I'd be very picky in there and in Goldman Sachs is a total dumpster fire for a variety of reasons and and and you know Jamie

[00:30:27] just likes to sort of just pour hot water on all the time but but their earnings yeah they did some IPOs they're all underwater they're they're at least 20 down from where they want

[00:30:38] and you know there's a flash in the pan it offsets against firing costs it you know blah blah blah so I don't know man here's where we're making a lot of money uranium uranium processors

[00:30:51] tankers LPG tankers you know the Panama Canal is water so low that there's now 75 tankers sitting on both sides not delivering so now you got to go around you know the Cape of Good Horn you got to go to Suez Canal to get to to get

[00:31:06] propane particularly propane and we're making money in the AI beneficiaries that we didn't chase but we bought them you know when they came back to the world and we're up I think our total

[00:31:17] portfolio is up 35 percent this year by being varied not sector mini sector focused and that's where I have found opportunity Todd but it's it's the macro I could give you five reasons why

[00:31:30] it sucks and I give you five reasons why it doesn't suck you know put them all together it's like in a lock you know it's like a hammer lock right but yeah what my LPG tanker raised

[00:31:41] went from 28,000 a day to 56,000 dollars a day and then they get leased out for two years and I'm getting 25 percent 28 dividends what do I give a crap about what Jamie Dive in sex right and dividend in a city market you know that's a technical term

[00:31:59] fuzzy in a in a go nowhere market what makes a difference I've done this for a long time is dividends and we're getting huge dividends out of you know these bulk shippers LPG shippers

[00:32:15] and I'm talking about 38% dividends because the old days in shipping was the guy's name was Greek non-malabalopolis and as soon as he started making money he went out and bought a whole bunch

[00:32:26] of more boats so when he went to the Greek club in you know Cypress he could say look me I have five new boats right so they would just buy more boats and then they'll think the whole friggin ship

[00:32:37] part of the plan then the whole shipping ship would go to shit and then they give those boats back or they sell them for scrap and the circle was just like this it ain't that way anymore

[00:32:46] the young the kids took over the businesses they they've seen their dads you know go Craig pay dads on third wife anyway so he doesn't like them very much and they um they are making money

[00:32:57] and they stay so they distribute 85% of their cash now that's a good place to hide in my opinion Mr. the showbird that is him that's amazing that's amazing all right well that's great

[00:33:07] Lindsay any final words before we close out the show as we do go into earning season go stealers go sorry go stealers and I think it's just I think it's gonna be a better earning season than people expect okay I like that this is some great final words

[00:33:21] all right well we do have a big match that's right you got that right and we do have the Ravens and the Steelers Lindsay Steelers my Ravens are playing this Sunday and my Baltimore Orioles

[00:33:34] are facing the Texas Rangers in the first game of the next round of the playoffs so it's a lot of optimism to look to go out there so we got a lot to look forward to all right guys so listen

[00:33:43] on behalf of Lindsay Bell Lindsay thank you so much for joining us today on by-home so can't thank you enough really like to have you back and especially as we get past earning season

[00:33:52] and see uh see if the forecast actually holds up and and was uh we'll go from there then but that that's great so uh so on behalf of Lindsay Bell at 248 Ventures and Tobin Smith I am Todd

[00:34:04] Schoenberger thank you once again for joining us on by-home sell take it by-hold sell brought to you by cross check management I want you to smash that like button hi my name is Sara and I want to tell you about my podcast called

[00:34:31] can I offer you some feedback I'm a business consultant and executive coach with over 20 years experience in change management leadership development and naturally providing feedback to high performers my podcast is for those of you who have a complicated relationship with

[00:34:44] feedback whether giving receiving avoiding or seeking feedback is essential for our development in each episode you'll hear from real people across industries with their ideas perspectives and best practices on feedback I'll also be sharing business bites with you simple explanations of organizational tools management techniques and leadership philosophies

[00:35:04] that will help you and your businesses thrive you can listen to can I offer you some feedback on your favorite podcast app or learn more at evergreenpodcasts.com