Erin Gibbs Reveals Market Secrets: Shocking Resurgence in Specialty Retail Revealed! | Buy Hold Sell

[00:00:00] The Fed Meeting Minutes came out today and yeah it was a bit of a yawn but they did come

[00:00:10] up with that one thing word restrictive.

[00:00:12] Wall Street traders decided to sell and lock it.

[00:00:15] Some of the profits that we saw over the last five consecutive days.

[00:00:20] So what does this mean going into December?

[00:00:22] Well we're here to tell you all about it.

[00:00:24] Welcome everyone to Buyhold Cell. going to do, whether it's large-cap equities and small caps. And so as long as we keep seeing that 10-year yield going down, I would very least stabilize that allows for some room for the equities to really grow. And for us to really think about fundamentals and what's going to do well going into 2024. So while there's still some headwinds, it's certainly not a perfect layup.

[00:01:44] The Fed could throw a wrench in at any time. I don't see them wanting to come in and necessarily cut rates just yet, at least well into the second half.

[00:03:03] So you're not nibbling on banks right now, the Fed does not control the two year. The market controls the two year. So the interesting thing on the banks to me is, well, first off, let me tell you about what I use chat GPT now. I take all the Fed speak, and then I throw it into

[00:04:23] a number of those large language models. And then I do too. I do too. There you go. So Aaron, so I mean, one thing that I always like to ask our guests when they come on is power has been very specific regarding that 2% target. Do you think we'll ever hit the 2% target? And if not, then what does that do as far as credibility for the Fed?

[00:05:40] Yeah, I think eventually we will.

[00:05:41] I mean, it's just a matter of time, right?

[00:05:44] Like at some point.

[00:05:45] Yeah, but why? and sometimes you do have to move the target just depending on where you see unemployment. Remember, they've got that dual mandate. So I think it's perfectly possible. Do I think it's gonna happen in 2024? No, not by any means. And as far as I'm willing to do with my forecast, I think 12 is more than enough far enough out.

[00:07:00] And I can respect that.

[00:07:03] But if that does happen, blah, blah. Anyway, Tommy, how many places did you reclaim this week? I was a good week, Toby. We only took back about 25 properties. The foreclosure rate in these regional banks

[00:08:22] that were 85% commercial loans.

[00:08:26] Now, I'll give you another one. mindset in my house got damaged for three and a half million dollars. Well, not really Bob, you know, and let the market tell you what it is. And that to me is the benefit of having these higher mortgage rates because it's bringing perhaps maybe a millennial or heaven forbid a Gen Z will be able to buy a home once. Okay. So Aaron, going into the holiday season, we always had Jeffrey Hirsch showing here as father coined the phrase the Santa Claus

[00:09:41] rally before we go to the break. What do you today if we're going to be name dropping. And we were talking about Kathy Wood coming out with her statement, which I totally freaking agree with, which is basically that the market cap weighted index have completely changed the capital formation structure and capital evaluation.

[00:11:00] Any comments?

[00:11:01] Yeah, I think it is.

[00:11:03] It's interesting when you look at, well,

[00:11:05] particularly with the advent of ETFs that, you know, for a variety of reasons is not growing anywhere near what you used to. But when I look at it every day, basically I say, listen, if the QQQ, the weighted, is over the non-weighted QQQ, then I'm long, not only QQQQ, but I'm long futures, I'm long options with it, I'm juicing that. Because when you go back over the last four years, 10 years, you know, et cetera, every

[00:12:21] time the market caps stay above just the equal cap, that means it's hoovering up the, is just an extraordinarily long period of time for it to be underperforming by 13. Well, quickly, Aaron, my thesis is completely different. My thesis is that when the top 40 stocks, technology stocks, almost all our subscription-based repeating income with all completely different business

[00:13:40] models, much higher gross margins than we've ever had

[00:13:42] in 80s, 90s, 2000s even, that because of the much higher

[00:13:46] margins, the higher E Before we get into that,

[00:15:00] let's leave it there on this block because we'll tease that for the next

[00:15:03] block. There you go, Todd. I'm just essential for our development. In each episode, you'll hear from real people across industries with their ideas, perspectives, and best practices on feedback. I'll also be sharing business fights with you. Simple explanations of organizational tools, management techniques, and leadership philosophies that will help you and your businesses thrive.

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[00:17:42] available now on Amazon and at finer bookstores near you. We're down today, but not by that much. We actually stop or snap the five day of five for second winning days. We've seen a wall creep, but after the Fed minutes came out, a little bit of pessimism, pessimism, but nothing is probably gonna stay for the long term. Welcome, we have a witness today, Erin Gibbs.

[00:19:00] She is the CIO of Made Street Asset Management.

[00:19:03] I know, I'm on tongue-tied today.

[00:19:04] Thanksgiving week, I mean, there's so much celebrating

[00:19:07] to go around, but Erin got that earnings quality. So you have- And it got the software too, Aaron. I mean, that's right. And then software. So when you want the best of breed to be doing well,

[00:20:20] and if their report was really negative,

[00:20:22] then I'd say, yeah, get out,

[00:20:24] because if the best can't do it,

[00:20:25] then who else is type of thing. with the big hyperscalers that they didn't have any choice for, you know, 18 months, the Nvidia chip, because they had the Kudos software system. If you didn't have it, you didn't have hyperscalers. So it looks to me like we own AMD, we own Intel for a variety of reasons, but we really own Taiwan semiconductor because they, they make all those chips and the more we get in there.

[00:21:42] And then the other threat I guess against GPUs

[00:21:45] is that larger companies are starting to say, I think that insight is phenomenal, but it's, like I said, I really use NVIDIA as that leading indicator of the space and where the bar is set for the rest of the world. Well, how about SMCI, for instance, the biggest NVIDIA buyer. They're the ones who build the supercomputer now that they are preparing their San Francisco offices for open AI employees. So it remains to be seen how many people actually jump ship and go over to Microsoft. But Aaron, let's pivot out of this though on the tech side because I know you're a fan

[00:24:20] of tech. But what other sectors are you a big money. And we are seeing that some of it is actually going towards not just experiences, but apparel

[00:25:42] and stuff. They're buying stuff again. And, I have to go to the contrary indicator too, at our Discord trading room. I have a couple of real know-it-all guys who I love, but they're know-it-all. And they're... Are they named Toby? No, their name's Eddie Carter and a couple of them.

[00:27:02] Oh. And they try to be a bigger know-it-, anything that you have to finance. So, you know, these big purchases that you might finance like, you know, cars, even refrigerator, that type of thing, anything that has some storm enhancements, those are the ones that are going to do the best. Also, you know, and again, again, anything that has to do with the home,

[00:28:20] it's these smaller purchases that says that our people are really willing to spend up.

[00:28:24] And then we even see that trickle into some of the luxury brands where Okay, fair enough. I probably am talking too much about a handbags for a fine show, but it's too loud. I'm just too loud. No, this is great, actually. I know our audience likes it, too. We mostly have a testosterone loaded show, so it's always great to get a song from actually understand something other than killing people.

[00:29:40] Yeah, right.

[00:29:42] So what about, that's on the retail side, though.

[00:29:45] What about the big box retailers? They're taking the GLP one inhibitors, but they're going to another store, okay? But here they're coming. Come to our local, come to our local Trader Joe's. I've heard these stores more crowded in my life. Tell me about it. I was at a Trader Joe's on Saturday. It was jam-packed. It was worse than the track. Couldn't get over how crowded it was. Of course, in the track.

[00:31:00] Come on, come on.

[00:31:01] I'm better off.

[00:31:02] I'm pretty chilly.

[00:31:03] I'm not going to go to the grocery store.

[00:31:04] I'm pretty chilly, silly, silly, silly, silly, little win.

[00:31:06] That's nuts.

[00:31:07] All right. I think it's a little questionable. Is it going to be an outperformer versus the index? It's getting close. To me, it's getting close to fair evaluation. But airlines is a special case because it's really an oil play at this point. Yeah. And also, obviously, the cost per mile with the new labor agreements is up 14.5%. And they've raised prices. But I'm with you there.

[00:32:21] I'm never making an airline fan. Unless weird day bars. So, you know, don't. Hello. Yeah, we have delivery. Yeah. You don't buy. He's a dog. He's a long door dash. Okay. That only still in the stock. She's a customer. First direct. And we first longed her first. Oh, fresh direct. Okay. That's right. That's right.

[00:33:40] That's right.

[00:33:41] No, I don't go to grocery stores.

[00:33:42] Yeah.

[00:33:43] That's awesome.

[00:33:44] You used to live there.

[00:33:45] What are you now?

[00:33:46] Did you forget?

[00:33:47] I pressed direct.